RUTHFULLY YOURS

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2018/09/bound_for_a_runoff_down_in_brazil.html

Down in Brazil, there is a presidential election in a few weeks. The election is happening in the context of a slow-growing economy, corruption battles, violence out of control, and the stabbing of a presidential candidate.

The latest is from Reuters:

Fernando Haddad, the presidential candidate for Brazil’s leftist Workers Party (PT), is closing the gap with poll-leading far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro for an Oct. 7 first-round vote and would beat him in a runoff, a survey released Monday showed.

Bolsonaro held steady at 28 percent of voter approval in the first round as compared to the same Ibope poll released last week. Haddad gained three percentage points to hit 22 percent, according to the survey, released by the Estado de S.Paulo newspaper and the Globo TV network.

We will see.

I did speak with a friend down in Sao Paulo yesterday. He basically agrees with the poll and the suggestion that Haddad would win the runoff. At the same time, my friend said that the issues, the violence and corruption, favor Mr. Bolsonaro.

It’s true that Bolsonaro has a little Trump in him and that he often speaks without thinking. He has promised a no-nonsense policy against criminal elements.

Of course, the bottom line is how the other candidates react and who they endorse in the second round.

So let’s come back to this after the first round in a couple of weeks.

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2018/09/australia_the_south_pacific_frontline_in_the_battle_against_foreign_interference.html

When many Americans think of Australia, things like white sandy beaches, kangaroos, and Steve Irwin come to mind – an image that is at times more of a caricature than an actual country.

What actually goes on in Australia, especially in its politics, is an unknown to most people not from the Land Down Under. It’s usually not that well covered by the media, especially since the advent of Brexit and Donald Trump’s presidency.

There is, however, an extremely dangerous trend in Australian politics that should concern lawmakers and political regulatory bodies across the democratic world. That’s the foreign interference and strong-arming within Australia’s political sphere.

Americans are most familiar with the foreign interference in the democratic process stemming from the allegations of Russian interference in the U.S. election of 2016. But in Australia, politicians at both a state and a federal level have been forced to resign after being caught in involvement with companies or individuals with ties to the Communist Party of China.

The Chinese influence in Australian politics is already very real, as the country relies heavily on China economically for its continued prosperity.

Australia managed to dodge the “Great Recession” largely as a result of Chinese domestic stimulus measures that boosted the Australian resources and mining sectors. The Chinese stimulus allowed Australia to not only avoid recession, but enjoy an economic boom while the rest of the world suffered through the global financial crisis. Since then, sectors of the Australian economy have become more and more dependent on Chinese consumers and capital.

In recent years, Australia has undergone a major apartment-building boom underpinned by Chinese investors purchasing the properties. The boom has become so large as a result that Australian cities have more large cranes working on construction projects than the United States, despite having less than 8% of the U.S. population. In addition to that, Australian universities have become increasingly reliant on Chinese students, with 31% of the 525,054 foreign students in the country coming from China.

Director of the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) Focus Group Michael Fay said: “[I]f anything happens to the Chinese market, such as with a downturn in the economy or problems with visas, Australia would be very exposed.”

In essence, Australia is economically addicted to the capital and revenue Chinese consumers can provide, giving China incredible leverage over a country that has enjoyed economic prosperity without a recession for over 26 years.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/13023/help-iran-people

Are the Iranian people actually seeking regime change? If they are, why have past protests failed and how can current demonstrations have a better chance of success?
Currently, Iranians who oppose the Islamist regime are an unarmed population, bereft of leadership, and faced down by hardened militia units that are ultra-loyal to the economic benefits of backing the theocrats in power.
The tragic reality, however, is that without further help to the people of Iran who want an end to repressive laws — as well as to the regime’s squandering of money domestically for corruption and repression, and abroad to fund terrorism and aggression — we may not see a change either in Iran’s regime or its behavior.

During a recent speech at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in California, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo hinted that America would support the Iranian people should they seek to replace their regime. “While it is ultimately up to the Iranian people to determine the direction of their country,” Pompeo said, “the United States…. will support [their] long-ignored voice…”

What “direction,” then, is that? Are the Iranian people actually seeking regime change? If they are, why have past protests failed and how can current demonstrations have a better chance of success?

Some commentators are suggesting that today’s demonstrations indicate that the regime of the mullahs may be in trouble. This idea is partly based on the recollection that the general structure of Tehran and other cities remain much as it did in the late 1970s, when merchants played a critical role in the overthrow of the late Shah Reza Pahlavi.[1] Today, however, the political power, financial strength and religious influence of the bazaar class is much reduced.[2]

Within two years of establishing the Islamic Republic, however, the theocratic regime carried out a massive purge of politically active businessmen in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar;[3] presently, economic influence is in the hands of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and ideological theocrats affiliated with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. The IRGC is now a powerful economic conglomerate in Iran, with IRGC veterans heading major industries. IRGC retirees are able to take economic advantage of their political contacts in the Majles, Iran’s parliament, many of whose members are also IRGC veterans.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/europes-bad-iran-bet-1537916797

President Trump will lead a United Nations Security Council session Wednesday on weapons of mass destruction and Iran, and European leaders are signaling that they’re more than willing to disagree with the U.S. Meanwhile, Europeans are looking for ways to duck U.S. financial sanctions—without much success.

On Monday European Commission foreign-affairs chief Federica Mogherini unveiled a new “special-purpose vehicle” to facilitate trade with Iran after U.S. sanctions go back into effect in November. Restoring Iran’s access to the global financial system and trade was a central plank of the 2015 nuclear pact. Ms. Mogherini and the three European co-signers of the deal—Germany, France and Britain—have been scrambling to keep those commercial benefits and they view trade as the main carrot for Tehran to comply.

Recent months have shown what a diplomatic mistake this has been. European companies have withdrawn from Iran to avoid U.S. sanctions, despite the European Union’s so-called blocking statute barring compliance with this U.S. pressure. Access to the U.S. market and financial system are too important no matter how noisily European diplomats complain about the Trump Administration.

Brussels also hasn’t found a financial workaround for Iranian trade. Vague proposals to establish direct links between Iran’s central bank and its European counterparts to move euros have faltered in part because European central banks and finance ministries worry about Iran’s money laundering.