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ELECTIONS

Arick Wierson & Bradley Honan:Democrats, it’s too soon to cheer Trump’s defeat

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/09/opinions/too-soon-to-cheer-trumps-political-demise-wierson-honan/index.html

(CNN)One need not listen hard these days to hear the sound of Democratic pollsters and pundits gleefully cheering that the end of President Donald Trump’s term in power is finally in sight — Joe Biden’s Inauguration Day on January 20th, 2021.

Such Democratic groupthink goes as follows: the Covid-19 pandemic has killed more than 130,000 Americans and shows no signs of letting up; the economy has been plunged into the deepest recession in decades; and amid ongoing protests in the aftermath of George Floyd’s death, Democrats are fired up and ready to vote as never before.

Moreover, a diverse array of national polls couldn’t be clearer: Trump is in deep trouble nationally — with Joe Biden leading him by double digits.
Democratic strategists seem to believe this means that Biden has successfully cut into the President’s support among key parts of his political coalition: white voters, suburban voters, independents and voters who are middle aged and older. And the latest polling shows that even GOP strongholds like Georgia and Texas could be in play this fall.

It seems Democrats are all too keen on taking a victory lap before they pass the checkered flag.
Those declaring Trump politically finished should recall the words attributed to the famous American novelist Mark Twain. As the story goes, Twain’s death was rumored when his cousin fell ill and reporters couldn’t locate him while touring in Europe. Upon learning of his supposed demise, Twain, according to his biographer Albert Bigelow Paine, told a reporter that “the report of my death has been grossly exaggerated.”
As Paine tells it, the rumor appeared to emerge because Twain’s cousin, who shared his legal surname of Clements, fell ill and papers were reporting that Twain was possibly dying. The chattering classes may be in for a nasty November surprise. There are lots of reasons to suspect that Donald Trump may be the Mark Twain of American politics — in that reports of his political demise may be grossly exaggerated.

Liberals reserve tickets to Trump’s New Hampshire rally to try making venue look empty The group Blue Revolution is sharing an RSVP link to Trump’s rally in Portsmouth, N.H. Saturday on social media telling followers to reserve spots and not show up.

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/liberals-reserve-tickets-trumps-nh-rally-try-making-venue-look-empty

A liberal-leaning group and individuals are using social media to encourage Trump opponents to reserve tickets for the president’s upcoming reelection rally in Portsmouth, N.H., in an attempt to make the venue appear empty.

“Get your tickets and don’t go,” one Twitter user wrote Monday.

The “Make America Great Again! Rally” is scheduled for Saturday and follows one in late June in Tulsa, Okla. In advance of the rally, TikTok users reserved tickets and didn’t show up to reduce crowd size.

“If you have two minutes of your day to troll the president….Reserve two tickets and laugh knowing that’s two seats not filled,” another person tweeted about the New Hampshire rally.

“Just booked 2 tickets to Trump’s rally in NH that I won’t be going to,” a different user posted on Twitter.

Another user told his followers to put “incorrect information” in for the RSVP but use a real phone number.

A liberal Facebook group called Blue Revolution, which has more than 60,000 members, posted the RSVP link for Trump’s rally scheduled for Saturday and encouraged its members to reserve spots.

A turning tide? Public is not opening its pocketbooks to Democrats in the statehouse races By Monica Showalter

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/07/public_is_not_opening_its_pocketbooks_to_democrats_in_the_statehouse_races.html

Has the failure of the blue states finally bit the Democrats on the butt?

We all know that President Trump is struggling in the polls.  But campaign finance figures for statehouse races like these suggest plenty of trouble for Democrats. 

According to Breitbart’s Matt Boyle:

Americans significantly decreased contributions to Democrats running for state legislature seats in the second quarter as the Democrat Party has turned hard left, fundraising information announced this week shows.

The lackluster performance by Democrats at the state level could have broader national implications. First off, state-level political trends sometimes forecast later looming national trends — “from the State House to the White House,” the saying goes.

New Jersey incumbents steamroll progressive challengers in primaries

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/506325-incumbents-steamroll-progressive-challengers-in-new-jersey-house-primaries

Incumbent Democrats in New Jersey trounced progressive challengers across House primaries Tuesday, two weeks after liberals appeared likely to have scored key victories in still undecided races in neighboring New York. 

Lawmakers in all primaries were either leading their challengers by substantial margins or outright clinched the Democratic nomination in their races Tuesday night despite a surge in mailed-in ballots that will continue to be accepted until next week.

