Displaying posts categorized under

ELECTIONS

Iowa Poll Shows DeSantis, Not Haley, Is Trump’s Only Real Competition By: Jeffrey H. Anderson

https://thefederalist.com/2023/11/03/iowa-poll-shows-desantis-not-haley-is-trumps-only-real-competition/

Establishment Republicans are hopeful Nikki Haley can win in Iowa, but the latest polling of likely Iowa caucus-goers crushes that dream.

The corporate media’s headlines from a recent Des Moines Register poll in Iowa are that Nikki Haley has caught Ron DeSantis, and that she’s on the rise while he’s falling. In truth, the poll reveals that the Hawkeye State continues to look like a two-horse race between DeSantis and the clear front-runner, Donald Trump.

Yes, Haley’s support rose from 6 percent in the prior Des Moines Register poll (taken in August) to 16 percent in this one, while support for DeSantis dipped from 19 to 16 percent. (Trump’s support rose 1 percentage point, from 42 to 43 percent.) But essentially every other indicator in the newly released polling suggests that DeSantis is Trump’s only real competition in this pivotal opening state.

When likely Iowa caucus-goers were asked to name the two candidates whom they like the most, Trump was listed as the first or second choice by 55 percent of respondents, DeSantis by 43 percent, and Haley by 33 percent. (Tim Scott was listed by 17 percent and Vivek Ramaswamy by 13 percent, with everyone else in single digits.) DeSantis was the second choice of 27 percent of respondents, compared with 17 percent for Haley. (Trump was the second choice for 12 percent of respondents, Scott for 10 percent, and Ramaswamy for 9 percent.)

The poll also found that DeSantis had higher favorability ratings among likely caucus-goers than Haley did. DeSantis’ net favorability rating was +43 points (69 percent favorable to 26 percent unfavorable), which is up from +37 in August and is the highest of any GOP presidential candidate. Meanwhile, Scott is at +39 (61 to 22 percent), Trump is at +34 (66 to 32 percent), and Haley is at +30 (59 to 29 percent). (Ramaswamy is only at +6, with 43 percent favorable and 37 percent unfavorable.)

In all, the poll found that two-thirds of likely Iowa caucus-goers are “actively considering” Trump (67 percent), the same percentage who are actively considering DeSantis (67 percent). Only about half are actively considering Haley (54 percent) or Scott (49 percent). About a third (32 percent) are actively considering Ramaswamy.

Kentucky Democrats Go Full Racist Against Daniel Cameron Chris Queen |

https://pjmedia.com/chris-queen/2023/11/03/kentucky-democrats-go-full-racist-against-daniel-cameron-n4923601

Democrats love to refer to themselves as the party of diversity. It’s always important for leftists to display how many different demographic categories are among their ranks. But what we don’t see on the left is diversity of thought.

Black conservatives become the targets of disrespect and outright racism from the left. Just ask Clarence Thomas, Tim Scott, and Condoleezza Rice. The latest example of this phenomenon is taking place in Kentucky, where Democrats are going full racist in attacking GOP gubernatorial candidate Daniel Cameron, who is black.

Cameron has trailed incumbent Gov. Andy Beshear until recently. According to RealClearPolitics, the latest Emerson poll shows Cameron with a narrow one-point lead over Beshear, while a poll from the same outlet from the beginning of October showed Beshear with a 16-point lead.

Cameron’s surge must have the Democrats scared because a new ad is using racism to target Cameron as insufficiently black. 

Fox News reports:

Black Voters Matter Action PAC, which FEC filings show received millions from [George] Soros’ super-PAC, has been running the radio ad on a local R&B station based in Jeffersontown, Kentucky, describing Cameron as “Uncle Daniel Cameron,” and accusing him of betraying his race by declaring “all skinfolk ain’t kinfolk.”

