RUTHFULLY YOURS

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/19973/syria-on-verge-of-collapse

The country’s southern province of al-Suwayda’, whose population primarily comes from the Druze minority, is currently witnessing protests on an unprecedented scale.

There has also been a definite paradigm shift in these protests: … Calls for the government to resign, for the departure of President Bashar al-Assad and a political transition are now stronger and more prevalent.

However much one might sympathise with the protests, they are probably unlikely to shift the situation in a significant way. The protestors, although immensely courageous, are too few, and have little leverage.

The current status quo means that Syria is effectively divided into three major zones: the majority of the country that is held by the Damascus-based government backed by Russia and Iran; the northeast held by the American-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (the second largest zone of control); and parts of the northwest and north of the country on and near the border with Turkey, controlled by an assortment of insurgent factions that are backed by Turkey to varying degrees.

There is much debate about the causes of Syria’s economic downturn, but it seems clear that the decline can be attributed in significant part to the Syrian government’s economic isolation and its shortage of hard currency.

In the meantime, the Syrian government has no real solutions to its economic woes. It has been offering up measures such as increasing the salaries of state employees and military personnel while also raising the price for fuel.

Some impugn government corruption but consider criticism of Assad himself to be a red line: they seem to think that he is doing all he can to try to help the country — while being surrounded by corrupt officials.

It is nonetheless important to be realistic about what these protests can achieve. The protestors remain committed for now to sustaining a civil disobedience movement that is peaceful…. Moreover, the Syrian government is adopting a non-confrontational stance towards the protests. The government seems to have issued general directives to its security forces in the province to lie low and avoid opening fire or any repressive measures unless they are attacked.

There are really only two ways in which Assad can be brought down: either by being militarily overthrown (not being contemplated by any international power) or if the elites propping up his rule decide that his presidency is no longer worth preserving…[I]t seems that those closest to Assad who could bring about his removal from within are either largely unaffected by the situation or possibly even benefitting from it.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-spies-western-governments-united-kingdom-76c0c9b3?mod=opinion_lead_pos3

The United Kingdom this week has been roiled by alleged Chinese attempts to subvert the Parliament, including a report that a parliamentary staffer was arrested in March on suspicion of spying for Beijing. Such attempts to surveil and, worse, subvert democracies appear to have become standard practice for the Communist Party. Lawmakers the world over are on notice.

The staffer, whose arrest was first reported by the Times of London, ran an internal think-tank on behalf of a group of China-hawk lawmakers. This would have brought him into contact with senior members of Parliament, a variety of policy experts and activists, and journalists covering Sino-U.K. relations. The staffer said in a statement issued by his lawyer that he is “completely innocent” of the allegations.

Speaker of the Commons Lindsay Hoyle told lawmakers that the staffer’s arrest had been disclosed to senior officials around the time it happened in the spring. But backbenchers and the general public are right to ask whether keeping a lid on the story deprived them of opportunities to hold Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s administration accountable for its handling of this case and its China policy.

This week brought a separate report that MI5, the British domestic security service, advised the Conservative Party’s central headquarters to prevent two individuals from running for Parliament as the party was preparing candidate lists in 2021 and 2022, the Times reports. The individuals allegedly had links to Beijing’s United Front Work Department, a Communist Party organ engaged in influence operations abroad.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/19960/china-taking-over-europe

Europe is in “complete denial” as China proceeds to spread its influence on the continent. At least that is the urgent, unequivocal view of Ivana Karásková, a Czech foreign influence specialist and a special adviser to European Commission Vice President Věra Jourová.

“Asked what parts of the Continent were most in the dark about Chinese influence, she added: ‘The whole of Western Europe is not looking. And yet there are cases that are so blatant.'”

In July 2023, the UK’s Intelligence and Security Committee of Parliament released a comprehensive report on China’s threat to the country, and how the Communist power seeks both political and economic influence.

The Committee found that China had “successfully penetrate[d] every sector of the UK’s economy,” and that “the Government has been so keen to take Chinese money that it has not been watching China’s sleight of hand.”

“China sees almost all of its global activity in the context of what it sees as the struggle between the United States and China, and therefore it sees the United Kingdom fundamentally through that optic. China aspires to split off from the United States countries which it thinks might be detachable, and they sometimes have a sunnily optimistic view about which countries might be susceptible to that treatment. I would say that that was their single biggest issue with the United Kingdom.” — Sir Julian Lewis, Chairman of the UK’s Intelligence and Security Committee of Parliament, July 13,2023.

China’s influence in the UK… reaches deep into the government, as well. Despite all of the above “the Government does not want there to be any meaningful scrutiny of sensitive investment deals” with China according to the report.

