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FOREIGN POLICY

Trump has been right about China for years More and more people are awakening to the minatory reality that is China Roger Kimball

https://spectator.us/trump-right-china-years-uighurs/

Back in the summer of 2015, all the cleverest people made fun of Donald Trump for obsessing about China. One of them even made a video compilation of the candidate saying ‘China’ over and over again on the hustings. Ha ha ha.

It seems distinctly less funny now. There is a reason that the novel coronavirus is popularly denominated the Wuhan flu or CCP virus. As Bill Gertz observed in How China’s Communist Party Made the World Sick, ‘the world does not need to prove that the communist regime in Beijing was responsible for the escape of the coronavirus from a lab’ in order to cast a jaundiced eye upon its many malefactions. ‘It is now clear,’ he writes, ‘that decades of international engagement and cooperation with communist China was a mistake that seriously undermined fundamental American values of freedom, democracy, openness, honesty, and free markets.

It seemed like a good idea at the time. In the 1970s, under Richard Nixon, America embarked on a program of ‘constructive engagement’ with communist China. The hope was that by pursuing closer ties with China, America would mount a more effective challenge to the Soviet threat. The secondary hope was that by engaging with China, we would lure the backwards communist behemoth into the modern world. That turned out to be a fond hope. China entered the modern world all right. But instead of softening its penchant for top-down totalitarian rule, economic and military modernization made its despotism more cunning.

Consider, for example, the 370,000 Chinese nationals who have come to the United States for college. They typically pay full-freight, which makes them an important economic boon to the colleges and universities they attend. And it is still not widely appreciated that all are subject to Article 7 of the 2017 National Intelligence Law of 2017, which requires that ‘any citizen shall support, assist, and cooperate with the state intelligence work’. In other words, as Brian Kennedy notes in Communist China’s War Inside America, ‘It is quite literally the law that all Chinese students in American universities are agents, or potential agents, of the Chinese Communist party and the intelligence apparatus of the P.RC.’

U.S. Needs a Broad Response to China-Iran Moves By Lawrence J. Haas

https://www.newsweek.com/us-needs-broad-response-china-iran-moves-opinion-1518160
A new China-Iran economic and military agreement and this fall’s expiration of the global arms embargo on Iran could dramatically upend international relations by expanding China’s global reach, empowering Iran to threaten America’s regional allies, undercutting U.S. efforts to pressure both nations and further destabilizing the Middle East.

From their agreement-which both nations plan to finalize and ratify in the coming months-China will get a greater foothold in the Middle East, threatening traditional U.S. big-power supremacy there. Iran, meanwhile, will receive an important economic lifeline through Chinese investments and oil purchases, and added security from a tighter military relationship with Beijing.

From the arms embargo’s expiration, Iran will get unimpeded global access to sophisticated weaponry-weaponry that it can use to continue building its own threatening arsenal, as well as to arm its allies like Syria’s Bashar al-Assad and terrorist proxies in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, and elsewhere.

These converging developments demand a thoughtful response from the West. The United States and its allies now need to develop a broad strategy to contain Beijing and Tehran and thwart their ambitions.

“Two ancient Asian cultures,” Beijing and Tehran declared in the opening sentence of their draft agreement, “two partners in the sectors of trade, economy, politics, culture and security with a similar outlook and many mutual bilateral and multilateral interests will consider one another strategic partners.”

War on Trump USAGM Pick Michael Pack Undermines U.S. Battle With China: Ben Weingarten

https://www.newsweek.com/war-trump-usagm-pick-michael-pack-undermines-us-bat

Nearly a full term into the Donald Trump presidency, the administration was finally able to fill a little-known but pivotal seat with someone of the president’s choosing. The political establishment had worked tirelessly to block the appointment. Its obstruction would continue post-confirmation. The appointee was subjected to an onslaught from Congress, in the courts and in the press. The apparent aim was to undermine him as part of a broader effort to undermine the president’s policies.

