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Ruth King

Weak consumption, economy could sink Trump re-election bid David Goldman

https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/11/article/weak-consumer-economic-slump-could-sink-trump-re-election-bid/

US President Donald Trump’s case for re-election in 2020 comes down to his economic record. New forecasts from two Federal Reserve banks, though, warn of near-recession conditions just as the presidential election campaign is getting underway.

Both the New York Federal Reserve “Nowcast” model and the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s “GDPNow” model predict that US economic growth will slow to barely above zero during 2019’s fourth quarter. Both models translate the latest data releases from government agencies into overall GDP growth. The NY Fed’s forecast stands at 0.4% annualized GDP growth and the Atlanta Fed model shows just 0.3%. This degree of convergence is rare, and the dip from an estimated 1.9% growth rate during the third quarter to 0.3%-0.4% is alarming.

Eighteen months ago the Trump Administration advertised the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s forecast as proof of its success. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin told CNBC in June 2018, “The Atlanta Fed is projecting 4.7% [GDP growth]. I have no idea whether it will be that high. But a year ago, people were laughing when we talked about 3% GDP. We have an economy that’s here because of the president’s tax plan and the president’s regulatory relief.”

The administration isn’t bragging about the Atlanta Fed’s present forecast of just 0.3% annualized GDP growth.

Since then GDP growth has fallen below 2%, as businesses cancel capital investment plans in response to uncertainty about global supply chains, following the Trump Administration tariff war on China and threatened bans on technology exports to Chinese companies. Consumer spending kept the economy growing despite shrinking CapEx and a manufacturing recession that is now in its third quarter. At just 12% of GDP, the manufacturing recession isn’t enough to tip the overall economy into recession.

Five Lines of Questioning Would End Impeachment Robert B. Charles

https://amac.us/five-lines-of-questioning-would-end-impeachment/?campaign=daily-news-email

With the right witnesses, five lines of questioning will end this impeachment.  Here they are.

First, federal statutes and the US Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) prohibit federal officials from selling influence to profit relatives. Example:  5 CFR 2635.702 states an official “shall not use his public office for his own private gain… or for the private gain of … relatives.”    

Accordingly, Joe Biden and his son, have answering to do.  Did actions of either – in Ukraine or China – amount to selling influence?  Did the younger leverage his father’s position for money? Did the Vice President know?

When Vice President Biden flew his son to Ukraine and China, after which his son secured large contracts, did the older Biden see the conflict?  Did the elder Biden facilitate those contracts?  When Vice President Biden insisted a prosecutor be fired who was investigating a company on whose board his son sat, under penalty of lost aid, was that illegal?

The answer to each question is: probably yes.  

WAYNE ALLYN ROOT: The Real Ukraine Scandal Leads to the Clinton Foundation

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/

‘The real story is about the  Clintons , the Clinton Foundation, Obama, Pelosi, Kerry and many other powerful Democrats. Their fingerprints are all over Ukraine. Forget about the high-paying jobs for their family members. This goes much deeper. touched the third rail of Democrat/Deep State/DC Swamp politics. He asked Ukraine’s President to investigate massive Democrat corruption and theft of taxpayer money.

In my opinion, Hillary was running her version of the Gambino Crime Family slush fund. Jimmy Hoffa and the teamsters had nothing on the  Clinton’s . And everyone in the Democrat Party and Deep State got a piece, to insure no one would rat.

 

Ukraine is the key to this massive Democrat scandal. But Biden was just the tip of the iceberg. This is all about the Obama and Clinton Crime Families.

 

Suddenly alarm bells went off at the DNC. I believe Trump is about to expose the biggest scandal in US political history. Trump is about to put powerful people in prison. Trump is about to destroy the Democrat Party and expose the Deep State. Trump is not getting thrown out of office. Not with his remarkable record of economic success for the average American worker. Not going to happen.

 

63 million Trump voters will insure that never happens. We have your back, Mr. President.’

Horowitz reportedly finds FBI lawyer falsified FISA doc; WaPo stealth-deletes Strzok connection By Gregg Re | Fox News Facebook Twitter Flipboard Comments Print Email

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/horowitz-finds-evidence-fbi-employee-altered-russia-probe-document

Justice Department Inspector General Michael Horowitz has found evidence that an FBI lawyer manipulated a key investigative document related to the FBI’s secretive surveillance of a former Trump campaign adviser — enough to change the substantive meaning of the document, according to multiple reports.

The show-stopping development comes as Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., told Fox News that Horowitz’s comprehensive report on allegations of Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) warrant abuse against former Trump campaign aide Carter Page will be released on Dec. 9. “That’s locked,” Graham said.

The new evidence concerning the altered document, which pertained to the FBI’s FISA court warrant application to surveil Page, is expected to be outlined in Horowitz’s upcoming report. CNN first reported the news, which was largely confirmed by The Washington Post.