Meanwhile, the UK Foreign Office reportedly told UK government officials not to use the term “hostile state” about China in order not to offend the Communist country. The term, the Foreign Office said, should not be used in documents and internal messages via email and WhatsApp between advisers, civil servants and ministers.

“[T]he PRC’s influence is significantly higher in Germany than comparable European countries.” — The China Index 2022, an independent organization that tracks Chinese influence worldwide.

“A key concern is the high level of uncritical research cooperation between Germany and China, including in sensitive technological and military areas, which is one of the highest and among the most ‘captured’ globally… Huawei, BGI, ZTE, Hisilicon (Huawei-owned) and other Chinese companies collaborate with and fund projects at German universities and research institutions. Huawei alone has entered into at least 120 cooperation projects over the last 15 years, with annual budgets between 25,000-290,000 euros per project. The real number is unclear, as German universities sometimes cite their ‘academic freedom’ to refuse to answer freedom of information questions….” — The China Index 2022.

There are “90 Chinese groups in Germany with direct ties to the United Front bureaucracy in China…. Add on about 80 Chinese Student and Scholar Associations, more than 20 Confucius Institutes and classrooms, a dozen united front-aligned, Chinese-language media…an as yet unknown number of “Chinese Aid Centers”… and the phenomenon is both large and complex. There are hundreds of groups working in Germany to maintain the CCP’s ideology, values, language and goals…. from the grassroots to the elite. Europe-wide, these groups are embedded throughout civil society…and likely number over a thousand, since they are present… in every country.” — Didi Kirsten Tatlow, China expert, synopsis.cz, February 10, 2019.

“The decision to join the Silk Road [Belt and Road Initiative] was an improvised and atrocious act,” Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto said recently.

“The Chinese Communist Party has always forged links with politicians from countries whose positions…they wished to influence.” — Paul Charon and Jean-Baptiste Jeangène Vilmer, “Chinese Influence Operations: A Machiavellian Moment,” October 2021.

“The CCP also seems very active within the Italian political class, targeting the M5S [Five Star Movement] in particular.” — Paul Charon and Jean-Baptiste Jeangène Vilmer, “Chinese Influence Operations: A Machiavellian Moment,” October 2021.

“In France, as much as anywhere else, the Party has forged strong relationships with individuals enabling China to infiltrate the political sphere, defend its interests and silence critical voices…. Beyond individuals punctually and diversely recruited by the Party, the construction of a Chinese network within the French elite runs through the France-China Foundation since 2013.” — Paul Charon and Jean-Baptiste Jeangène Vilmer, “Chinese Influence Operations: A Machiavellian Moment,” October 2021.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/19961/china-ceo-whisperers-chinese-communist-party

“I was pretty dismayed at the extent of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) influence in the federal Parliament. I should probably not say any more to stay on the right side of the libel laws… [W]hat are the authorities doing about this? I think that’s the real measure of China’s influence.” — Australian professor Clive Hamilton, National Post, April 15, 2019.

Despite leaked intelligence reports about Chinese interference in Canada’s last two federal elections in 2019 and 2021, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has refused to hold a public probe into the matter.

[T]he passivity of Trudeau’s Liberal Party is “permitting China to colonize Canada.” — Tasha Kheiriddin, Canadian political columnist, National Post, August 22, 2023.

“On housing: Chinese money laundering inflated Canadian property values for decades and helped push home ownership out of reach for today’s buyers. On drug addiction: China is the main source country of fentanyl found in Canada, paving the way for thousands of overdose deaths. On the economy: China has targeted a host of Canadian industries for control, from lobsters to lithium.” — Tasha Kheiriddin, National Post, August 22, 2023.

“The CCP’s basic strategy of overseas influence and interference is to capture elites in politics, business, media, think tanks, universities, and cultural institutions…It deploys a range of techniques including flattery, financial inducement, exploitation of anti-racist and anti-American sentiment, bribery, and honey traps… Key figures in the Liberal Party have long historical ties to the CCP, not least through business connections…” — Clive Hamilton, thehub.ca, June 2, 2023.

“I’ve often said that Chinese leaders are what I call CEO whisperers, they’re very, very skillful when meeting foreigners, particularly senior foreigners. China inspires a kind of excessive affection in people and an excessive sense of wonder and a desire not to apply the usual sort of critical thinking skills, and people are seduced by it.” — Former Canadian Ambassador to China David Mulroney, thehub.ca, June 2, 2023.

China has reportedly openly been trying to influence [Canadian PM] Justin Trudeau for the past ten years. One unnamed CSIS source said that the CCP had its eyes on Justin Trudeau well before he became prime minister.

