https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/20893/china-philippines-next-ukraine
With his assault on the Philippines, Xi could be finally making his own move in East Asia.
Beijing claims all the features and waters inside its infamous “cow’s tongue,” now defined by ten dashes on official maps, which encloses about 85% of the South China Sea. Those waters, the Chinese proclaim, are “blue national soil.”
It appears… that China’s leader is not planning to start hostilities with an invasion of the main island of Taiwan.
Xi, in the domestic political landscape he has shaped, knows he is vulnerable, especially because his policies are being blamed for making a deteriorating situation worse. Xi needs a quick political victory, but unfortunately for him, a takeover of Taiwan is out of reach.
That means, I think, he has decided to move on a weak neighbor. The Republic of the Philippines fits the bill.
The risk is that an attack on the Philippines will lead to general conflict in the region. As an initial matter, Manila and the U.S. are parties to a 1951 treaty. The Biden State Department has issued written warnings — the last one on August 19 — that the U.S. was willing to use force against China to discharge its obligations…
In addition, NATO members over the last several years have become involved in the South China Sea.
On August 23, China’s foreign ministry said that the country had taken “countermeasures” against two Philippine military aircraft near Subi Reef in the South China Sea.
Four days earlier, Chinese Coast Guard vessels, without justification, rammed two Philippine boats near Sabina Shoal as they tried to resupply forces stationed at Flat and Nanshan Islands.