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FOREIGN POLICY

No surprises: Netanyahu’s Iranian disclosures

The embarrassing collection of failures that made up the Obama foreign policy team is singing from the same songbook in response to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s expose of Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

“Nothing new here!” they sing in harmony.

The documents obtained by Israeli intelligence show the extent of Iran’s nuclear weapons program, and the steps that despotic regime has taken to keep the program secret.

Indeed, this comes as no surprise to anyone who was paying attention. Netanyahu’s presentation did not contain evidence that Iran has cheated since the 2015 deal was signed. But it shredded Iran’s laughable claim that it seeks nuclear energy, not nuclear warheads. It also undermines every claim made by the Obama administration in justifying the Iran deal.

The proof of Iran’s bad faith should be a warning to the White House as it heads into negotiations with North Korea. That rogue regime seeks international legitimacy and international aid in exchange for promises it has no intention of keeping.

The Obama foreign policy team showed itself to be a bevy of gullible saps, trading away American interests for false promises. Let us hope the Trump administration avoids the pitfall of signing a deal that will never be honored.

Apparently, Iran Deal Defenders Already Knew Iran Wasn’t to Be Trusted By Jim Geraghty

Making the click-through worthwhile: Iran deal defenders insist they always knew Tehran was lying all along; some overheated arguments about masculinity and books for kids; how most of the people making the loudest arguments in public discourse didn’t bother to do the homework; and a really strange and implausible accusation against Mitch McConnell.

Wait, Why Did We Ever Trust the Iranians Again?

Fans of the Iran deal scoff at Israeli prime minister Bibi Netanyahu’s presentation about the long and sordid history of Iran’s secret nuclear program: “There was nothing we didn’t already know.” “Everything he said was already known.” “There is nothing new in Bibi’s presentation.”

I don’t quite get how “hey, everybody always knew the Iranian regime lies all the time” is such a sterling defense of the Iran deal. I mean, is that we’re so confident in the limited inspections that we don’t think Iran would cheat by doing things at military sites? You can’t argue, “Oh, we never trusted their word” and “That’s why we have to keep trusting them” in the same breath.

Our new secretary of State:

“I know there are people talking about these documents not being authentic,” Pompeo added. “I can confirm for you that these documents are real; they’re authentic.”

Pompeo said that the files “spell out the scope and scale of the program that they undertook there, and I think makes – I think makes very clear that, at the very least, the Iranians have continued to lie to their own people. So while you say everyone knew, the Iranians have consistently taken the position that they’ve never had a program like this. This will – this will belie any notion that there wasn’t a program like this.”

Tug of War Over the Iran Deal By Angelo Codevilla

Last week, French President Emmanuel Macron came to Washington to lobby Donald Trump to break his promise to undo Barack Obama’s “Iran deal.” A few days later, Europe’s biggest figure, Germany’s Angela Merkel, came to town for the same purpose. Trump’s tendency to bend to the latest pressure being no secret, it was also no surprise that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivered a dramatic speech, citing chapter and verse about Iran’s nuclear program, intended to pull Trump back to his campaign promise: His “No. 1 priority” as president would be to “dismantle the disastrous deal with Iran.”

Netanyahu’s speech—cast as it was in terms of promises made and broken regarding military security, as opposed to the commercial interests that Merkel and Macron had brought to bear—seems to have had its intended effect. Trump said that Netanyahu’s details proved that he, Trump, had been “100 percent right” about “the deal,” and that withdrawing from it would “send the right message” to North Korea and others.

Netanyahu’s critics did not challenge his contention that the details came from very recent acquisitions of Israeli intelligence. There is no way of knowing the truth of that. More important, they could not dispute the accuracy of those details. The U.S. government confirmed that Iran’s nuclear program continues. Their main rejoinder is that Iran’s nuclear weapons program—which contradicts official contentions that it does not exist—is an old story. No less true for being old.

I doubt anybody is surprised that “the deal” did not pause or slow Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons, never mind stop it. Neither can anyone be surprised that the program kept the same director and personnel, and merely changed names as well as (some) venues. Not a few of the deal’s supporters state now that, as in 2015, the program’s strength “vindicates the need” for it.

In short, Netanyahu’s speech brought us back to square one. What should have been done then? What is to be done now?

Here’s a Collection of Ben Rhodes’ Tweets That Got Everything Wrong on Iran By David Steinberg

The Obama administration and the media outlets which disseminated Ben Rhodes’ (admitted) propaganda on the Iran nuclear deal were wrong about everything.

The Republicans, President Donald Trump, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu were right.

