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FOREIGN POLICY

The Soleimani Strike: The President Has the Constitution and Precedent on His Side By John Yoo

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/01/qasem-soleimani-strike-president-trump-has-constitution-precedent-on-his-side/

It’s legal to kill an enemy in combat, and Soleimani was clearly escalating his attacks on U.S. forces.

In ordering a strike on Iranian general Qasem Soleimani, President Donald Trump re-opened questions about targeting those abroad who would harm Americans. “No one should shed a tear,” in Senator Chuck Schumer’s words, over the death of the Qods Force leader, who was responsible for the killing of hundreds of American soldiers in Iraq. Nevertheless, critics worry that the killing of Soleimani, one of the military leaders closest to Iran’s religious leaders, could spark an escalatory spiral of attacks and lead to a broader war in the Middle East.

Putting aside the policy of the attacks, Trump critics have raised doubts about the legality of the strike. Shortly after news broke on Thursday night of the attack, Senator Chris Murphy (D., Conn.), while conceding that Soleimani was “an enemy of the United States,” tweeted: “The question is this — as reports suggest, did America just assassinate, without any congressional authorization, the second most powerful person in Iran, knowingly setting off a potential massive regional war?”

Killing Soleimani without “involving Congress raises serious legal problems and is an affront to Congress’s powers as a coequal branch of government,” said House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Eliot L. Engel (D., N.Y.). “The law requires notification so the President can’t plunge the United States into ill-considered wars.”

Iran, Again By Jim Geraghty

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/01/death-to-america-iran-philosophy-for-40-years/

“Nothing else has gotten the United States to the point it desires — where the Iranian regime either drops “Death to America” as a slogan, a goal, and a philosophy, or everyone can genuinely rest assured that it is merely rote agitprop. The strike on Soleimani was something new — an experiment of sorts to see if it can generate the results that 40 years of other approaches have failed to generate. Let’s all hope that a new spirit of caution and prudence takes root in Tehran.”

For 40 years, Tehran’s philosophy has been simple and direct: ‘Death to America!’

S ince 1979, no one in the United States has figured out a good way to handle the regime in Tehran. For 40 years, we’ve been having the same arguments, and no matter what we tried, the results were disappointing.

It is hard to overstate just how spectacularly unprepared the U.S. government was for the Iranian Revolution in 1979. The House Intelligence Committee revealed in a January 1979 report that two CIA long-term analyses written in the late 1970s had left policymakers with the impression that the rule of American-aligned Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi was stable and strong. The House report cited a 60-page study from August 1977, titled “Iran in the 1980s,” that predicted that “the Shah will be an active participant in Iranian life well into the 1980s” and “there will be no radical change in Iranian political behavior in the near future.” The House also cited the CIA’s separate assessment in 1978, in its report titled “Iran After the Shah,” that “Iran is not in a revolutionary situation or even a ‘pre-revolutionary’ situation.”

Trump’s Ground Game Against Iran The assassination of Qassim Suleimani is a seismic event in the Middle East. By Michael Doran

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/03/opinion/trump-iran-suleimani-assassination-b

More than any other American military operation since the invasion of Iraq, the assassination yesterday of Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, the head of Iran’s Qods Force of its Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, is a seismic event. The killings of Osama bin Laden and Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leaders of al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, were certainly meaningful, but they were also largely symbolic, because their organizations had been mostly destroyed. Taking out the architect of the Islamic Republic’s decades-long active campaign of violence against the United States and its allies, especially Israel, represents a tectonic shift in Middle Eastern politics.

To see just how significant Mr. Suleimani’s death truly is, it helps to understand the geopolitical game he’d devoted his life to playing. In Lebanon, Mr. Suleimani built Lebanese Hezbollah into the powerful state within a state that we know today. A terrorist organization receiving its funds, arms and marching orders from Tehran, Hezbollah has a missile arsenal larger than that of most countries in the region. The group’s success has been astounding, helping to cement Iran’s influence not just in Lebanon but farther around the Arab world.

Building up on this successful experience, Mr. Suleimani spent the last decade replicating the Hezbollah model in Iraq, Syria and Yemen, propping up local militias with precision weapons and tactical know-how. In Syria, his forces have allied with Russia to prop up the regime of Bashar al-Assad, a project that, in practice, has meant driving over 10 million people from their homes and killing well over half a million. In Iraq, as we have seen in recent days, Mr. Suleimani’s militias ride roughshod over the legitimate state institutions. They rose to power, of course, after participating in an insurgency, of which he was the architect, against American and coalition forces. Hundreds of American soldiers lost their lives to the weapons that the Qods Force provided to its Iraqi proxies.

Will the Iran-US Confrontation Spiral Out of Control? Even the Experts Don’t Know Charles Lipson

https://spectator.us/iran-us-confrontation-spiral-control-experts/

Escalation poses major risks for both Tehran and Washington — and they both know it

Politicians and policy experts tell us, with confidence, that America’s targeted killing of Qasem Soleimani makes the world safer — or more dangerous. Take your pick. Whatever answer they give, the talking heads sound very certain. They shouldn’t be. However deep their understanding of Iran, the Middle East, and US foreign policy, nobody really knows what will happen next.

