RUTHFULLY YOURS

https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/qed/2022/03/vladimir-putins-ever-darkening-room/

“A man who starts a war enters a dark room.” I sent out this quote in a tweet a few weeks before the start of the full-scale Russo-Ukrainian war. To avoid any possible misunderstanding, I pointed out that though the words were those of Adolf Hitler whom I would normally quote only to condemn, he had nonetheless established an impressive reputation as an expert on war. And I added: Vladimir Putin, take note.

Apparently, my influence doesn’t extend to the upper reaches of the Kremlin. On February 24 Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine and entered a much darker room than both he and his enemies expected. He is thought to have foreseen a lightning advance on Kiev that would last three days, be welcomed by the Ukrainian population (garlands, confetti, kisses), and climax in a victory parade for which Russian soldiers had already packed their dress uniforms. Most Western experts then forecast a longer campaign and a less welcoming victory—but a victory nonetheless.

Almost three weeks later (at the time of writing), those predictions look absurd. The latest estimates of deaths, refugees and destruction of property (gleaned from several sources) in the war are roughly 6000 to 12,000 Russian soldiers killed, 4000 to 6000 Ukrainians killed, 2.7 million refugees, and $119 billion worth of property damage.

Those estimates are already out of date as I write. His blitzkrieg having failed, Putin has now changed his strategy to a more traditional Russian one of pulverizing Ukraine’s cities and their civilian inhabitants as much as their defence forces by heavy missile and artillery bombardment. Deaths, casualties and destruction are therefore rising fast and likely to get far worse.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/ukraine-cannot-be-asked-to-sign-its-own-death-warrant/

The war in Ukraine appears right now in stark terms: A revanchist Russia seeks the extermination of the Ukrainian state, and the Ukrainian people, with their blood up in a fit of wartime nationalist fervor, are in the mood to fight to the last ditch for their nation. So long as Russia offers Ukraine no option but its annihilation as an independent state — at best, surviving with a foreign-imposed puppet regime — things are likely to continue along those lines. A man who is cornered with no way out will fight on until crushed, and perhaps beyond that in a protracted insurgency. American and European voices offering a “realistic” argument for Ukraine accepting peace terms to avoid further death and destruction have to reckon with the fact that, since time immemorial, there have always been things people feared worse than war.

The diplomatic dilemma in constructing an “off ramp” is that it has to satisfy both sides. As Jim Geraghty argues, it really is not apparent thus far that Vladimir Putin really wants one, or at least is willing to offer one in terms that are a remotely realistic appraisal of the mood of Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky and the people he represents.

For all of the Churchillian rhetoric surrounding Zelensky and Ukraine right now, it still makes sense for Ukraine to accept peace terms that are, in effect, an admission of defeat. Russia may be bogged down badly and embarrassing Putin and his military on the world stage, but it is still the larger, greater power, it has already occupied Ukrainian territory, the entire war is being fought on Ukrainian soil — not Russian — and Russia has nukes and the sort of leader whose willingness to use them can’t entirely be ruled out. Much as it will batter Ukrainian national pride and the prestige of its allies to admit this, any negotiated settlement will put Russia in a better position than before it entered the war. Compared with the status quo ante, Ukraine’s borders will be reduced. And it may be compelled to distance itself in some ways from the United States and Europe. Zelensky is already floating the possibility that a deal could involve permanently renouncing Ukrainian ambitions to join NATO. Strategic ambiguity will be officially dead, as if the war hasn’t already pronounced a time of death. Ukraine may have to accept being forced further into Russia’s parlous economic orbit and away from the European Union.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18330/russia-funding-environmental-groups

“I have met allies who can report that Russia, as part of their sophisticated information and disinformation operations, engaged actively with so-called non-governmental organisations – environmental organisations working against shale gas – to maintain European dependence on imported Russian gas.” — NATO’s then Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, The Guardian, June 19, 2014.

The mechanism, which can be summarized as follows: “Funds from the Russian government -> Shell company ‘incorporated’ in Bermuda -> American foundation -> American environmental organizations.” The advantage of Bermuda is that it does not require any disclosure that funds come from a foreign government, contrary to American law. Sea Change must disclose that it has received funds from abroad — in this instance a Bermuda company. Nothing more.