The continued fight against Michael Pack, the new CEO of the U.S. Agency for Global Media (USAGM), is a microcosm of the fight of this presidency: to overcome a political establishment unwilling to afford the president the same privileges as his predecessors—including to staff the executive branch with supporters. That is, to overcome a Washington, D.C. hellbent on preventing the peaceful transfer of power.

In so doing, it is the Resistance that has eviscerated our norms, values and institutions. In its jihad against Mr. Pack, it has done so to the detriment of our national security interests.

USAGM is an essential part of America’s arsenal in the War of Ideas. The independent federal agency oversees the Voice of America (VOA), Office of Cuba Broadcasting and USAGM-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Radio Free Asia, the Middle East Broadcasting Network (MBN) and Open Technology Fund. We, the American taxpayer, contribute $800 million annually to USAGM to “inform, engage and connect people around the world in support of freedom and democracy.” Its outlets faithfully fulfilled this mission during the Cold War. To triumph over today’s Communist menace, China, it must do so again.

Nuclear Policy: Whatever Happened to Common Sense? by Peter Huessy

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/16180/nuclear-policy-common-sense

William Perry’s proposals, in his new book, The Button, (1) ignore the current Russian and Chinese nuclear threats, (2) widely exaggerate the costs of US nuclear modernization and (3) would actually so upset the nuclear balance as to make a nuclear attack on the US more likely.

For some strange reason, Perry does not ask for cuts from Russia or China, perhaps heralding a new faith-based arms control strategy? Both countries are completing massive nuclear modernization build-ups. Putin’s defense minister announced Russia’s nuclear modernization would be nearly 90% complete by the end of 2020, while China is on pace to double its nuclear forces by 2030.

At its peak, then, the complete nuclear enterprise would amount to 6-7% of the defense budget to modernize, operate and maintain, while modernization alone would be 3%. This still is some one-third of what it was at the height of the Cold War, when the US economy was far smaller and the defense budget a fraction of what it is today.

As soon as the US eliminates its ICBM force, Russia and China will get back in the business of seeking to disarm the United States, one top admiral reminded Gatestone.

In the new defense bill, the administration and Congress are building better missile defenses, including space-based sensors, and advanced national and regional systems. Combined with the newly initiated discussions in Geneva with the Russians on arms control measures, the US is on the right path.

Dr. William Perry is considered one of the fathers of stealth aircraft; he started directing research on the B2 program when a senior official in the DOD back in the 1970s.

He later became secretary of defense from 1994-1997 during the Clinton administration and was often seen in Ukraine at photo-ops where Soviet-era ICBM silos were eliminated, both between Russia and the USA, as part of the 1992 Nunn-Lugar and 1991 Start treaty.

Perry has a new book, The Button, about US nuclear policy and his support for global nuclear disarmament. He makes numerous proposals that he claims will lessen nuclear dangers and bring us closer to global zero, the end state when presumably all nuclear weapons have been destroyed.

U.S. Sends Two Aircraft Carriers to South China Sea for Exercises as China Holds Drills Nearby USS Reagan, USS Nimitz to visit South China Sea’s disputed waters while Chinese navy holds drills there

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-sends-two-aircraft-carriers-to-south-china-sea-for-exercises-as-china-holds-drills-nearby-11593816043?mod=hp_lead_pos1

The U.S. is sending two aircraft carriers into one of Asia’s hottest spots to deliver a pointed message to China that it doesn’t appreciate Beijing’s military ramp-up in the region.

The USS Ronald Reagan and USS Nimitz are set to hold some of the U.S. Navy’s largest exercises in recent years in the South China Sea from Saturday—at the same time that China is holding drills in the area.

With tensions rising between the two over trade, the coronavirus pandemic and China’s crackdown on dissent in Hong Kong, U.S. officials said they wanted to challenge what they called Beijing’s unlawful territorial claims.

“The purpose is to show an unambiguous signal to our partners and allies that we are committed to regional security and stability,” said Rear Adm. George M. Wikoff, commander of the strike group led by the USS Ronald Reagan, in an interview.