The problem is simply too complex. It depends on a sequence of difficult decisions, first by Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and then by President Donald Trump, each responding to the other’s choices, each calculating the risks of going too far — or not far enough.

The next decision is Tehran’s. Khamenei and his advisers face enormous pressure to strike back after Soleimani’s death, both because he was so important and because the United States openly took credit for the killing. The Revolutionary Guard and its elite Quds Force, which Soleimani led, will demand decisive action. They work directly for the Ayatollah and are essential to the regime’s continuation. Their demands will surely resonate with the supreme leader. He knows, too, that a weak response would undermine the regime’s authority at home and its reputation across the region.

So, Khamenei is almost certain to act and to go beyond the opportunistic announcement that Iran will resume its nuclear enrichment program. The most fundamental question he faces is how far to go. Is he willing to risk a major military escalation, which could put the regime itself in jeopardy? The choice involves several related questions: should Iran act with its own military forces or rely on proxies and terrorist cells? How big should its actions be? Should it use its navy to block oil shipments through the Straits of Hormuz? Does Iran dare undertake the riskiest escalation of all, directly attacking American targets?

What Is the Middle East In the Middle Of Anymore? Victor Davis Hanson

https://amgreatness.com/2020/01/05/what-is-the-middle-east-in-the-middle-of-anymore/

The United States is trying to square a circle, remaining strong and deterring dangerous elements, but to do so for U.S. interests—interests that increasingly seem to be fewer and fewer in the Middle East.

Since World War II, the United States has been involved in a series of crises and wars in the Middle East on the premise of protecting U.S., Western, or global interests, or purportedly all three combined. Since antiquity, the Middle East has been the hub of three continents, and of three great religions, and the maritime intersection between East and West.

In modern times American strategic concerns in no particular order were usually the following:

1) Guaranteeing reliable oil supplies for the U.S. economy.

2) Ensuring that no hostile power—most notably the Soviet Union between 1946-1989 and local Arab or Iranian strongmen thereafter—gained control of the Middle East and used its wealth and oil power to disrupt the economies and security of the Western world, Europe in particular.

3) Preventing radical Islamic terrorists from carving out sanctuaries and bases of operations to attack the United States or its close allies.

4) Aiding Israel to survive in a hostile neighborhood.

5) Keeping shipping lanes in the Eastern Mediterranean, the Suez Canal, and the Persian Gulf open and accessible to world commerce at the historical nexus of three continents.

6) To the extent we could articulate our interests, U.S. policy was reductionist and simply deterred any other major power for any reason from dominating the quite distant region.

7) Occasionally the United States sought to limit or stop the endemic bloodletting of the region.

Those various reasons explain why we tended to intervene in nasty places like Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, and Syria. Yet despite the sometimes humanitarian pretenses about our inventions in the Middle East, we should remember that we most certainly did not go commensurately into central Africa or South America to prevent mass killings, genocides, or gruesome civil wars.

Donald Trump Takes Out the Trash Daryl McCann

https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/qed/2020/01/donald-trump-takes-out-the-trash/

Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS) has just found another level of muddle and madness. I refer to the aftermath of the targeted assassination of Qasem Soleimani, commander of the Iran’s Quds Forces, the foreign legion division of Tehran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps on January 3. The problem with TDS is that it diminishes critical-thinking skills which means, paradoxically, groupthink is embraced without a skerrick of critical thinking. All we have are facts in the face of their fanaticism, and for that reason let us unemotionally consider the specifics of President Trump’s first televised explanation for terminating Soleimani. As Don McLean would say: “They would not listen/they do not know how/Perhaps they’ll listen now.”

The theme of President Trump’s rationale was this: “We took action last night to stop a war. We did not take action to start a war.” Whether or not this turns out to be true, let us at least recognise that Donald Trump’s thinking on foreign policy hardly fits the pattern of a warmonger, in the Middle East or anywhere else for that matter.

The “AP Fact Check” brings up the furphy that Donald Trump, then a private citizen, was for the Second Iraq War before he was against it, and yet all there is to this is a throwaway line, spoken on September 11, 2002, in response to a question about whether he would support a prospective invasion of Iraq: “Yeah, I guess so.” He also made a comment, in the context of America’s initial victory over Saddam Hussein’s army, that it “looks like a tremendous success from a military standpoint”.

Only after March 2003, according to the AP Fact Checker, did Trump become an outspoken critic of the Iraq War. What was intended as a brutal takedown of President Trump’s public statements by journalist Hope Yen shows something different. Before entering the White House, Trump exhibited little appetite for war. Not exactly in the Bernie Sanders category, to be sure, but definitely subdued. Donald Trump’s shortage of warmongery could just have easily been the basis of Hope Yen’s article. My own Quadrant Online Fact Check reveals, not so surprisingly, that the widely syndicated Hope Yen herself suffers from TDS. Her monomaniacal mission to disparage President Trump at every turn, never allowing any positive aspect of the man to see the light of day, is thinly disguised as “fact checking”.