The easy wins marked a contrast to New York, where progressive Jamaal Bowman was leading Rep. Eliot Engel (D-N.Y.), the chairman of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, by 25 points in an election that is still to be called. Meanwhile, Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D), chairwoman of the House Committee on Oversight and Reform, was running neck-and-neck with Democratic challenge Suraj Patel.

By contrast, no challenger got close in New Jersey.

REP. ELISE STEFANIK (R-NY 21) MUST BE RE-ELECTED

Stefanik is the perfect antithesis to the “progressive” regressive women who have subverted the goals and the legacy of the United States Congress. There is no battle she won’t fight to defend principles and no debate she will shirk for fear of P.C. backlash. Her views on the environment, energy, regulations, foreign and domestic policies, homeland security and cybersecurity are educated and researched and fearlessly expressed.

She must win re-election in November. Please read about her at

https://stefanik.house.gov/issues and her campaign at https://eliseforcongress.com/

TEXAS DISTRICT 24-Beth Van Duyne for Congress

Whichever standard issue leftist wins in the primary in Texas District 24, she will face Republican Beth Van Duyne, former mayor of Irving, Texas in November.

In 2017 Irving Mayor Beth Van Duyne publicly pushed the state legislature to ensure Texas would be next to adopt an anti-sharia law.

https://www.bethfortexas.com/

My name is Beth Van Duyne and I’m running for Congress because I know the people of the 24th District deserve to have a strong, principled voice in Congress.

I’ve been asked what prompted me to run for public office; the answer is simple – my children. We live in a very fragile time for our nation, our families, and the future of the American Dream. Socialism is on the rise, our border crisis has never been worse, and we face constant threats from hostile nations willing to use cyber-attacks, nuclear weapons, and terrorist jihad. When I think about my two children, I want them to have the same opportunities in life that I did; I want them to be able to grow up safe and proud of our country.

This Democrat (Kim Olson- TX -District 24)Is So Outraged She Doesn’t Mind if Rioters ‘Burn It to the Ground’ By Tyler O’Neil

https://pjmedia.com/election/tyler-o-neil/2020/06/11/texas-dem-even-if-people-loot-so-what-burn-it-to-the-ground-n518917

When protests over the police killing of George Floyd devolved into looting, vandalism, and arson across America, destroying black lives, black livelihoods, and black monuments, Democrats and liberals shamefully downplayed or even excused the violence because the perpetrators agreed with their political agenda. Yet it seems none have proven quite as vocal as a Democrat running for U.S. House in Texas’s 24th congressional district.

In a live digital event on Tuesday, Kim Olson complained about police snipers stationed on a roof at a protest she attended in Dallas, Texas.

“They had snipers on the roof, what the hell you got snipers on the roof for in a peaceful march? Even if people loot, so what? Burn it to the ground, if that’s what it’s gonna take to fix our nation,” Olson said in video obtained by The Washington Examiner. “I don’t think — but I’m just saying, what are you going to do? Shoot us as we protest?”

“I mean, we really have fundamentally pivoted the militarization of our police force. … It used to be ‘protect and serve,’” she complained.

Olson made the comment during a long answer to a question about her position on far-left calls to disband or defund police departments. The candidate began by admitting that while “defunding” is a “tough word,” she supports shifting funding toward rehab centers and social workers.

Nancy Mace:First Female Graduate of The Citadel Wins GOP Primary in SC-01 by Reagan McCarthy

https://nancymace.org/

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/reaganmccarthy/2020/06/10/first-female-citadel-grad-wins-primary-insc01-n2570400

Republicans nominated another strong, female candidate during Tuesday night’s primaries. Nancy Mace, a former state representative and the first female graduate of The Citadel, clinched the GOP nomination to take on incumbent Democratic Congressman Joe Cunningham in South Carolina’s first congressional district. The Republican primary was hotly contested between four contenders, in a district that President Trump carried by 13 points. 

2020 House races: The House seats Democrats and GOP are trying to flip in 2020 By Aaron Navarro

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/2020-house-races-texas-iowa-georgia-lucy-mcbath-oklahoma-kendra-horn/

Here are some of the most interesting and competitive House races to watch: 

– CONGRESS- HOUSE-CLEANING

Here are some of the most interesting and competitive House races to watch:

Oklahoma: 5th District

Incumbent: Kendra Horn (D)

Challengers:

R-Stephanie Bice, R Terry Neese (Primary on June 30, nine total challengers)

Republicans are holding their primary on June 30, and the top two fundraisers in the field are businesswoman Terry Neese and state Senator Stephanie Bice. Horn maintains a massive fundraising advantage and the largest county, Oklahoma County, which Horn won in 2018, is seeing shifting demographics that favor Democrats.

