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FOREIGN POLICY

Effective Ways to Support the Iranian Protests by Hamid Bahrami

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18985/support-iran-protests

T]he Biden administration, even during the Iranian regime’s current brutal crackdown on its own citizens, and the US Special Envoy for Iran, Robert Malley, are still seeking to revive the lethal “nuclear deal” — allowing the regime to enrich uranium to acquire an arsenal of nuclear weapons and the missiles to deliver them — and reassuring the mullahs that the US has no “policy of regime change.”

While the West is unwilling to hold Iran’s regime to account, the IRGC, officially designated a Foreign Terrorist Organization by the US Department of State, does its best to reinstate repression, sparking grave concerns about further bloodshed in Iran and abroad. If that is how Iran treats its own citizens, why would anyone expect it to treat others any better?

Sadly, the US and its allies are still using every diplomatic and political resource to revive the lethal nuclear deal, which would permit the Iranian regime to enrich uranium for an arsenal of nuclear bombs and the missiles to deliver it in just a few years — all to safeguard the West’s economic interests and energy supply, which the US already has in abundance.

President Joe Biden and his foreign policy team’s failure in Afghanistan, and their preliminary message to Russian President Vladimir Putin that a “minor incursion” would be acceptable, undermined any credible deterrence to Putin to discourage him from invading Ukraine. Now, the policies of the Biden administration seem to be repeating similar disasters in Iran and Taiwan.

To support the Iranian people, the White House should announce that the Iran nuclear deal will not be revived and end the negotiations – which are not even being conducted by the US, but by Russia – which has most gallantly offered to hold Iran’s “excess” enriched uranium, presumably for future use.

Biden also should replace Malley with someone who understands the Iranian regime’s malevolence not only to its own people, but to other countries as well, both in the Middle East and throughout Latin America.

Canada needs to designate the IRGC as a terrorist organization, as the US did in 2019…

[T]he new government of [British] Prime Minister Liz Truss would do well to support the peaceful protests in Iran and impose punitive measures on the Iranian regime’s military and security forces.

Historically, political confusion has led to inadequate responses to international crises, and with disastrous consequences. Today, the West’s ties to Iran are overshadowed by the widespread anti-regime protests across the country. Now, as it looks as if the dust does not intend to settle, and it seems clear that the conflict inside Iran will only deepen.

Effective Ways to Support the Iranian Protests by Hamid Bahram

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18985/support-iran-protests

[T]he Biden administration, even during the Iranian regime’s current brutal crackdown on its own citizens, and the US Special Envoy for Iran, Robert Malley, are still seeking to revive the lethal “nuclear deal” — allowing the regime to enrich uranium to acquire an arsenal of nuclear weapons and the missiles to deliver them — and reassuring the mullahs that the US has no “policy of regime change.”

While the West is unwilling to hold Iran’s regime to account, the IRGC, officially designated a Foreign Terrorist Organization by the US Department of State, does its best to reinstate repression, sparking grave concerns about further bloodshed in Iran and abroad. If that is how Iran treats its own citizens, why would anyone expect it to treat others any better?

Sadly, the US and its allies are still using every diplomatic and political resource to revive the lethal nuclear deal, which would permit the Iranian regime to enrich uranium for an arsenal of nuclear bombs and the missiles to deliver it in just a few years — all to safeguard the West’s economic interests and energy supply, which the US already has in abundance.

President Joe Biden and his foreign policy team’s failure in Afghanistan, and their preliminary message to Russian President Vladimir Putin that a “minor incursion” would be acceptable, undermined any credible deterrence to Putin to discourage him from invading Ukraine. Now, the policies of the Biden administration seem to be repeating similar disasters in Iran and Taiwan.

To support the Iranian people, the White House should announce that the Iran nuclear deal will not be revived and end the negotiations – which are not even being conducted by the US, but by Russia – which has most gallantly offered to hold Iran’s “excess” enriched uranium, presumably for future use.

