RUTHFULLY YOURS

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18181/russia-ukraine

Putin’s propaganda tries to portray NATO as the putative invader. At the same time, he makes much of Russia’s money out of selling oil and gas to NATO members in Europe who, in turn, allow his money to be nested in their banks.

Putin tries to pose as a potential victim of a non-existent aggression.

Putin seems to be dreaming of a cordon sanitaire for Russia, one that is more of a cultural-political shield rather than a glacis in military terms. He wants Russia surrounded by Finlandized countries from China to the Caspian Basin, the Middle East and East and Central Europe.

Rather than threatening invasion, Putin should try to make his Russia so attractive that Ukrainians and others wish to choose it as a model rather than looking to old Western democracies. That, however, means that Russia must change and deal with its centuries-long identity crisis between European aspirations and Asiatic fears.

By the time you read this article, Russian troops may have entered Ukraine or even captured its capital Kiev in a blitzkrieg that would have made Field Marshal von Paulus green with envy. Or, maybe you would witness nothing but more sabre rattling by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18143/turkey-istanbul-mayor-erdogan

“If we lose Istanbul, we lose Turkey.” — Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

It appears that [Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu’s] “terrorists” are actually people who are being probed for links with illegal organizations but who have not been prosecuted — let alone being found guilty by courts.

This kind of intimidation, further victimizing Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu in the eyes of the voters, will simply boost his popularity — and at a time when Erdoğan’s ratings are plummeting.

Erdoğan, it seems, did not want opposition mayors to gain further popularity by helping the poor.

It would be premature to conclude that there will be a historic shift in Turkish politics in 2023. All the same, the reports are real, and so are Erdoğan’s fears, panic and increasingly reckless governance.

Turkey’s secular state establishment was shocked when a young militant Islamist won the mayoral elections in Turkey’s biggest city, Istanbul, in 1994. “Who wins Istanbul wins Turkey,” Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, at that time Istanbul’s mayor, would often say. History would prove him right.

https://www.spiked-online.com/2022/01/23/britain-has-a-muslim-anti-semitism-problem/

Rakib Ehsan is a research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society and a patron of Muslims Against Anti-Semitism (MAAS).

Highly segregated communities have become breeding grounds for Islamism and anti-Jew hatred.

On 15 January, Malik Faisal Akram, a 44-year-old British Pakistani Muslim from Blackburn in north-west England, took four people hostage at a synagogue in Colleyville, Texas. In return for their release, he called on the US authorities to free Islamist terrorist Aafia Siddiqui from nearby Fort Worth prison. In a phone call during the siege to his brother, he said that ‘maybe [the authorities will] have compassion for fucking Jews’. An FBI hostage rescue team eventually entered the synagogue and shot Akram dead.

Despite the FBI’s attempt to downplay Akram’s anti-Semitism, he was clearly motivated by anti-Jewish sentiment. He targeted a synagogue. He used anti-Semitic language. And he was reported to the UK police a year ago for threatening to bomb and kill Jews. How did we get here? How has it come to pass that a British Islamist anti-Semite has carried out an act of terror at an American synagogue? And how should we respond to it?

Anti-Semitism in British Muslim communities

British citizens’ involvement in anti-Jewish Islamist terrorism is sadly nothing new. Back in July 2012, married couple Mohammed Sajid Khan and Shasta Khan were both jailed for planning terror attack on Jewish targets in Greater Manchester. After a domestic dispute at their home, police discovered a stash of terror-related material which included beheading videos, Islamist propaganda glorifying Osama bin Laden, and bomb-making manuals. Another married couple, Ummarayiat Mirza and Madihah Taheer, were both sentenced to prison in December 2017 for plotting a terror attack in Birmingham. Targets included a city-centre synagogue.

https://henryjacksonsociety.org/

We are currently living through what many observers regard as the most dangerous geopolitical crisis for a generation. Russia has massed a vast military force along its border with Ukraine and is threatening to unleash a full-scale invasion of the country if its demands are not met. The ensuing conflict would likely be the largest in Europe since WWII, with unclear but dire consequences for the entire continent.

