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French Elections: The Bad And The Not So Bad by Amir Taheri

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18478/french-elections-not-so-bad

At the other end of the spectrum, Macron’s camp branded Le Pen as “extreme-right” or even “fascist”, labels that may suit juvenile student politics but need to be used with care by adults. The millions who voted for Le Pen could not be branded as “fascist”. Many with whom I talked turned out to be responsible citizens in a justified or unjustified angry mood for various reasons. Instead of dismissing them with a label, Macron and the governing elite must identify and try to address the sources of that anger.

Democracy is a substitute for civil war. In it, ballots replace bullets. But they must also replace hurtful words and arrogant gestures.

“Like the remake of a bad movie,” says a voter in Sarcelles, one of Paris’s many “underprivileged” suburbs that, having formed the “red belt” of the French capital for decades, have now shifted to far-right populism.

The second and final round of the French presidential election last Sunday was, indeed, a remake of the contest five years ago when a then little known Emmanuel Macron handily defeated the far-right champion Marine Le Pen on her second bid for supreme power. But whether or not it was a bad remake remains to be seen.

In groundbreaking step, Muslim delegation participates in 2022 March of the Living “This is crazy what we’re doing. We’re in Auschwitz, a delegation of Arabs and Israelis. I hope that in 10 to 20 years’ time, this won’t be news,” said Rawan Osman. By David Isaac

https://www.jns.org/in-groundbreaking-step-muslim-delegation-participates-in-2022-march-of-the-living/

A Muslim group including participants from across the Arab world took part for the first time in the International March of the Living, the annual 1.9-mile walk from the concentration camp at Auschwitz to the extermination camp of Birkenau in Poland to commemorate the victims of the Holocaust. The precedent-setting move was the brainchild of Sharaka, an organization of young Israeli and Gulf State leaders formed in the wake of the Abraham Accords.

The 18-member delegation, including social influencers, professors and journalists, came from Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Syria, Lebanon, Morocco, Turkey and Israel, said Amit Deri, founder and CEO of Sharaka.

Deri said the idea to participate in the March of the Living, which takes place annually on Israel’s Yom Hashoah, or Holocaust Martyrs’ and Heroes’ Remembrance Day, came to fruition gradually, starting with a trip in December 2020 for young Arab influencers to Israel, in which they visited Yad Vashem, Israel’s official memorial to the Holocaust.

“After that visit, they said they wanted to listen to a Holocaust survivor, who would tell them the story. So last year, we held a Zoom event with more than 250 people from all over the Arab world. It was during COVID-19, and we couldn’t come here,” Deri told JNS on the grounds of Auschwitz.

“We promised that the next time it would be possible to be here on Holocaust Remembrance Day, we would come,” he said.

Deri attributes the timing of the visit to the Abraham Accords agreements signed between Israel and several Muslim states in the fall of 2020. “It has allowed people to express themselves. They feel more comfortable than they did three or four years ago,” he said, adding that the Muslim participants are “definitely” taking a risk and could face backlash in their home countries. “They’re brave to do it, and we appreciate them for doing so.”

Putin’s Genocide on Holocaust Memorial Day by Lawrence Kadish

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18474/putin-genocide-on-holocaust-memorial-day

If there are aliens who have taken a road trip to our remote part of the Milky Way they must be deeply appalled at what they continue to find here – most recently the calculated campaign by Putin’s Russian Army to murder civilians in Ukraine.

If those aliens have conquered time and space they would have found that their periodic visits have witnessed one form of genocide or another through virtually every century of human “civilization” on this globe.

Before going any further, it would be wise to define the term. Wikipedia says “Genocide is the intentional destruction of a people — usually defined as an ethnic, national, racial, or religious group — in whole or in part. Raphael Lemkin coined the term in 1944,[1][2] combining the Greek word γένος (genos, “race, people”) with the Latin suffix -caedo (“act of killing”).[3]”

Historians suggest that they can chronicle the first act of genocide, Rome’s march against Carthage, with Marcus Cato quoted as justifying the coming massacre by asking his fellow Roman Senators, “Who are the ones who have waged war most cruelly? … Who are the ones who have ravaged Italy? The Carthaginians.”

