Displaying posts categorized under

FOREIGN POLICY

Will Trump and Witkoff repeat Obama and Kerry’s Iran blunders? Negotiations led by a compromised envoy for an administration that remains divided over stopping Tehran’s nuclear ambitions aren’t likely to succeed. Jonathan Tobin

https://www.jns.org/will-trump-and-witkoff-repeat-obama-and-kerrys-iran-blunders/?utm_campaign=

It’s too soon to declare the Trump administration’s policy toward Iran a failure. In time—and perhaps less time than Tehran might think—President Donald Trump may resolve the open debate between members of his foreign-policy team over whether continued efforts at diplomacy are the proper course of action or if military force is needed to stop the Islamist regime from getting a nuclear weapon.

At present, however, the debate going on inside the administration about the issue and the manifest incompetence of his already compromised Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, does not, to understate the matter, inspire much confidence in a good outcome being achieved. The only reason to think otherwise is if you trust the president’s ability to tell the difference between a deal that actually eliminates the Iranian threat and one that won’t, and believe that he’s truly willing to back up his bellicose language with action.

What stands out about the situation is that it appears to be the only major issue on which Trump’s appointees are not speaking with one voice and pursuing a common agenda. And it is that division within its councils that is both preventing a decisive approach and likely causing the Iranian regime to think that it can get away with the same tactics that allowed it to emerge as the victor in past negotiations with the Obama and Biden administrations.

Witkoff In His Own Words Is Witkoff breaking new ground or repeating Biden’s errors? by Daniel Greenfield

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/21563/wikoff-in-his-own-words

Witkoff, whatever his flaws, is far more honest than his PR men on X or Capitol Hill, and has never denied that he was just implementing the policies of the Biden administration.

What new solutions has Witkoff come up with? The Obama ones. Negotiate with terrorists. Pretend they’re reasonable. Give them what they want. Act confused when it doesn’t work out.

Figuring out what the terrorists want and trying to give it to them were the signature diplomatic policies of the Carter, Clinton and Biden administrations. Those are the “old-school globalist solutions,” which is why President Donald Trump is such a breath of fresh air and Witkoff isn’t.

Whatever Witkoff’s agendas are, he’s in over his head, and he outsourced his negotiations to everyone from the Biden team to the Islamic terror state of Qatar, with whom he’s done business and whose terrorist leaders he has repeatedly praised. Knowing nothing about the Middle East hasn’t given him a fresh perspective: it just made him an easy dupe for everyone who does.

It’s an honest admission. Witkoff’s defenders, who pretend that he’s a genius shaking up diplomacy by appeasing Islamic terrorist states, could at least try to be as honest as him.

What new solutions has Steve Witkoff come up with? The Obama ones. Negotiate with terrorists. Pretend they’re reasonable. Give them what they want. Act confused when it doesn’t work out.

Steve Witkoff, the real estate tycoon turned international negotiator, has become the subject of controversy with some conservatives attacking him and others rushing out to defend him.

“In a world left in chaos thanks to Joe Biden, Steve Witkoff is the diplomat America needs right now,” US Senator Jim Banks claimed this month.

Tucker Carlson hailed Witkoff as “the most effective American diplomat in a generation.”

But Witkoff, whatever his flaws, is far more honest than his PR men on X or Capitol Hill, and has never denied that he was just implementing the policies of the Biden administration.

Trump’s Negotiations With The Mullahs By Bruce Thornton Let’s hope this isn’t another Western fool’s errand.

https://www.frontpagemag.com/trumps-negotiations-with-the-mullahs/

Recently an important report about President Trump and Iran was drowned out by the weeping and wailing over the president’s Liberation Day increases on tariffs. According to Park MacDougald on The Scroll, Axios reported that the president is “seriously considering an Iranian proposal for indirect nuclear talks” . . . and “the administration is now exploring next steps in order to begin conversations and trust building with the Iranians.”

More troubling, MacDougald writes, “Phillip Smyth emphasized that the Iranians, despite holding an extraordinarily weak hand, are effectively offering the White House nothing: no direct talks, no negotiation over ballistic missiles or the regime’s support for its regional proxies, and nuclear negotiation only within the framework of the 2015 nuclear deal.”

We shouldn’t underestimate the president’s commitment to deterrence, or doubt his will to follow through on his pledge to prevent Iran from going nuclear. He has brought back “maximum pressure” sanctions on Iran, and deployed six long-range B2 stealth bombers to the joint UK-US military base on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean––the only bomber able to drop “bunker buster” MOPS, “Massive Ordnance Penetrators,” 30,000-pound, precision-guided bombs capable of penetrating Iran’s underground hardened nuclear production facilities.