At the heart of this crisis is one man’s refusal to accept the verdict of the Cold War and his burning resentment at modern Russia’s diminished standing on the global stage. Throughout his political career, Vladimir Putin has made no secret of his desire to revive Russia’s international prestige and address the perceived geopolitical injustices of the recent past. These imperial ambitions have found expression in Putin’s increasingly public obsession with Ukraine, a country whose very existence has come to embody the Russian ruler’s darkest fears and his many historical grievances.

A clear understanding of Putin’s Ukraine obsession is essential for anyone who wishes to make sense of the current crisis. Luckily, this task has been made considerably easier by the summer 2021 publication of a 5,000-word essay on the topic authored by Vladimir Putin himself.

Entitled “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians,” Putin’s remarkable treatise showcases his contempt for Ukrainian statehood and his belief in the artificial nature of the country’s current separation from Russia, which he blames on insidious outside influences. Putin the amateur historian states unequivocally that Ukrainians and Russians are “one people” and concludes by declaring “I am confident that true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible only in partnership with Russia.”

The Russian president’s tract has certainly helped raise international awareness of his Ukraine obsession. British Defense Minister Ben Wallace recently penned his own article on the subject and drew many alarming conclusions from his sober analysis of Putin’s own words. “President Putin’s article completely ignores the wishes of the citizens of Ukraine, while evoking that same type of ethno-nationalism which played out across Europe for centuries and still has the potential to awaken the same destructive forces of ancient hatred,” noted Wallace. Nevertheless, relatively few Western politicians or policymakers appear to have fully grasped the scale or implications of Putin’s preoccupation with Ukraine.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18135/erdogan-ambitions-east

Obsessed with reviving Turks’ imperial days of glory, Erdoğan is turning to Turkey’s east to create a pan-Turkic/Islamist strategic alliance consisting of Turkey, Azerbaijan and Pakistan, with part-time, tactical alliances with Iran, Qatar and Bangladesh.

The idea is to bring together three Muslim nations: NATO member Turkey; Azerbaijan with its rich hydrocarbon resources and growing military capabilities; and Pakistan with its nuclear weapons.

It is not a coincidence that Erdoğan has visited Azerbaijan more than 20 times during his presidency.

Ankara appears to hope that the U.S. exit from Afghanistan has created space for the leadership role of Turkey and Pakistan.

It all looks promising. Except it is not.

The Turkey-led move to upgrade Turkic-speaking states’ cooperation into a political unit that could weaken Beijing’s and Moscow’s influence in Central Asia will no doubt come under close Chinese and Russian scrutiny.

In theory, Iran is Turkey’s “Muslim brother.” In reality, it is (Sunni) Turkey’s (Shia) sectarian adversary, historical rival and cross-border contender in Shia-majority Iraq and Shia-ruled Syria.

And, finally, Russia. Azerbaijan is still more of a Russian turf, than a Turkish one. More Azeris speak Russian than those who love to roar the Turkic slogan “one nation, two states.” Pakistan remains China’s strongest ally and appears happy to consider itself Chinese territory.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s ambitious neo-Ottoman policy calculus has earned Turkey unprecedented international isolation. Turkey won the title of being the world’s only country that was sanctioned by all of the United States, Russia and the European Union in the past five years. Turkey’s negotiations for full membership in the EU have come to a halt and the European Council has started infringement procedures against NATO’s only Muslim member state. Obsessed with reviving Turks’ imperial days of glory, Erdoğan is turning to Turkey’s east to create a pan-Turkic/Islamist strategic alliance consisting of Turkey, Azerbaijan and Pakistan, with part-time, tactical alliances with Iran, Qatar and Bangladesh.

https://pjmedia.com/spengler/2022/01/25/putins-waited-30-years-to-sort-out-ukraine-n1552603

“Ukraine’s induction into the Western alliance system would mean that the US missiles could hit Moscow in 5 minutes, rendering Russian air defence systems ineffectual and obsolete,” writes former top Indian diplomat M.K. Bhadrakumar in his blog. Since 1991, when the U.S. and Germany assured Gorbachev that NATO would NOT expand eastward if Russia agreed to German unification, Russia has believed that the West betrayed a solemn commitment by pushing NATO towards Russia’s border (this is disputed by most U.S. sources).