On March 11, 2022, US Representatives Jim Banks and Bill Johnson sent a letter to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, asking for an investigation into the reported Russian manipulation of American “green groups” that are seemingly funded with “dark money” (anonymous donations). “Russia spent millions promoting anti-energy policies and politicians in the U.S. … Unlike the Russia hoax, Putin’s malign influence on our energy sector is real and deserves further investigation,” Banks said to Fox News Digital.

Below Europe’s soil lie large reserves of shale gas, also known as bedrock gas. The exploitation of these European natural gas reserves would have substantially reduced Europe’s purchases of, and dependence on, Russia’s gas — in particular on its gas giant, Gazprom. The same is true of nuclear power, which offers Westerners an abundant, non-CO2-emitting energy source as an alternative to Russian gas.

Hence the interest, for the Russian government, in mounting a vast disinformation campaign against shale gas and nuclear power in the West, by massively financing the groups most likely “naturally” to oppose it: environmentalist organizations.

Have Western environmental non-governmental organizations (NGOs), movements and parties been possible, even unwitting, collaborators with the Russian government for the last ten years?

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2022/03/while_all_eyes_are_on_ukraine_china_continues_undermining_americas_wellbeing.html

If you travel, you know that one of the things that countries and states zealously check for is smuggling prohibited foods. That sounds neurotic and protectionist but it’s an important part of securing a country’s food supply. If pests, parasites, or diseases migrate into a nation’s food supply, it can destroy entire farming sectors and even lead to famine. That’s why it matters that China has been caught smuggling hundreds of thousands of pounds of potentially contaminated meats into America. (Hat tip: FrontPage Mag.)

I first fully understood the problem of a contaminated food supply in the early 1980s when I learned that England’s cattle had been contaminated with Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (aka mad cow disease). News of it broke not long after I returned to America following a college year in England. Having eaten beef in England (although not much because I couldn’t afford it), I neurotically worried for some years after that I might find myself afflicted with the disease. As it turned out, I avoided that scourge but, over the next few years, the British slaughtered over four million cattle and numerous countries banned British beef. It was a tragedy and an economic disaster for farmers.

Thus, there is nothing foolish about countries rigorously policing any contaminants that might get into the food supply. But little things like rules don’t stop the Chinese. After all, they’ve already flooded America with fentanyl and COVID, so why shouldn’t we also be a target of potentially dangerous meats?

https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/2022/03/will-putin-ante-dr-craig-luther/

Geographically, Ukraine is the largest country in Europe (about the size of Texas and some 1800km across from west to east); it has a population of more than 40,000,000. The Russian invasion is being conducted along four axes: 1) from the north, out of Belarus; 2) from the northeast, along the Chernihiv-Sumy-Kharkiv axis; 3) out of the Donbas region of southeastern Ukraine (with the help of the two Russian separatist republics of Luhansk and Donetsk); and, 4) out of Crimea in the south. In general, while the Russian assault has been significantly less effective than anticipated, Russian forces are still managing, deliberately and inexorably, to encircle and bombard key Russian cities and towns, e.g., the Ukrainian capital Kyiv, Kharkiv (Ukraine’s second largest city), Mariupol. In the process, they have created the most tragic humanitarian disaster in Europe since the end of World War II, with more than 2,000,000 refugees now fleeing Ukraine.

The Initial Russian Air & Missile Strikes.

When Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24th, Western military observers expected the Russian Air Force (VKS) to unleash something akin to the “shock and awe” campaign of our first Gulf War in 1991. At the start of Operation DESERT STORM, U.S. and Allied air forces conducted literally thousands of sorties, paralyzing Iraq’s leadership, destroying its military infrastructure (including air bases), and eliminating or at least grounding the Iraqi Air Force, giving Allied air forces complete command of the air, something air war theorists call “air supremacy.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live/2022/03/14/path-forward-david-malpass-president-world-bank-group/

MR. IGNATIUS: Welcome to Washington Post Live. I’m David Ignatius, a columnist for The Post. My guest today is David Malpass, the president of the World Bank. The world economy has been a rollercoaster the last two years, first with the COVID pandemic, now with terrible violence and disruption of the Ukraine war. Mr. Malpass is going to help us see our way through this turmoil. Thank you so much for joining us today on Washington Post Live, Mr. Malpass.