“What’s up Kentucky? It’s election time, and all skinfolk ain’t kinfolk. Over the past few years, we’ve taken to the streets to demand racial justice, to demand healthcare, and the right to make decisions about our body. And now, Uncle Daniel Cameron is threatening to take us backwards, the same man who refused to seek justice for Breonna Taylor now wants to run our whole state,” the ad says.

Let that sink in. It’s so racist that it is wilder than parody.

Judge Orders New Democrat Mayoral Primary in Connecticut After Seeing ‘Shocking’ Ballot-Stuffing Videos By Debra Heine

https://amgreatness.com/2023/11/02/judge-orders-new-democrat-mayoral-primary-in-connecticut-after-seeing-shocking-ballot-stuffing-videos/

A Superior Court judge in Connecticut has ordered a new Democrat mayoral primary in Bridgeport after surveillance videos showed a Democrat official apparently stuffing absentee ballots into an outdoor ballot box ahead of the original primary.

Incumbent Bridgeport Mayor Joe Ganim won the election by 251 votes out of 8,173 cast, and absentee ballots reportedly played a deciding role in his margin of victory.

Superior Court Judge William Clark ruled that challenger John Gomes’ claims of absentee ballot fraud warranted throwing out the results of the Sept. 12 primary, the Connecticut Mirror reported.

“The videos are shocking to the court and should be shocking to all of the parties,” Clark wrote in his decision.

The video clips show Town Committee vice chairwoman Wanda Geter-Pataky placing what appear to be multiple absentee ballots into one of the four absentee ballot drop boxes in the city.

“These instances do not appear to the court to be random,” Clark wrote in his opinion.

“The issue in this case is not the applications or even the push to deliver absentee votes. The issue is whether that advocacy crossed a line of the established laws. Specifically, whether individuals who were not the voter and were not authorized under statute handled ballots,” Clark said. “Based on the video and the numbers of absentee votes submitted through the drop box method in Districts 136 and 139 in particular, this court finds that such violations did occur.”

The Case for DeSantis over Haley as the Alternative to Trump By Dan McLaughlin

https://www.nationalreview.com/2023/10/the-case-for-desantis-over-haley-as-the-alternative-to-trump/

Like it or not, if there is a path forward from Trump right now, it still runs through Ron DeSantis, not Nikki Haley.

Nikki Haley has been increasingly consolidating a segment of the Republican primary vote, largely the most devoted anti-Trump voters, be they traditional Reaganite conservatives or moderates. This is still not close to a winning hand: In the RealClearPolitics polling averages, she is currently at 8.3 percent and third place nationally, 11.5 percent and third place in Iowa, 14.8 percent and second place in New Hampshire, and 17.7 percent and second place in her home state of South Carolina. It has, nonetheless, produced a boomlet of commentary from people who would prefer Haley to Ron DeSantis, such as Michael Strain’s “Case for Nikki Haley” in these pages. Noah Rothman has written on why he thinks Haley’s strategy of differentiating herself from Donald Trump on policy and style and focusing on appealing to voters who dislike Trump has been superior to that of DeSantis’s.

I get the instinct to be frustrated with the DeSantis campaign, and I understand why some of the traditionally Reaganite elements of the party — let alone Republican moderates — would like to use the present moment to grind axes against not only DeSantis but the whole nationalist/populist “New Right.” But the effort to promote Haley is likely to simply divide the opposition to Trump and strengthen the hand within the party of not only the nationalist/populist Right in general, but its most irresponsible elements in particular. Like it or not, DeSantis is still the best game in town — not only for any prospect of stopping Trump from winning the nomination, but for any long-term hope of restoring purpose and sanity to the Republican Party.

Moreover, in the immediate term, neither DeSantis nor Haley is dropping out of the race, so those of us looking to settle on a single opponent for Trump should first emphasize the urgent need for Tim Scott, Chris Christie, Doug Burgum, and Asa Hutchinson — none of whom any longer has a remotely plausible case for being in the race — to follow the statesmanlike lead of Mike Pence and drop out. I’d add Vivek Ramaswamy to that list if I didn’t think he was running essentially as a stalking horse to aid Trump.