What Will a Trump Re-Election Mean For the Middle East? The region’s future hinges on what happens in November. Joseph Puder

https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/2020/07/middle-east-conundrum-joseph-puder/

With the Middle East awaiting the U.S. elections, there is no significant military or political movement in the region. The Arab world, much like the rest of the world, is preoccupied with the coronavirus crisis, and its severe impact on the local economies in the region. The Arab world, divided into royalist, presidential, and parliamentary systems, none of them democratic, all having conflicting interests, are now in the same boat because of the coronavirus crisis. In Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Syria and the Arab Gulf states, the current focus is on internal issues, specifically health measures that would prevent the spread of coronavirus infections and the economic impact it has caused. As far as external issues are concerned, there is a conundrum. Who will be the next U.S. president? Many external decisions will await the results of the U.S. presidential elections, and the direction of the next American president.

Iran is not an Arab country, but it too is enmeshed in recovering from the economic damage caused by the coronavirus, and the impact of the U.S. sanctions on its failing economy. The regime is burdened by the lack of credibility and trustworthiness. The ayatollahs poor handling of the coronavirus crisis, coupled with the downing of the Ukrainian jetliner by the Iranian military in January, 2020, at the loss of 176 lives, exposed the regimes incompetence. Then they lied about it. The Islamic Republic of Iran is hoping for a Democrat party victory in the November, 2020 U.S. elections, and the defeat of Donald Trump in particular. They are expecting that Joe Biden as President will end the sanctions and rejoin the 5+1 nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Iraq is now more stable, following six months of failed attempts to form a government. The new Prime Minister, Mustafa al-Kadhimi, a former head of Intelligence, is not an Iranian puppet. He is committed to lead Iraq out of its economic crisis, due in part to the collapse of the price of oil, Iraq’s primary export. Iraq has also endured a health crisis brought about by the coronavirus, and a resurgent Islamic State terrorism (IS). The appointment of al-Kadhimi as prime minister, and the strengthened position of the Kurdish President of Iraq, Barham Salih, (this reporter interviewed Barham Salih in 1993), both of them reformers, has dealt a blow to the pro-Iranian groups in Iraq. The election of al-Kadhimi was welcomed by Washington.

Congress Launches Bipartisan Bill to Give Refugee Status to Certain Hong Kong Residents New bill is aimed at Hong Kongers at risk of persecution under Chinese territory’s new national-security law by Kate O’Keefe

https://www.wsj.com/articles/congress-launches-bipartisan-bill-to-give-refugee-status-to-certain-hong-kong-residents-11593553499

Lawmakers of both parties launched a bill to give refugee status to Hong Kong residents at risk of persecution under the Chinese territory’s new national-security law, which local rights activists and many Western countries have decried as a tool for Beijing to suppress civil liberties in the semiautonomous city-state.

The bill, introduced hours after the text of the new security law was released, is being led by Marco Rubio (R., Fla.) and Bob Menendez (D., N.J.) in the Senate and John Curtis (R., Utah) and Joaquin Castro (D., Texas) in the House of Representatives, along with around a dozen co-sponsors from both chambers.

The legislation would require the State Department to designate as refugees of special humanitarian concern Hong Kong residents who suffered persecution, or have a well-founded fear of it, due to their expression of political opinions or peaceful participation in political activities. The privileges would extend to those individuals’ spouses, children and parents, provided the parents are Chinese citizens, the text says.

The paperwork could be completed in Hong Kong or in a third country, and refugees would then be able to apply for permanent residency and citizenship. The opportunity, which wouldn’t be restricted by the current U.S. cap on refugees, would be valid for five years from the date of the bill’s passage.

The Ending of Iran Nuclear Deal Sanction Waivers Shoshana Bryen

https://www.jewishpolicycenter.org/insight/

If you believe Iran when it says that if the U.S. reverses President Donald Trump’s decision not to renew sanctions waivers permitting outside assistance to Iran’s nuclear facilities, it will meet its obligations under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (“JCPOA,” or “Iran deal”), stop here.