South Carolina: 1st District

Incumbent: Joe Cunningham (D)
Challengers: Nancy Mace, Katherine Landing (Primary on June 9, four total challengers)

In 2020, the Republican challengers are continuing to promote their loyalty to the president. State representative Nancy Mace, who leads the Republican field in fundraising, previously worked on the Trump campaign as a field director.

There may also be some impact from the  surprisingly competitive Senate race between powerful Republican incumbent Lindsey Graham and Democrat Jaime Harrison. 

New Mexico: 2nd District

Incumbent: Xochitl Torres Small (D)

Challengers: Claire Chase, Yvette Herrell, Chris Mathys (Primary on June 2)

The three Republican candidates have started to build up a combative primary, filled with litmus tests on each candidate’s loyalty to the president.

Georgia: 6th District

Incumbent: Lucy McBath (D)

Challengers: Karen Handel, Mykel Lynn Barthelemy, Blake Harbin, Joe Profit, Paulette Smith (Primary on June 9)

While she’s far ahead of the field in fundraising, Handel will first have to get through four other Republicans, who have argued she is not the candidate to win back the district. Handel has been endorsed by Georgia Governor Brian Kemp, the top three House Republican members and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who previously represented the seat.

Georgia: 7th District

Incumbent: Open
Challengers: Carolyn Bordeaux (D), Renee Unterman (R), Dr. Richard Dean McCormick (R), Lynne Homrich (R) (Primary on June 9, 14 total candidates)

GOP Congressman Ron Woodall has been in office since 2010, but after a razor-thin reelection in 2018, announced his retirement in February 2019.

Among the Republican candidates are state Senator Renee Unterman, Dr. Richard Dean McCormick and former Home Depot executive Lynne Homrich

Illinois: 13th District

Incumbent: Rodney Davis (R)
Challenger: Betsy Dirksen Londrigan (D)

In 2018, Congressman Rodney Davis beat Democrat Betsy Dirksen Londrigan by less than 1%. Londrigan is running again .

New York: 22nd District

Incumbent: Anthony Brindisi (D)
Challengers: Claudia Tenney (R), Georgia Phillips (R) (Primary on June 23)
Cook Political Report: Toss-up

Brindisi was able to win his Republican leaning upstate district by focusing on his moderate profile, becoming the first Democrat to flip the seat in 60 years. He previously served as a state assemblyman representing Utica, New York, the largest city in the congressional district.

California: 21st District

Incumbent: T.J. Cox (D)
Challenger: David Valadao (R)

Cox had one of the closest midterm wins, beating incumbent Republican Congressman David Valadao by less than 1,000 votes. Valadao is running again in 2020 and the March 3 primaries showed his support is still there, as he lead Cox by 11 points in the jungle primary.

IOWA: All

(Primary on June 2)
All four Congressional seats in the state are expected to be in play this cycle, with two freshman Democrats, one controversial Republican incumbent and one open seat.

In Iowa’s 1st District, state Representative Ashley Hinson is trying to unseat freshman Democrat Abby Finkenauer. Hinson is a Cedar Rapids TV anchor and has raised $1.8 million this cycle, $1 million less than Finkenauer.

In the Southeast portion of the state, the 2nd District, the seat is left open by Democrat Dave Loebsack, who is retiring after seven terms. Democrats have coalesced around Rita Hart, a 2018 lieutenant governor nominee who also served in the state senate for 6 years. The leading Republicans include Bobby Schilling, a former Quad City-area Illinois Congressman, and state senator Mariannette Miller-Meeks, who ran against Loebsack in 2014.

A rematch is set in the 3rd District, currently held by freshman Democrat Cindy Axne. Former Republican Congressman David Young narrowly lost to Axne by 2 points, and announced his 2020 campaign a year ago. Young has received the support of several of Iowa’s former representatives in his bid for the Des Moines area district, though still has to face Axne’s $2.6 million cash on hand.

Lastly, Republican Congressman Steve King is facing two formidable opponents on both sides in Iowa’s 4th District. GOP State Senator Randy Feenstra has outraised King, who was notably kicked off his House committees last year in a rebuke to his comments about white supremacy.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has endorsed Feenstra running against King. Democrat J.D. Scholten has picked up early support from the national party.

TEXAS 

House Republicans have the two flipped seats on their target list. House Republicans like their candidate in Texas’ 7th District, West Point graduate Wesley Hunt, who is trying to try and unseat freshman Democrat Lizzie Fletcher.

House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy in particular was an advocate for Hunt. Fletcher, like many other House Democrats in competitive districts, has enjoyed a strong quarter-after-quarter in fundraisin.