Biden also should replace Malley with someone who understands the Iranian regime’s malevolence not only to its own people, but to other countries as well, both in the Middle East and throughout Latin America.

Canada needs to designate the IRGC as a terrorist organization, as the US did in 2019…

[T]he new government of [British] Prime Minister Liz Truss would do well to support the peaceful protests in Iran and impose punitive measures on the Iranian regime’s military and security forces.

Historically, political confusion has led to inadequate responses to international crises, and with disastrous consequences. Today, the West’s ties to Iran are overshadowed by the widespread anti-regime protests across the country. Now, as it looks as if the dust does not intend to settle, and it seems clear that the conflict inside Iran will only deepen.

Ukraine and the Malevolent Legacy of the Obama-Biden Administration The United States is shackled by a near decade of Russian reset and the aggression it invited on By Victor Davis Hanson

https://amgreatness.com/2022/10/09/ukraine-and-the-malevolent-legacy-of-the-obama-biden-administration/

During the current Ukrainian war, the media has created a mythology that the Left was tough on Vladimir Putin’s Russia. And thus, now it simply continues its hard-nosed efforts in Ukraine. 

But nothing could be further from the truth. Aside from Biden’s original panic of evacuating American diplomatic personnel from Kyiv, offering a ride out of Ukraine for the Zelenskyy government that would have effectively collapsed his nation’s resistance, and hesitation in selling Ukraine offensive weapons, there is also a prior legacy that had done a great deal of harm.

Indeed, many of America’s current difficulties in Ukraine originate from the Obama-Biden Administration’s former disastrous policies toward Russia birthed between 2009-2016. 

Remembering the Reset Disaster

Remember the initial premise of Russian “Reset”—the idea and the term were first used by Vice President Joe Biden (“It’s time to press the reset button”)—was based on the myth that the “cowboy” George W. Bush had been too tough on Putin after the 2008 Russo-Georgian War. To Biden and Obama, Bush had unduly sanctioned Vladimir Putin following his opportunistic absorption of South Ossetia in 2008 and attack on Georgia. And thus, the Russian dictator would easily then be wowed by Obama’s legendary charisma and charm from needless hostility to accommodation.

Accordingly, the reformist hope-and-change Obama Administration would rebuild a friendly relationship with Russia. Thereby they would win strategic help from Russia with Obama’s new ambitious agendas for Iran and Syria in remaking a more “equitable” Middle East. Translated that meant “balancing” the region. Thus, by weakening our former overdog allies in the Gulf and Israel while empowering our former underdog terrorist-sponsoring enemies in Tehran and Damascus, Obama sought to create strategic tension.

Biden Puts Rogue Regimes Ahead of American Families The outcome will be a disaster. by Erick Erickson

https://www.frontpagemag.com/biden-puts-rogue-regimes-ahead-of-american-families/

President Joe Biden is draining the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to keep gas prices low solely because he wants to mitigate voter wrath against the Democrats. This comes as OPEC cuts back production by 2 million barrels a day. That will drive up costs, drive up the repurchase cost for the petroleum reserve and increase our national debt, which has now shot above $31 trillion with interest rates rising and debt service payments rising.

Biden has created this mess in large part because he is subservient to rogue regimes and puts their needs ahead of Americans. The outcome will be an emboldened China and a national security headache for the United States.

One of the reasons OPEC is going to cut production is because the majority of the Arab nations involved in OPEC are furious with Biden trying to cut a deal with Iran. Biden stopped considering the Houthi terrorists, funded by Iran, to be terrorists, and the Houthi then escalated attacks on the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.

In advancing Iran’s interests at the peace table, Biden risks further destabilization in the Middle East in large part because no one really believes Iran will stop until it has a nuclear weapon. Iran is no friend of most of its Middle Eastern neighbors and wants to be the dominant power in the Middle East over and against Saudi Arabia. This has alienated him from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and others as China and Russia seek to ingratiate themselves with our longtime allies.