The Choices

I put my own prior assumptions on the table here up front. I would happily go into battle in the general election behind either Haley or DeSantis, and would be thrilled to see either of them as president. Both boast strong records as conservative governors. Both are prepared to be commander in chief, Haley due to her tenure at the U.N., DeSantis from his time in the House and serving as a legal adviser to Navy SEALs in Iraq and a prosecutor at Guantanamo Bay. Both represent my generation, born in the 1970s and ready to move on from the seemingly endless grip of those born in the 1940s on our politics. Both cut their teeth in politics during the Tea Party era, when there was a bumper crop of talented Republicans looking to merge populist energy with conservative principle. Either of them would be the most conservative nominee since Ronald Reagan.

As a traditional Reaganite, I probably agree more with Haley than with DeSantis on the few areas where they actually disagree. I’ve been a longtime Haley booster going back to her first campaign for governor in 2010 and was openly discussing her four or five years ago as my preferred candidate to lead the party after Trump. She managed to get out of the Trump administration on good terms with Trump and with her dignity intact — not an easy thing — and if the party had chosen a new nominee in 2018, it might well have been Haley.

I’ve soured a bit on her political judgment since then, as she has struggled to navigate the innumerable pitfalls of a political landscape dominated by Trump, exemplified by a spectacularly ill-considered (and swiftly walked-back) interview with Tim Alberta in Politico in 2021. I saw her stump speech in Iowa in August and was unimpressed with its simplistic and gimmicky proposals (a competency test?) and overreliance on her gender. The debates have been a godsend to her campaign, allowing her to sink her teeth into more serious stuff and find a foil in the haplessly shallow and irritating Vivek Ramaswamy. They have reminded many of us why we thought she was a real talent in the first place.

That Old Republican Brawl By Amity Shlaes

https://www.nationalreview.com/2023/10/that-old-republican-brawl/?utm_source=recirc-desktop&utm_medium=homepage&utm_campaign=right-rail&utm_content=capital-matters&utm_term=second

Republicans should learn from their own history to avoid a replay of the 1912 election in 2024.

If Republicans have this much trouble choosing a speaker of the House, they can’t consider policy. If they can’t consider policy, they can’t build a strong platform. And if they can’t build a strong platform, they will have nothing to stand on in the next presidential election.

The default will be a mêlée of loyalists of various stripes — traditional Republicans, the odd libertarian, Trump revivalists — and of course, Donald Trump himself. The result is that policy itself will get neglected in the crucial 2024 year, to the enormous detriment of the American economy.

The price of such a free-for-all becomes clear when you go back to another point when Republicans brawled: the year 1912.

Playing the Trump role in that period was Theodore Roosevelt, though TR hadn’t started out as a powermonger. In his early years TR was a reformer, shining a spotlight on corruption in New York state. The early TR was also an American expansionist and a warrior — the Rough Rider who breached a steep ravine to emerge victorious at the Battle of San Juan Hill. Roosevelt became president after an assassin felled William McKinley in 1901.

And the presidency went to Roosevelt’s head. As president, he electrified the nation with impulsive forays — to call some of them “policies” would be a stretch. He forced a coup in Colombia to secure the Panama Canal, a step so brazen that Senator S. I. Hayakawa of California would comment of Panama, “We stole it fair and square.” But it was on the domestic front that most Americans focused. Here Roosevelt proved equally heedless, wielding the Department of Justice like a cudgel against business leaders he branded as “malefactors of wealth.”

Roosevelt selected as successor his friend William Howard Taft, who had a certain Burkean incrementalism. “We are all imperfect,” Taft once intoned. “We cannot expect perfect government.” Taft was also a fine jurist who could lay out the value of the separation of powers with all the skill of Montesquieu. “Wise deliberation,” Taft said, “may constitute the salvation of our republic.”