But the Post, hours after publishing its story, conspicuously removed the portion of its reporting that the FBI employee involved worked “beneath” Peter Strzok, the FBI’s since-fired head of counterintelligence. The Post did not offer an explanation for the change, which occurred shortly after midnight. Earlier this week, the DOJ highlighted a slew of anti-Trump text messages sent by Strzok when he was leading the Hillary Clinton email investigation and the probe into the Trump campaign.

“The person under scrutiny has not been identified but is not a high-ranking official — they worked beneath former deputy assistant director Peter Strzok, according to people familiar with the investigation who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss material that has not yet been made public,” The Post wrote in its now-deleted paragraph.

Fiona Hill (and Dems) ignore the serious evidence of Ukrainian 2016 meddling By Andrew McCarthy

https://nypost.com/2019/11/21/fiona-hill-and-dems-ignore-the-serious-evidence-of-ukrainian-2016-meddling/

In her testimony before the House impeachment inquiry, Fiona Hill, formerly of the National Security Council, took great pride in telling lawmakers she was a nonpartisan intelligence professional. She then labored mightily in service of a Democratic political narrative.

Specifically, Hill conflated two separate theories of Ukrainian collusion in the 2016 election. One of these is discredited, the other is quite viable. Hill helped the Democrats suggest that they have both been debunked.

Hill is too smart not to have grasped the effect of her testimony. This is exactly the kind of cynicism that fuels concerns about the unaccountable “deep state.”

To be sure, President Trump is largely to blame for propagating the discredited Ukraine theory. It holds that, somehow, it was Ukraine, rather than Russia, that interfered in the 2016 election by cyber-espionage against Democratic email accounts.

This is such a loopy theory, it defies clear explanation. Suffice it to say that it involves suspicions that a hacked DNC server is hidden in Ukraine. Perhaps, the speculation runs, it was Ukrainian operatives, not Russian ones, who were the culprits.

It is a fringe theory. No one who has closely followed the collusion caper puts any stock in it. Regrettably, the president is a hospitable audience for frivolous theories that cast doubt on Russia’s culpability, which he wrongly fears casts doubt on his legitimacy.

In his July 25 conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Trump appears to have pressed this theory about the server. He wanted Kiev to look into it, even though it is the consensus of American intelligence agencies that Moscow was behind the cyber hijinks.

In her testimony, Hill observed that Russia, which she rightly regards as our strategic rival, is delighted by the promotion of this debunked server theory. Anything that could undermine ties between Washington and Kiev promotes Moscow’s interest — putting in doubt our support for a former Soviet captive state that revanchist Russia has under siege.

Exclusive: Former FBI lawyer under investigation after allegedly altering document in 2016 Russia probe By Katelyn Polantz and Evan Perez, CNN

https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/21/politics/fbi-fisa-russia-investigation/index.html?ofs=

Washington (CNN)A former FBI lawyer is under criminal investigation after allegedly altering a document related to 2016 surveillance of a Trump campaign adviser, several people briefed on the matter told CNN.

The possibility of a substantive change to an investigative document is likely to fuel accusations from President Donald Trump and his allies that the FBI committed wrongdoing in its investigation of connections between Russian election meddling and the Trump campaign.
The finding is expected to be part of Justice Department Inspector General Michael Horowitz’s review of the FBI’s effort to obtain warrants under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act on Carter Page, a former Trump campaign aide. Horowitz will release the report next month.
Horowitz turned over evidence on the allegedly altered document to John Durham, the federal prosecutor appointed early this year by Attorney General William Barr to conduct a broad investigation of intelligence gathered for the Russia probe by the CIA and other agencies, including the FBI. The altered document is also at least one focus of Durham’s criminal probe.

It’s unknown how significant a role the altered document played in the FBI’s investigation of Page and whether the FISA warrant would have been approved without the document. The alterations were significant enough to have shifted the document’s meaning and came up during a part of Horowitz’s FISA review where details were classified, according to the sources.

DOJ watchdog finds security risks in FBI handling of confidential sources

Some witnesses who have been interviewed in Horowitz’s investigation have said they expect the inspector general to find mistakes in the FBI’s handling of the FISA process, but that those mistakes do not undermine the premise for the FBI’s investigation.

How the Prince Andrew fiasco has exposed the palace power struggle between the heirs and the spares Camilla Tominey

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/royal-family/2019/11/21/prince-andrew-fiasco-has-exposed-palace-power-struggle-heirs/

There has been an almighty power struggle going on all week and it has got nothing to do with the general election.

As Boris Johnson and his rivals have been relegated to the inside pages with the Duke of York sex scandal continuing to dominate the headlines, the brutal world of Westminster appears to have nothing on the internal politics of the Royal Family.

As the driving force behind her second, and some say ‘favourite’ son stepping back from public duties for the “foreseeable future”, the Queen’s decisive action in a face-to-face meeting at Buckingham Palace on Wednesday serves as a salient reminder that the royals will stop at nothing to preserve the institution of monarchy – even at the expense of those in it.

Alarm bells were said to be raised behind palace gates when the question of whether the House of Windsor was still fit for purpose came up during Tuesday night’s ITV debate. 

