RUTHFULLY YOURS

https://amgreatness.com/2023/06/18/the-ukraine-american-gordian-knot/

Most Americans sympathize with Ukraine and were and are willing to supply it with defensive weapons to repel Russian aggression. 

Proof of that goodwill is the virtual draining of U.S. weapon stocks—from stockpiles of anti-tank weapons and large-caliber artillery shells to anti-aircraft and surface-to-surface missiles. Yet the more the United States gives, the more Volodymyr Zelenskyy demands—and the more the American people acquiesce in sympathy for his plight. 

Given such U.S. largess, Ukraine currently enjoys the third-largest defense budget in the world, behind only the United States itself and China in annual outlays. That gargantuan expenditure is a result almost exclusively of American massive arms shipments and other NATO countries’ arms transfers, all based on a commitment to help Ukraine repel Russian aggression. Officials in Russia, Ukraine, and the United States have all agreed that the war is a high-stakes proxy conflict between nuclear Russia and nuclear NATO. 

The original mission, as assumed, was to aid Ukraine in pushing the invader back to the prior post-2014 borders, de facto established by prior Russian invasions that had absorbed the disputed eastern border and Crimea. Then supposedly, negotiations would begin to adjudicate the ancient border disputes that had led to the first iteration of fighting in 2014. 

The Disputed Ukrainian-Russian Border 

Ukraine’s latest counteroffensive could, in fact, get close to achieving that goal of reclaiming much of the ground taken after February 2022. 

But apparently, the war’s aims have now shifted to reestablishing the 2013 Ukrainian-Russian border. That is an ambitious agenda and, in the past, neither President Barack Obama nor Donald Trump nor Joe Biden had ever signed on to it. Oddly, those on the Left calling for the utter defeat and humiliation of the Putin regime and the retaking of Crimea (and who also gave us 2009 Russian “reset”) had rarely voiced such agendas after the 2014 aggression during the Obama Administration. (And remember that was not Putin’s first rodeo; he had invaded Georgia and absorbed South Ossetia in 2008). 

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/19731/biden-arabs-trust

Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states apparently still do not trust the Biden Administration, largely because of its perceived abandonment of its traditional Arab allies in the Middle East and President Joe Biden’s hostility to Saudi Arabia. This view began with then-presidential candidate Biden declaring the kingdom a “pariah” state — and is continuing with US attempts, still ongoing, to revive a “nuclear deal” that will enable an expansionist Iran to have nuclear weapons potentially to topple other countries in the region.

Meanwhile, the same Biden Administration has continued to cozy up to the Iranian regime, which the US’s own Department of State has called the “top state sponsor of terrorism” and which has, until recently, has not only been attacking both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates through Iran’s proxy militia, the Houthis in Yemen, but has also been supplying troops and weapons to Russia for attacking Ukraine.

The message being sent is that being America’s enemy pays handsomely, while, as with Afghanistan, being America’s friend can be fatal.

The London-based Rai Al-Youm online newspaper said that Blinken’s visit to Saudi Arabia failed to achieve most of its goals, including promoting normalization between the Kingdom and Israel. According to the newspaper, the Saudi media ignored Blinken’s visit, while playing up the arrival of former Real Madrid soccer player Karim Benzema in the Kingdom….

“There are many obstacles to America’s success in playing these roles, including what is related to the nuclear file, as a nuclear Iran remains a concern for the Gulf and for other countries in the region. The [Saudi] agreement with Iran may alleviate this concern, but it will not dispel it. Washington’s success in settling this file in a way that does not threaten the security and stability of the Gulf states is the bottom line and it is what will determine the future of Washington’s relations with the countries of the region.” — Sam Mansi, Lebanese columnist, Asharq Al-Awsat, June 12, 2023.

“[W]hatever Blinken achieved during his visit to Saudi Arabia will remain weak and incomplete in the face of the dangers of ongoing tensions in Yemen, Syria, Iraq and other conflict areas, most notably the civil war that broke out recently in Sudan, in addition to the comprehensive challenges posed by the fraught relations between Iran and Israel, which may explode if there is no progress in the nuclear talks, and if more daring steps are not taken to limit Iran’s continuation of uranium enrichment, and Iran’s public support for Russia and its cooperation with it in the context of the war against Ukraine.” — Sam Mansi, Asharq Al-Awsat, June 12, 2023.

Judging from the reactions of these Arabs to Blinken’s recent visit to Saudi Arabia, it is clear that the Saudis and other Arabs have lost confidence in the Biden administration and are not pinning any hopes on it to bring security and stability to the Middle East.

