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French Elections: Emmanuel Macron, a Disaster by Guy Millière

Anti-West, anti-Israeli and anti-Jewish diatribes were delivered to enthusiastic crowds of bearded men and veiled women. One hundred and fifty thousand people attended.

Emmanuel Macron promised to facilitate the construction of mosques in France. He declared that “French culture does not exist” and that he has “never seen” French art. The risk is high that Macron will disappoint the French even faster than Hollande did.

On the evening of the second round of elections, people will party in the chic neighborhoods of Paris and in ministries. In districts where poor people live, cars will be set on fire. For more than a decade, whenever there is a festive evening in France, cars are set on fire in districts where poor people live. Unassimilated migrants have their own traditions.

Paris, Champs Elysees, April 20, 8:50 pm. An Islamic terrorist shoots at a police van. One policeman is killed, another is seriously wounded.

The terrorist tries to escape and shoots again. The policemen kill him. One hour later, the French Ministry of Interior reveals his name and his past. His name is Karim Cheurfi. He is a French Muslim born in an Islamized suburb of France. In 2003, he was sentenced to twenty years in prison for the attempted murder of two policemen. He was released before the end of his sentence. In 2014, he targeted a policeman and was sentenced again. And released again. In March, the police were informed that he was trying to buy military-grade weapons and that he contacted a member of the Islamic State in Syria. An inspector discovered that he had posted messages on jihadist social media networks expressing his willingness to murder policemen. The police searched his home and found several weapons and a GoPro video camera similar to the one terrorists use to film their crimes. The police and members of the French justice system did not think they had sufficient evidence place him under surveillance.

The Champs Elysées attack clearly shows that the French justice system is lax regarding dangerous people and that the French police pay only limited attention to suspects who are communicate with terrorist organizations and who seem to be hatching terrorist projects.

This terrorist attack summarizes everything that is broken in terms of security in France today.

Men with a profile similar to that of Karim Cheurfi have, in recent years, been responsible for most of the terrorist attacks in France and Belgium: Mohamed Merah, who killed three Jewish children and the father of two of them in Toulouse in 2012; Mehdi Nemmouche, who attacked the Brussels Jewish Museum in 2014 ; the Kouachi brothers, who committed the Charlie Hebdo massacre in 2015; Amedy Coulibaly, who murdered four Jews in the Saint Mandé grocery Kosher store Hypercacher; Samy Amimour and others who maimed and murdered 130 innocent people in the Bataclan theater in November 2015; Mohamed Lahouaiej Bouhlel, who drove a truck into the crowd in Nice in July 2016, killed 86 people and wounded many others, and, among others, those who beheaded a priest in Normandy a few weeks after the attack in Nice.

The successive French governments under the presidency of François Hollande showed themselves to be appallingly weak and impotent.

Europe: What Happens to Christians There Will Come Here by Giulio Meotti

“Be careful, be very careful. What has happened here will come to you.” — An elderly priest in Iraq, to Father Benedict Kiely.

Last year, more than 90,000 people chose to drop out of the Church of Sweden — almost twice as many as the year before. Meanwhile, in one year, 163,000 migrants, most of them Muslim, entered the country.

“Shouldn’t the issue of Middle Eastern Christians wake up European civilization to its core identity? Shouldn’t we in Europe and the West be telling ourselves that these attacks are also aimed at us?” — Mathieu Bock-Côté, in Le Figaro.

“I fear we are approaching a situation resembling the tragic fate of Christianity in Northern Africa in Islam’s early days”, a Lutheran bishop, Jobst Schoene, warned a few years ago.

In ancient times, Algeria and Tunisia, entirely Christian, gave us great thinkers such as Tertullian and Augustine. Two centuries later, Christianity has disappeared, replaced by Arab-Islamic civilization.

Is Europe now meeting the same fate?

In the Middle East, “Christianity is over in Iraq” due to Islamic extremism; in Europe, Christianity is committing suicide.

Within 20 years, more babies will be born to Muslim women than to Christian women world-wide; it is just the latest sign of the rapid growth that seems to be making Islam the world’s largest religion by the end of the century, according to a new study released by the Pew Research Center.

“Christianity is literally dying in Europe,” said Conrad Hackett, the head of the researchers who worked on the Pew report.

According to it, between 2010 and 2015, the Muslim population increased by more than 150 million people to 1.8 billion.

In Europe, how many Christians have been “lost”? Between 2010 and 2015, “deaths outnumbered births by nearly 6 million during this brief period”.