In the Roman Legion siege that followed, historians say that at least 150,000 Carthaginians perished, many of them civilians, with one Roman remarking that “the number of deaths was incredibly high…”

The tyrants that followed throughout history would probably describe that butcher’s bill as just one day’s worth of work: there would be much worse to follow. Historians say we still do not appreciate the ruthless brutality of Genghis Khan.

EU-China Relations: “Downward Spiral” by Soeren Kern

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18476/eu-china-relations

“For us Ukraine is the defining moment on whether we live in a world governed by rules or by force. We condemn Russian aggression against Ukraine and support this country’s sovereignty, democracy, not because we follow the US blindly, as sometimes China’s suggests, but because it is our position. This was an important message for the Chinese leadership to hear.” — EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell.

“We underlined that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is not only a defining moment for our continent, but also for our relationship with the rest of the world. There must be respect for international law, as well as for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.” — President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen.

“At the EU-China summit last Friday, the differences between Brussels and Beijing were palpable. The summit had no deliverables, no joint statement, and no joint press conference. Beijing would not clarify that it would not circumvent sanctions imposed on Russia over Ukraine. The distance between the EU and China seems to be increasing, with no turnaround in sight.” — Theresa Fallon, Director, Center for Russia Europe Asia Studies.

“What we’re observing now is an ongoing process by China and Russia to attempt to demolish the economic, security and normative order in Europe and beyond. This leads to the conclusion that China is neither a partner nor an economic competitor.” — Justyna Szczudlik, China analyst, Polish Institute of International Affairs.

“China does not want Brussels to coordinate its China strategy with Washington. But in its constant repetition of this theme, Beijing misses the point: Europe has its own concerns about China, independently of the United States… If Beijing continues to back Russia, the EU’s most direct security threat, how deep can the China-EU partnership really be?” — Shannon Tiezzi, Editor-in-Chief, The Diplomat.

“Mr. Putin is trying to redraw Europe’s borders by force, and Mr. Xi will not condemn him…. Mr. Putin has shown Europe that it needs a new China policy.” — The Economist.

A much-anticipated EU-China Summit, the first since 2020, has ended as both a failure and a success: a failure because the two sides were unable to agree on anything of bilateral importance; a success because after years of kowtowing to China, European officials finally stood their ground. EU-China relations are now on a new footing: Beijing no longer calls the shots.

China and Russia’s ‘Space War’: Where Is The US? by Judith Bergman

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18451/china-russia-space-war

“Evidence of both nations’ intent to undercut the United States and allied leadership in the space domain can be seen in the growth of combined in-orbit assets of China and Russia, which grew approximately 70% in just two years.” — Kevin Ryder, senior analyst at the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) for space and counterspace, Air Force Magazine April 12, 2022.

Space has already become the scene of an ongoing “shadow war” in which China and Russia conduct attacks against U.S. satellites with lasers, radiofrequency jammers, and cyber-attacks every day, according to General David Thompson, the U.S. Space Force’s first vice chief of space operations.

“The threats are really growing and expanding every single day…. We’re really at a point now where there’s a whole host of ways that our space systems can be threatened…. Hostile action toward our space-based assets is not a question of ‘if,’ but instead, ‘when.'” — General David Thompson, Washington Post, November 30, 2021.

“Fifteen years after China’s ASAT strike, we still lack the ability to defeat an attack on our space systems or launch an offensive strike if circumstances warrant.” — US Air Force Gen. Kevin Chilton (Ret.), former commander of U.S. Strategic Command and Air Force Space Command, The Hill, April 12, 2022.

“The PLA [People’s Liberation Army] will continue to integrate space services… to erode the U.S. military’s information advantage.” — Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community, Office of the Director of National Intelligence, February 2022.

“If deterrence were to fail, we would face an adversary that has integrated space into all aspects of their military operations…. Space provides the foundation of everything we do as a joint force, from delivering humanitarian assistance to combat on the ground, in the air, and at sea…. We cannot afford to lose space; without it we will fail.” — General John W. Raymond, U.S. Chief of Space Operations, Space Force News, April 5, 2022.

Space-based threats from China and Russia have grown exponentially in recent years, according to a new report on the issue by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), published April 12.

“Evidence of both nations’ intent to undercut the United States and allied leadership in the space domain can be seen in the growth of combined in-orbit assets of China and Russia, which grew approximately 70% in just two years,” noted Kevin Ryder, DIA senior analyst for space and counterspace. “This recent and continuing expansion follows a more than 200% increase between 2015 and 2018.”

