RUTHFULLY YOURS

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/10/another-pollster-sees-a-trump-win/

The president will carry Pennsylvania and prevail in the election, according to Jim Lee of Susquehanna Polling and Research.

T he Trafalgar Group’s Robert Cahaly is an outlier among pollsters in that he thinks President Trump will carry Michigan, Pennsylvania, or both, and hence be reelected with roughly 280 electoral votes. (I explained his thinking here.) Last week another pollster, Jim Lee of Susquehanna Polling and Research, echoed some of Cahaly’s points about shy Trump voters being missed by pollsters. “There is definitely a submerged Trump vote,” Lee said. Asked for a prediction, he hedged a little but then predicted a Trump win: “I can’t call it. If the turnout is going to be what I think, Trump wins it.”

Lee goes further than some other analysts in suggesting that pollsters may be deliberately overstating the strength of Democratic candidates in order to dampen Republican turnout. In this press release, he calls it “the very definition of ‘voter suppression’” for a poll, by Franklin & Marshall College, to claim Hillary Clinton was ahead by eleven points among likely voters in surveys taken from October 26–30, 2016. He frankly calls this “liberal bias.” Yet, Lee notes, Franklin & Marshall and its lead pollster are still taken seriously by the media and cited as nonpartisan experts. He thinks there should be professional consequences for pollsters who are so wildly inaccurate as to raise serious questions about their impartiality.

In a recent interview for WFMZ, Lee elaborated, saying, “When pollsters get the results back and they look suspicious, or they should, because they’re showing one candidate with a double-digit lead in a state that was carried by one candidate by, you know, a point or two, they should realize something’s not right and that’s where the art of polling comes in.” Lee calls attention to what he describes as “garbage polls” showing a double-digit lead for Joe Biden in the past few weeks in Pennsylvania. He sees this as a replay of 2016 and adds, “I called on the American Association of Public Opinion Research to crack down on egregious polling to tighten standards for firms that clearly don’t understand the landscape of Pennsylvania.” (According to the FiveThirtyEight survey of pollsters, Franklin & Marshall is more reliable than Susquehanna.)

https://www.israelhayom.com/opinions/simply-beloved/

Thousands of people showed up to a Trump rally in Lititz, Pennsylvania yesterday – farmers, teachers, truck drivers, doctors, grandmothers, people with disabilities, veterans. People of all types arrived to see their president, in the most personal sense possible. Even a small group of Haredi Jews from New York, and members of the Amish and Mennonite sects.

They all came as if it was a football game, wearing scarves and holding signs like they were at a party (and by the way, most were wearing masks, in contrast to the stereotype of Trump supporters). And they all get excited when you tell them you’re from Israel. When Trump talked, they waved their hats. John, who was wearing a Trump hat and mask, told me, “If Trump loses, everyone here should leave America.”

Trump was received here with fervor that’s hard to describe. This president, who people like to call “divisive,” “controversial,” “hatemongering” – is also one of the beloved. Maybe not by everyone, certainly not by the tastemakers, but in his way, he is uniting deep America, rural America, America that is connect to the values of family, the Bible, and patriotism.

That America heaps love on Trump, among other reasons because he says out loud what people are thinking in the age of political correctness. He gives them a voice, representation, legitimacy, at a time when most media outlets cast them as racist, stupid, shallow rabble. When you meet them, you discover that they aren’t exactly the dubious marginalized characters that they appear as in magazine articles about lawless militias or white supremacists thugs – they are Americas, working people, producers, entrepreneurs, members of the community, who love their country and think differently than the Democrats do. That is all they are guilty of.

Four years ago, Pennsylvania voted for a Republican candidate, Trump, for the first time since 1988. From what we saw on Monday, we could see a repeat this time.

The media portrays Trump and his supporters with contempt, and it seems as if a lot of Americans hold the media in equal contempt, and support Trump. In their eyes, he is nothing less than an American hero, and no matter what happens, and unlike the very negative media portrayal, he is for them one of the most popular presidents in history, if not the most popular of all.

http://goudsmit.pundicity.com/24688/the-odd-couple-joe-biden-and-kamala-harris

   http://goudsmit.pundicity.com  http://lindagoudsmit.com

We all know couples whose attraction to each other is confounding. We wonder, what do they see in each other? How do they find each other attractive? Often, marriage is a business arrangement. So it is in politics.