At this pace, Christianity will vanish in Europe.

In the same time frame, in most European countries — including Britain, Germany, Italy and Russia — Christian deaths outnumbered Christian births. “In Germany alone, for example, there were an estimated 1.4 million more Christian deaths than births between 2010 and 2015, a pattern that is expected to continue across much of Europe in the decades ahead”, Pew discovered. There are clear patterns of demographic trends, church attendance, closures of parishes and the declining number of priests.

These patterns are why Islamic leaders, such as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, have been waging a demographic war against Europe. “Have not just three but five children”, Erdogan said to Muslims in the old continent. “You are the future of Europe”. This plan is called, in Islam, hijrah: expanding Islam by migration, based on Mohammad’s flight from Mecca to Medina in 622.

Christianity in Northern Europe has already been weakened by atheism, a trend possibly accelerated by modern gains in science and medicine. The American sociologist Phil Zuckerman, after spending more than a year in Scandinavia, published a book, Society Without God. Recently, after a nationwide advertising campaign by the Atheist Society thousands of people left the Church of Denmark. Norway’s state church lost more than 25,000 members in a month. Last year, more than 90,000 people chose to drop out of the Church of Sweden — almost twice as many as the year before. Meanwhile, in one year, 163,000 migrants, most of them Muslim, entered the country.

Socialist-Run Venezuela Descends Into Chaos Massive anti-government protests reach a tipping point. May 1, 2017 David Paulin

It wasn’t supposed to turn out this way. Venezuela was going to be a workers’ paradise. President Hugo Chávez said so and declared early into his first term, in 1999, that Venezuela and Cuba would sail toward the same “sea of happiness.” Not surprisingly, Venezuela is now a workers’ hell. Authoritarian and dysfunctional, the oil-rich yet impoverished South American nation of 31 million people suffers dire food shortages; soaring levels of violent crime (28,479 deaths reported last year); and epic levels of corruption and drug trafficking. Unemployment is soaring – not surprising given that large swaths of the economy have been nationalized. Venezuela’s court-ordered seizure of a General Motors plant is the latest such calamity.

Now Venezuelans are venting their anger like never before, and this includes protesters who were once the bedrock of Chávez’s political base – the poor. In recent weeks, tens of thousands of Venezuelans have staged massive anti-government protests that turned streets and highways into seas of humanity. Security forces and armed pro-government militias – Chavista enforcers riding motorcycles — have met the protesters with force: rubber bullets, tear gas, and deadly gunfire. More than 30 people have died and hundreds injured and arrested. Protesters are demanding fresh elections and the restoration of an independent parliament. Human rights watchdogs and neighboring countries are voicing concern over the unfolding crisis.

The protests are aimed at President Nicolás Maduro, the bus driver-turned politician who succeeded the late Hugo Chávez. Maduro has double downed on Chávez’s policies. Now he embodies all the traits of a dictator in an oil-producing country whose coffers hit rock bottom as oil prices tanked. Venezuela produces little for itself. It is dependent on oil. Petrodollars, however, can no longer pay for Venezuela’s traditional style of governance: statism and bread-and-circuses populism. Maduro, for his part, blames the chaos on an “economic war” being waged against him by Washington and Venezuelan elites.

Besides massive protests, a humanitarian crisis is unfolding as thousands of refugees from Venezuela flood into neighboring Brazil on a quest for food and medical care now unavailable to ordinary Venezuelans thanks to shortages created by Venezuela-style socialism. Yet amid the chaos, well-connected Venezuelans and officials are getting rich thanks to epic levels of corruption and drug trafficking. Tareck El Aissami, Venezuela’s vice president, is accused by U.S. authorities of being a drug “kingpin.”

Portents of the coming chaos were obvious (or should have been) months into Chávez’s first term 18 years ago, even if Washington turned a blind eye to it. First came Chávez’s words, his anti-Americanism and leftist rhetoric – words that some in the Clinton administration naively believed were mere bluster. They wanted to believe Chávez was a democratic reformer who would take on Venezuela’s endemic statism and corruption. But then came Chávez’s actions.