Moreover, it is evident that the Saudis feel so offended by Biden that they are willing to move closer to Iran and Russia if that enables them to steer clear of the American president. It will take more than a visit by Biden or Blinken or Sullivan to repair the damage that has been done to America’s relations with Arab countries that used to respect the US. In fact, it is safe to assume that the Arabs’ attitudes toward the Biden administration will remain steady regardless of any effort that this administration might choose to make.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/19727/capitulation-to-iran

The Biden administration also reportedly wants to pump $17 billion dollars into the Iranian regime’s treasury. These benefits will not only enable the mullahs’ to finalize their nuclear weapons program, but also to send more arms to Russia to attack Ukraine, as well as to further enable the regime’s ruthless expansion throughout the Middle East — in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Lebanon and the terrorist groups in the Gaza Strip — and throughout Latin America.

The US, intriguingly, seems hell-bent on supporting a regime that its own Department of State has called the “top state sponsor of terrorism.”

Based on Iran’s abysmal track record of complying with its own agreements, any deal in which Iran might promise to stop enriching uranium is just a sick joke.

“I continue to believe, Biden said on July 14, “that diplomacy is the best way to achieve this outcome.”

Someone recently replied, “Neville Chamberlain believed that diplomacy was the best way, too.”

The Biden administration, by keeping the American people and the Congress in the dark regarding these ongoing secret negotiations with Iran, appear to understand that is doing something malign. The countries disastrously affected by any “deal” with the Islamist regime of Iran are “only” the US, the Gulf States, Israel, Latin America and Europe. The Biden administration nevertheless appears determined to give the ruling mullahs of Iran the ultimate $17 billion gift: the deadly nuclear deal — so that Iran will promise not to use their nuclear weapons on this administration’s watch.

In spite of strong opposition from the Congress, the Biden administration has been holding​ ​secret talks in Oman to reward the ruling mullahs of Iran with a nuclear deal that will pave the way for Iran legally to obtain as many nuclear weapons as it likes, empower the ruling mullahs with billions of dollars, lift sanctions, allow it to rejoin the global financial system and enhance the theocratic regime’s legitimacy on the global stage.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-administration-iran-deal-nuclear-weapons-international-atomic-energy-agency-7251bbe1?mod=opinion_lead_pos1

Here we go again. The same people who gave us the Iran nuclear deal in 2015 are trying to pull off a new version that would send Iran cash on day one in return for promises down the road.

The deal taking shape, per press reports in the U.S. and Israel, isn’t the “longer and stronger” agreement President Biden promised. He held that out for months but Iran refused. Now, in a remarkable retreat, the Biden Administration is pursuing an unwritten “understanding” with Iran to get to the brink of a nuclear breakout but go no further.

Iran has enough uranium enriched to 60% purity for several nuclear weapons, and it can get to weapons-grade quickly. But the U.S. isn’t asking Iran to turn over enriched material. The deal mooted in the press offers financial relief for Iran via sanctions waivers, plus a promise of no new sanctions or International Atomic Energy Agency censures, while requesting only that Iran not enrich uranium beyond 60%.

Color us skeptical that an unwritten agreement, without clear technical restrictions, would compel Iran to reinstall monitoring equipment, turn over data or submit to enhanced inspections. It isn’t clear what role the IAEA would play, and the U.S. would risk Iranian withdrawal if it insisted on real verification or responded meaningfully to Iran’s foreign aggression or domestic crackdowns.

“Trust but verify” is being turned on its head. There’s no trust and little verification. The new strategy is hope and pay.

Last week the U.S. gave Iraq a sanctions waiver to pay Iran $2.76 billion for gas and electricity. This looks like the kind of goodwill gesture—a bribe to keep talking—that the U.S. ruled out in October 2021. The Biden Administration says the waiver is unrelated, citing past payments driven by Iraqi energy needs, but this one is five times as large.

The Administration says Iran will spend the Iraqi funds only on food and medicine, as if money isn’t fungible. In reality the U.S. is freeing up billions of dollars that will finance the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its imperialism across the Middle East.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/19705/irans-human-rights-abuses

[J]ust a few days after the regime executed two young men, Yousef Mehrad and Sadrollah Fazeli Zare, for “blasphemy,” Iran was rewarded by being appointed chair of the United Nations Human Rights Council 2023 Social Forum, as well as being handsomely compensated by the European Union.

“Iran human rights role ‘like granting Bin Laden a Nobel Peace Prize’.” — The Telegraph.