Presidents and vice-presidents are often selected by the constituency they bring to their party’s ticket. The 2020 election is no exception. The Biden/Harris ticket is an odd coupling. Biden is a corrupt, career politician, and dedicated globalist. His family financial dealings in Russia, Ukraine, and particularly communist China, make Joe Biden a national security risk and a threat to American interests worldwide.

Joe Biden is a 47-year swamp dweller whose diminished capacity is undeniable. Kamala Harris is a radical leftist Democrat who makes Bernie Sanders look like a conservative. So, what gives? Why did Biden choose Harris as a running mate?

The Biden/Harris ticket is a marriage of convenience—a political business arrangement.

The senior, corrupt, career Democrats in the party are being challenged by a radical leftist cohort of young American Marxists determined to destroy America from within, and replace our constitutional republic with socialism. WHAT?? Oh yes. The 2020 presidential election does not represent traditional Democrat/Republican differences of opinion between American patriots, whose vision for what is best for America is in conflict.

The 2020 election is a revolution without bullets! It is the consummation of the war on America, and the final battle between globalism and Americanism. Let me explain.

Senator Kamala Harris is the most extreme, radical leftist democrat in the U.S. Senate. Throughout her political career Harris has demonstrated her contempt for America and Americans. She is anti-America first, anti-constitutional governance, and a heartbeat away from the presidency. Consider what will happen if the Democrats manage to steal this election for Joe Biden—their corrupt, mentally deficient, globalist candidate. VP Kamala Harris will immediately replace Biden and become president.

https://www.city-journal.org/vice-presidents-presumptive-replacements

Joel Zinberg, M.D., J.D., is an Associate Clinical Professor of Surgery at the Icahn Mount Sinai School of Medicine and was General Counsel and a Senior Economist at the Council of Economic Advisers from 2017 to 2019.
In 2008, many who had expressed support for the presidential candidacy of John McCain changed their minds with the announcement of the governor of Alaska, Sarah Palin, as his running mate. They reasoned that McCain, 72, was too old, with a history of cancer, and that Palin was not up to assuming the presidency in the not unlikely event he became sick or died in office. Barack Obama’s campaign chided McCain for putting an obscure, former small-town mayor “a heartbeat away from the presidency.” Of course, McCain lived another ten years and would have completed two terms in office had he been elected and then re-elected.
What do we know about the current presidential candidates?
Joe Biden turns 78 next month. His fragile appearance is hard to ignore. He routinely puts “a lid” curtailing the day’s public appearances, well before noon. Throughout the campaign, his in-person appearances have been rare and brief. His medical history—including two brain aneurysms many years ago, high cholesterol, an irregular heartbeat, and multiple surgeries and physical therapy treatments—led his former physician to state nearly a year ago that “he’s not a healthy guy.”
Donald Trump is 74 and borderline obese. Based on an elevated coronary CT calcium score and a history of elevated cholesterol, he likely has some coronary artery disease, though this is common in men his age. He apparently has survived a coronavirus infection without sequelae and is back on the campaign trail.
Both men are significantly older and less fit than the previous three presidents, Barack Obama, George W. Bush, and Bill Clinton. Bush, the oldest, was only 62 when he left office after two terms. There is a not-insignificant chance that either Trump or Biden could become incapacitated or die in the next four years.

https://amgreatness.com/2020/10/26/trump-takes-the-lead-in-pennsylvania-3-per-new-poll/

A poll conducted by InsiderAdvantage for the Center for American Greatness of 400 likely voters in Pennsylvania shows Donald Trump now leading in the state. The poll was conducted the evening of October 25 by both IVR and live cell phone interviews. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent and is weighted for age, race, gender, and political affiliation. The results:

Donald Trump: 48.4%

Joe Biden: 45.5 %

Jo Jorgensen: 3 %

Undecided: 3 %

The same poll had Biden in the lead less than two weeks ago. Why? InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery explained why things have moved in Trump’s favor:

“These results indicate a stark shift in the contest. Our last survey of Pennsylvania showed Joe Biden leading Trump by three points. But that survey was before the last debate. Since the debate Trump has picked up support from younger voters, who based on our prior survey strongly oppose future lockdowns over Covid-19 spikes. Trump has also bolstered his lead among male voters by some twelve points. Biden continues to hold a seven point advantage over Trump among female voters. It would be nothing more than mere conjecture to attempt to correlate Biden’s statements on energy and fracking in the last debate contest with the shift towards Trump in this survey. However, Trump saw gains even among senior voters which have not been his strong suit this election cycle. That suggest that some issue or set of events has caused a late shift in the contest.”

