Almost twenty years ago Margaret Thatcher wrote:
That such an unnecessary and irrational project as building a European super-state was ever embarked on will be seen in future years to be perhaps the greatest folly of the modern era. And that Britain, with her traditional strengths and global destiny, should ever have been part of it will appear a political error of historic magnitude. There is, though, still time to choose a different and a better course.
Is Brexit, the issue on which the British public will vote in a referendum on June 23, the doomed dream of those who wish to restore British national sovereignty? Or is it the nation’s political destiny? At the time of writing, two weeks after David Cameron returned from Brussels with a deal to change the terms of British membership of the European Union, online polling suggests roughly equal support for the Leave and Remain campaigns, while telephone surveys—which proved to be a more accurate guide to Britain’s 2015 general election outcome—point to the probability of a vote to remain. All polls indicate that many voters still have not decided.
The level of support enjoyed by the Remain campaign should not be taken as a reflection of enthusiasm for the European project; there is ample polling data to show that most people in Britain neither trust nor like the EU. Nor do many people think much of Cameron’s deal, which falls far short of his earlier promises to bring about fundamental change in Britain’s relations with the EU and to get back powers ceded to Brussels. It is also clear that the modest concessions he achieved are not secure, since they must be confirmed in subsequent treaties which the twenty-seven other EU members must approve and because British law remains subordinate to European law. No, it is clear that the main reason people give for saying they will probably vote to remain is that they believe leaving would represent a step into the unknown.
Remain campaigners do not sing the virtues of the EU, or promise that continued membership will lead to a golden economic future. Given the troubles in the Eurozone and the migrant crisis which has effectively killed the Schengen Agreement, such claims would not merely lack credibility; they would invite derision. Instead, while admitting that the EU has its faults and requires further change, they have launched what Eurosceptics have come to refer to as “Project Fear”, dire predictions that Britain would face a series of disasters on leaving: British families living in Europe would no longer qualify for state health care; collective security would be undermined; international co-operation to fight jihadists would be jeopardised; three million jobs would be lost; migrants in Calais would no longer be restrained from reaching Britain; air fares would rise; UK residents would be expelled from Portugal.
Much of the scare-mongering has been successfully dealt with by Leave campaigners and the Eurosceptic sections of the media. When Downing Street issued a letter signed by thirteen senior ex-military officers suggesting that Britain would be safer remaining in the EU, one of the officers protested that he hadn’t signed it and disagreed with its content, another said he had signed “only under pressure”, while other senior military men made known their opposition to it. Major-General Julian Thompson, a military historian who led the Royal Marines during the Falklands War, argued that membership had damaged Britain’s security and that intelligence—the key to effective anti-terrorist activities—could be more reliably shared with members of the Anglosphere than with members of the EU.