GOOD NEWS FROM AMAZING ISRAEL: FROM MICHAEL ORDMAN

ISRAEL’S MEDICAL ACHIEVEMENTS

Pentagon funds Israeli infection test system. The US Department of Defense has awarded a $9.2 million contract to Israel’s MeMed to help it complete its pioneering platform for distinguishing bacterial from viral infections. MeMed (see here) had already received a 2.3 Euro grant from the European Commission.
http://www.globes.co.il/en/article-israeli-co-memed-wins-92m-pentagon-contract-1001185428

Robot-aided surgery fixes severe spinal fracture. (TY Eli) In the world’s first procedure of its kind, Israeli surgeons at Hadassah University Medical Center used a Mazor-Israel robot to operate on Aharon Schwartz, whose spine was broken in six places from a work accident. Schwartz is expected to be able to walk again soon.
http://www.jpost.com/Business-and-Innovation/Health-and-Science/Hadassah-docs-perform-worlds-1st-robot-aided-repair-of-severe-spinal-fracture-488831

An MRI machine for babies. Israel’s Aspect Imaging is developing a compact MRI system that can be placed in neonatal units for scanning newborns at the point of care. Aspect has just raised $30 million which will also help fund the development of a stroke-dedicated MRI System for Emergency Rooms.
http://www.globes.co.il/en/article-israeli-mri-co-aspect-imaging-raises-30m-1001185125

Fixing hernias. Israel’s Via Surgical has developed FasTouch – a next-generation system for fixing prosthetic material to soft tissues in surgical procedures such as hernia repairs. Less complications, less post-operative pain and faster recovery. FasTouch is to be distributed across the US by Progressive Medical.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/via-surgical-ltd-signs-exclusive-120000935.html
https://www.youtube.com/embed/qGgclIgO98E?rel=0

Another robot-guided needle. Ben-Gurion University and Cincinnati Children’s Hospital have founded Xact Medical, (no relation to XACT Robotics) to commercialize their Fast Intelligent Needle Delivery (FIND) system. Robotics and ultrasound guide the needle into the body – good for children, whose vascular systems are so small. https://aabgu.org/finding-a-more-accurate-needle/
http://www.timesofisrael.com/joint-israel-us-medical-tech-makes-taking-blood-easier/

The body’s garbage collector. A new video of Israeli Nobel Laureate Aaron Ciechanover, co-discoverer of Ubiquitin – used by cells to re-cycle proteins and prevent them from causing disease and cancer. Ciechanover’s research has saved millions of lives, revolutionizing health, agriculture, and the environment.
https://www.youtube.com/embed/30OaGV7gT18?rel=0

Israel’s leading bio-medical conference. (TY Atid-EDI) Israel’s 16th MIXiii-Biomed conference, beginning on May 23, will focus on aging and age-related diseases. How to monitor, diagnose and treat elderly patients using precision medicine, genetics, personal diagnostics, digital health, robotics and regenerative therapies.
http://kenes-exhibitions.com/biomed2017/ http://kenes-exhibitions.com/biomed2017/program-overview/

Israeli calcium can fight cancer. I reported previously (twice) about Israel’s Amorphical which has developed amorphous calcium to treat osteoporosis in patients who have trouble absorbing current (crystalline) calcium supplements. Amorphous calcium also reduces the acidity that certain enzymes use to generate cancer cells.
https://www.youtube.com/embed/SIkxWsDqAM0?rel=0

New Haifa center for medical research. (TY Eli) Haifa University has joined with Haifa’s Rambam Medical Center to launch a project to build a 20-story “Medical Discovery Tower”. It will focus on academic and commercial research of diseases. Two floors will be assigned to the Technion-Israel Institute of Technology.
http://www.timesofisrael.com/haifa-u-rambam-hospital-to-join-forces-on-medical-research/

For Palestinians, Potential Top Leadership Candidates Emerge Fatah party members and a Hamas leader are among those considered possible future heads of the Palestinian Authority By Rory Jones see note please

This terrorist gallery of putative successors to Abbas is, as my late mother would say “worse and worser”….all Arafat redux…..and they would be touted by the media as “moderates and partners for peace, by partisans of the two state delusions. rsk

Here is an overview of four Palestinian leaders who could assume control of the Palestinian Authority through elections or by succession:

Marwan Barghouti , Fatah party

Marwan Barghouti appearing in a Jerusalem court, in a file photo from January 2012. Photo: Bernat Armangue/Associated Press

Marwan Barghouti, 57 years old, is the most popular candidate to succeed Mahmoud Abbas as president of the Palestinian Authority. However, he is in prison serving multiple life sentences for planning attacks against Israelis. Under Palestinian law, Mr. Barghouti could run for president and hope that Israel released him in the event he won.