The problem was not Jeremy Corbyn’s “in need of improvement” response or even the lacklustre reaction to Mr Johnson’s claim that the institution of monarchy was “beyond reproach” – but rather that the topic was even up for discussion in the first place. 

US-China conflict reaches fever pitch as Trump prepares to sign Hong Kong rights bill Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/11/21/us-china-conflict-reaches-fever-pitch-trump-prepares-sign-hong/

Congress passes bill that will remove special status if ‘one nation, two systems’ model is overthrown

The US diplomatic gun is locked and loaded. Both houses of Congress have passed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act by a veto-proof majority. 

The bill sets in motion a legal process that would – if later triggered – lead to Hong Kong losing its special status under US law and its recognition as an independent member of the World Trade Organisation.

The enclave would be treated like any other Chinese city, posing an existential threat to its business model as a global financial and trading hub. The American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong said it feared “unintended, counterproductive” consequences that could spin out on control.

President Donald Trump is expected to sign it by the end of the week. He has little choice even if this complicates his quest for a skinny ‘Phase One’ trade deal with China before Christmas.  

“I don’t think Trump wants the bill because he has never shown any interest in human rights and it is happening at a very difficult moment, but he’ll have to accept it,” said William Reinsch, ex-chief of the US National Foreign Trade Council.

Sweden: The Price of Migration by Judith Bergman

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15081/sweden-migration-price

“The industries have a very limited need for people without experience and education.” — Johanna Odö, municipal councilor; Aftonbladet, October 3, 2019.

Now, to save money, the Ystad municipality will no longer serve hot meals to the elderly and cleaning services will be limited to once every three weeks.

Motala municipality had said that it would lower the heat in buildings managed by the city, including old age homes, to save money. “We will take care of the elderly; they will not be freezing, they can have blankets,” the message went.

Meanwhile, in June, the Swedish parliament voted in favor of a law that is likely to increase immigration to Sweden based on family reunification.

New figures from the European Union’s statistical bureau, Eurostat, show that unemployment is rising in Sweden. According to Eurostat, unemployment there was 7.4% in August, whereas the EU average for August was 6.2 %. This leaves Sweden, on Eurostat’s unemployment ranking of countries, at number 24 out of 28. According to the daily newspaper Expressen, one of the main reasons for Sweden’s high unemployment happens to be the large number of immigrants that the country has taken in.

As late as February 2019, Sweden’s Minister of Justice and Migration, Morgan Johansson, mocked those who worried that migration would lead to mass unemployment: “Do you remember when the doomsayers were squawking that migration would lead to mass unemployment?,” he tweeted. “Now: unemployment continues to fall among foreign-born and young people. For domestic-born it is at a record low”.

He cannot mock anyone now. In 2013, Social Democratic leader Stefan Löfven, who has been prime minister since 2014, said he would ensure that by 2020, Sweden would have the lowest unemployment in the EU. That is evidently not about to happen.

The disproportionately large influx of people who do not have the educational or language skills to work in the Swedish economy was never likely to help bring about the lowest unemployment in the EU. As previously reported by Gatestone, the small Swedish city of Filipstad exemplifies a place where the influx of non-Western migrants, some of them illiterate, with little or no education, has meant that the unemployment rate in that group is at 80%: they depend for their livelihoods on the municipality’s social welfare program.

Meet NATO’s New Command Whose Job Is to Stop a Russian Attack A lot of work to do. by David Axe

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/meet-natos-new-command-whose-job-stop-russian-attack-97932

Key point: NATO needs to ensure it can quickly rush forces to the poorly-defended Baltic states.

NATO has stood up a new command whose job it is to speed alliance troops and tanks around Europe in order to defend against a Russian invasion.

The new Joint Support and Enabling Command, based in Ulm, Germany, achieved initial operating capability on Sept, 17, 2019, NATO spokesperson Oana Lungescu announced.

The command has its work cut out for it. A recent report revealed just how vulnerable NATO’s eastern flank is to a sudden Russian assault — and how important armored forces could be in the alliance’s defensive efforts.

Russia keeps around 760 tanks in units within quick striking distance of NATO’s Baltic members. NATO countries together keep around 130 tanks in the same region — and around 90 of those are American M-1s on their temporary rotation.

In 2016 RAND war-gamed a Russian invasion of the Baltics. In RAND’s scenario, the Russian forces quickly overrun lightly-armed NATO forces. The Western alliance quickly deploys helicopters and air-mobile troops to confront the Russian advance. But NATO tanks are too slow to arrive.

“What cannot get there in time are the kinds of armored forces required to engage their Russian counterparts on equal terms, delay their advance, expose them to more-frequent and more-effective attacks from air- and land-based fires and subject them to spoiling counterattacks,” RAND explained.

Across NATO there’s no shortage of tanks and other heavy forces. But very few of NATO’s tanks are available on short notice to defend the alliance’s eastern flank. RAND counted just 129 NATO tanks that realistically could participate in a “short-notice Baltic scenario.”