MR. MALPASS: Thank you for having me, David. Good to see you.

MR. IGNATIUS: So, sir, I want to begin with the Ukraine war. On March the 1st, a week into the war, you issued a joint statement with Kristalina Georgieva, the head of the IMF, warning that the war was creating–and I’m quoting here–“significant spillovers to other countries” and that disruption of financial markets will continue to worsen should the conflict persist and that sanctions that were then being imposed will also have a significant economic effect. We’re now in the third week of this war, and I want to ask you to give us an assessment of the damage to the international economy so far and what’s ahead given current trends.

MR. MALPASS: We can see there’s a massive impact, David. It extends from energy and food supplies to the long-run problems of rebuilding or of reconstruction of all of the destruction that’s going on in Ukraine. So in addition to our horror at the human catastrophe, we have to look at the global economy and see that it’s a big negative. There’s the lost supply from Russia and Ukraine. But there’s also hoarding, which I’ve talked about, that people need to really avoid that, because that in itself drives up prices, and that has the biggest impact on the poor. What our–one of my focuses and the focus of the World Bank is on poorer countries around the world and the people in those countries, and they are immediately affected by the rise in prices that’s occurring now.

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2022/03/hanging_81_high_in_saudi_arabia.html

While much of the world is coping with the fallout from the Russian-Ukrainian almost-war, inflation, ever-increasing energy prices, supply chain issues, more crime, now you have, now you don’t WuFlu coronavirus, oil-rich U.S. supplier Saudi Arabia, announced Saturday that it had executed 81 people in one day on a variety of terrorism-related offences, exceeding the total number of executions in the kingdom  the whole of last year.

All had been “found guilty of committing multiple heinous crimes,” the official Saudi Press Agency reported, saying they included convicts linked to the Islamic State group, or to Al-Qaeda, Yemen’s Houthi rebel forces or “other terrorist organisations.”

They had been plotting attacks on vital economic sites, or had targeted or had killed members of the security forces, or had smuggled weapons into the country, the SPA added.

Saturday’s announcement marks the kingdom’s highest number of recorded executions in one day, and more than the total of 69 executions in all of 2021.

Incidentally I couldn’t find any reference to this on the SPA site, but it could just be me.  But all is okay because they were tried in Saudi courts with judges.

https://www.investigativeproject.org/9150/the-strange-alliance-between-russia-and-chechen

As Russian casualties in Ukraine continue to mount, numbering in the thousands, Moscow is turning to Syrian and Chechen Islamic fighters as strategic assets. “We do believe that the accounts of them, the Russians, seeking Syrian fighters to augment their forces in Ukraine,” Defense Department spokesman John Kirby told reporters Monday. “We believe there’s truth to that. […] we’re in no position to refute the accounts that they might be seeking to recruit Syrian fighters.”

Chechnya is a land-locked region located in the North Caucasus, a member republic of the Russian Federation, a strictly conservative state with a majority of Sunni Muslims. Chechnya attempted to form a breakaway independent state after the 1991 dissolution of the Soviet Union. Russia suffered a humiliating defeat in 1996, which was reversed by a fierce crackdown in 2000. The Russian authorities went on to establish a pro-Russian regime in 2003, managing to gain the support of a great faction of Chechen warlords.

Ramzan Kadyrov, the Chechen strongman and close Putin ally, has served as head of the Chechen Republic since 2007. The Kremlin-backed leader has imposed strict Islamic social norms encouraging polygamy and promoting dispatch of his Islamic fighters abroad.

Known in Russian as Kadyrovtsy, those fighters have been deployed in special operations in Lebanon, Georgia and Syria as strategic assets of Russian foreign policy. They have also taken part in counterinsurgency cooperation programs between Russia and China.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18329/russia-putin-ukraine-invasion

Those who believe Putin is trying to reestablish Russia as a great power say that once he gains control over Ukraine, he will turn his focus to other former Soviet republics, including the Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, and eventually Bulgaria, Romania and even Poland.