Ismail Haniyeh , Hamas

Ismail Haniyeh in a March photo from Gaza City. Photo: Mohammed Asad/APA Images/Zuma Press

Ismail Haniyeh, in his mid-50s, is Hamas’s most senior leader in the Gaza Strip. He is soon expected to become leader of the Islamist movement and take over from Khaled Meshaal. For Mr. Haniyeh to become Palestinian leader, his Hamas faction would have to win presidential and parliamentary elections, an outcome that would worry Israel and the international community.

Mohammed Dahlan , Fatah party

Mohammed Dahlan speaking in an interview with the Associated Press in a file photo from January 2011. Photo: Majdi Mohammed/ASSOCIATED PRESS

Mohammed Dahlan, 55, was the former Fatah head in the Gaza Strip until he fell out with Mahmoud Abbas. He lives in Abu Dhabi and has the support of some Arab nations, such as the United Arab Emirates, to return to the Palestinian territories to help lead. But just 7% of the Palestinian public want to see Mr. Dahlan take over as Palestinian leader, according to the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research.

Mahmoud Aloul , Fatah party

Mahmoud Abbas in February appointed Mahmoud Aloul as the vice president of the Fatah party, for the first time indicating he might support a Palestinian official to succeed him. Mr. Aloul, a former governor of the West Bank city of Nablus, wasn’t appointed as deputy in the Palestinian Authority, however, making it unclear whether he would succeed Mr. Abbas.

Saudi Arabia’s ‘Lavish’ Gift to Indonesia: Radical Islam by Mohshin Habib

Prior to Saudi Arabia’s attempts to spread Salafism across the Muslim world, Indonesia did not have terrorist organizations such as Hamas Indonesia, Laskar Jihad, Hizbut Tahrir, Islamic Defenders Front and Jemmah Islamiyah, to name just a few. Today, it is rife with these groups.

A mere three weeks after the Saudi king wrapped up his trip, at least 15,000 hard-line Islamist protesters took to the streets of Jakarta after Friday prayers, calling for the imprisonment of the capital city’s Christian governor, who is on trial for “blaspheming the Quran.”

In a separate crisis, crowds were demanding that Basuki Tjahaja Purnama (known familiarly as Ashok) be jailed for telling a group of fishermen that, as they are fed lies about how the Quran forbids Muslims from being governed by a kafir (infidel), he could understand why some of them might not have voted for him. If convicted, Ashok stands to serve up to five years in prison.

Accompanied by a 1,500-strong entourage, Saudi King Salman bin Abdul Aziz arrived in Indonesia on March 1 for a nine-day gala tour. He was welcomed warmly not only as the monarch of one of the world’s richest countries, but as the custodian of Islam’s two holiest cities, Mecca and Medina.

While appearing to be taking a holiday rather than embarking on an official state visit — the 81-year-old sovereign spent six days at a resort in Bali — the king had some serious business to attend to. In what was advertised as an effort to promote “social interaction” between Saudi Arabia and Indonesia — with His Majesty announcing a billion-dollar aid package, unlimited flights between the two countries and the allotment of 50,000 extra spots per year for Indonesian pilgrims to make the hajj to Mecca and Medina – it seems as if the real purpose of the trip was to promote and enhance Salafism, an extremist Sunni strain, in the world’s largest Muslim country, frequently hailed in the West as an example of a moderate Islamic society.

Smokescreens in Islam: Confusing the Public about the Facts by Denis MacEoin

Qadri’s admirable take on terrorism conceals another large elephant in the room. Islam has for centuries used violence against non-Muslims in what is considered a legitimate manner: through jihad. It is not simply that Muslim armies have fought their enemies much as Christian armies have engaged in war. Jihad is commanded in the later verses of the Qur’an, is endorsed in the Traditions and the biography of Muhammad, and codified in the manuals of shari’a law. Qadri knows this perfectly well, and at times inadvertently reveals as much in several ways.

Qadri does not just insist that Islam is a religion of peace and security. By tucking all references to jihad in footnotes in transliterated Arabic, he never has to explain what it is about and how it relates to his rulings on what is and what is not permissible.

It is hard to be a reasonably knowledgeable Muslim and not know that calls for violence pervade the Qur’an and sacred traditions, or that Islamic armies have been fighting European Christians, Indian Hindus, and others since the 7thcentury.

Islam, after all, conquered Persia, Turkey, North Africa and the Middle East, Greece, Spain and most of Eastern Europe — until its armies were stopped at the gates of Vienna in 1683.