Republicans have a runoff incoming in Texas’ 22nd and the 23rd to filter out their eventual candidate. After three terms of close margins of victory, Republican Will Hurd’s massive Texas 23rd District was already a top priority for Democrats, even before he ended up announcing his retirement. The 2018 Democratic candidate, Gina Ortiz Jones, is running again and has built a substantial war chest with $2.3 million.

Republicans have supported candidates like Genevieve Collins in Texas’ 32nd and Beth Van Duyne in Texas’ 24th. Another primary to watch here is in Texas’ 13th District, where former White House physician Ronny Jackson is in a Republican runoff against Josh Winegarner.

Honorable mentions

Maine’s 2nd District, represented by Congressman Jared Golden, is another one of those “ruby red” districts Republicans are targeting because of Mr. Trump’s double-digit win in 2016. His main challengers, state Senator Eric Brakey and former State Representative Dale Crafts, have a combined $300,000 cash on hand, compared to Golden’s $1.7 million.

As a Democrat in 2018, Jeff Van Drew flipped New Jersey’s 2nd District by 7 points. Democratic candidates Brigid Callahan Harrison and Amy Kennedy are currently running to unseat Van Drew..

In Michigan’s 13th District, Detroit City Council president Brenda Jones is trying to beat Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib in their August 4 Democratic primary. Jones, who entered the race in late March, lost to Tlaib in their 2018 primary matchup by only 900 votes.

– CONGRESS- HOUSE-CLEANING

Here are some of the most interesting and competitive House races to watch: 

Oklahoma: 5th District

Incumbent: Kendra Horn (D)

Challengers:

R-Stephanie Bice, R Terry Neese (Primary on June 30, nine total challengers)

Republicans are holding their primary on June 30, and the top two fundraisers in the field are businesswoman Terry Neese and state Senator Stephanie Bice. Horn maintains a massive fundraising advantage and the largest county, Oklahoma County, which Horn won in 2018, is seeing shifting demographics that favor Democrats.

South Carolina: 1st District

Incumbent: Joe Cunningham (D)
Challengers: Nancy Mace, Katherine Landing (Primary on June 9, four total challengers)

In 2020, the Republican challengers are continuing to promote their loyalty to the president. State representative Nancy Mace, who leads the Republican field in fundraising, previously worked on the Trump campaign as a field director. 

There may also be some impact from the  surprisingly competitive Senate race between powerful Republican incumbent Lindsey Graham and Democrat Jaime Harrison. 

New Mexico: 2nd District

Incumbent: Xochitl Torres Small (D)

Challengers: Claire Chase, Yvette Herrell, Chris Mathys (Primary on June 2)

The three Republican candidates have started to build up a combative primary, filled with litmus tests on each candidate’s loyalty to the president.

Georgia: 6th District

Incumbent: Lucy McBath (D)

Challengers: Karen Handel, Mykel Lynn Barthelemy, Blake Harbin, Joe Profit, Paulette Smith (Primary on June 9)

While she’s far ahead of the field in fundraising, Handel will first have to get through four other Republicans, who have argued she is not the candidate to win back the district. Handel has been endorsed by Georgia Governor Brian Kemp, the top three House Republican members and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who previously represented the seat. 

Georgia: 7th District

Incumbent: Open
Challengers: Carolyn Bordeaux (D), Renee Unterman (R), Dr. Richard Dean McCormick (R), Lynne Homrich (R) (Primary on June 9, 14 total candidates)

GOP Congressman Ron Woodall has been in office since 2010, but after a razor-thin reelection in 2018, announced his retirement in February 2019.

Among the Republican candidates are state Senator Renee Unterman, Dr. Richard Dean McCormick and former Home Depot executive Lynne Homrich

Illinois: 13th District

Incumbent: Rodney Davis (R)
Challenger: Betsy Dirksen Londrigan (D)

In 2018, Congressman Rodney Davis beat Democrat Betsy Dirksen Londrigan by less than 1%. Londrigan is running again .

New York: 22nd District

Incumbent: Anthony Brindisi (D)
Challengers: Claudia Tenney (R), Georgia Phillips (R) (Primary on June 23)
Cook Political Report: Toss-up

Brindisi was able to win his Republican leaning upstate district by focusing on his moderate profile, becoming the first Democrat to flip the seat in 60 years. He previously served as a state assemblyman representing Utica, New York, the largest city in the congressional district.

California: 21st District

Incumbent: T.J. Cox (D)
Challenger: David Valadao (R)

Cox had one of the closest midterm wins, beating incumbent Republican Congressman David Valadao by less than 1,000 votes. Valadao is running again in 2020 and the March 3 primaries showed his support is still there, as he lead Cox by 11 points in the jungle primary. 