Also, as Smyth points out, Iran is the weakest it has been since its 1980-88 war with Iraq. Its proxies in the region have been neutralized, its economy is on the brink of collapse, its currency is approaching Weimar Germany levels of inflation, and its people are boldly disgruntled and increasingly restless. Now may be the best opportunity to end Iran’s nuclear ambition to destroy, Israel, which it mocks as a “one-bomb state.” Nor should we assume that self-preservation from a threatened repayment in nuclear kind will restrain the mullahs.

Don’t Waste Your Time: Iran’s Mullahs Will Not Abandon Their Nuclear Program by Majid Rafizadeh

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/21546/iran-will-not-abandon-nuclear-program

Tehran has played this game before: Agree to talks. Make vague promises. Extract sanctions relief. Then quietly continue nuclear development under the radar. This formula has worked for more than two decades. Right now, the only reason Iran is talking is to stall, to promise just enough to prevent America from striking it — “We are almost there!” — to keep its regime and avoid seeing its uranium centrifuges and enrichment sites blasted to rubble. The regime does not want war — but it also cannot accept total nuclear disarmament.

The Islamic Republic has smoothly outmaneuvered every administration. It has accepted deals to avoid confrontation, then quietly violated them. With each round of negotiations, Iran gained what it needed — time, money, legitimacy — and gave away nothing it could not reverse.

Worse, Iranian officials have themselves confirmed what skeptics have long argued: that the regime’s nuclear program was always military in nature. Former parliamentary speaker Ali Motahhari openly admitted in an interview that the Islamic Republic’s nuclear activities were initially designed to build weapons, not generate electricity. That was not a slip of the tongue. It was a rare moment of honesty from a system built on lies.

[W]orse yet, [the regime] could announce one day that it already possesses several nuclear bombs — and that there is nothing anyone can do about it. Will the world then be forced to live with a nuclear-armed theocracy that sponsors terrorism, oppresses its people, and seeks to export its ideology across the region? That does not sound like a cheery future to accept.

The Islamic Republic has demonstrated that it cannot be trusted to negotiate in good faith. It has lied, manipulated and deceived at every turn. Hoping for a different outcome, unfortunately, is self-deceptive make-believe.

Negotiations only serve to give Iran what it wants: time and space to complete its nuclear project. Axios reported on April 10 that “sources said the Iranians think reaching a complex and highly technical nuclear deal in two months is unrealistic and they want to get more time on the clock to avoid an escalation.”

After watching what happened to Libya after it gave up its nuclear weapons program, and to Ukraine when it gave up its warheads. Iran’s regime could hardly have any intention of abandoning their quest for the bomb. Diplomacy will not stop them. Appeasement will not deter them. The only solution, sadly, seems to be force. If the US and Israel fail to act now, we will soon be facing a world where the Islamic Republic of Iran has crossed the nuclear threshold and commands its bombs. Then what?

Negotiations for Iran’s mullahs are simply a sign of strategic necessity. The regime needs breathing room — and, most importantly, it needs to preserve what it sees as its ultimate insurance policy: a nuclear arsenal.

The Trump administration is once again engaging with the Iranian regime, this time in Oman, to encourage it to end its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs the way Libya’s late leader Muammar Ghaddafi did. As US President Donald J. Trump transparently put it: “I would love to make a deal with them without bombing them.”

The Dos and Don’s of Negotiating with Iran By Kenneth R. Timmerman

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2025/04/the_do_s_and_don_ts_of_negotiating_with_iran.html

Shortly after then-Secretary of State John Kerry concluded talks with his Iranian counterpart that led to the 2015 nuclear agreement, the wizards at Google had already delivered judgment. When I typed in the phrase, “how not to buy a carpet” at Google images, the first result was a photo of the two foreign ministers and their aides, facing each other across the negotiating table in Lausanne.

The ever-smiling Mohammad Javad Zarif told Kerry three times they had a deal, but that he needed to go back to Tehran to run it by the “Supreme Leader.” And three times he came back, demanding more.

Donald Trump called the deal the United States finally signed, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), “the worst deal ever” and withdrew the United States from it in 2018. He was right.

The President’s Middle East special envoy, Steve Witcoff, recently admitted that he got “duped” by Hamas during negotiations in Qatar with Hamas-appointed Arab mediators.

Having worked in the Middle East as a war correspondent and investigative reporter for forty years, let me say it straight: if the Arabs managed to dupe Mr. Witcoff, the Iranians are going to take him to the cleaners.

So here are a few “do’s and dont’s” for Witcoff when he travels to Oman this weekend.

Will Iran Seize Its Only Chance with President Trump? Not agreeing to serious talks with the US to end its nuclear weapons program could prove disastrous for Iran. By Fred Fleitz

https://amgreatness.com/2025/04/11/will-iran-seize-its-only-chance-with-president-trump/

President Trump stunned the world this week when he announced that the U.S. would hold direct talks with Iran on its nuclear weapons program this weekend. The president has given Iran two months to negotiate a new agreement to end its nuclear program and said at the press conference, “I think if the talks aren’t successful with Iran… Iran is going to be in great danger, and I hate to say it.”