Here’s a collection of Ben Rhodes on Twitter — now as a likely member of the alliance pushing the comical narrative of a 2018 “#BlueWave” — getting everything wrong on Iran right up until the past few weeks:
Ben Rhodes
✔ @brhodes
It would not be “so easy” since there is a far-reaching inspections and verification regime to ensure that Iran is abiding by its commitments (which it is). Will Trump achieve a similar regime in North Korea? Does he even know how these agreements work?
Ben Rhodes
✔ @brhodes

The Iran Deal imposes strict, verified limitations on Iran’s centrifuges and stockpile to prevent them from obtaining a nuclear weapon. What Trump has talked about on NK – a vague, unverified commitment to denuclearization – is nowhere near as restrictive as the Iran Deal.

To Promote Nonproliferation, Kill the Iran Deal Now The Europeans won’t do business with Tehran if that means losing access to American banks. By Jamil N. Jaffer

Will President Trump terminate the Iran nuclear deal? Many national-security experts are concerned he will, by refusing to waive sanctions that are up for renewal in mid-May. Some worry that unilaterally reimposing sanctions on Iran would isolate the U.S. internationally, as Europe’s leaders still broadly support the deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Others argue that the JCPOA is working and Iran is largely abiding by its commitments. Still others urge the U.S. to continue waiving sanctions if the Europeans are willing to consider potential changes to the deal.

Each of these camps is deeply misguided. Should Mr. Trump refuse to continue the Obama -era policy of waiving Iran sanctions and opt to reimpose them unilaterally, Europe will have no choice but to go along. The key sanctions imposed by Congress in 2011-12—in the face of staunch opposition from the Obama White House—are “secondary” sanctions, meaning they operate by imposing costs on countries that continue to do business with Iran. Under this regime, every nation must choose between doing business with Iran and maintaining access to the American banking system. This isn’t a real choice, since no country can function economically by cutting itself off from the U.S.

Indeed, the Europeans lobbied hard against these sanctions—and convinced the Obama White House to do the same—because they knew they could never choose Iran over the U.S. They were right. When it became clear that congressional support for the sanctions was sufficient to override Mr. Obama’s threatened veto, Europe also went along, albeit unhappily. The massive economic pressure produced by the sanctions forced the Iranian regime to the negotiating table for the first time in years.

The Obama administration ultimately squandered its negotiating leverage on a weak deal with deep and enduring flaws: extremely short sunsets, after which Iran will be able to sprint to a nuclear weapon even faster than before; the ability to conduct research under the deal on advanced uranium centrifuges that will further shorten Iran’s breakout time; expanded testing of ballistic missiles that would widen the kill zone of an Iranian nuclear weapon; a self-testing regime on existing nuclear military sites that protects Iran’s illegal weaponization activities; sanctions relief providing an economic boost to the Iranian regime, removing significant pressure and providing the time, space, and resources to work on a valid warhead design; and no link whatever to Iran’s destabilizing activities in the region or support for terrorist groups world-wide like Hezbollah. CONTINUE AT SITE

U.S. Fighters for Taiwan The island democracy needs advanced air power to deter China.

Chinese bombers and warships conducted exercises near Taiwan this month, a show of force that officials in Beijing called a warning not to pursue formal independence. Last year the number of Chinese air patrols off Taiwan’s east coast quadrupled, and Beijing under President Xi Jinping has stepped up pressure on the island democracy to “reunify” with the motherland.

China’s bullying is raising alarms in the U.S., which is obligated to help Taiwan defend itself under the Taiwan Relations Act. The mainland People’s Liberation Army is deploying new jets, ships and other weapons in such numbers that the island’s defenses are in danger of being overwhelmed. Past U.S. Administrations failed to sell Taiwan the weapons it needs, and much of its arsenal is outdated.

The island’s most pressing need is air power. The mainstay of Taiwan’s fighter force is a fleet of 144 F-16s bought in the mid-1990s. Fewer than half the planes are ready for combat at any time, thanks to the maintenance required by aging aircraft and upgrades. Taiwan is pleading for new fighters to counter China’s advanced planes such as the Russian-made Su-35.

American Greatness in the Mideast Means Protecting Israel By Brandon J. Weichert

The American-led Middle East order is collapsing. Rival powers and regional actors now jockey for position in the region, in an attempt to form the next order there. While America’s position as the de facto regional hegemon has imploded, we still retain an immense amount of power—and, through our traditional allies in the Sunni Arab states and Israel—can help shape whatever comes next in that geostrategically vital place. For the United States to help establish a new regional order that remains relatively amenable to American national interests, the United States must protect Israel—and not just with rhetoric.

Israel is a fellow democratic state facing the same enemies that we face: Sunni jihadism and Iranian imperialism. Israel is also home to one of the world’s most capable militaries and houses one of the most dynamic economies. The United States effectively served as midwife at the birth of Israel as an independent country, so in addition to interest, we have sentiment and affection with Israel.

A Mideast without Israel would be a region that is still vitally important for the global economy and one lacking any conduit for real American influence. Loss of influence there would be a serious threat to our ability to preserve our own national independence. And make no mistake: an Israel-free Middle East is precisely what Iran (and even some of the Sunni Arab states) want.