Trump gives Iran and Congress a warning about America’s future plans By Andrea Widburg

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/01/trump_gives_iran_and_congress_a_warning_about_americas_future_plans.html

Predictably, following the targeted strike on General Qasem Soleimani when he stepped onto Iraq soil, Iran responded with its usual bombastic, existential (and, of course, anti-Israel) threats. What must have surprised the mullahs was that Trump, rather than countering with vague diplomatic language, gave as good as he got. That was Saturday. On Sunday, Trump upped the ante.

As you may recall, on Saturday, the mullahs promised to bomb American targets, destroy shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and attack Israel:

[Gen. Gholamali] Abuhamzeh, commander of the Revolutionary Guards in the southern province of Kerman, foreshadowed a possible attack on “vital American targets” located in the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation of Soleimani’s death.

“The Strait of Hormuz is a vital point for the West and a large number of American destroyers and warships cross there,” Abuhamzeh said according to a Reuters report, citing Tasnim news agency.

“Vital American targets in the region have been identified by Iran since long time ago … some 35 U.S. targets in the region, as well as Tel Aviv, are within our reach.”

Each of those threats is unlikely. The mullahs know that if they touch the American homeland, none will survive the next few hours. They also know that the American military is feeling unconstrained under Trump and will respond ferociously to any attacks on military targets. Israel, with Trump in the White House, will also go full speed ahead should Iran target it. Lastly, with America now a major oil exporter and Israel a major natural gas producer, the threat to the Strait of Hormuz matters significantly less.

Obama Sent Them Cash—Trump Turned Them Into Ash Sebastian Gorka

https://amgreatness.com/2020/01/03/obama-sent-them-cash-trump-turned-them-into-ash/

Instead of commending the commander-in-chief, the Left and its lackeys in the media are criticizing President Trump and sympathizing with the mullahs and the “revered Iranian military figure,” Qassem Suleimani.

The following is a simple reminder.

President Obama started his term in office traveling the world apologizing for America. He blamed a YouTuber when our ambassador and three other Americans were murdered by al-Qaeda in Benghazi, Libya. He sent Hillary Clinton to her Russian counterpart to give him a “reset” button. He also sent Putin a personal message to be patient because he would have “more flexibility” after his election.

Obama sent blankets and MREs to Ukraine after Putin invaded and took Crimea. He told us ISIS was just a JV team. Then after they established a caliphate, he told Americans ISIS was a “generational threat” we just had to get used to.

Pompeo brings down the House The U.S. Secretary of State turns the tables on the false correlation between the existence of settlements and the lack of peace between Israelis and Palestinians. Ruthie Blum

https://www.jns.org/opinion/pompeo-brings-down-the-house/

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo returned fire on Monday to a large group of House Democrats who lambasted him last month for declaring that Israeli settlements in Judea and Samaria (the West Bank) are not illegal.

In a letter to Michigan Rep. Andy Levin, who led 106 of his colleagues to sign a joint complaint against what they called the “State Department’s unilateral reversal on the status of settlements, without any clear legal justification,” Pompeo picked apart each false claim lobbed by the likes of “Squad” members Reps. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) with the force of an ax and the slice of a razor blade.

Kudos to him for putting them in their place, particularly when their objections are as far-fetched as their objectives.

Take their ridiculous assertion, for instance, that the announcement about the legitimacy of Israeli settlements “has discredited the United States as an honest broker between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, severely damaged prospects for peace and endangered the security of America, Israel and the Palestinian people. … [It also has] offered a tacit endorsement of settlements, their expansion and associated demolitions of Palestinian homes … ”

Iran fills the Vacuum Created by Trump’s Withdrawal by Con Coughlin

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15271/iran-vacuum-trump-withdrawal

President Trump has hastened the withdrawal of American forces from Syria, and is actively seeking to reduce America’s military presence elsewhere in the region, with troop withdrawals under active consideration in countries such as Iraq and Afghanistan.

“Russia is always on standby to fill power voids. That is how it happened that Russian troops swept in when the US left northern Syria. To sum up that still unfolding story: nobody will remember it as our finest hour.”

“There are some deeply malign forces at work in the broader Middle East…disengagement is just another term for leaving all the power to them.” – Richard Cheney, Former US Vice President,” Arab Strategy Forum, Dubai.

It is a measure of the failure of the nuclear deal with Iran that former US President Barack Obama helped to negotiate in 2015 that Tehran used the brief easing of tensions with Washington to strengthen and consolidate its military presence in Arab countries such as Syria, Lebanon and Iraq.

There are now serious concerns that Mr Trump’s desire to reduce America’s military presence in the Middle East will only encourage Iran to intensify its own activity, thereby increasing the threat to Israel and pro-Western Arab states.

The problem for small states such as Lebanon, though, is that they are no match for a regional superpower like Iran. And so long as the mullahs have the resources and weaponry to maintain their aggressive presence in the region, there is very little that small states like Lebanon can do to stop them.

The threat by a senior commander in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps this week “to flatten Tel Aviv” from Iranian-controlled bases in southern Lebanon provides arguably the most graphic example of the deepening dangers the region faces as a result of the Trump administration’s decision to scale down its military presence.