Trudeau, during his first election campaign in 2016, visited the homes of “wealthy Chinese-Canadians for private fundraising events. Some of the hosts had close connections with the CCP and had been actively promoting Beijing’s takeover of islands in the South China Sea.” — Professor Clive Hamilton, in his book, Hidden Hand: Exposing How the Chinese Communist Party is Reshaping the World.

The influence of the CCP is so pervasive that Canada’s minister of environment, Steven Guilbeault, at the same time as being Canadian minister, is also an “official adviser to the Chinese government.” – torontosun.com, August 16,

China…is a real threat to Canada’s sovereignty. “Recent Chinese actions and announcements are pointing to Beijing’s determination to have a military capability in the region that will exceed that of Canada.” — Rob Hueber, senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute and associate professor of political science at the University of Calgary, theglobeandmail.com, August 25-27, 2023

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/19969/china-military-machine

Washington should be trying to end the rule of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). It is time to declare a “people’s war” against the CCP. We are in an us-or-them fight.

The Party certainly thinks that way. In May 2019, People’s Daily, the CCP’s self-described “mouthpiece”… declared a “people’s war” against the United States.

“A people’s war is a total war, and its strategy and tactics require the overall mobilization of political, economic, cultural, diplomatic, military, and other power resources, the integrated use of multiple forms of struggle and combat methods.” — PLA Daily, an official news website of the Communist Party’s People’s Liberation Army, April 1, 2023.

Although it denies doing so, China’s regime is conducting “unrestricted warfare” against America.

Unrestricted warfare means total war. The regime’s deliberate spread of COVID-19 and support for the Chinese fentanyl gangs, for example, should be viewed in that light.

Most Americans have chosen not to see the Chinese regime’s hatred of America.

Why should Americans be concerned?

The Party, with strident anti-Americanism, is establishing a justification to strike America. As James Lilley, the great American ambassador to Beijing, said, the Chinese always telegraph their punches. They are now telegraphing punches.

[US National Security Adviser Jake] Sullivan and others are willing to impose, for instance, technology sanctions on China, but they are largely ineffective.

Xi Jinping has a policy of “military-civilian fusion,” which means that anything a civilian organization possesses can be — and is — pipelined to the Chinese military. In the Communist Party’s top-down system, every individual and entity in China must obey every Party order.

It’s a warning to America….

The U.S. Commerce Department allowed transfers of American technology to SMIC on the condition there would be no transfers to Huawei.

Why would Commerce ever think SMIC would keep that promise? The only realistic solution is to treat all Chinese parties as one and to prevent tech transfers to all of them.

Xi’s regime is mobilizing all of the country’s civilians for war. The Chinese leader never misses an opportunity to talk about it. China’s regime is clearly planning to wage “kinetic” war — the type Americans are used to seeing in the movies — on America.

Obviously, American parties, especially businesses, should not be enabling the Chinese regime to kill Americans. This means they should not be engaging in any transaction that can strengthen any part of China. We should think of all of China as military.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/19963/china-xi-new-silk-road

Under China’s Mongol rulers, the Silk Road was a private enterprise scheme, an example of capitalist free trade producing prosperity. Xi’s folie, however, is an exercise in command economy of the kind known as “socialist planning.”

At a time when the Chinese economy has entered a bumpy patch, how has Xi’s folie project done so far?

Launching “white elephants” in Sri Lanka led to the island nation’s bankruptcy and produced regime change in Colombo, while turning China into number-one hate figure for people hit by economic collapse under the burden of debt.

In some places, such as Kazakhstan, infrastructure built in Soviet era has been revamped as new; a case of painting the canary to pass it on as parrot.

In what could become a domino effect, at least 20 states are on the verge of default because half of their national budget goes for servicing foreign debt, mostly to China. Ghana and Zambia have already defaulted, and Pakistan has just been saved with a $3 billion handout from the International Monetary Fund.

(China refuses to join the Paris Club of 22 countries, top global creditors, thus avoiding rescheduling of debts. Xi can demand payment of debts he grants even before contracts end.)

Xi’s belief that his global folie would benefit China alone is also wrong. If there is a railway or a port or a canal somewhere, everyone would be able to use it, everyone including China’s real or imagined rivals such as the US, the European Union and Japan.

President Xi! Please note that humans resent getting favors even if the donor is sincere.

Ingratitude is part of human rights.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/19948/china-21st-century

[T]he news of the week is most likely the crash of China. Real estate, currency, stock markets, technology, demographics: it all fits together, and what lies ahead for China looks like stagnation at best.

