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FOREIGN POLICY

Trump gives Iran and Congress a warning about America’s future plans By Andrea Widburg

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/01/trump_gives_iran_and_congress_a_warning_about_americas_future_plans.html

Predictably, following the targeted strike on General Qasem Soleimani when he stepped onto Iraq soil, Iran responded with its usual bombastic, existential (and, of course, anti-Israel) threats. What must have surprised the mullahs was that Trump, rather than countering with vague diplomatic language, gave as good as he got. That was Saturday. On Sunday, Trump upped the ante.

As you may recall, on Saturday, the mullahs promised to bomb American targets, destroy shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and attack Israel:

[Gen. Gholamali] Abuhamzeh, commander of the Revolutionary Guards in the southern province of Kerman, foreshadowed a possible attack on “vital American targets” located in the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation of Soleimani’s death.

“The Strait of Hormuz is a vital point for the West and a large number of American destroyers and warships cross there,” Abuhamzeh said according to a Reuters report, citing Tasnim news agency.

“Vital American targets in the region have been identified by Iran since long time ago … some 35 U.S. targets in the region, as well as Tel Aviv, are within our reach.”

Each of those threats is unlikely. The mullahs know that if they touch the American homeland, none will survive the next few hours. They also know that the American military is feeling unconstrained under Trump and will respond ferociously to any attacks on military targets. Israel, with Trump in the White House, will also go full speed ahead should Iran target it. Lastly, with America now a major oil exporter and Israel a major natural gas producer, the threat to the Strait of Hormuz matters significantly less.

Obama Sent Them Cash—Trump Turned Them Into Ash Sebastian Gorka

https://amgreatness.com/2020/01/03/obama-sent-them-cash-trump-turned-them-into-ash/

Instead of commending the commander-in-chief, the Left and its lackeys in the media are criticizing President Trump and sympathizing with the mullahs and the “revered Iranian military figure,” Qassem Suleimani.

The following is a simple reminder.

President Obama started his term in office traveling the world apologizing for America. He blamed a YouTuber when our ambassador and three other Americans were murdered by al-Qaeda in Benghazi, Libya. He sent Hillary Clinton to her Russian counterpart to give him a “reset” button. He also sent Putin a personal message to be patient because he would have “more flexibility” after his election.

Obama sent blankets and MREs to Ukraine after Putin invaded and took Crimea. He told us ISIS was just a JV team. Then after they established a caliphate, he told Americans ISIS was a “generational threat” we just had to get used to.

Pompeo brings down the House The U.S. Secretary of State turns the tables on the false correlation between the existence of settlements and the lack of peace between Israelis and Palestinians. Ruthie Blum

https://www.jns.org/opinion/pompeo-brings-down-the-house/

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo returned fire on Monday to a large group of House Democrats who lambasted him last month for declaring that Israeli settlements in Judea and Samaria (the West Bank) are not illegal.

In a letter to Michigan Rep. Andy Levin, who led 106 of his colleagues to sign a joint complaint against what they called the “State Department’s unilateral reversal on the status of settlements, without any clear legal justification,” Pompeo picked apart each false claim lobbed by the likes of “Squad” members Reps. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) with the force of an ax and the slice of a razor blade.

Kudos to him for putting them in their place, particularly when their objections are as far-fetched as their objectives.

Take their ridiculous assertion, for instance, that the announcement about the legitimacy of Israeli settlements “has discredited the United States as an honest broker between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, severely damaged prospects for peace and endangered the security of America, Israel and the Palestinian people. … [It also has] offered a tacit endorsement of settlements, their expansion and associated demolitions of Palestinian homes … ”

Iran fills the Vacuum Created by Trump’s Withdrawal by Con Coughlin

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15271/iran-vacuum-trump-withdrawal

President Trump has hastened the withdrawal of American forces from Syria, and is actively seeking to reduce America’s military presence elsewhere in the region, with troop withdrawals under active consideration in countries such as Iraq and Afghanistan.

“Russia is always on standby to fill power voids. That is how it happened that Russian troops swept in when the US left northern Syria. To sum up that still unfolding story: nobody will remember it as our finest hour.”

“There are some deeply malign forces at work in the broader Middle East…disengagement is just another term for leaving all the power to them.” – Richard Cheney, Former US Vice President,” Arab Strategy Forum, Dubai.

It is a measure of the failure of the nuclear deal with Iran that former US President Barack Obama helped to negotiate in 2015 that Tehran used the brief easing of tensions with Washington to strengthen and consolidate its military presence in Arab countries such as Syria, Lebanon and Iraq.

There are now serious concerns that Mr Trump’s desire to reduce America’s military presence in the Middle East will only encourage Iran to intensify its own activity, thereby increasing the threat to Israel and pro-Western Arab states.

The problem for small states such as Lebanon, though, is that they are no match for a regional superpower like Iran. And so long as the mullahs have the resources and weaponry to maintain their aggressive presence in the region, there is very little that small states like Lebanon can do to stop them.