When it came to defending the Constitution, Taft managed to convert theory into action: persuading Congress to back legislation that gave the Supreme Court more independence to set its own agenda, as well as supporting funding for a symbol of that independence, a separate Supreme Court building. It is this champion of judicial independence some of us hope to learn more of in Walter Stahr’s forthcoming Taft biography.

Meanwhile we can study the Taft whom we know — the one who, against his own nature, opted to play the loyalist in his era’s electoral theater. As Jeffrey Rosen shows in his own perspicacious biography, after his 1908 election Taft devoted his first years in office to dignifying Roosevelt’s excesses by forcing them into a constitutional corset.

Democrats are pushing work authorization for migrants — so they can vote By Betsy McCaughey

https://nypost.com/2023/10/24/opinion/democrats-are-pushing-work-authorization-for-migrants-so-they-can-vote/

If you think offering migrants luxury hotel rooms, free meals, laundry service, transportation, health care and immigration lawyers is excessive, just wait until they can vote.

Democrats are pushing to give noncitizens the franchise in local elections in New York City, Boston and other municipalities, as well as statewide in Connecticut.

The number of migrants pouring across the southern border has hit a record high, according to data released Saturday.

Illegal crossings soared 21% over the previous month.

On a yearly basis, the figure reached 2.48 million.

Democrats may feign shock and distress. 

Don’t be fooled. 

Dems see these newcomers as their guarantee of a permanent voting majority in local elections. 

Not years from now, after the newcomers become citizens.

Right now.

Mayor Eric Adams’ rhetoric is typical. 

He warns that the overwhelming number of migrants arriving — 16,000 to 17,000 a month — will “destroy the city,” but he’s also leading the legal effort to turn migrants into voters.

Adams and other New York Democrats pushed President Joe Biden to expedite work authorizations for them.

They said it’s about making migrants self-sufficient. Maybe, but Dems have another powerful motive.

Video: Rep. Allred (DTX32) Threatens to Call Cops on Reporter for Asking Questions “Why are you standing with Hamas against Israel?”

https://www.frontpagemag.com/far-left-rep-allred-threatens-to-call-cops-on-reporter-for-asking-questions/

He is running for the Senate in Texas. Primary day is in March 2024…he leads thus far in raising funds and visibility….rsk

In the short video below, far-Left (aren’t they all?) Democrat Rep. Colin Allred attempted to brush off a reporter asking inconvenient questions in the halls of Congress, telling him “You’re on federal property. Stop doing this.”

The reporter repeatedly asked, “Congressman Allred, do you regret calling for the release of millions of dollars to Hamas?” and if Allred regretted voting against funding Israel’s Iron Dome defense system which protects against Hamas rockets. He also asked pointedly, “Why are you standing with Hamas against Israel?”

You would think that last question would prompt a Congressman to declare that he stands with Israel against terrorism, but a clearly irritated Allred just threatened to have the Capitol police deal with him. Why?

Check out the video below:

Rising Voter Anger Over Illegal Immigration Is Big Problem For Biden, Dems In 2024: I&I/TIPP Poll Terry Jones

https://issuesinsights.com/2023/10/10/rising-voter-anger-over-illegal-immigration-is-big-problem-for-biden-dems-in-2024-ii-tipp-poll/

If you’re wondering why President Biden has suddenly shown renewed interest in illegal immigration, wonder no more. As the I&I/TIPP Poll for October clearly shows, most Americans now see the open U.S. border as a serious national problem. And that also includes Democrats.

With a record surge of illegal immigrants into the U.S., I&I/TIPP asked the 1,378 voters who responded to the national online poll, which was taken from Sept. 27-29: “How would you describe the current situation at the United States’ southern border with Mexico?”

The poll, which was taken from Sept. 27-29 and has a margin of error of +/-2.7 percentage points, then provided five potential responses for participants: “crisis,” “a major problem,” “a minor problem,” “not a problem,” and “not sure.”

The response was clear and unequivocal. 72% of Americans called it either a crisis or a major problem. Just 22% said it was either a minor problem or not a problem. Another 6% said they were “Not sure.”