If you think it is better to keep outsiders in Iran, under the JCPOA, to “reduce Iran’s incentive to enrich uranium at higher levels,” as non-proliferation specialists told The Washington Post—in other words, to keep Iran from cheating more than it otherwise would cheat—stop here.

But, if you understand that the Islamic Republic cheats on everything—on U.N.-imposed nuclear restrictions, including by building a nuclear weapons plant in Syria; on U.N.-imposed conventional arms restrictions, including by transfers to Hezbollah; on the U.N. embargo on ballistic missile development, including by building missile factories in Syria and Lebanon and providing precision missiles to Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen; on its human rights obligations; on the oil embargo; and by breaking U.N. embargoes on North Korea and Venezuela—keep going. And if you know that Iran was responsible for the ethnic cleansing of hundreds of thousands of Sunni Syrians from the center of the country into Turkey, and further westward to Europe as refugees, keep going. And if you are sure that Iran is calling for genocide against Israel…well, you get the point.

A Global Strategy That Can Appeal to Trump Voters Populists and elites can agree on reciprocal trade and the Chinese threat. Walter Russell Mead

https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-global-strategy-that-can-appeal-to-trump-voters-11591201375?mod=opinion_featst_pos2

Donald Trump will be president for either 7½ more months or 4½ more years. The voters who support him will be around for much longer.

For students of U.S. foreign policy, this poses a question independent of Mr. Trump’s personality and political style: Is the gap between America’s post-World War II global strategy and the beliefs of the president’s base too wide to be bridged? Or is there a way to envision a global strategy for the U.S. that American populism can support?

Historically, the answer to the latter question has been yes. Jacksonians can be part of a stable political coalition that backs a global U.S. strategy. That was the normal condition during the Cold War, when Jacksonians were as loyal to Ronald Reagan as they are today to Mr. Trump. Though rarely enthusiastic about the United Nations, foreign aid or humanitarian interventions abroad, Jacksonians saw the Soviet Union and its communist ideology as a mortal threat to American freedom. Facing that danger, they were ready to do their part against the U.S.S.R.

After the Cold War, Jacksonians and U.S. strategy began to drift apart. Under Republican and Democratic presidents from George H.W. Bush through Barack Obama, American foreign policy became more ambitious. The goal was no longer to defeat the Soviet threat but to create a “new world order” by promoting democracy and liberal capitalism around the world. As awareness of climate change spread, the new world order acquired another task: to shift the global economy toward carbon neutrality.

Why the U.S. and U.K. Must Stand Up to China By Tom Cotton & Tobias Ellwood

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/06/why-the-u-s-and-uk-must-stand-up-to-china/

The Rt. Hon. Tobias Ellwood MP is the chairman of Parliament’s Defense Committee and leads its subcommittee inquiry into the future of 5G in the United Kingdom. Tom Cotton is a United States senator for Arkansas. He will testify before Ellwood’s subcommittee today.

T he Chinese Communist Party’s malevolent actions are forcing governments around the world to reassess their relationships with China. This is an opportunity to strengthen the alliances among the United States, the United Kingdom, and other free countries.

China’s leaders proved they can’t be trusted when they suppressed news of the virus outbreak in Wuhan and stonewalled inquiries into the virus’s origins. Now they are breaking promises to the people of Hong Kong, preparing repressive security laws against the will of the island’s residents, in clear violation of the Sino-British Joint Declaration, in which Beijing promised to respect Hong Kong’s free system of government. Conditions for the Uighur minority in Xinjiang are as dire as ever, and territorial expansion in the South China Sea and in disputed areas of the Sino-Indian border continues apace. Meanwhile Xi Jinping’s dictatorship makes no effort to conceal its plans for compulsory reunification between mainland China and Taiwan, using violence if necessary.

Such abuses have contributed to a debate in the U.K. about whether to allow equipment from the Chinese company Huawei into its 5G network. Huawei is one of the Communist Party’s technology champions. After clawing its way to the top of the global market through industrial espionage, economic blackmail, and state subsidies, Huawei now gives China’s spies a portal into the countries that have allowed it into their networks.