Russia/Ukraine…look over there…but wait: Shanghai! Diane Bederman

https://dianebederman.com/russia-ukraine-look-over-there-but-wait-shanghai/

While our attention has been drawn to Russia/Ukraine: look over there! 24/7, Covid is back.  Shanghai is under assault.  On China’s central coast, Shanghai is the country’s biggest city and a global financial hub. Let me repeat, Shanghai is a global financial hub and major port – as in supply chain. To put it simply, Shanghai is one of only four port-cities in the world to be categorized as a large-port Megacity, due to its high volumes of port traffic and large urban population. One would think it would be important to pay attention when a major port city…in China…is shut down. But we are overwhelmed by news from Ukraine. There are 44 million people in the entire country of Ukraine – or there were before the war. There is an expectation that 8 million Ukrainians will flee. There are 26 million people in the city of Shanghai. We care about the people in Ukraine but not in Shanghai – why is that? We are watching people starve and cruelty to animals and don’t seem to care.

Right now, anyone with a positive Covid result is held in an isolation centre, some of which have been newly created from converted gymnasiums and exhibition halls. Authorities have installed fences to restrict the population’s movement. Green barriers have appeared without warning outside buildings where those inside are forbidden from leaving.  There are metal barriers in multiple districts to block off small streets and entrances to apartment complexes

Oh, like a ghetto, but not.

If that isn’t good enough, Shanghai city officials said infected patients and close contacts will be transferred to government-run centralized quarantine. Can’t begin to imagine how Trudeau would handle this in Canada!

Turkey Escalating Aggression against Greece: 90 Overflights in One Day by Uzay Bulut

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18434/turkey-aggression-greece-airspace

Turkish military aircraft violated Greek airspace 90 times in one day, on April 15, and conducted three overflights of inhabited Greek islands, according to Greek media.

Turkish aircraft have, in fact, been violating Greek airspace almost non-stop since the beginning of the year. In fact, Turkey — both its government and political opposition — has for years openly been threatening to capture Greek islands in the Aegean Sea…. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine seems to offer a convenient precedent for Turkey to increase its military aggression against Greece.

“Once again we wish to reiterate that sovereignty over the islands, islets and rocks of the Aegean was ceded to Greece definitively and unconditionally by the above Treaties and any interpretation against the letter or spirit of these fundamental Treaties would amount to an unauthorized attempt to unilaterally review and modify them.” — Greece’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Maria Theofili.

The legal status of the Greek islands in the Aegean is clear: The Treaty of Lausanne set the borders of Turkey and Greece, with the exception of the then-Italian occupied Dodecanese islands that reunited with Greece in 1947 following the signing of the Paris Peace Treaty between Italy and the World War II Allies.

Greek sovereignty over those islands is stipulated by international conventions: The 1923 Lausanne Treaty, the 1936 Montreux Treaty, and the 1947 Paris Treaty.

Sadly, Turkey appears to have an expansionist agenda that has a centuries-long history and that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has articulated.

Greece does not have such an agenda. Greece has not been busy invading or threatening its neighbors or other nations in the Middle East.

Turkey, however, invaded northern Cyprus in 1974, forcibly displaced the Greek Christians living there, and has been maneuvering to acquire the rest. In 2018, Turkey also invaded northern Syria and, using jihadist paramilitary forces, has been occupying the region ever since.

While the world has been distracted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Turkey, a member of the NATO alliance, has been busy harassing another NATO member, its Western neighbor, Greece.

Turkish military aircraft violated Greek airspace 90 times in one day, on April 15, and conducted three overflights of inhabited Greek islands, according to Greek media.

Iran Deal Has Become Stuck in Limbo — a Worst-Case Scenario An unfinalized deal that Washington would nevertheless decline to admit is dead could help Iran advance its nuclear aspirations. By Benny Avni

https://www.nysun.com/article/iran-deal-has-become-stuck-in-limbo-a-worst-case-scenario?utm_content=

Israelis believe that the American attempt at renewing the Iran deal is now on its deathbed. Americans say reviving it remains their goal. The most likely — and worst — scenario is that the Iran deal will forever be stuck in limbo.

