RUTHFULLY YOURS

https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2019-4-4-the-arguments-in-favor-of-brexit-are-more-persuasive-than-ever

Back at the time of the UK’s referendum on “Brexit” in June 2016, I wrote two posts on the subject: one on the June 23 date of the vote, and the other four days later. The first advocated in favor of the “leave” position, and the second gave some reasons to believe that the just-endorsed departure would be a good thing.

One of the things I predicted was that the actual departure would not happen quickly or easily. The reason was that the forces of “stay” controlled high positions in the government and other leading institutions, had much to lose personally, and would not give up easily:

[D]o not expect the totalitarians and vested interests to give up easily. I anticipate a protracted campaign of obstruction and delay, as the grafters desperately fight and claw to hang onto every last grant and perk.

Boy was I right about that one! Here we are, going on three years later, and the Brexit has still not occurred.

Meanwhile the Brexit “process” has turned into a Perils of Pauline soap opera, barely escaping one supposed disaster after another seemingly every few days.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/14004/turkey-municipal-elections-results

The election results in Istanbul, now disputed by the AKP, put the opposition candidate into the lead by a margin of 23,000 votes in a city with 10.5 million voters.

“Though Turkey’s government and many commentators are blaming the Trump administration and foreign speculators for the country’s economic downturn, the reality is that it was already ‘baked into the cake’ many years ago due to the credit bubble that formed.” — Jesse Colombo, Forbes.

Simple religious Islamist conservative and ultra-nationalist populism are still keeping Erdoğan in power, but there are signs that, if the economy keeps getting worse, those forces may not be able to save him. There are signs that this is taking place.

On March 31, the Turks went to the ballot box to elect mayors for their cities. Ostensibly the election results marked President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s 15th consecutive election victory since his (Islamist) Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power in November 2002. The AKP won the biggest number of votes (44%) nationwide. Its ultra-nationalist ally, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) won 7% of the vote. That was good news for Erdoğan. In reality, it was good but incomplete news for Turkey’s Islamist strongman.

“Who loses Istanbul [in elections] loses Turkey,” Erdoğan roared in a 2018 speech, underlying the importance of big Turkish cities in municipal elections.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/land-of-the-rising-unease-11554333457

Japan is joining much of the world in facing weaker economic growth, but in one respect it’s unique. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe seems determined to make it worse by imposing a tax increase later this year.

This week’s survey of business confidence from the Bank of Japan makes for bracing reading. Confidence among large manufacturers fell to 12 from 19 in December, the steepest decline since 2013. Smaller manufacturers shared the gloom. This follows anemic retail sales and weak growth in industrial production in February after several months of contraction. The economy eked out GDP growth of 0.8% in 2018 and may struggle to match that this year.

Foreign pressures aren’t helping Japan, including President Trump’s trade war with China, which has Asian economies caught in the crossfire. Japan’s export-dependent economy remains vulnerable to slower growth in Europe and China.

Yet domestic problems are also in play. Mr. Abe’s economic revival program, Abenomics, still hasn’t fully launched as it enters its eighth year. He delivered more government spending and an unprecedented monetary blowout, but the policy reforms intended as the “third arrow” of the plan never took flight. This is weighing on investment and productivity growth.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/13994/russia-venezuela

Russia was considering deploying strategic bombers full-time in Venezuela, according to the Russian newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta, as reported by Moscow Times. The Russian media outlet also reported that an agreement had been reached between Moscow and Caracas to allow the deployment of Russian aircraft at a military base Venezuela’s Caribbean island of La Orchila, where Russian advisers were dispatched in December.

It is urgent for Washington to act before Russia and Venezuela reach their imminent formal military agreement. At the same time, NATO membership should be offered to Brazil, a major ally, and economic aid should be provided to Columbia.

“[China and Russia] back Maduro to the hilt because they have much to lose if his leftist government falls. Both maintain crucial military facilities in the country… In recent months, China, the regime’s largest creditor, has been digging itself in deeper. In September, Beijing extended Venezuela another $5 billion in credit. Russia has also loaned the country billions.” — Gordon G. Chang, Gatestone Institute.

After the landing of two Russian aircraft in Caracas on March 23 — one an Ilyushin Il-62 passenger plane transporting 100 ground forces and the other an Antonov An-124 military cargo plane carrying 35 tons of materiel – U.S. President Donald J. Trump said that “Russia has to get out” of Venezuela.

In January, two months before this arrival of Russian military personnel and equipment in Venezuela, two Russian Air Force Tu-160 strategic bombers flying over the Arctic region near the North American coastline were detected and escorted out of the area by Canadian and U.S. Air Force jets.

Although it was not clear where these Russian bombers were headed, a similar incident had occurred a few weeks before, when two of the same type of Russian Tu-160 strategic bombers landed outside Caracas — sorties indicating that these, too, were headed to Venezuela.

http://www.realclearlife.com/daily-brief/homosexuality-adultery-now-punishable-death-stoning-brunei/

Despite heavy backlash from the international community, Brunei, the small nation of about 450,000 people on the island of Borneo, went ahead with enacting its new Islamic criminal laws Wednesday, which makes gay sex punishable by stoning to death.