Following the terrorist attack outside Britain’s Houses of Parliament on March 22, 2017, it was not surprising or wrong that many Muslims denounced the attack and declared it to be un-Islamic. Two days afterwards, Dr. Mohammed Qureshi, chairman of the Board of Trustees for the Shropshire Islamic Foundation, said:

We need to be united in this situation.

We should not give any religion a bad name and these people need to be dealt with in full force and there should be zero tolerance when it comes to dealing with them.

My heart goes out to these victims. And my heart goes out to the people’s families and those who are injured. I pray they all have peace in their minds.

He added:

There is no place for these acts in the religion of Islam.

The people are being radicalised and the young and vulnerable people need to be protected.

We need to disassociate this with Islam, as Islam is a religion of peace.

This view was echoed in a press release by the Foundation, in which sympathy for the dead and their families was followed by a commitment to non-violence: “as a community, we need to come together to condemn violence and hatred and work towards cohesion and tolerance”.

More recently, a document about Islamophobia published by the Green Party of the United States affirmed the purportedly peaceful character of Islam:

The highest goal of the Islamic faith is Peace. Peace is pursued over all and for Muslims the world over, ‘holy war’ has nothing to do with the concept of jihad. The Arabic word translates as ‘struggle,’ and is used a handful of times in the Quran to speak of the struggle to stay on the righteous path, to fulfill obligations to family, community and Creator, what the Islamic scholars call a higher jihad.

These claims, however, seem innocent of the verses that say:

So when you meet those who disbelieve [in battle], strike [their] necks until, when you have inflicted slaughter upon them, then secure their bonds…. And those who are killed in the cause of Allah — never will He waste their deeds. Surah Muhammad [47:4]

The Impact of the ISIS Terror Attacks on Europe By Dr. Tsilla Hershco

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The appalling terrorist assaults perpetrated by ISIS in Europe have led to significant changes in the European state of mind. By exposing the vulnerability of EU state borders, they have prompted rudimentary initiatives to secure those borders and increase counter-terror cooperation among EU member states, while also boosting the popularity of far-right parties. The attacks have given rise to a discreet cooperation between EU member states and Israel in dealing with the terrorist threat, but have not prompted the EU to change its critical position regarding Israel’s defensive measures against Palestinian terror. The moral double standard of the EU on this issue might undermine its own fight against Islamist terrorism.https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/isis-terror-europe/

The terrorist assaults perpetrated by ISIS in France, Belgium, Germany, Great Britain, and Sweden did not surprise the EU security authorities. They have often noted the threat that at least some of the thousands of Muslim youngsters who left Europe to fight for ISIS might perform acts of terror upon their return. They are also well aware that military intervention against ISIS increases the risk of terror attacks on European soil. The torrent of uncontrolled numbers of refugees from the Middle East has sharpened the warnings issued by the security authorities as well as by the media. The terror attacks have had significant repercussions, and have had an impact on EU-Israel relations.

The wave of terror has produced changes in the state of mind of many Europeans. In the past, though there were occasional terror attacks (such as in London in July 2005), Europeans felt relatively safe – so much so that they did not introduce basic security measures, such as checking bags and suitcases at train stations. The recent wave of attacks, however, has produced feelings of insecurity. Citizens of EU member states are now less hostile to security measures that had been perceived in the past as breaching their civil liberties.

The attacks exposed the vulnerability of EU state borders resulting from the Schengen Agreement, which opened borders among member states. In Brussels and Paris, the perpetrators of the November 2015 attacks crossed borders with impunity.
The EU did, in fact, take a major decision in November 2015 to strengthen control over its external borders in order to protect them from smugglers of firearms and illegal immigrants. It increased cooperation and coordination among EU member states, taking measures such as a Passengers Name Record (PNR) – not only for air travel, but for sea and train travel as well as hotel room and car rentals.

In addition, EU member state authorities took measures like decreeing a state of emergency (in France) and increasing security forces.

Another significant step was the launch in January 2016 of a new European counter-terrorism center, the ECTC, following the November 2015 decision of the Justice and Home Affairs ministers. The ECTC was designated as an enhanced central information hub through which member states can increase information sharing, bolster operational coordination, track terror financing, and detect online radicalization.

MARINE LE PEN SAVAGES MERKEL, TO HER FACE IN EU PARLIAMENT

“Some will say I am the anti-Merkel. It is an honor for me.