An unfinalized deal that Washington would nevertheless decline to admit is dead could help Iran advance its nuclear aspirations. And that is likely the reason Tehran has upped the diplomatic ante by making demands that even President Biden could not accept.  

During a hearing in the Senate Foreign Relation Committee today, Secretary of State Blinken said the administration remains convinced that “getting back into compliance” with the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action “would be the best way to address the nuclear challenge imposed by Iran.”

In Israel, however, officials are rethinking their previous conclusion that a JCPOA revival is all but inevitable.  According to reports by two major Israeli publications, Prime Minister Bennett’s aides now assess that Washington is “closer than ever” to admitting defeat.

Mr. Biden’s hopes of reviving the 2015 pact are “dwindling at an exponential rate,” according to one of the reports, which was based on conversations with senior Israeli officials. That new assessment, reversing past thinking in Jerusalem, was leaked after Messrs. Bennett and Biden spoke on the phone Sunday.

During their talk, Mr. Biden has reportedly agreed to visit Israel as early as June. The Israeli national security adviser, Eyal Hulata, arrived in Washington yesterday for talks with his counterpart, Jacob Sullivan. The two advisers reportedly discussed ideas for a “plan B,” in case diplomacy with Iran fails. 

America is “attuned to Israel’s concerns about threats to its security, including first and foremost from Iran and Iranian-backed proxies,” according to a White House readout of the meeting. 

Talks in Vienna to renew the JCPOA were suspended in March after Iran demanded the removal of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps from the State Department’s list of foreign terrorist organizations. A strong bipartisan pushback in Congress convinced Mr. Biden, at least so far, to reject Tehran’s demand.

Demographics push China-India-Russia triple entente China at some point may dump its Pakistan investment and emphasize India ties, upending strategic calculations David Goldman

https://asiatimes.com/2022/04/demographics-push-china-india-russia-triple-entente/

There are numerous examples of the bitterest of enemies turning into unlikely allies, precisely because they present too great a danger to each other.

Britain and Russia spent most of the 19th century contending in the “Great Game” over India. Britain built the navy with which Japan beat Russia in the 1905 war. But Britain and Russiafought on the same side in the world wars of the 20th century.

Russia and China fought one war in 1929 and an undeclared border war in 1969, but share common interests against the United States and its allies.

The next strategic alignment among past enemies may bring together two of today’s strategic antagonists, namely India and China. At first glance, this seems improbable in the extreme. India and China have a longstanding border dispute that caused several hundred casualties in a clash in 1967 and claimed the lives of several dozen soldiers in another last year.

But there are three reasons why a diplomatic revolution may occur sometime in the next several years, and two of them are evident from the chart below.

Arrest of ‘Mossad Agents’ to Justify Tehran’s Anti-Semite, Anti-Western Strategies Majid Rafizadeh

https://townhall.com/columnists/majidrafizadeh/2022/04/25/arrest-of-mossad-agents-to-justify-tehrans-antisemite-antiwestern-strategies-n2606282

On Wednesday, the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS) announced that it had arrested three individuals on charges of spying for the Israeli intelligence service, Mossad. The identity of the persons in question or the evidence that led to allegations against them were not revealed.

Vulnerable political parties or authoritarian regimes that lack an agenda for prosperity and development have always invoked foreign boogeymen, in that they are useful to blame for one’s failures. For example, In 1980, the mullahs provoked their western neighbor into war and used the “the divine blessing”— as former Supreme Leader Ruhollah Khomeini put it — to wipe out domestic opposition. The Mujahedin-e-Khalq (PMOI), the People’s Fedayeen Organization, or any progressive movement that would have dared to speak out for democracy or women’s rights faced brutal crackdown, as a fifth columnist.

The Iranian regime has also a long history of using charges such as espionage and “collaborating with hostile states” to justify harsh sentences for political detainees. This impulse has accelerated in recent weeks as Tehran has been trying to expand its regional meddling as a hedge against the likely collapse of its 2015 nuclear agreement with the United States and five other world powers.

Opposition to Israel’s very existence has always been a central focus of the clerical regime’s appeals for “Muslim unity,” but this has faced newfound challenges since 2019 when a number of regional countries including Iran’s chief rival Saudi Arabia moved to normalize relations with Israel. Tehran has repeatedly condemned such efforts and has sought to leverage them against pre-existing relationships among other Arab and Muslim nations.