The threat by a senior commander in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps this week “to flatten Tel Aviv” from Iranian-controlled bases in southern Lebanon provides arguably the most graphic example of the deepening dangers the region faces as a result of the Trump administration’s decision to scale down its military presence.

Is NATO Still Vital? by Lawrence A. Franklin

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15265/is-nato-still-vital

Many additional countries who joined the alliance — such as Poland, Hungary and the Baltic States, which had been Soviet satellites — still consider post-Communist Russia an extremely disquieting potential threat. That is just one issue that has created friction among NATO nations….

The larger question [is] the degree to which enemy countries perceive NATO as a unified organization that would respond militarily to aggression against any member state — a crucial psychological factor in deterrence.

Its reason for being should not be written off quite yet…

The two-day summit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) — held in London on December 3-4 to commemorate its 70th anniversary — may have been marked by controversy, but the gathering constituted an important reminder of why the international alliance was established in the first place.

Founded in April 1949 by the United States, Canada, Belgium, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal and the United Kingdom, NATO was a pact created to counter the world’s greatest threat at the time: the Soviet Union and its race for global domination.

At the time, it was clear that all NATO members were dependent on and deferred to American political and military leadership. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, however, some of the original NATO member states began to seek systems that would protect their particular individual interests.

Germany, for instance, has become Europe’s economic powerhouse, enjoying a favorable balance of trade with the US. France, no longer viewing Russia as an existential threat to the Free World, now seems more motivated to protect NATO’s southern flank from radical Islamic terrorist groups in West Africa, and from mass migration from former French colonies in North Africa.

Meanwhile, many additional countries who joined the alliance — such as Poland, Hungary and the Baltic States, which had been Soviet satellites — still consider post-Communist Russia an extremely disquieting potential threat. That is just one issue that has created friction among NATO nations, particularly with Turkey’s decision to purchase a Russian air defense system. Another internal bone of contention is the failure of some members to reach the minimum defense-spending level of 2% of GDP, a goal established by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.

What Purpose Does NATO Serve? What U.S. interests does the bloated bureaucracy advance — at our expense? Bruce Thornton

https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/2019/12/what-purpose-does-nato-serve-bruce-thornton/

While the political class obsessed over act two of the House impeachment hearings while normal people ignored them, NATO met in London for an international photo-op and a celebration of the treaty’s 70th anniversary. Nothing of substance happened, and no needed reforms were discussed. Thirty years after the collapse of the Soviet Union made NATO irrelevant, no one can say what strategic purpose this bloated bureaucracy serves, nor how––despite being financed mainly by the U.S––it advances U.S. interests and security.

Of course we were treated to the usual claims that “NATO kept the peace” in Europe during the Cold War, along with the other institutions of the “rules-based international order.” This globalist marketing slogan is hard to credit. The postwar Europeans were in no condition to fight each other, because most had neither the matériel nor the morale to fight with. Nor did NATO keep the Soviets out of Europe: that was accomplished by 70,000 American nuclear warheads and 400,000 American troops. The contributions of European pygmy-militaries to American military capability were in the end comparatively minimal.

Then there were the usual petty squabbles, snarking at President Trump, and bombastic rhetoric about the “world’s oldest military alliance.” The issue of European members’ continuing failure to increase their puny military spending was brought up again. Trump-haters, of course, have used his aggressive lobbying of the Europeans on this score to buttress their claims that he is a dangerous geopolitical ignoramus unschooled in the technical and diplomatic knowledge of the foreign policy establishment and the “interagency consensus” mentioned in act one of the House impeachment hearings––finally, a confession that we do indeed have an unaccountable “managerial elite” that thinks it should run foreign policy rather than their boss, the Chief Executive elected by the people, and the Commander in Chief to whom the Constitution has given this authority.

WALTER RUSSEL MEAD ON TRUMP FOREIGN POLICY

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukrainegatetreason-or-common-sense-11575937739?mod=opinion_lead_pos9

EXCERPT

Among the administration’s most consistent features is a belief that the U.S. should change the priority it gives to the different theaters in world politics. From this perspective, the center of gravity of American policy must move from the Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific. Latin America deserves more attention as a growing social and political crisis creates larger threats in the hemisphere—of which the chaos on the Southern border may be only a foretaste.

After Latin America, the threats of jihadist violence and Iranian expansionism make the Middle East the next-highest priority for the Trump administration. Europe, America’s highest priority for much of the Cold War, has fallen to fourth place. For the Trump administration and many of its Republican allies, Russia, because it is weaker and poorer than China, comes after Beijing on America’s list of geopolitical concerns—an important disagreement with the liberal Atlanticist foreign-policy establishment and not the only one.

Beyond geopolitics there is ideology. The rules-based world order means much less to Mr. Trump and to many Republican senators than it does to liberal Atlanticists. The president isn’t a believer in the application of the broken-windows theory of foreign policy—that a violation of one rule in one place materially increases the chance of other rules being broken in other places. A “realist” in the jargon of international relations, Mr. Trump thinks that national power matters much more than international law.