IOWA: All

(Primary on June 2)
All four Congressional seats in the state are expected to be in play this cycle, with two freshman Democrats, one controversial Republican incumbent and one open seat.

In Iowa’s 1st District, state Representative Ashley Hinson is trying to unseat freshman Democrat Abby Finkenauer. Hinson is a Cedar Rapids TV anchor and has raised $1.8 million this cycle, $1 million less than Finkenauer. 

In the Southeast portion of the state, the 2nd District, the seat is left open by Democrat Dave Loebsack, who is retiring after seven terms. Democrats have coalesced around Rita Hart, a 2018 lieutenant governor nominee who also served in the state senate for 6 years. The leading Republicans include Bobby Schilling, a former Quad City-area Illinois Congressman, and state senator Mariannette Miller-Meeks, who ran against Loebsack in 2014.

A rematch is set in the 3rd District, currently held by freshman Democrat Cindy Axne. Former Republican Congressman David Young narrowly lost to Axne by 2 points, and announced his 2020 campaign a year ago. Young has received the support of several of Iowa’s former representatives in his bid for the Des Moines area district, though still has to face Axne’s $2.6 million cash on hand. 

Lastly, Republican Congressman Steve King is facing two formidable opponents on both sides in Iowa’s 4th District. GOP State Senator Randy Feenstra has outraised King, who was notably kicked off his House committees last year in a rebuke to his comments about white supremacy. 

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has endorsed Feenstra running against King. Democrat J.D. Scholten has picked up early support from the national party.

TEXAS 

House Republicans have the two flipped seats on their target list. House Republicans like their candidate in Texas’ 7th District, West Point graduate Wesley Hunt, who is trying to try and unseat freshman Democrat Lizzie Fletcher. 

House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy in particular was an advocate for Hunt. Fletcher, like many other House Democrats in competitive districts, has enjoyed a strong quarter-after-quarter in fundraisin.

Republicans have a runoff incoming in Texas’ 22nd and the 23rd to filter out their eventual candidate. After three terms of close margins of victory, Republican Will Hurd’s massive Texas 23rd District was already a top priority for Democrats, even before he ended up announcing his retirement. The 2018 Democratic candidate, Gina Ortiz Jones, is running again and has built a substantial war chest with $2.3 million. 

Republicans have supported candidates like Genevieve Collins in Texas’ 32nd and Beth Van Duyne in Texas’ 24th. Another primary to watch here is in Texas’ 13th District, where former White House physician Ronny Jackson is in a Republican runoff against Josh Winegarner. 

Honorable mentions

Maine’s 2nd District, represented by Congressman Jared Golden, is another one of those “ruby red” districts Republicans are targeting because of Mr. Trump’s double-digit win in 2016. His main challengers, state Senator Eric Brakey and former State Representative Dale Crafts, have a combined $300,000 cash on hand, compared to Golden’s $1.7 million.

As a Democrat in 2018, Jeff Van Drew flipped New Jersey’s 2nd District by 7 points. Democratic candidates Brigid Callahan Harrison and Amy Kennedy are currently running to unseat Van Drew.. 

In Michigan’s 13th District, Detroit City Council president Brenda Jones is trying to beat Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib in their August 4 Democratic primary. Jones, who entered the race in late March, lost to Tlaib in their 2018 primary matchup by only 900 votes.

Oklahoma: 5th District

Incumbent: Kendra Horn (D)
Challengers: Stephanie Bice, Terry Neese (Primary on June 30, nine total challengers)
Cook Political Rating: Toss-up

Horn won the Oklahoma City-area district in 2018 in a surprise upset for Democrats, beating Republican incumbent Steve Russell by less than 2 points. While Republicans held the seat for nearly 44 years, state legislative flips in the district showed a Democratic trend building right before Horn’s victory. Her campaign’s hyper-local approach has continued on into 2020, though Republicans have tried to tie her to impeachment and presidential politics to nationalize the race in a district Mr. Trump won by 13 points. 

Republicans are holding their primary on June 30, and the top two fundraisers in the field are businesswoman Terry Neese and state Senator Stephanie Bice. Horn maintains a massive fundraising advantage and the largest county, Oklahoma County, which Horn won in 2018, is seeing shifting demographics that favor Democrats. The state is a safe bet for Mr. Trump to win in the presidential race, and with no Senate or gubernatorial election, Horn’s race is the most competitive to watch in the state. If Republicans are going to have a chance of retaking the House, it’ll be because of districts like these. 