Towery adds “Trump also continues to hold about 14% of the African American vote in this survey. In twenty years of polling, and as one who has polled Pennsylvania many times, I have never seen a Republican candidate consistently hold these type of numbers among black voters this close to an election. And this appears to be a developing trend in numerous states.”

Matt Towery accurately predicted a national victory for Donald Trump for major owned and operated Fox affiliates on air the evening before the 2016 presidential election. He has polled presidential races across the nation for twenty years. Specifically he has polled Pennsylvania for numerous news organizations, including the 2008 contest between Barack Obama and John McCain for Politico where his surveys showed an Obama victory. He retired from his nationally syndicated column (Creators) in 2016 and as CEO of InsiderAdvantage but returned to provide polling of the Trump-Biden contest this year.

https://amgreatness.com/2020/10/26/if-were-doing-a-mask-mandate-do-it-right/

As predicted, this week is filled with fear and recriminations about COVID-19 as Election Day nears. The Biden campaign—cognizant of the fact that the Left has turned the president’s handling of coronavirus into his biggest political weakness—along with the unhinged news media, is exploiting every case and death in a ghoulish attempt to defeat Donald Trump on November 3.

The alleged “party of science” is condemning the president for failing to “control” the novel coronavirus, which is the most unsciency thing ever because it’s impossible to control a virus without the widespread use of immunizations over a long period of time and even that isn’t a guarantee. Only a few deadly viruses in history, perhaps unbeknownst to the Democratic Party’s credentialed class, have been completely eradicated.

The annual flu vaccine can combat just a handful of influenza strains. The Centers for Disease Control admits that “Flu viruses are constantly changing so it’s not unusual for new flu viruses to appear each year.” Despite Herculean efforts to “control” influenza, a vaccine is only about 40 to 60 percent effective. Millions of Americans still contract the illness and tens of thousands, including children, die each year. This year’s vaccine targets a form of the Hong Kong flu first identified in 1968, the year I was born.

But somehow, Donald Trump was supposed to contain, control, or completely stop a novel (that means new) coronavirus within a matter of months. Joe Biden warns that if he’s elected, he will initiate all sorts of virus-killing measures, most of which already have been implemented by the Trump Administration. “I’m going to shut down the virus not the country,” Biden, who it must be noted is not an epidemiologist, promised at last week’s debate.

https://www.frontpagemag.com/point/2020/10/rep-omar-biden-will-turn-left-after-election-daniel-greenfield/

Nice of her to point this out to anyone deluded enough to think otherwise.

Rep. Ilhan Omar told “Axios on HBO” that given the way progressives have shaped Joe Biden’s policy platform, she and other members of “The Squad” expect a liberal turn from him if he’s elected.

Illiberal is the correct term.

“I know that when the policy platform was being put into place, a lot of our feedback was incorporated throughout his platform,” Omar said.

“We will have a cohort of progressives that are very clear about their objectives for wanting the implementation of Medicare for All and a Green New Deal and raising the minimum wage and not allowing for fracking,” Omar said.

“There has been a level of responsiveness … to the policies that we are advocating for that we know will have not just a future in his administration, but a future in the upcoming administrations after his,” she added.

So expect that ban on private health insurance and on any energy that doesn’t come from expensive Chinese solar panels. Along with millions of lost jobs.

And if Biden succeeds, then the socialist caucus will be influencing future Democrat administrations too.

http://joannenova.com.au/2020/10/polling-expert-explains-why-polls-are-junk-and-why-hes-betting-on-trump/

55% of Americans are better off than they were 4 years ago. It would amazing for Trump to lose to one of the weakest, low charisma candidates a major party has ever run. But he is one man against a machine that includes the media, the judiciary, and the Tech Giants and a global pandemic.
The 900 hp passion of the Trumpers is swamping the pitiful gatherings for Harris-Biden. But how much does that reflect what the 10% in the middle are thinking?

Two experts with great track records predict the winner. One says Trump. One says Biden. One of them is much more convincing than the other.

It’s worth recalling Hillary was bleaching lap tops, and practically having seizures on camera, and she still won 60 million votes just like Donald Trump did. Enthusiam counts but it isn’t everything.

Trump had this election in the bag in January for his State of The Union, then all the normal election rules were tossed into orbit.

Barnes disassembles polling data like a machine

Ciara Haley and George Szamuely talk to renowned litigator and political analyst Robert Barnes about polls and why they are of such limited usefulness.

 This man owns polling analysis. The detail. The details! And all off the cuff…

h/t To WokeBuster and RickWill