Appeasement is no way to deal with Iran Howard Rotberg

U.S. President Donald Trump is to be praised for his withdrawal from an agreement that would pave the way for Iranian nuclear power within 15 years, and his imposition of sanctions, writes Howard Rotberg.

In 1943 to 1945, Hitler’s costly obsession with killing every last Jew in Europe took precedence over military and economic basic needs in wartime. There came a point in the course of the war, when the resources used in rounding up and murdering European Jewry could have been used to strengthen a failing military.

And now we see another evil empire, Iran, prioritizing aid to its terrorist proxies, such as Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad and others to kill civilians in Israel, when the economy is in such straits that protesters are hitting the streets. The Iranian people see huge sums of money leaving the country to assist these terrorist groups in genocide of the Jews when American sanctions over the Iranian nuclear program have caused shortages of gas and oil and even rationing.

People also must question the cost of Iran propping up Syrian leader and war-criminal Bashar al-Assad, and its mischief in Yemen.

This past week, many Iranians showed they have had enough. Gas rationing and price increases may have been the instigation of these protests, however, as we see in Hong Kong, once the people take the first steps to challenge authority, a revolution may start if the people have lost their loyalty to the state.

US should back Iran’s protesters by Lawrence Haas

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/473200-us-should-back-irans-protesters

More than half a century ago, President John F. Kennedy re-wrote U.S. policy for the developing world with one goal in mind: to put America on the side of revolutionary forces that were seeking progressive change.

His predecessor, Dwight Eisenhower, had subjected U.S. policy in the developing world to the wishes of America’s European allies that maintained colonies across the world and often ruled harshly.

JFK, however, knew that change was coming in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, where hundreds of millions of people were growing increasingly frustrated over political oppression and stunted living standards. He also knew that the next generation of leaders on those continents would remember whether or not Washington had lent its support to their efforts. That would determine whether, in the aftermath of change, the United States found itself with new allies or new adversaries.

Washington faces that same question today in Iran, which is now home to what could be the most sustained protests since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. When the regime falls, as it surely will (whether in a month, a year, or a decade), will its successors look kindly on the support they received from Washington?

Strategic Questions for EU Leaders on NATO’s 70th Birthday By Christopher R. O’Dea

https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/12/strategic-questions-for-eu-leaders-on-natos-70th-birthday/

Now is the time for Trump to press Macron, Merkel, and others on the security risks posed by China.

L eaders of North Atlantic Treaty Organization countries are gathering in London this week to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the alliance. It’s the perfect opportunity for President Trump to declare a big halftime lead in his campaign to persuade other members to meet their financial obligations to the alliance. It’s also an opportunity to meet one-on-one with European leaders and assess their readiness to confront the growing threats that China’s geopolitical expansion poses to alliance members.

France
Trump should take French president Emmanuel Macron’s call for a new EU army as a sign of interest in defending France, NATO members, and the West from new security challenges. But a few questions could help channel Macron’s vigor into efforts against more-immediate threats.

For example: Does France have any plan to evaluate the cybersurveillance risks posed by the Chinese undersea fiber-optic cable soon coming ashore in Marseille? Ironically named the PEACE cable, the fiber link will add a major new connection between the EU and China through interchanges serving Pakistan and Djibouti. The PEACE cable involved Huawei Marine Networks until U.S. attention on Huawei forced it to sell its subsea subsidiary. The buyer, Hengtong Optic-Electric Co. Ltd. is a Chinese conglomerate of more than 50 companies in telecommunications, cable systems, and electrical power. Hengtong became involved in the PEACE cable last October, when it set up a venture company for the project in cooperation with Hong Kong-based PCCW Limited, and appointed Huawei Marine to perform the undersea work. For its part, PCCW is partly owned by China Unicom Group, a Chinese state-owned telecommunications company. PCCW runs the electronic passport and identity card systems for the Hong Kong government, as well as the securities clearing system for the Hong Kong Exchange.

Such complexity is par for the course with Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs). But it should not confuse Macron, himself an investment banker trained in unraveling opaque corporate structures to get to the real decision-makers. The bottom line is that a Chinese technology SOE will soon have what French telecom operator Orange called a “gateway” into the EU data network, through the new digital window that Orange is building for the Chinese in Marseille.

Indeed, Marseille has become a major site of Chinese strategic expansion. The ancient port city is home to CMA CGM, a shipping and port operator that is the main partner in the Ocean Alliance with China’s COSCO Shipping — which now dominates global container shipping, port operations, and logistics services. Despite capital infusions from Chinese state lenders over the past several years, CMA recently announced it was selling its stake in 10 port terminals to China Merchants Port Holdings Co. Ltd., which already owns about half of CMA’s terminal business. The French line also sold two container ships to Shanghai Pudong Development Bank for an undisclosed price, and leased them back. The cash will help CMA finance its $1.7 billion purchase of CEVA Logistics, which operates one of the largest logistics businesses in the U.S. The stress on CMA’s financial resources prompted one rating agency to downgrade CMA’s debt, but more importantly, the bailout meant that Chinese operators had taken over the hard assets of a Western company in a strategically important sector.