As if to underscore this triumph, right after the UN appointment, Iran’s regime on May 19 proceeded to execute three more men — Majid Kazemi, Saleh Mirhashemi and Saeed Yaghoubi – for having participated in anti-regime protests.

“[Iranian] Authorities Execute Over 60 People in Past 2 Weeks.” — Human Rights Watch, May 12, 2023.

“The Iranian authorities’ dramatic escalation of executions in recent weeks is a serious violation of the right to life and should bring international condemnation… Since late April, the Iranian authorities have executed at least 60 people, including an Iranian-Swedish national on alleged terror-related charges. Many were executed after unfair trials or for charges, such as drug offenses as well and two executions for ‘blasphemy,’ that under international law should never result in the death penalty.” — Human Rights Watch, May 12, 2023.

So, Germany, which preaches about human rights and its “feminist foreign policy”, has actually increased its business with Iran….

“We believe it is time to hold the leadership of the Islamic Republic of Iran to account for its crimes…. We urge your nations to stand with the Iranian people in their quest for change and to take decisive steps against the current regime. This includes blacklisting the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) and holding regime officials accountable for their crimes against humanity.” — Letter signed May 23, 2023 by former Vice President Mike Pence and 107 other former world leaders. Fox News; May 23, 2023.

It is abhorrent and unacceptable that the EU and the UN keep propping up a regime that is a world leader in executions and violations of human rights — and that will not hesitate to use its nuclear weapons capability as well as the threat of it.

Not only have the Biden Administration, the EU, and the UN have been silent in the face of the Iranian regime’s increasing human rights violations, but just a few days after the regime executed two young men, Yousef Mehrad and Sadrollah Fazeli Zare, for “blasphemy,” Iran was rewarded by being appointed chair of the United Nations Human Rights Council 2023 Social Forum, as well as being handsomely compensated by the European Union.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/19654/iran-nuclear-bombs

At present, the ruling mullahs of Iran reportedly have enough enriched uranium to produce five nuclear bombs.

General Hossein Salami, the chief of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has made the Iranian regime’s plans vehemently clear: “Our strategy is to erase Israel from the global political map,” he stated on Iran’s state-controlled Channel 2 TV in 2019. Khamenei has also published a 416-page guidebook, titled Palestine about destroying Israel — which Iran’s former “moderate” President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, basically referred to as a one-bomb country.

“Iran is 50 North Koreas; it is not merely a neighborhood bully like the dynasty that rules North Korea… This is an ideological force that views us, Israel, as a small satan, and views you as the great satan — and to have Iran being able to threaten every city in the United States with nuclear blackmail is a changing of history.” — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, timesofisrael.com, May 4, 2023.

Finally, there is always the danger of nuclear weapons falling into the hands of Iran’s proxy and militia groups, or that the Iranian regime will share its nuclear technology with its allies, such as the Syrian regime or the Taliban in Afghanistan – or sell it to anyone with the funds or political leverage to buy it.

How many nuclear weapons will the Iranian regime — called by the US Department of State a “top sponsor of state terrorism” — obtain before the Biden Administration’s term ends?

The Biden Administration has been the biggest gift to the ruling mullahs of Iran as their Islamist regime has been freely and rapidly advancing its nuclear program to unprecedented levels during President Joe Biden’s term.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/19646/biden-harming-ukraine-victory-prospects

While U.S. President Joe Biden has constantly pledged his support for Kyiv, his rhetoric has invariably failed to result in providing the Ukrainians with the military support they require. Even when, as happened earlier this year, the White House reluctantly agreed to provide Ukraine with Abrams tanks – a move that was only approved after Washington came under intense pressure from allies such as Poland – the slow delivery timetable has made Ukrainian commanders despair that the equipment will ever actually arrive.

As for the promised Abrams tanks, U.S. officials readily admit that the Abrams are months away from arriving as the Pentagon looks at its stocks to see what it can send.

In a recent interview with Foreign Policy magazine, Sasha Ustinova, a Ukrainian lawmaker, confirmed the U.S. military had delivered far less than what Valeriy Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s top general, had asked for from the Pentagon. U.S. military aid is only arriving piecemeal as the Biden administration warns it is nearing the end of its ability to provide weapons that can be pulled off of the Pentagon’s shelves to give to the Ukrainians.

Ustinova said that Ukraine hoped to begin the offensive in April, but the lack of weapons has pushed the launch date back indefinitely.