South Carolina: 1st District

Incumbent: Joe Cunningham (D)
Challengers: Nancy Mace, Katherine Landing (Primary on June 9, four total challengers)
Cook Political Rating: Toss-up

After becoming the first Democrat to win this district in 30 years, Cunningham now has to keep the Charleston district that Mr. Trump won by 13 points in 2016. 

Former Congressman Mark Sanford, who represented the district since 2013, was ousted in a contentious Republican primary in favor of a more Trumpian candidate for the midterms. In 2020, the Republican challengers are continuing to promote their loyalty to the president. State representative Nancy Mace, who leads the Republican field in fundraising, previously worked on the Trump campaign as a field director. 

City councilwoman Kathy Landing has aired an ad calling Cunningham a “self-promoting talker” and says “we need adults in Congress to help President Trump restore stability.” 

Candidate Chris Cox founded the national “Bikers for Trump” group.

While the district has voted Republican by double digits in the past five presidential elections, Cunningham has been able to raise over $3.8 million for his reelection effort. There may also be some impact from the  surprisingly competitive Senate race between powerful Republican incumbent Lindsey Graham and Democrat Jaime Harrison. 

A “Path to Victory” memo by Harrison’s campaign specifically cites Cunningham’s Lowcountry district as a sign of white suburban voters moving away from Republicans. 

New Mexico: 2nd District

Incumbent: Xochitl Torres Small (D)
Challengers: Claire Chase, Yvette Herrell, Chris Mathys (Primary on June 2)
Cook Political Rating: Toss-up

A competitive GOP primary created an avenue for Torres Small to flip this rural New Mexico district in 2018 that Mr. Trump won by 10 points. So far, it seems like Torres Small could see a similar narrative play out in 2020. 

The three Republican candidates have started to build up a combative primary, filled with litmus tests on each candidate’s loyalty to the president. Claire Chase, a former governmental relations head for an oil company, leads the pack in fundraising. State Representative Yvette Herrell ran in 2018, and has already gone after Chase in an attack ad displaying old anti-Trump Facebook comments. 

“She’s Never Trump, so we’re Never Claire,” the ad declares. Chase has already retorted with an attack ad against Herrell, and told the Santa Fe New Mexican she was “completely wrong about the president. He has been incredible for our district.” 

Mr. Trump’s margin of victory here was more than 3 points higher than Mitt Romney’s in 2012, but Torres Small has nearly $3 million in the bank. She has sought to distance herself from being branded as a “socialist” by Republicans, and most recently, criticized Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for celebrating a drop in oil and gas prices. 

Georgia: 6th District

Incumbent: Lucy McBath (D)
Challengers: Karen Handel, Mykel Lynn Barthelemy, Blake Harbin, Joe Profit, Paulette Smith (Primary on June 9)
Cook Political Rating: Toss-up

In a 2017 special election, Democrat Jon Ossoff came within 0.4 percentage points of defeating Republican Karen Handel in one of the most expensive House races in history. McBath ended up defeating Handel by 1 point in 2018, and Handel is looking for a rematch to claim a seat she held for 18 months. 

While she’s far ahead of the field in fundraising, Handel will first have to get through four other Republicans, who have argued she is not the candidate to win back the district. Handel has been endorsed by Georgia Governor Brian Kemp, the top three House Republican members and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who previously represented the seat. 

While Mr. Trump won Georgia in 2016 by 5 points, he won this district by a slimmer 1.5 points. McBath is well known as a gun control advocate, after being motivated to run after her son’s murder nearly seven years ago, she is likely to bring up Handel’s “A” rating from the National Rifle Association in a general election race. 

Democrats are also looking to tie Handel to the contentious Republican Senate primary and to Governor Brian Kemp, whose popularity has been declining. McBath also has $2.9 million cash on hand to supplement another race against Handel, or whomever ends up taking the nomination 

Georgia: 7th District

Incumbent: Open
Challengers: Carolyn Bordeaux (D), Renee Unterman (R), Dr. Richard Dean McCormick (R), Lynne Homrich (R) (Primary on June 9, 14 total candidates)

Cook Political Rating: Toss-up

GOP Congressman Ron Woodall has been in office since 2010, but after a razor-thin reelection in 2018, announced his retirement in February 2019. Thirteen people have announced they are running for the district seat, including Democratic professor Carolyn Boredeaux, who lost by less than 450 votes to Woodall in the 2018 midterms. Boredeaux leads the pack in fundraising, though Democratic state Senator Zahra Karinshak is also running and has over $500,000 cash on hand. 