I don’t agree with the entirety of Marine Le Pen’s party platform but I really do get a kick out of her oratorial bombast and watching her kick Angela Merkel’s butt – and those of the unelected EU technocrats who are on the US State Department’s “unofficial payroll”.

Here, she blasts how the EU maintains itself “With blackmail, threats and intimidation…Your model is to become a servant of the USA, austerity, disloyal competition, mass spying on citizens, ‘social dumping’, migratory submersion.

“I represent another model that unites Europe’s people. One of independence, of a Europe of nations in a multipolar world, of intelligent protectionism, of individual liberties…some will call me the ‘Anti-Merkel’. I accept that label with honor. I don’t acknowledge you, Madam Merkel!

“The ‘right of self-determination’, is a ridiculous attempt at the German domination of Europe. The defense of German interests does not justify the vassalization of the other peoples of Europe. I am the voice of sovereign Europeans. They thirst for the freedom of their nations. I represent the French people, who have turned their backs on you, Mr. Hollande, the same way they turned their backs on Sarkozy – because they thirst for a France that’s free!”

A Profound Realignment in the Western World By Daniel McCarthy

Daniel McCarthy is editor at large of The American Conservative. This article first appeared in The National Interest and has been republished with permission.

The populist Right that seems to be rising throughout the advanced world has two goals. One, obviously, is to win office. But the second, which can be achieved short of actually taking power, is simply to replace the center-right. Marine Le Pen will almost certainly lose to Emmanuel Macron in a few weeks’ time. She and her supporters can count it as a victory, however, that there will be no center-right candidate in the second round of France’s presidential election for the first time since Charles de Gaulle founded the Fifth Republic.

The Left has been undergoing a shakeup of its own. Macron represents a tendency toward the pro-market center that bears some comparison with the direction in which Bill Clinton and Tony Blair took the Democrats and Labour in the 1990s. But unlike Clinton and Blair, Macron does not lead an established party. He was formerly a finance minister in the Socialist Party government of Prime Minister Manuel Valls. In picking a nominee earlier this year to succeed the disastrous incumbent Socialist president, François Hollande, the party ultimately faced a choice between the center-left Valls and a left-wing candidate, Benoît Hamon. Hamon won, but so deep is the disaffection with the Socialists that another, independent leftist, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, outperformed him in Sunday’s first-round general election.

The hard Left can take comfort in the thought that the votes for Mélenchon and Hamon together exceeded those for Macron. But this only means that the French Left’s civil war—like the backbiting between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders supporters in the Democratic Party, or between Jeremy Corbyn and his Blairite critics in the Labour Party—will continue.

As different as France, Britain and the United States may be, the similarity of ideological struggles within—as well as between—the Left and Right in all three countries suggests a profound realignment in the politics of the West. Yet where the Right is concerned, the nature of that realignment is all too often misunderstood. There is more than one kind of right-wing populism, and the kind associated with France’s National Front has so far been the least successful. The country’s traditional center-right might even chalk up its failure to get a candidate into the second-round election as a mere fluke—though this would be dangerously overconfident.

Certainly what happened this year to France’s major center-right party, the Republicans, was unusual. The leading contenders for its nomination were two former prime ministers—Alain Juppé, who had served in that role from 1995 to 1997, and François Fillon, who held the office from 2007 to 2012. Fillon prevailed and briefly became a sensation in French politics, before a financial scandal suddenly made him seem virtually unelectable. He stayed in the race and still finished less than 2 points behind Le Pen. Were it not for the scandal, he would now be headed to a runoff with Macron, and the National Front would once more have failed to repeat its performance in 2002, the only other time it advanced to the second round. Even Juppé would have had a solid chance of getting beyond round one. Only the combination of Fillon’s initial appeal and unexpected detonation doomed the Republicans—or so they might tell themselves.

This would, however, overlook the inroads that the National Front has made under Marine Le Pen. She has already improved upon her party’s previous best showing (when she ran in 2012 and received 17.9 percent of the vote) and her father’s high-water mark in the 2002 election, where he received 16.86 percent in the first-round election; this year, she won over 21 percent. Her father won less than 18 percent of the vote in the second round against Jacques Chirac, who swept to re-election by a 64-point margin. Marine Le Pen is certain to improve upon those numbers in her showdown with Macron, though he can still be expected to win easily. (Fillon and Hamon have already endorsed Macron for the second round, and while Mélenchon has not, his left-wing voters can be counted on to prefer Macron to Le Pen. Macron goes into the second round with the center-left and most of the Left and center-right behind him.)