Iran’s Genocidal Ambitions
Whereas Sunni Arab states with histories of exporting terrorism (such as Saudi Arabia) are now moving toward reform, Iran has made no effort to restrain its Islamist fervor. In fact, Iran’s constitution giddily declares that its armed forces “will be responsible not only for guarding and preserving the frontiers of the country, but also for fulfilling the ideological mission of jihad in God’s way; that is, extending the sovereignty of God’s law [Sharia] throughout the world.” As Ilan Berman observed, “Iran’s radical vision of Islamic governance . . . was intended from the start to be an export commodity.”

Antisemitism and anti-Americanism, not oil, are the true the lifeblood of Iran. More recently, the regime in Tehran has denied that the Holocaust ever happened—while simultaneously promising to usher in a new Holocaust (only this time with nuclear weapons). After the disastrous U.S. “war of choice” in Iraq, followed by our equally moronic support for regime change in Libya, Egypt, and (until Trump’s arrival) Syria, along with the Obama Administration’s foolish nuclear agreement with Iran, Israel’s position has never been more tenuous.

Pompeo: Trump ‘unlikely’ to stay in Iran deal ‘absent substantial fix’

Newly confirmed Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Friday said President Trump is “unlikely” to stay in the Iran nuclear deal unless he can get “substantial” fixes.

“There’s been no decision made, so the team is working, and I’m sure we’ll have lots of conversations to deliver what the president has made clear,” Pompeo told reporters during a trip to Brussels for a NATO foreign ministers meeting. “Absent a substantial fix, absent overcoming the shortcomings, the flaws of the deal, he is unlikely to stay in that deal past this May.”

Trump has set a May 12 deadline for European allies to agree to a supplemental deal to cover what he sees as gaps in the international accord or else he will essentially withdraw the United States from the agreement.

The Obama-era deal between the United States, Iran, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany and the European Union provided Tehran billions in sanctions relief in exchange for curbing its nuclear program.

Trump sees three main issues with the deal: several provisions sunset, inspectors can’t demand to see some military sites, and it does not address Iran’s other activities, including its ballistic missile program and support for terrorist organizations.

North Korean summit calls for a hard line from Trump By Lawrence J. Haas

With more freedom to maneuver on foreign than domestic affairs, and with their eyes focused squarely on their legacies, all modern U.S. presidents have sought to craft the elusive deal that will solve a protracted global conflict. So, with dismal prospects for Israeli-Palestinian peace, we shouldn’t be surprised that President Trump is now pursuing a deal to end North Korea’s nuclear program.

The coming summit between Trump and Kim Jong Un presents the riskiest of situations for the United States, however, for it pits the least knowledgeable modern-day president on foreign affairs against a shrewd young dictator who’s maintaining the family dynasty in the same iron-fisted way as his father and grandfather.

That raises the stakes immeasurably for the United States, which seeks a full rollback of North Korea’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief and a warming of relations between the two nations – and it has huge implications for U.S. relations with China and such American allies as South Korea and Japan.

Worse, Trump will square off against a leader whose predecessors cut multiple deals of a similar, though less ambitious, nature with Washington – a North Korean freeze or partial rollback of its nuclear program in exchange for U.S. aid – only to see Pyongyang renege and later resume its nuclear advancement.

Macron in Washington:By:Srdja Trifkovic

French President Emanuel Macron’s three-day visit to Washington started on an awkward notewhen he kissed an obviously uncomfortable President Donald Trump. The scene was a symbolic reminder that the two leaders do not enjoy an “intense, close relationship” invented by the media. In reality Macron is, both ideologically and temperamentally, the polar opposite of Trump. The latter was admittedly impressed by the welcome he received for the Bastille Day celebration in Paris last year, and Macron has the distinction of being the first foreign leader to come for a state visit to Trump’s Washington, but there is less than meets the eye to their alleged “chemistry.”

To start with the basics, Trump and Macron are not “two alpha males,” and I have this sneaky suspicion that the leftist-liberal media machine is keen to award the French president Trump’s indubitable “alpha” status in order to neutralize suspicions about Macron’s sexual orientation. In reality, while Trump is a heterosexual who evidently likes pretty women younger than himself, Macron is most likely a bisexual who was fond of older women as a teenager—his wife is 24 years his senior—but now prefers handsome younger men, like the former Radio France president Mathieu Gallet.

Trump is an eccentric in many ways, to be sure, but for all his faults he is genuine and honest, a true albeit diminishing American type. Macron is the poster-boy of Europe’s postmodern transnational elite, a former international banker and fanatical Euro-integralist. He is also an Islamophile (“No religion is a problem in France today . . . What poses a problem is not Islam, but certain behaviors that are said to be religious and then imposed on persons who practice that religion”) and an open-borders enthusiast (by allowing over a million migrants in, “[Chancellor] Merkel and German society as a whole exemplified our common European values. They saved our collective dignity”). In February 2017 he lampooned Trump’s promise to protect America’s southern border by pledging never to build a wall of any kind.