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ELECTIONS

The State of the Races By Richard Baehr

1. A lot of people are asking me for my predictions. I expect to make final forecasts right before election day. However, to save time and not have to respond to lots of individual emails, an update is provided below. After the election, I will discuss the results and the implications for 2024 at the Restoration Weekend conference of the David Horowitz Freedom Center, in Phoenix, November 10-13.  There are many substantive speakers at this event on a wide variety of topics.  Information is provided below. At the 2018 event I was on a panel discussing the 2018 results right after a talk by Victor Davis Hanson. So, in a sense, thinking of a rock concert, Hanson “opened” for me.  

https://restorationweekend.org

2. Certain things seem pretty clear, and other things are very unsettled.  Republicans seem to have momentum, both in House, and Senate races. If you don’t believe me, look at Nate Silver’s models and forecasts at fivethirtyeight.com. Nate Silver’s model predicts the chances of a GOP takeover of the House are 80%. Two weeks ago, the GOP chances for control were 68%.  Most forecasts (RCP, Larry Sabato, Cook Political Report, 538) project   final House numbers for the GOP in a range of 230 to 240. Redistricting, which was played to the hilt in many states by both parties to the extent they could, has limited the number of competitive races. Ohio and Illinois are probably the two states with the most partisan redistricting.  House races may produce some strange results this year. The Democrats could win and hold Alaska’s only House seat. A Republican could win a House seat in Rhode Island. 

For the Senate, Silver has GOP chances are 45%, and were 29% two weeks ago. In other words, the GOP looks likely to win the House, and the Senate control is very much a tossup. Silver’s model incorporates among other factors, polling results (higher weights to more recent polls, and those with greater historic accuracy), as well as state or district voting history. 

At the moment, many Senate races are in play. Democrat-held seats which could shift include Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire. Washington State and Colorado are uphill for Republicans, but very good candidates have made these races competitive.  GOP held seats in play include Ohio, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and maybe Utah and Iowa. One big difference between the parties is that vulnerable Democrats are all incumbents. Three of the four most vulnerable Republican held seats are open- Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina. In most cycles, incumbency is a big advantage, especially in fundraising. Challengers are sometimes not picked until the late summer and are underfunded for the general election. 

On the other hand, one factor working for Republicans in some of the closest Senate races are likely big wins for GOP governors- Ohio, Georgia and New Hampshire in particular, as well as Iowa, and a stronger than expected  GOP candidate for Governor in Arizona. In Pennsylvania, the Democratic governor candidate seems well ahead, and is helping John Fetterman try to reach the finish line.

Incumbency may be a mixed blessing this year. Voters seem by and large miserable and unhappy (look at right direction, wrong direction surveys). Inflation and interest rates are high. Home values and stock market values have sharply dropped. We have a national crime wave, focused on cities where Democrats are in complete control, and politicians seem unable or unwilling to address the problem. Personal insecurity is a big deal. New York State has a close governor’s race, largely as a result of crime numbers. Bail reform, stifling how police can behave, greatly reduced police staffing, prosecutors more concerned with keeping criminals out of jail, than protecting their victims, are all making voters very sour on this issue. Covid lockdowns were often unnecessary and caused great economic damage, and very poor educational results with kids schooled via zoom. The incredible number of illegals allowed in the country at our wide open southern border suggests national lawlessness, and almost a complete abdication of responsibility by the federal government. 

Independents Hold Key To 2022 GOP ‘Red Wave’: I&I/TIPP Poll Terry Jones

https://issuesinsights.com/2022/10/24/independents-hold-key-to-2022-gop-red-wave-ii-tipp-poll/

Despite both major parties claiming they have an advantage, the race for control of Congress appears to be a dead heat, the most recent I&I/TIPP data show. But there’s a big potential surprise element that could tilt the balance sharply: Nearly one out of every seven registered voters, or 15%, are “not sure” whom they’ll vote for.

The online poll of 1,158 voters across the country was taken from October 5-7, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 points.

The poll asked those responding: “What is your preference for the outcome of this November’s congressional elections?”

Answers showed the sharp division among the electorate, with 42% saying they would prefer “a Congress controlled by Republicans,” and 43% saying they preferred “a Congress controlled by Democrats.” The results are within the poll’s margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.