Russia thinks in terms of firepower and facts on the ground. Putin has spent the past dozen years turning Russia’s armed forces into a well-armed, efficient instrument (it took less than 24 hours to put Russia’s 6th Airborne into Kazakhstan and just three days to kill everyone who didn’t like it). He’s lurked in the tall grass waiting for an opportunity to settle accounts.

Why now? Because he can. U.S. sanctions mean less than they did in the past because China wants as much overland energy supply as it can get (in a scrap, the U.S. Navy could interdict tanker supply from the Persian Gulf). China and Russia are joined at the hip in high-tech (Huawei has a huge presence there). The specter of a Russian-Chinese alliance spooks the West, with good reason.

The Europeans don’t want a fight with Russia. When Germany’s equivalent of the secretary of the Navy, Admiral Schoenbach, said last week that Putin “deserves respect,” he was forced to resign, but he spoke for the overwhelming majority of Germans.

NATO is weak, China is ascendant, and the U.S. is confused; Russia is well-armed and prepared. That’s why Putin is making his move now.

https://asiatimes.com/2022/01/ukraine-is-the-hollow-man-of-europe/

Ukraine is disappearing, for two reasons. It has one of the world’s lowest birth rates at just 1.23 children per female, and one of the world’s highest rates of out-migration. No other country has willed itself out of existence so decisively.

Ukraine’s demographic decline is so pronounced that it should be high on the list of strategic considerations. For what, and for whom, might NATO and Russia go to war?

Ukrainians vote with their feet. Nine million have work abroad, according to the National Security and Defense Council of the Ukraine, and 3.2 million have full-time jobs in other countries. There are only 21 million Ukrainians between the ages of 20 and 55, which suggests that more than two-fifths of prime working-age Ukrainians earn their living elsewhere.

I do not know whether this estimate includes half a million Ukrainian prostitutes working abroad since independence, according to one scholarly estimate.

Even worse, a Wilson Center study reports, Ukraine’s best-educated people are likeliest to leave:

Ukrainians who go abroad to study often view their studies as the first stage of emigration. A survey of Ukrainian students at universities in Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic showed that students who studied in these countries had similar motives for doing so. Most said they intended to earn their diplomas in order to work in the EU in the future, since living conditions in Ukraine were unsatisfactory; few planned to return home after graduating. Those who do return may be the ones unable to settle abroad in permanent positions.

https://bit.ly/3o2RVMV

Iran’s domestic violence feeds the global Islamic Revolution

According to London-based Iran human rights review: “The combination of Iran’s human rights practices, its weapons programs, its democratic deficit and its support for listed terrorist entities make it a special and dangerous case. Human rights abuses in Iran threaten the peace and security of people elsewhere. It must be tackled, not just for the sake of justice, but also for the peace, order, and good government of Western democracies….”

Iran’s crackdown on religious and ethnic minorities, exacerbated by Iran’s anti-Western hate-education curriculum, is the most authentic reflection of the Ayatollahs’ worldview and strategic vision. However, this rogue domestic conduct has never featured prominently in the negotiation process between the US and the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Moreover, Iran’s domestic fanaticism constitutes a most productive breeding ground of recruits for the global exportation of the Islamic Revolution.

However, downplaying – or even whitewashing – the centrality of Iran’s domestic violence, provides the Ayatollahs with a robust tailwind, while generating a sturdy headwind to the battle against Islamic terrorism.

