RUTHFULLY YOURS

https://spectatorworld.com/topic/the-next-phase-of-the-ukraine-war/

The fog of war doesn’t just apply to generals, sergeants, and privates. It applies to strategists and outside observers, including the best-informed journalists on the ground. All are swamped by a confusing barrage of information, some accurate, some not, none of it complete or definitive. That’s why, after over a month of fighting in Ukraine, it helps to step back, consider the basic outcomes, and try to project what will happen next.

Remember, though, the “fog of war” applies to these assessments, too.

First, let’s clear away Russian misinformation. The Kremlin’s recent claim that their main goal was never to seize Kyiv but always to take eastern Ukraine is simply false. They wanted both and the whole Black Sea coast, but their main goal was always to seize Ukraine’s capital, to kill or capture President Volodymyr Zelensky and his government, and to install a puppet regime, much like the one headed by Aleksandr Lukashenko in Belarus.

That ambitious plan failed for two reasons. First, Ukraine’s fierce and effective resistance stopped the Russian blitzkrieg on the capital city and began systematically destroying the invader’s stalled forces. Today, Ukraine is actually pushing those forces back, to the surprise of both Russian military planners and US intelligence analysts, who expected a swift and successful Russian campaign to take Kyiv.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18383/china-undercuts-russia-sanctions

“For China… the Ukrainian crisis provided a unique opportunity to increase its access to Russia’s natural resources, particularly gas, gain contracts for infrastructure projects and new markets for Chinese technology, and turn Russia into a junior partner in the relationship between the two countries.” — Report by the European Council on Foreign Relations, February 2015.

In addition to undermining sanctions through the commodities trade, China is possibly also helping Russia hide its money.

Despite all of the above, the Biden administration continues to talk about China as if proof were still needed that it is undercutting sanctions on Russia.

China has clearly been giving material help to Russia. So where are the “consequences”?

The closest that the U.S. has come to going beyond words is the announcement, along with other G7 leaders, of an “enforcement initiative” to prevent Russia from evading sanctions, but it is — presumably deliberately — unclear what that initiative actually entails.

“The trade and the purchase of long-term energy supplies undercut the sanctions, because it shows Putin he has got somebody in his corner for the next five years or more.” — Michael Pillsbury, author of The Hundred-Year Marathon, Fox News, March 21, 2022.

The Biden administration, by repeatedly threatening “consequences” and issuing “warnings” to China, “if” it helps Russia undercut sanctions, merely continues to project indecision, weakness and lack of leadership …[and] will only result in the additional loss of credibility and the further degradation of U.S. deterrence to the detriment of the West.

Despite tough Western sanctions on Russia, President Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine has now lasted for more than a month and Putin is showing no signs of backing down. The power helping him to withstand the effects of the sanctions and continue the war is Russia’s most powerful ally — China.

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2022/04/america_and_the_two_chinas.html

Credible sources suggest that Xi Jinping plans to attack Taiwan in the fall. Indeed, this is inevitable given the war in Ukraine. However, any attack would be the end of a very long path through Chinese and American history.

To fully understand what is playing out, one must look at the past to understand how Taiwan came into being, what Mao Zedong’s goals were, what President Nixon’s rapprochement offered, and how Xi Jinping views China’s role in Southeast Asia.

China was ruled by the Manchu’s Qing Dynasty for 267 years before its overthrow in 1911. This was followed for a half-century by military failures, revolts, famines, and civil wars. The imperial regime had also signed a series of unequal treaties with Western countries. Since the Opium War, successive demands from Western powers and Japan had left China with a paralyzed economy.

At age 19, Chiang Kai-shek (1887-1975) expressed his strong nationalistic feelings with a desire to “expel the Manchu Qing and to restore China.” He prepared for a military career at the Baoding Military Academy. He continued with four years of training at the Imperial Japanese Army Academy in Tokyo.

Returning to China, Chiang joined the National Revolutionary Army—the military arm of the nationalist Kuomintang (which Sun Yat-sen founded). In 1926, Chiang became the army’s commander-in-chief, known as “ Generalissimo.” It was Chiang who ended the Civil War (1916-28) and reunited China. In 1928, he formed the Republic of China (Taiwan included) As head of state, Chiang followed Sun Yat-sen’s Chinese version of Abraham Lincoln’s governing philosophy for America: “government of the people, by the people, for the people…”