Among the Republican candidates are state Senator Renee Unterman, Dr. Richard Dean McCormick and former Home Depot executive Lynne Homrich. While Mr. Trump won the district by 6 points, its two counties, Forsyth and Gwinnett, split the vote. Forsyth is a majority white and voted overwhelmingly for Mr. Trump but Gwinnett is more diverse and narrowly voted for Clinton in 2016.

Illinois: 13th District

Incumbent: Rodney Davis (R)
Challenger: Betsy Dirksen Londrigan (D)
Cook Political Report: Toss-up

In 2018, Congressman Rodney Davis beat Democrat Betsy Dirksen Londrigan by less than 1%. Londrigan is running again and has locked up the Democratic nomination, and her campaign and national Democrats have already been hitting Davis hard on healthcare, promoting a local interview where he came out against reopening the enrollment period during the pandemic.

Davis won the central Illinois seat in 2012, beating Democrat David Gill by 0.3%, and saw a nearly 20-point win when Mr. Trump was on the ballot in 2016. The two are in a dead heat so far in fundraising, though Londrigan holds a slight edge with $1.6 million in the bank compared to Davis’ $1.5 million. 

One factor is Champaign County, the most populous county in the district and home to the University of Illinois. Londrigan got more than 41,000 votes from this county in 2018, but the University is considering a hybrid of in-person and remote learning this fall, potentially impacting how many students might be around to vote. 

New York: 22nd District

Incumbent: Anthony Brindisi (D)
Challengers: Claudia Tenney (R), Georgia Phillips (R) (Primary on June 23)
Cook Political Report: Toss-up

Brindisi was able to win his Republican leaning upstate district by focusing on his moderate profile, becoming the first Democrat to flip the seat in 60 years. He previously served as a state assemblyman representing Utica, New York, the largest city in the congressional district. His 2018 opponent, Claudia Tenney, held the seat for one term with a 5-point win in 2016, and outside independent groups spent $16 million for that race.

Tenney is running again for the seat this year and was already endorsed by Mr. Trump ahead of the June primary. So far, she lags Brindisi in fundraising efforts by a wide margin, and has tried to tie the freshman congressman to wider Democratic figures like former Vice President Joe Biden in a district Mr. Trump won by 15 points. Since the pandemic, she has also associated Brindisi with New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, Tweeting that Brindisi is Cuomo’s “biggest ally.” 

California: 21st District

Incumbent: T.J. Cox (D)
Challenger: David Valadao (R)
Cook Political Report: Toss-up

This Central Valley district certainly favored Democrats the last presidential cycle, with Clinton winning by 15 points in 2016. However, Cox had one of the closest midterm wins, beating incumbent Republican Congressman David Valadao by less than 1,000 votes. Valadao is running again in 2020 and the March 3 primaries showed his support is still there, as he lead Cox by 11 points in the jungle primary. 

Cox has also been dogged by local scandals, and after seeing a swath of California seats go Democratic in 2018, Republicans are hoping to capitalize on this and Valadao’s name ID to reclaim this seat. Democrats are looking to build up Mr. Trump’s presence in a district where he is already highly unpopular, and Cox has already sent out fundraising emails tying Valadao to Mr. Trump. 

IOWA: All

(Primary on June 2)
All four Congressional seats in the state are expected to be in play this cycle, with two freshman Democrats, one controversial Republican incumbent and one open seat. Trump won the three districts 

held by Democrats by an average of about 4 points. In Iowa’s 1st District, state Representative Ashley Hinson is trying to unseat freshman Democrat Abby Finkenauer. Hinson is a Cedar Rapids TV anchor and has raised $1.8 million this cycle, $1 million less than Finkenauer. 

In the Southeast portion of the state, the 2nd District, the seat is left open by Democrat Dave Loebsack, who is retiring after seven terms. Democrats have coalesced around Rita Hart, a 2018 lieutenant governor nominee who also served in the state senate for 6 years. The leading Republicans include Bobby Schilling, a former Quad City-area Illinois Congressman, and state senator Mariannette Miller-Meeks, who ran against Loebsack in 2014.

A rematch is set in the 3rd District, currently held by freshman Democrat Cindy Axne. Former Republican Congressman David Young narrowly lost to Axne by 2 points, and announced his 2020 campaign a year ago. Young has received the support of several of Iowa’s former representatives in his bid for the Des Moines area district, though still has to face Axne’s $2.6 million cash on hand. 

Lastly, Republican Congressman Steve King is facing two formidable opponents on both sides in Iowa’s 4th District. GOP State Senator Randy Feenstra has outraised King, who was notably kicked off his House committees last year in a rebuke to his comments about white supremacy. 