There are an estimated 80 million unoccupied homes in China — a huge number, even for a giant country. While real estate has driven China’s growth for decades, it is now in danger of wrecking it.

Then came the marginalization of the Chinese currency, the yuan, presented as destined to replace the dollar. Not quite yet. The yuan may or may not be weak, but above all no one wants it as an international currency because no one trusts the reliability of the Chinese regime in the long run. No one wants to buy Chinese bonds.

“It is very hard to create a reserve currency, without attractive reserve assets. China has a problem. It wants foreigners to buy bonds but they have been selling since early 2022” — Jens Nordvig, founder and CEO of Exante, Reuters, May 16, 2023.

Regarding the concept of a dedicated currency for BRICS nations, experts have expressed their skepticism. Danny Bradlow from the University of Pretoria in South Africa, cast doubt on the practicality of reverting to the gold standard — there is not enough of it if everyone wanted it a redemption — or using cryptocurrencies. He questioned their reliability in global trade. There are serious investors who regard cryptocurrencies as essentially a conceit, like the 17th century’s Dutch tulip mania. Even then, at least you had a tulip bulb.

Chris Weafer, an investment analyst specializing in Russia and Eurasia at Macro-Advisory, labeled the proposition of a BRICS currency a “non-starter.”

It is likely that Chinese Communist Party Chairman Xi Jinping does not really understand how markets work… Why would anyone want to invest in a stock market that is constantly at the mercy of a communist ‘Prince’ and his subjective whims and predilections?

According to China’s new “Anti-Sanctions Law,” just about anything can be a crime, and one’s assets seized if the Communist Party leaders want them to be. The raid on the Shanghai headquarters of Bain & Company and the colonization (seizure) of the Hong Kong financial center by China’s imperialists also had the effect, from a strictly financial point of view, of emptying the Chinese market of all reliability.

There is also the problem that in China there are no private companies: under the Chinese Communist Party’s notion of “civil-military fusion,” all companies belong to the central government and can be raided for information at any time.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/19942/erdogan-putin-doctrine

Since Turkey’s economy is undergoing an unprecedented dive, Erdoğan needs European loans and investors.

Erdoğan seems to have a lot of wants…. [And] he wants the US Congress to endorse the sale of F-16 Block 70 aircraft to Turkey.

What to do? Erdoğan has resorted to his old trick of launching a hoax charm offensive hoping to deceive, once again, a few naïve Western minds. Too little, too late. He has been dancing within the Russian orbit to Putin’s tunes for several years so that, like a junior mafioso, he is being reminded by the capo that “once you’re in, you cannot get out.”

“We take Russian missile attacks as a Russian warning that reflects Russia’s discontent over a few Turkish initiatives… A Putin way to say ‘Hey, behave or else…'” — Senior Turkish diplomat to Gatestone, on condition of anonymity.

Once again, Western optimists are misreading Erdoğan, that he is “rekindling fraught relations with the West.” He just needs Western money, a few pats on the shoulder and legitimacy for his sultanship.

The Turkish company Beks Ship Management… help[s] Russia ship out its oil despite the Western sanctions, according to The Wall Street Journal.

An elephant painted in stripes does not make it a zebra. Erdoğan has never hidden his anti-Western ideology, or its depths.

Erdoğan comes from the ranks of Turkey’s militant political Islamism that emerged in late 1960s under the leadership of the ideologue, Necmettin Erbakan, Turkey’s first Islamist prime minister and Erdoğan’s mentor. In Erbakan’s rhetoric universal politics is simply about a struggle between the righteous (Islam) and a coalition of Zionists and racist imperialists — all else is just details. In his thinking, the Zionists support Turkey’s membership in the EU in order to “get Turkish Muslims to melt in a pot of Christianity.”

In a 2016 speech, Erdoğan talked of European countries: “These are not just our enemies… Behind them are plans and plots and other powers.” Also in 2016, he said that jihad is never terrorism. “It is resurrection…. It is to give life, to build… It is to fight the enemies of Islam.”

Also in 2020, Erdoğan wished that “God grant this nation many more happy conquests” at a celebration where he recited from the Quran, a salute to the Ottoman invasion of Christian lands. To European leaders, he said: “You are fascists in the true meaning of the world. You are veritably the link in the Nazi chain.”

Erdoğan’s anti-Western ideology has not changed. What changes from time to time is how much Western money and favors he needs.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/19946/china-preparing-for-war

Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leader Xi Jinping is rapidly militarizing his country and has instructed its army to “prepare for war” and “fight and win” it.