#LetsVoteBrandon Williams: An Insurgent Republican in a Dead Heat Race for Congress in Upstate New York By Susan D. Harris

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2022/10/letsvotebrandon_williams_an_insurgent_republican_in_a_dead_heat_race_for_congress_in_upstate_new_york.html

While Governor Kathy Hochul’s lead against Rep. Lee Zeldin seems to be tightening, there are other New York State races to watch.

City and State New York magazine identified six congressional races to watch, singling out one as “one of the most competitive in the country” — NY-22: Francis Conole (D) v. Brandon Williams (R).

Let’s take a look at how Williams’s #LetsVoteBrandon campaign started.

John Katko, the Republican representative for New York’s 24th Congressional District, announced he was scurrying out of Washington forever after casting his Trump Impeachment vote in 2021.  (To which President Trump commented, “Great news, another one bites the dust.  Katko, from Upstate New York, is gone!”)

Indeed, there was no love lost between Katko and his constituents, who continually voted for him as the lesser of two evils, then loudly lambasted him for “continually backing Democratic legislation” that went against everything they believed in. 

Then came the redistricting mess.  Katko was originally elected to New York’s 24th Congressional District, much of which is now the new, open 22nd district.

Enter Brandon Williams, a Navy veteran, husband, father and truffle farmer from Cayuga county.  “I just can’t sit by and see what’s happening to our country.  I think people are starting to wake up and say ‘Wow, we may be in trouble.’”  That’s what Williams told a local paper as he entered the race to represent the NY-22 back in February.

Is the Bottom Completely Falling Out for Democrats? Guy Benson

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2022/10/21/wave-watch-is-the-bottom-falling-out-for-democrats-n2614836

I’m not prepared to make declarative statements about how November 8th is going to go, and you know what they say about counting chickens.  But it’s increasingly looking like a red wave is cresting.  One of the questions I’ve been pondering for the last few months is whether 2022 will look more like 2018 (when the opposition party had a good night in the House, but underperformed in the Senate, due to various dynamics) or 2014 (when Republicans appeared to be underperforming through much of the cycle before a decisive break at the tail end made it political bloodbath).  Atmospheric clues and data breadcrumbs suggest that the latter historical analogue may end up looking more apt when the votes are counted in a few weeks.  Consider this:

Real Clear Politics’ Sean Trende calls this “a nice distillation of the ‘it is 2014 again’ theory of 2022.”  It’s far from guaranteed, but it’s compelling.  And if this is the Biden baseline, that’s dire territory for his party: 

The hallmarks of a substantial wave are cropping up everywhere.  Plausibly competitive races are looking…well, not:

D.C. Set to Allow Illegal Immigrants to Vote in Local Elections By Ari Blaff

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/d-c-set-to-allow-illegal-immigrants-to-vote-in-local-elections/?utm_source=

The D.C. Council, the legislative body representing Washington, D.C., sent a set of bills to Mayor Muriel Bowser’s desk on Tuesday, one of which will allow illegal immigrants to vote in local elections.

The bill allowing illegal immigrants to vote passed on a near-unanimous 12-1 vote following its first reading earlier this week, after languishing in the city council for a decade. It expands previous legislation which allowed green-card holders to vote.

Councilman Charles Allen, chairman of the Judiciary Committee, said he sponsored the bill because the issue of representation is “personal” to D.C. residents.

“In the District [of Columbia], we understand disenfranchisement,” Allen said during the committee vote.

“We know what it feels like to be taxed without representation. That people we didn’t elect make decisions that deeply affect our lives,” he said.

Local activist groups such as DC Latino Caucus as well as D.C. for Democracy were active in pushing for the issue. “Passage of this bill means that, for the first time in our lives, I and thousands of D.C. residents—immigrants who live, work, and pay taxes in the District—will be able to vote,” a local organizer and member of the Democratic Socialists of America, Abel Amene, said.

The only dissenting opinion upon first reading was councilwoman Mary Cheh, who understood it was an uphill battle. “Futility is not my goal here,” Cheh told the DCist. “Could someone who was put on a bus from Texas and dropped off at the vice president’s property … then vote in our local elections?” Cheh reportedly asked.

“Cheh’s ‘questions’ are rooted in age-old xenophobia and racism,” Amene wrote to the Washington Post following the vote. “Immigrants are not ‘complete strangers.’ They are our neighbors, family and friends.”

Maryland has been one of the states leading the charge to expand the vote to illegal migrants. If the bill is ratified, Washington D.C. will join neighboring Hyattsville and Takoma Park in having laws in place that will allow non-citizens to vote in local elections. New York City passed similar legislation to allow illegal immigrants to vote last year but it was struck down as unconstitutional by a state Supreme Court judge in June.