Republicans came out highest, with 88% calling the illegal border crossings a crisis or major problem, and just 10% calling the problem minor or nonexistent. Independents were somewhat below the Republicans at 64% vs. 25%. But Democrats weren’t far behind, at 62%-32%.
Of all the 26 demographic groups I&I/TIPP tracks each month, just one group was less than a majority: The youngest cohort, which includes those age 18 to 24 years. And even among the young, there was a plurality of 44% (“crisis/major problem”) to 37% (minor/not a problem).

There were some interesting results, however. Overall, 62% of the two largest minority groups, blacks and hispanics, called uncontrolled immigration across our border a crisis or major problem, while 27% didn’t see it that way.

Liz Peek: Trump’s the Republican To Solve the Crisis in the House, Which Would Bolster His Chances in 2024

https://www.nysun.com/article/trumps-the-republican-to-solve-the-crisis-in-the-house-which-would-bolster-his-chances-in-2024

It is time for President Trump to exert his authority as putative head of the Republican Party. He needs to step in and resolve the mess created by Congressman Matt Gaetz and his seven cohorts in the House of Representatives. 

How can he do that? By making sure that the selection of the next House speaker is done quickly and with minimal drama. Get Mr. Gaetz and his allies to support the most electable candidate, whether it is Congressman Jim Jordan or Congressman Steve Scalise or whomever else party leaders and Mr. Trump choose.

It’s time to tell the bomb-throwers, all Trump admirers, to stand down. Because it is widely believed that Mr. Gaetz’s drive to topple Speaker McCarthy stemmed from personal animus rather than any ideological high ground, that should not be impossible. The eight whose votes bounced Mr. McCarthy have no favored candidate, they have no plan. They just wanted him out.

Why would the 45th president wade into this particular swamp? Because nobody has more to lose politically from the ejection of Mr. McCarthy. When voters — even those of us who admire his policies — think of Mr. Trump’s presidency, they think of chaos, and the recent turmoil in the House furthers that narrative.

Support For Both Biden And Trump Fell In Oct. — A Blip, Or Opening For Challengers? I&I/TIPP Poll Terry Jones

https://issuesinsights.com/2023/10/05/support-for-both-biden-and-trump-fell-in-oct-just-a-blip-or-an-opening-for-others-ii-tipp-poll/

The 2024 election has seemed to be a preordained outcome, with current President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump holding substantial leads in their respective parties. But in October’s I&I/TIPP Poll, both major candidates’ support slipped a bit against their challengers. A one-off fluke, or the start of a trend?

The most recent online I&I/TIPP Poll, taken Sept. 27-29 from 1,262 registered voters, saw slippage for both candidates, though neither will yet be pushing the panic button. The overall poll has a margin of error of +/-2.8 percentage points.

After several months of steady support among Democrats for the party’s presidential nomination, Biden saw his support fall to 34% in October after edging higher from 36% in July and 37% in August to 38% in September.

Since the margin of error for the 560 Democrats surveyed for the poll was +/-4.2 percentage points, Biden’s October support remains within the margin of error when compared to the previous month’s 34% reading.

That said, Biden’s support fell in October. Meanwhile, backing for several of his possible opponents (or, perhaps, replacements if Biden bows out), gained a bit during the month. Biden’s No. 2 rival, former First Lady Michelle Obama, got 11% of Democrats’ support, up from 9% in September, and support for current Vice President Kamala Harris, rose to 8% from 7%. Socialist gadfly and sometime-Democrat candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders took 7% of support in October, also up a percent from September.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who has made news recently by vetoing several laws from the state’s far-left Legislature, saw his support rise from 4% in September to 5% in October.

But perhaps of greater concern to Biden’s political advisers is that he runs very weak among some large constituencies: Women (31% support) vs. men (36%), blacks and Hispanics (29% support) vs. whites (38%), and independents (29%) vs. registered Democrats (36%).