The draconian penal code, enacted by the Southeast Asian country’s sultan, Hassanal Bolkiah, is part of the predominantly Muslim country’s rollout of Sharia law, Time reported. In October of 2013, Bolkiah first announced that his nation would practice Sharia law.

Some of the proposed phases of the new laws, like making certain offenses punishable by amputation or death, were delayed amid global censure. But this week, Bolkiah defied critics and enacted legislation that allows ruthless punishments, some of which may even apply to children and non-Muslim foreigners.

Homosexuality, which was already illegal and punishable with prison time, is now a crime that can lead to death by stoning, according to Time. This sentence now also applies to those who commit rape, adultery, sodomy, extramarital sex and for insulting the Prophet Muhammed.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/04/brexit-theresa-may-march-brutal-month/

March has seen the unraveling of the Brexit process and the ruin of Theresa May.

When Harold Macmillan became Britain’s prime minister, or so the story goes, a young reporter asked what would decide his government’s course. Macmillan’s reply? “Events, dear boy, events!” But Theresa May’s government will not be remembered for decisive events. Rather it will be remembered for a series of failures that led to the most catastrophic non-event in recent British history — Brexit.

As you know, Britain was scheduled to leave the European Union on March 29. The country voted to leave in a 2016 referendum. March 29 was supposed to be a decisive, historic event. Ever since Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty was triggered two years ago, the main political players all committed to it. And yet cometh the hour, cometh no Brexit. . . .

March 1: Theresa May’s former chief of staff told the BBC that the prime minister always saw Brexit as a “damage-limitation exercise.”

March 4: Theresa May was accused of “bribing MPs” in “a desperate measure to buy votes” in the form of a £1.6 billion fund for constituencies that voted Leave.

March 8: Theresa May warned that if her deal was rejected by Parliament for a second time, then “we may never leave at all.”

March 12: The blunt legal advice of Britain’s attorney general, Geoffrey Cox, advised members of Parliament that the legal risks of May’s deal, which was rejected by a historic margin in January, remained fundamentally the same. In other words, the deal on the table would keep the U.K. on the EU’s regulatory leash and would force Northern Ireland to heel.

https://jiss.org.il/en/mansharof-european-appeasement-of-iran-endangers-national-s

The EU’s insistence on preserving the nuclear agreement with Iran and its persistent efforts to establish a mechanism for evading American trade sanctions are encouraging Iran to escalate its subversion throughout Europe.

The European Union’s current policy is to preserve the nuclear agreement with Iran – the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – even though the American administration, led by President Donald Trump, has withdrawn from it. Ever since the US withdrawal from the nuclear agreement in May 2018, Europe has been striving to devise an economic mechanism that will enable it to evade secondary American sanctions and continue, and even increase, the volume of its trade with Iran. Despite these prolonged and intensive efforts, the EU has been unable to create such a mechanism, due to the many difficulties involved.While the EU and Iran agree on the necessity for the nuclear deal, the EU opposes other aspects of Iranian activity that Khamenei has declared are red lines for Iran. The EU opposes the Iranian effort to upgrade the range and accuracy of its missiles, and calls for restrictions on Iran’s missile program. Britain recently formulated a program of sanctions against Iran’s ballistic missile program. Implementation of this package depends, however, on the EU’s consent, which appears unlikely at the present time.

https://quadrant.org.au/magazine/2019

By the time you read this, you will know whether Brexit has or has not happened. And if it has not—either through postponement or because Theresa May’s Brexit-in-Name-Only traps Britain under EU control indefinitely—then Brexit may never happen. It may seem odd to argue therefore that even so Brexit could be one of two events this spring—the other being EU elections in May—likely to accelerate Europe’s drift towards turmoil.

The reason is that frustrating Brexit would almost certainly stimulate more hostility and conflict than simply getting on with it. Contrary to what Remainers claim, there wasn’t much of either during the referendum campaign and the first year afterwards. The driving force of Euroscepticism was the feeling that though the EU’s supranational institutions may have suited continental Europe, they were too remote, bureaucratic and undemocratic to suit the Brits. Most Eurosceptics admired much of what the EU had achieved and liked changes such as the right to live throughout Europe.

That relaxed patriotism began to change to anger in response to the hostile remarks about Britain to which EU leaders gave vent in the last year. If the country is now kept inside EU structures against its democratic will, powerful anti-EU political sentiment will grow in British politics. It would be directed not only against the EU but also against those who have blocked or reversed Brexit. Brexit betrayed would dominate UK politics indefinitely.

Thus the Brexit paradox (one of many). Reversing Brexit was intended to restore stability, but in fact it would aggravate instability. Something similar can be foreseen for the European elections.