Certainly, any delay in the Ukrainians launching their offensive will only help to convince the Kremlin that, despite all the setbacks it has suffered over the course of the past year, it may still end up winning the war.

The Biden administration’s constant dithering over supplying weapons to Ukraine is proving to be a decisive factor in the Ukrainian military’s decision to delay its long-awaited spring counter-offensive against Russian forces.

Since the end of last year, when the Ukrainians inflicted a series of humiliating defeats against their Russian foes, Kyiv has been warning that it is in urgent need of fresh supplies of military equipment from its Western allies if it is to continue its campaign to liberate Ukrainian territory from Russian occupation.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/19653/biden-china-aggression

[Hostile elements in senior Chinese Communist Party circles], thanks to the State Department, now have additional incentives to engage in belligerent conduct, and, in light of Washington’s craven behavior, every nation that looks to America for security has to be extremely concerned.

[Rick Waters, deputy assistant secretary of state for China and Taiwan] informed subordinates that Secretary of State Antony Blinken… had delayed already-planned actions [in response to China’s spy balloon] to avoid increasing tensions with Beijing.

Those planned actions included export-control licensing rules for Huawei Technologies and sanctions on China’s officials for repression of Uyghurs. Reuters reported that these China measures “have yet to be revived.”

Why did the Biden administration delay taking action? It is still devoted to policies that have failed for three decades. “The recent revelation that senior State Department officials purposefully directed the postponement of actions against China following the discovery, and eventual shootdown, of a probable PLA reconnaissance balloon reflects a return to the ideology of engagement at all costs,” James Fanell of the Geneva Centre for Security Policy told Gatestone.

In short, China has successfully intimidated the American government.

Defenders of the State Department’s postponement of the Huawei and Uyghur measures have suggested that Washington will gain support among fence-sitting countries by showing that the United States was doing all it could to accommodate Beijing, ultimately making China appear the recalcitrant party.

Such an argument might have made sense three decades ago, but certainly not at this late date. If countries by now do not perceive the danger posed by China, they never will. The way to obtain that consensus is Reagan-style American leadership — and American coercive diplomacy. Both, at the moment, are in short supply.

Lowest common denominator solutions — the inevitable result of consensus building — do not work when danger is imminent. Now, Ukraine has become a great-power battleground, China and Russia are rapidly destabilizing North Africa, and the world looks as if it is just one conflict away from global war.

Unfortunately, China cannot stop talking about war and is fast making preparations for it. Chinese President Xi Jinping is implementing the largest military buildup since the Second World War; he is trying to sanctions-proof China; he is stockpiling grain and taking control of all agriculture; he is surveying America for nuclear weapons strikes; and, most ominously, he is mobilizing China’s civilians for battle. China’s military has, Cultural Revolution-style, launched a purge of officers opposed to war. The recent death sentence handed down to retired Air Force General Liu Yazhou, who had argued against an invasion of Taiwan, is of particular concern.

We are running out of time. There is, however, almost no sense of urgency in Biden’s Washington and in the most senior levels of the Pentagon.

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan had more than 10 hours of meetings with China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, in Vienna on the 10th and 11th of this month. The free-wheeling discussions have restarted what Washington Post columnist David Ignatius approvingly called “constructive engagement.”

Beijing, unfortunately, is merely playing the same old game of three decades: holding out the prospect of talks in order to get American presidents to delay taking action. Dialogue with a cynical Beijing is almost always fruitless. At this moment, China is trying to prevent both the G7, which will meet in Hiroshima starting May 19th, from taking action against Beijing’s coercive economic diplomacy and the Biden administration from issuing long-awaited rules prohibiting investment into Chinese technology sectors.

Xi appears to believe he has no reason to work “constructively” with America. “Change is coming that hasn’t happened in 100 years,” he proclaimed on March 22 while bidding farewell to Vladimir Putin in Moscow after their 40th in-person chat. “And we are driving this change together.”

The Biden administration is even moving in the wrong direction. “The Chinese Communist Party spent the past 30 years digging their talons into America’s flesh, and a return to engagement will make getting rid of Beijing’s influence even more painful,” said Fanell, also a former U.S. Navy captain who served as Director of Intelligence and Information Operations at the U.S. Pacific Fleet.

Once again, Western democracies are not recognizing threats and acting with the speed and determination required.

China has completely intimidated the Biden administration. Americans — and others around the world — must worry what happens next.

The State Department delayed imposing sanctions, export controls, and other measures on China after the Chinese military brazenly flew its large spy balloon over Alaska, Canada and the lower 48 states in late January and early February.