https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2018/12/27/isaac-
In many ways, the world may seem more like 1984 today than it did in 1984.Electronic surveillance of our every keystroke. Shifting international alliances. Authoritarian risings. Fake News!
The dystopian world that George Orwell imagined 35 years before the year 1984 seems closer to today’s reality than it did in his 1949 book’s namesake year.
But on Dec. 31, 1983 — as the world was about to ring in that Orwellian year — another noted author took a crack at predicting what the world would look like a further 35 years hence, in 2019. And how well science fiction writer Isaac Asimov did in that Toronto Star special can now be examined as that year dawns.
Asimov — who died in 1992 — predicated all his New Year’s Eve forecasts on the assumption that the world could avert a nuclear war in the coming decades. And even as the intervening Cold War thaw appears to be refreezing — with a new nuclear arms race in the offing — our species did manage to avoid annihilation.
Thus we survive to gauge the accuracy of Asimov’s predictions in his other two essay themes: computerization and space utilization.
And it appears he was no Nostradamus.
For example, while he did predict there would be a space station up and running by 2019, planning for that international effort had been underway for years by the time of his writing.
Outside of some unmanned probes, however, the station was as far afield as humans would venture into the heavens over the next three and a half decades. And his fanciful visions of large mining projects on the moon — let alone the massive, orbiting structures they’d provide materials for — seem loony in hindsight.
On computers, he was equally hit-and-miss, says York University computer scientist Zbigniew Statchniak.
To be fair, Statchniak says, computing was advancing at such a speed as 1984 dawned that predicting where it might go would have been next to impossible.
“Having said that,” he adds, “I think he got easy things right and difficult things wrong.”