Furthermore, a focus on Iran’s domestic conduct would set the current negotiation on realistic – rather than make believe – grounds, exposing the built-in contradiction between the assumption that Iran is a potential “good-faith negotiator” and the reality of Iran as a prime epicenter of anti-US violence, driven by a 1,400-year-old fanatic and imperialistic Shiite Islamic vision.

https://amgreatness.com/2022/01/26/why-putin-has-not-been-deterred/

Americans want an autonomous Ukraine to survive. They hope the West can stop Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strangulation of both Ukraine and NATO. 

Yet Americans do not want their troops to venture across the world to Europe’s backyard to fight nuclear Russia to ensure that Ukraine stays independent. 

Most Americans oppose the notion that Russia can simply dictate the future of Ukraine. 

Yet Americans also grudgingly accept that Ukraine was often historically part of Russia. During World War II, it was the bloody scene of joint Russian-Ukrainian sacrifices—over 5 million killed—to defeat the Nazi German invasion. 

Americans publicly support NATO. 

Yet most Americas privately worry that NATO has become diplomatically impotent and a military mirage—a modern League of Nations. 

NATO members have a collective GDP seven times larger than Russia’s. Their aggregate population is 1 billion. Yet the majority will not spend enough on defense to deter their weaker enemies. 

The second largest NATO member, Turkey, is closer to Russia than to the United States. Its people poll anti-American. 

Germany is NATO’s richest European member and the power behind the European Union. Yet Germany will soon be dependent on imported Russian natural gas for much of its energy needs. 

In a recent Pew Research Center poll, 70 percent of Germans voiced a desire for more cooperation with Russia. Most Americans poll the exact opposite. 

Worse, 60 percent of Germans oppose going to the aid of any NATO country in time of war. Over 70 percent of Germans term their relationship with the United States as “bad.” 

We can translate all these disturbing results in the following manner: The German and Turkish people like or trust Russia more than they do their own NATO patron, America. 

They would not support participating in any NATO joint military effort against even an invading Russia—even, or especially, if spearheaded by an unpopular United States. 

So, assume that NATO’s key two members are either indifferent to the fate of nearby Ukraine, or sympathetic to Russia’s professed grievances—or both. 

Indeed, most Americans fear that if Ukraine ever became a NATO member, Putin might be even more eager to test its sovereignty. 

Putin assumes that not all NATO members would intervene to help an attacked Ukraine, as required by their mutual defense obligations under Article 5. 

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18086/turkey-erdogan-hoax

The Turks’ per capita GDP has been falling for the seventh consecutive year, from $12,500 in 2012 to slightly more than $7,000 this year. The Turkish lira has lost more than half its value against major Western currencies in just the past three months.

“The problem with the narrative is there is no evidence Ankara wants better ties or is willing to do anything in which Israel benefits… It [Ankara] thus wants ‘reconciliation’ without actually doing anything.”— Seth J. Frantzman, The Jerusalem Post, December 5 , 2021.

Erdoğan’s charm offensive to win hearts and minds in Washington, however, is not limited to changing his aggressive course against Israel or unfriendly Gulf states.

U.S. President Joe Biden has persistently encouraged Turkey to normalize diplomatic relations with Armenia…. What is the hoax here? Erdoğan’s move to pretend that Turkey is now taking steps for normalization is fake. He will start a process that he never intends never to complete — just in case other efforts might have gone unnoticed in Washington.

The ailing Turkish economy is forcing Erdoğan to reconcile with adversaries, and reconciliation means these adversaries will demand that Erdogan stop supporting Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood. That will be the case “in the short-term.” At the first opportunity, however, Erdogan will abandon the reconciliation and resume his support for these terrorist groups.

Erdoğan’s pragmatist-self has only appeared after 12 or so years, as he prepares to fight for his political survival in the 2023 elections. If he feels Gulf money and some kind of U.S. political support has bolstered the Turkish economy sufficiently for him to win in 2023, he will take off his reconciliatory mask and put his usual Islamist shirt back on.

The province of Konya in central Anatolia has historically been a bastion of extreme conservatism and political Islam — meaning supporters of Turkey’s Islamist strongman Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. In the presidential elections of 2018, in this industrial city, he won 75% of the vote.