Texas Republican representative August Pfluger denounced the development. “If you’re in the United States illegally, you don’t have the right to vote—period. Liberals in Washington, D.C. who want to allow noncitizens to vote are putting the integrity of our election system at risk. My bill will put a stop to it. Americans deserve confidence in our elections and to know that only legal citizens are voting in the United States of America.” Pfluger introduced a bill last week to block the motion.

There are believed to be over 50,000 illegals in the District of Columbia. The bill was passed alongside another initiative that would make mail-in voting a permanent feature of elections.

As Michigan Dems Plot To Take Over Elections And Trans The Kids, Grassroots Activists ‘Stand Up’ To Fight By: Shawn Fleetwood

https://thefederalist.com/2022/10/19/as-michigan-dems-plot-to-take-over-elections-and-trans-the-kids-grassroots-activists-stand-up-to-fight/

‘If we don’t protect our children and our Constitution, then we have utterly failed,’ said Stand Up Michigan President Ron Armstrong.

With Election Day rapidly approaching, the fight for the soul of one of the country’s most contested battleground states is just starting to heat up. In Michigan, where Democrat Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is facing a tough general election challenge from Republican gubernatorial candidate Tudor Dixon, residents will be voting on two leftist-backed ballot amendments that carry serious ramifications — and one grassroots group is standing up to make sure they don’t pass.

The amendments seek to overhaul the state’s election systems and codify unlimited access to abortion into Michigan’s constitution, with the latter amendment covertly including a right for transgender-identifying minors to undergo sterilization without parental consent.

Known as “Proposal 2,” the first of the two initiatives would essentially legalize Democrats’ election-takeover policies throughout the state. If passed, the amendment would allow for “state-funded ‘absentee ballot drop boxes’ and ‘postage for applications and ballots,’” as well as allowances for private “donations to fund elections,” such as the “Zuckbucks” that were used to alter operations in state and local government election offices during the 2020 contest. Moreover, Proposal 2 would also “provide voters with a ‘right’ to fill out a single absentee ballot application ‘to vote absentee in all [future] elections,’” which would “keep mass mail-in balloting, the least secure form of elections, in place after such measures caused a chaotic 2020 election.”

It’s been two years since 51 intelligence agents interfered with an election — they still won’t apologize By Miranda Devine ******

https://nypost.com/author/miranda-devine/

Exactly two years ago, on October 19, 2020, one of the dirtiest tricks in electoral history was played on the American people by 51 former intelligence officials, who used the false alarm of “Russian interference” to stop Donald Trump winning a second term as president.

Using the institutional weight of their former esteemed roles, they signed a dishonest letter to mislead voters 15 days before the election, claiming that material from Hunter Biden’s laptop published by The New York Post “has all the classic earmarks of a Russian information operation.”

In their expert opinion “the Russians are involved in the Hunter Biden email issue.”

Russia was “trying to influence how Americans vote in this election . . . Moscow [will] pull out the stops to do anything possible to help Trump win and/or to weaken Biden should he win.

“A ‘laptop op’ fits the bill, as the publication of the emails are [sic] clearly designed to discredit Biden . . . It is high time that Russia stops interfering in our democracy.”

It was all a lie. Their letter was the culprit “interfering with democracy” in broad daylight.

Not one of the 51 had seen any material from the laptop or bothered asking for it, but their letter, instigated by, signed and delivered to Politico by Democratic operative and former John Brennan aide Nick Shapiro, killed the story stone dead. It got candidate Joe Biden off the hook for the corrupt influence peddling scheme his family had been running through the eight years of his vice presidency.

The shameful letter was used by Joe Biden three days later, on October 22, to deflect Trump’s attack in their last debate.

Images and files revealing personal information were discovered on Hunter Biden’s laptop.

“There are 50 former national intelligence folks who said that what he’s accusing me of is a Russian plan . . . Four, five former heads of the CIA, both parties, say what he’s saying is a bunch of garbage . . . You know his character. You know my character. You know my reputation is for honor and telling the truth . . . The character of the country is on the ballot.”

Biden dismissed as a Kremlin smear all the evidence that was on his son’s laptop of dirty money from China and Russia, of all his meetings with Hunter’s overseas business partners, and all the lies he had told about his involvement in Hunter’s business deals.