The talks are scheduled to take place on Saturday in Oman. The U.S. will reportedly be represented by Middle East Special Envoy Steve Witkoff. Iran’s chief negotiator reportedly will be Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

Trump said in response to a reporter’s question about whether he would use military force if Iran refused to agree to a nuclear deal, “If it requires military, we’re going to have military.” The President later added that Israel would “be the leader” of a military strike on Iran if nuclear talks fail.

After Trump’s announcement, however, Iranian officials indicated their nation might not engage in serious negotiations when they said Iran would only agree to indirect talks with the U.S. mediated by Oman. Foreign Minister Araghchi added that his government primarily wanted the talks to rule out the use of U.S. military force against Iran.

An administration source told me Iran’s resistance to direct and meaningful talks to end its nuclear weapons program might mean the talks will not take place, at least this weekend. This could lead to Iran suffering severe repercussions from the U.S. and possibly Israel by mid-year.

Why Trump Believes Addressing Threats from Iran Is Urgent

President Trump has moved fast to address threats from Iran because they surged to a dangerous level—especially concerning its nuclear weapons program—due to the Biden administration’s inept Iran policies that amounted to appeasement.

There Is No Private Sector in China: The US Needs Officially to Restrict Cooperation with China by Anna Mahjar Barducci

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/21538/china-private-sector

A larger problem, apart from tariffs, is that China does not have a private sector.

The Chinese Communist Party is the founding and only ruling party of the People’s Republic of China. Hence, all Chinese companies directly support the CCP’s priorities and ambitions to replace the United States as the world’s leading superpower. This plan obviously has little that might be good for the US, its national security, or its interests abroad.

China has openly been pursuing a policy of threatening to take over pro-Western neighbors such as Taiwan, the Philippines, South Korea, the Solomon Islands, India and Japan. In addition, Chinese warships have reportedly been invading Australian airspace and sailing alarmingly close to Australia. The CCP has also recently been trying to make it a “new normal” to have around Taiwan drills that at any time could turn into combat.

It has become increasingly clear that China’s plan to take over Taiwan and other neighbors is a question not of “if” but “when.” It is therefore crucial to understand that there is no private sector in China.

In the 14th Five Year Plan, the CCP identified the following industries as critical to China’s economic development: Artificial intelligence, semiconductors, robotic technology and biotechnology, to name a few.

Investing in China’s “private sector” underwrites China’s expansionist ambitions in Asia and enables it to continue claiming ownership of the South and East China Seas, as well as everything near it, to control world trade.

Investing in China’s “private sector” — effectively the same as its military — destroys the West’s interests, weakens its allies and fast-tracks the CCP in reaching its goals of seizing Taiwan and other neighbors, and possibly triggering a war with the United States. Investing in China’s “private sector” underwrites China’s expansionist ambitions in Asia and enables it to continue claiming ownership of the South and East China Seas, as well as everything near it, to control world trade.

US President Donald J. Trump’s current trade stand-off with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has already induced some Chinese companies, such as Shein, BYD, TikTok and Temu’s parent company PDD Holdings to move away from China and have induced some Western companies – including Apple, Dell, Hasbro, Microsoft, Hewlett Packard, Stanley Black and Decker, Foxconn, Nintendo, BYD Auto, TSMC, Intel, Mazda, Google and Samsung also to move away or diversify.

Trump Delivers Deadly ‘Either/Or’ to Houthi Terrorists Catherine Salgado

https://pjmedia.com/catherinesalgado/2025/03/31/trump-delivers-deadly-eitheror-to-houthi-terrorists-n4938466

President Donald Trump, after a series of successful strikes against Houthi jihadis, is offering the Houthis a choice between ceasing their terror operations or being destroyed.

The Houthi jihadis have been attacking shipping in the key Red Sea passage, damaging trade for America, Israel, and other nations, since before Trump took office. But now Trump, unlike Joe Biden, is tired of Islamic terrorists pushing America around. So the president just warned the Houthis and their Iranian sponsors: “the real pain is yet to come.”

On his Truth Social platform Monday, Donald Trump posted in his usual confident style, “The Iran-backed Houthi Terrorists have been decimated by the relentless strikes over the past two weeks. Many of their Fighters and Leaders are no longer with us. We hit them every day and night — Harder and harder. Their capabilities that threaten Shipping and the Region are rapidly being destroyed.”

Nor will the strikes cease until the Houthis stop attacking U.S. shipping in the area, Trump added. “Our attacks will continue until they are no longer a threat to Freedom of Navigation. The choice for the Houthis is clear: Stop shooting at U.S. ships, and we will stop shooting at you. Otherwise, we have only just begun, and the real pain is yet to come, for both the Houthis and their sponsors in Iran,” the president ended threateningly.