“Chinese ruler Xi Jinping replaced the senior leadership of China’s Rocket Force, which is responsible for almost all of China’s 400 or so nuclear warheads. These personnel changes are part of what is almost certainly the most ominous development of this time. It looks like Xi is contemplating using or at least threatening to use his most destructive weapons. In other words, China is planning to go to war.” — Gordon Chang, China expert, Newsweek, August 14, 2023.

“Xi sacked Rocket Force commander, Li Yuchao, and its political commissar, Xu Zhongbo. Neither has been seen in public since. Li’s deputy, Liu Guangbin, has also disappeared, along with Zhang Zhenzhong, a former deputy. At about the same time, Wu Guohua, deputy commander of the Rocket Force, reportedly took his own life in early July.” — Gordon Chang, Newsweek, August 14, 2023.

Xi is doubtless weighing the risk-reward ratio of launching an aggressive operation against Taiwan during US President Joe Biden’s term of office. Xi is doubtless aware that his “window of opportunity” may be closing in 18 months, accompanied by a felicitously distracting US presidential election.

The timing of any Chinese assault on Taiwan will most certainly be determined by Xi’s assessment of the domestic political strength of the Biden administration as well as the possible need for a strong diversion from his own imploding economy. Xi is also doubtless assessing the US president’s resolve to back up his repeated declarations that US forces would come to the defense of Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, as opposed to the US State Department’s immediate walk-back of the promise.

The Chinese Communist Party claims that the US is treating Taiwan as an independent state and these VIP visits violate its “One China Policy.” The truth, most likely, is that the CCP’s repeated transgressions against Taiwan’s air and maritime sovereignty, after then Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s August 2022 visit to Taiwan, are actually just part of the CCP’s military invasion exercises on its way to an all-out assault.

The CCP’s Eastern Theater Command has, in addition, established a Joint Operations Command Center, responsible for coordinating all phases of an actual invasion of Taiwan. Military moves suggestive of the CCP’s hostile intent toward Taiwan, included recent deliveries of wheeled armor vehicles to China’s coastal province of Guangdong, an area with several natural launch points for an invasion of Taiwan.

Xi Jinping and former Foreign Minister Qin Gang both warned the US about interfering in what China claims is an internal problem, and Xi added: “Western countries led by the United States have carried out all-round containment, encirclement and suppression of China, which has brought unprecedented severe challenges to China’s development.” Xi has stressed that “the Taiwan question is the core of China’s core interest” and has described as “wishful thinking” any expectation that China might compromise on the eventual incorporation of Taiwan into Communist China.

China has also rolled out a campaign of intimidation that shows China calling the shots. These began with the berating the US in Alaska, to which the State Department’s response was “deep concerns” and continued with smuggling over the US border fentanyl and other drugs that have killed an estimated 200,000 civilians.

https://www.frontpagemag.com/iranian-regime-on-edge-as-protest-anniversary-looms/

As Iran edges closer to the anniversary of the September 2022 uprisings laden with historic significance, the regime faces an unsettling reality: the prospect of renewed massive street protests reminiscent of the seismic upheavals of September 2022. Within Tehran’s inner sanctums of power and among its suppressive forces, an uneasy apprehension looms.

Against this backdrop, an intricate web of orchestrated actions and narratives by the Iranian regime against its principal opposition, is captivating global attention. The regime’s strategic orchestration of these narratives unveils a profound storyline—one that crumbles under the weight of scrutiny, exposing the regime’s underlying vulnerability and growing desperation.

Implicit in this tense atmosphere is the understanding that the oppositional group, the MEK, remains a potent catalyst behind such monumental social movements. During the 2018 uprising, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei himself conceded, based on internal intelligence assessments, that MEK activists had meticulously planned for months to orchestrate the widespread demonstrations that reverberated across the nation.

The subsequent 2022 protests further underscored the MEK’s influence, as the commander of Iran’s State Security Force candidly asserted that “rioters, led by the MEK, are willing to instigate chaos.” Such declarations, along with acknowledgments of MEK-orchestrated protests, expose Tehran’s alarm and its recognition of the MEK’s role as the main architect of unrest.

As the Iranian regime stares down this impending milestone, it artfully maneuvers its tactics to counteract the potency of the MEK during this critical juncture.

Among the recent measures, the regime has invoked INTERPOL mechanisms to apprehend MEK members. July bore witness to Tehran’s announcement of summoning 107 MEK leaders and officials for prosecution, while spreading rumors that the MEK is unsafe and scrambling to relocate to Canada. A thread of “suspicious deaths” among MEK members at Ashraf-3, the group’s residence in Albania, was deftly woven into the regime’s propaganda. Even Iran’s Judiciary Chief publicly proclaimed the regime’s determination to repatriate MEK members from foreign jurisdictions.