Pelosi’s ‘Winning’ Message To Voters: Quit Griping About Inflation

https://issuesinsights.com/2022/10/20/pelosis-winning-message-to-voters-quit-griping-about-inflation/

To all those suffering from skyrocketing prices, struggling to make ends meet, going to food kitchens to feed their families, breaking the bank just to fill up their tanks, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has a message for you.

Quit your griping and vote Democratic.

That is the “new and improved” messaging that Pelosi thinks will win over voters in November.

And no, we are not kidding. In an interview with Punchbowl News published on Wednesday, here’s what she said:

Inflation’s an issue, but it’s global. It’s global. … What’s [the Republicans’] plan? They ain’t got nothing. When you bring down unemployment, inflation goes up. … So, in any case, [President Joe Biden] brought unemployment [down], cut it in half. Inflation is there but it’s global and not as bad as it is in some countries. We’ll have to message it better in the next three weeks ahead. I think we’re in great shape. Other people don’t want to believe that.

Let’s break that down.

“It’s global.” Not exactly.

The U.S. inflation rate is worse than 13 of the G20 nations. Canada’s has been steadily declining since June. And several European countries are suffering higher prices thanks to their decision to impose the idiotic “clean energy” mandates Biden wants to import. Energy costs in Germany, for example, were up 44% in September.

In any case, telling people “everybody’s suffering, so don’t feel so bad,” is not what we’d call a winning message.

Who Denies Election Results? There is nothing “unprecedented” about challenging election results. And for Democrats, there’s nothing unprecedented in trying to manipulate them. By Victor Davis Hanson

https://amgreatness.com/2022/10/19/who-denies-election-results/

A Democratic myth has arisen that Donald Trump’s denial of the accuracy of the 2020 vote was “unprecedented.”

Unfortunately, the history of U.S. elections is often a story of both legitimate and illegitimate election denialism. 

The 1800, 1824, 1876, and 1960 elections were all understandably questioned. In some of these cases, a partisan House of Representatives decided the winner.  

Presidential candidate Al Gore in 2000 did not accept the popular vote results in Florida. He spent five weeks futilely contesting the state’s tally—until recounts and the Supreme Court certified it. 

The ensuing charge that George W. Bush was “selected not elected” was the Democrats’ denialist mantra for years.

In 2004, Senator Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) and 31 Democratic House members voted not to certify the Ohio election results in their unhinged efforts to overturn the election. Those denialists included the current sanctimonious chairman of the January 6 select committee, U.S. Representative Benny Thompson (D-Miss). 

After 2016, crackpot Democratic orthodoxy for years insisted that Donald Trump had “colluded” with Russia to “steal” certain victory from Hillary Clinton. 

Clinton herself claimed that Trump was not a “legitimate” president. No wonder she loudly joined #TheResistance to obstruct his presidency. 

The serial denialist Clinton later urged Joe Biden not to concede the 2020 election if he lost.  

Also after 2016, left-wing third-party candidate and denialist Jill Stein vainly sued in courts to disqualify voting machine results in preselected states. 

A denialist host of Hollywood C-list actors in 2016 cut television commercials begging members of the Electoral College to violate their oaths and instead flip the election to Hillary Clinton. 

Clinton herself had hired foreign national Christopher Steele to concoct a dossier of untruths to smear her 2016 campaign opponent, Donald Trump. 

The FBI took up Clinton’s failed efforts. It likewise paid in vain her ancillaries like Christopher Steele to “verify” the dossier’s lies. 

The bureau further misled a FISA court about the dossier’s authenticity. An FBI lawyer even altered a document, as part of a government effort to disrupt a presidential transition and presidency. 

Steven Hayward : Dems Hitting the Panic Button

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2022/10/dems-hitting-the-panic-button.php

Democrats are filling up their diapers over yesterday’s New York Times/Siena poll that offers a picture of all the macro-indicators lining up for a Republican tidal wave in next month’s election.

There is one curious aspect of the demographic breakdown that is prompting a question: why does the GOP seem to be doing best among “Gen-X” voters age 45-64, as seen in this chart:

I can actually think of one very simple reason this age group leans more Republican:

But let’s keep going with the NY Times/Siena poll, because the racial breakdown is really cause for Democratic panic and nightmares:

The surging Republican share of the hispanic vote has been noted for months now, but if Republicans approach 20 percent of the black vote, it’s lights out for Democrats.