“The Eurasian Empire will be constructed on the fundamental principle of the common enemy: the rejection of Atlanticism, the strategic control of the USA, and the refusal to allow liberal values to dominate us.” — Aleksandr Dugin, Russian strategist, “Foundation of Geopolitics: The Geopolitical Future of Russia.”

“Make no mistake: For #Putin it’s not about EU or NATO, it is about his mission to restore Russian empire. No more, no less. #Ukraine is just a stage, NATO is just one irritant. But the ultimate goal is Russian hegemony in Europe.” — Jan Behrends, German historian.

“Normally wars that take place between states are about conflicts they have between them. Yet this is a war about the existence of one state, which is denied by the aggressor. That’s why the usual concepts of peacemaking — finding a compromise — do not a apply. If Ukraine continues to exist as a sovereign state, Putin will have lost. He is not interested in territorial gain as such — it’s rather a burden for him. He is only interested in controlling the entire country. Everything else for him is defeat.” — Ulrich Speck, German geopolitical analyst.

“Because the primary threat to Putin and his autocratic regime is democracy, not NATO, that perceived threat would not magically disappear with a moratorium on NATO expansion. Putin would not stop seeking to undermine democracy and sovereignty in Ukraine, Georgia, or the region as a whole if NATO stopped expanding.” — Michael McFaul, former U.S. Ambassador to Russia, and Robert Person, a professor at the United States Military Academy.

“I don’t think that this war is about NATO; I don’t think this war is about Ukrainian people or the EU or even about Ukraine; this war is about starting a war in order to stay in power. Putin is a dictator, and he’s a dictator whose intention is to stay in power until the end of his natural life. He said to himself that the writing’s on the wall for him unless he does something dramatic. Putin is just thinking short-term … ‘how do I stay in power from this week to the next? And then next week to the next?'” ­— Bill Browder, American businessman and head, Global Magnitsky Justice Campaign.

Nearly three weeks have passed since Russian President Vladimir Putin began his invasion of Ukraine, but it still is not clear why he did so and what he hopes to achieve. Western analysts, commentators and government officials have put forward more than a dozen theories to explain Putin’s actions, motives, and objectives.

https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/qed/2022/03/how-vladimir-putin-lost-the-wests-soft-left/

Ukraine has some resemblances to France: both are large, temperate, fertile, rectangular land masses at each end of the European continent. Putin claims Ukraine is not a nation. It was recognized as a country under the United Nations, and became fully independent after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990. Crucially it signed an agreement with Russia in 1996 whereby it gave up its nuclear weapons and granted a lease of the Sebastopol naval base to Russia, in return for Russia guaranteeing its sovereignty. The fact that Putin soon broke this agreement does not annul this Russian recognition of Ukraine’s existence, but it did give us a foretaste of Putin’s attitude to his international obligations.

There is a more sinister meaning to Putin’s claim that Ukraine is not a nation: it is both a threat and a forecast. We normally take notice of events happening around us and then try to understand them. Putin’s mind, unlike ours, starts with his ideological fixations and then contorts reality into bizarre shapes so that it may live up to his preconceived expectations of it. His present invasion has the effect of confirming in Putin’s mind his long-held notion of Ukraine’s non-existence in the natural scheme of things. In one mood, Putin, to justify his takeover, claims Russians and Ukrainians are Slavic blood brothers, members of the same race, which is a little difficult to reconcile with his present treatment of Ukrainians. Ludicrous statements recently made by Putin include: Ukrainians are Nazis and drugs addicts; Ukraine committed genocide in Donetsk-Lugansk; the West is the aggressor; Western sanctions are a declaration of war; Soviet invaders are peace keepers; the invasion of Ukraine is not a war, just a limited military operation.

Russia claimed to be insecure (unlikely for such a powerful nation) because NATO was aggressively moving its forces up to Russia’s sphere of influence. This convoluted argument was an example of role reversal: Russia had been acting so aggressively that the newly released nations of Eastern Europe felt genuinely insecure and asked for NATO protection. The West became so justifiably scared of provoking the nasty Russian bear it did little to reinforce Ukraine. Russia invaded not because the West was aggressive but because, on the contrary, Ukraine had been left weakened.