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has endorsed Feenstra and has already begun running an ad against King. Democrat J.D. Scholten has picked up early support from the national party, a perk of connecting with all the presidential candidates who came to visit during caucus season. After coming up three points short of unseating King in 2018, Scholten has to try and beat the Republican in a district Mr. Trump overwhelmingly won by almost 30 points. 

TEXAS 

After flipping two seats in 2018, House Democrats are bullish about competing in the Lone Star state and adding to their ranks. Changing demographics and trends of suburbs drifting away from Mr. Trump already had Democrats feeling optimistic, but a pattern of House Republican retirements has only reinforced their thinking. 

Still, this is a historically red state and House Republicans have the two flipped seats on their target list. House Republicans like their candidate in Texas’ 7th District, West Point graduate Wesley Hunt, who is trying to try and unseat freshman Democrat Lizzie Fletcher. 

House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy in particular was an early advocate for Hunt. Fletcher, like many other House Democrats in competitive districts, has enjoyed a strong quarter-after-quarter in fundraising, which will help in the Houston-area media market. House freshman Collin Allred is also a targeted Democrat, as both he and Fletcher represent districts Clinton won narrowly in 2016.

While six Texas House Republicans have announced retirements, three seats are in places Democrats lost by less than 5 percent in 2018. Fundraising in these seats have been tight among the candidates, though Republicans have a runoff incoming in Texas’ 22nd and the 23rd to filter out their eventual candidate. After three terms of close margins of victory, Republican Will Hurd’s massive Texas 23rd District was already a top priority for Democrats, even before he ended up announcing his retirement. The 2018 Democratic candidate, Gina Ortiz Jones, is running again and has built a substantial war chest with $2.3 million. 

After seeing a recent record low number of women Republican House members, Republicans have supported candidates like Genevieve Collins in Texas’ 32nd and Beth Van Duyne in Texas’ 24th. Another primary to watch here is in Texas’ 13th District, where former White House physician Ronny Jackson is in a Republican runoff against Josh Winegarner. 

Honorable mentions

Maine’s 2nd District, represented by Congressman Jared Golden, is another one of those “ruby red” districts Republicans are targeting because of Mr. Trump’s double-digit win in 2016. His main challengers, state Senator Eric Brakey and former State Representative Dale Crafts, have a combined $300,000 cash on hand, compared to Golden’s $1.7 million.

As a Democrat in 2018, Jeff Van Drew flipped New Jersey’s 2nd District by 7 points. Now running as a Republican in a District Mr. Trump won by 5 points, Van Drew’s primary field cleared a bit when businessman David Richter decided to run in the 3rd District instead. Democratic candidates Brigid Callahan Harrison and Amy Kennedy are currently running to unseat Van Drew. Harrison, a political science professor, lined up local support early. However, Kennedy, a teacher and part of the famed political family, leads in fundraising and has used it to build a bigger campaign operation. 

In Michigan’s 13th District, Detroit City Council president Brenda Jones is trying to beat Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib in their August 4 Democratic primary. Jones, who entered the race in late March, lost to Tlaib in their 2018 primary matchup by only 900 votes.

First published on May 29, 2020 / 6:02 AM

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Red Wave Coming? GOP Sweeps Election in Virginia Democratic Stronghold

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/elliebufkin/2020/05/22/red-wave-coming-democratic-stronghold-city-in-virginia-stunned-by-gop-sweep-n2569269

With the November general election less than six months away, results of local and special elections are giving an eye-opening preview of possible voter behavior. While recent polls still show Democratic hopefuls, including presumed presidential nominee Joe Biden, edging out their Republican counterparts in competitive parts of the country, actual ballots are telling a very different story. 

Special congressional elections in California and Wisconsin this month both yielded Republican victors after Democrats launched strong campaigns in both races. In California, Republican Mike Garcia beat Democrat Christy Smith by almost 10 points after receiving 10,000 fewer votes in the primary election just two months earlier. Garcia replaced Democrat Katie Hill, who resigned at the end of 2019, flipping a California House seat from blue to red for the first time in more than 20 years. 

As stunning as Garcia’s resounding victory for Republicans in California was, however, a shocking GOP blowout in the Staunton, Virginia city council election this week has given Democrats a reason to be alarmed. 

Like many cities in Virginia through the last several years, Staunton has trended toward liberal candidates in national and municipal elections, supporting Barack Obama in both the 2008 and 2012 elections, and Hillary Clinton in 2016. The city also helped buoy Democratic governors Terry McAuliffe and Ralph Northam to victory in the past two gubernatorial elections while consistently electing a majority of Democrats to the city council.