The Trump foreign-policy team’s real problem The Yemen attack leak was a bad mistake. But a clueless Steve Witkoff’s embrace of Qatar and rationalization of Hamas betray the president’s realist agenda. Jonathan Tobin

https://www.jns.org/the-trump-foreign-policy-teams-real-problem/?utm_campaign=

It was the gaffe that critics of the Trump administration have been praying for. However it happened, the inclusion of Atlantic  editor Jeffrey Goldberg in a group chat on the Signal App among the administration’s leading defense policymakers about an impending attack on the Houthis in Yemen, was a gob-smacking blunder of epic proportions.

It not only embarrassed participants in the conversion, like Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, National Security Advisor Michael Waltz and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard. It called into question the competence of President Donald Trump’s national-security team and the process by which it communicates and shares information at the highest level.

If, as appears to be the case, it was Waltz’s office that  was responsible for connecting Goldberg to the chat, it’s something he’ll never entirely live down, even if Trump is prepared to forgive him.

But as much as Goldberg’s unwitting scoop deserved the headlines and the endless discussions it generated, it was actually not the most troubling news event of the week for Trump’s national-security team.

The worst administration blunder didn’t involve the group chat about Yemen or any other issue that the president’s critics are obsessed with. Instead, it was the comments of Steve Witkoff, his special envoy to the Middle East, on “The Tucker Carlson Show” podcast. The interview made clear that the person Trump has tasked with conducting negotiations about the war in Gaza and the release of the hostages taken on Oct. 7, 2023, is utterly clueless about malign actors like Qatar, Iran and its terrorist proxies.

The Houthi group-chat leak reveals some truly unserious people The Trump administration has too many chuckleheads and too few people of substance. Tim Black

It is a security cock-up of monumental proportions.

We now know that a dozen senior Trump administration officials, including national-security adviser Michael Waltz, vice-president JD Vance and defence secretary Pete Hegseth, were using Signal, a commercial messaging service, to discuss the plan to launch airstrikes on Yemen’s Houthi rebels earlier this month. This in itself ought to set alarm bells ringing. To talk about highly sensitive, top-secret military plans, officials are required to use approved government equipment in a compartmented information facility, not a slightly flashier form of WhatsApp. For obvious reasons.

The reason we know about any of this is even more worrying. Earlier this month, Waltz – the guy charged with maintaining national security, no less – accidentally invited Jeffrey Goldberg, the editor-in-chief of the Trump-hating Atlantic, into this ‘Houthi PC small group’. It beggars belief. Waltz effectively gave a journalist diametrically opposed to the current administration a full view of the Trump White House’s military planning. Goldberg saw all the operational details of the then forthcoming strikes on Yemen. He saw which weapons were to be deployed, the identity of the targets and the sequencing of the attacks. He saw information that could have easily been used to harm US military and intelligence personnel in the Middle East. That it wasn’t is solely down to the fact that Goldberg has been careful about when and how he revealed what had happened, taking special care to withhold and redact key details.

So incredible was this security lapse that Goldberg didn’t believe it at first. He thought he was being entrapped. It was only when the US actually carried out the airstrikes on the Houthis on the day and time that had been discussed in the group that Goldberg finally accepted it was real. Waltz had genuinely given him a front-row seat into the innermost sanctum of the Trump administration. ‘Everyone in the White House can agree on one thing: Mike Waltz is a fucking idiot’, a source told Politico on Tuesday. They’re not wrong.

Of course this is not the first time US officials have used their own private emails or messaging apps to talk policy and share plans. As Goldberg himself notes, national-security officials do communicate on messaging apps like Signal, although they usually confine their chats to routine work matters, rather than top-secret plans to bomb militias in the Middle East.

It’s also a little rich watching Democrats and their media cheerleaders gorging themselves on this security fiasco. They really shouldn’t be chucking rocks, given the dilapidated state of their own glass house. In 2016, it emerged that state department official Jake Sullivan, later the national security adviser to Joe Biden, had been sending messages to Hillary Clinton’s infamous private email account, brimful with highly classified information.

Still, the lack of seriousness on show here is something to behold. These people occupy the most senior offices of state in America. Yet here they were chatting away about launching lethal airstrikes in Yemen on a messaging app, as if they were arranging a night out.

Vice-president Vance complained about ‘bailing Europe out again’, on the grounds that the Red Sea shipping route menaced by the Houthis is used more by European freight than American. To be fair, this is nothing Vance wouldn’t say to European leaders’ faces. But it does capture something of the incoherence of American First foreign policy – a nation at once determined to bend the world to its interests, while being reluctant to protect a shipping lane used by US tankers. The response of defence secretary Hegseth is even more telling for its caps-locked shrillness: ‘I share your loathing of European free-loading. It’s PATHETIC.’