All the President’s Disconnects The best that can be said about him is that he’s consistently wrong. by Frank Schell

https://spectator.org/all-the-presidents-disconnects/

“I think he has been wrong on nearly every major foreign policy and national security issue over the past four decades,” former Defense Secretary Robert Gates states regarding then Vice President Joe Biden in his book Duty: Memoirs of a Secretary at War released in 2014.

Nothing much has changed since this statement of Robert Gates, who served as Director of Central Intelligence under President George H.W. Bush, and later as Secretary of Defense under both presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama.

Cancellation of the Keystone Pipeline in June of last year has positioned the U.S. from a net exporter of energy to tapping the caverns of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

The mullahs of Iran have recently taken to brutal suppression of what began as women protesting, enraged by the death of Mahsa Amini for violating hijab rules. In a strategic disconnect, President Biden has missed an opportunity to address the Iranian people forcefully, to express support for their desire for human rights and regime change. Instead, the White House is seeking another agreement to limit Iran’s nuclear aspirations. To believe that adventurist Iran will not cheat and continue to develop enriched fissile material is a willing suspension of disbelief, to use the words of Samuel Taylor Coleridge.

U.S. Presidents Refuse to Protect the U.S. from North Korea’s Nukes by Gordon G. Chang

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18968/us-presidents-refuse-to-protect-the-us-from-north

The U.S. has the power to stop North Korean missile tests but has chosen not to do so. This is true not only of the Biden administration but also its predecessors. The U.S. has continually decided to adopt feeble options.

Chinese banks have been laundering the North’s proceeds of criminal and prohibited activity for decades. The Trump administration in June 2017 designated, pursuant to Section 311 of the USA PATRIOT Act, China’s Bank of Dandong to be of “primary money laundering concern.” The designation meant the bank could no longer clear dollar transactions through the U.S. banking system.

If the designation was meant as a signal, Beijing ignored it. And the Chinese had assessed the situation correctly. Trump’s administration in 2018 decided not to enforce money-laundering laws against two of the “Big Four” Chinese banks, Agricultural Bank of China and China Construction Bank, which were handling suspicious transactions involving North Korea. Such a designation would have put these banks out of business everywhere outside China, and Beijing, as a practical matter, would have had to stop money-laundering for North Korea.

As a result of inaction, President Trump gave Chinese institutions free passes to violate American statutes. The administration’s decision, an abrogation of its responsibilities to uphold the law, was deeply prejudicial to its efforts to disarm the Kim regime.

The Biden administration has continued Trump’s lax posture.

The administration has the goods on the North Koreans and the Chinese but has continually failed to act. “This failure is a choice. The money Kim Jong Un obtains by fraud, computer hacking, and ransomware and which he uses to build bombs to threaten us is being laundered through our banks. We’re giving Xi Jinping and Kim de facto immunity to keep right on doing it.” — Joshua Stanton, sanctions expert, to Gatestone Institute, October, 2022

North Korea’s accelerated testing of missiles is a reminder that Kim Jong Un is quickly developing the power to destroy American cities. Perhaps the only things his technicians cannot do is miniaturize a nuclear device and shield it from heat upon reentry to the atmosphere. These are, however, capabilities his military, perhaps with China’s help, will develop soon.

Americans might wonder how one of the most destitute regimes on earth can build weapons capable of killing most every American. They may also wonder why Washington has done almost nothing to stop the North Koreans from selling their weapons to Iran, among others.

How the US failed to stop OPEC from cutting oil production The administration’s foreign policy is seen as weak and feckless: John Pietro

https://spectatorworld.com/topic/how-biden-failed-to-stop-opec-from-cutting-oil-production/

Near the top of President Biden’s to-do list for the past few months has been to keep gas prices down. On Wednesday, this was dealt a likely fatal blow by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which, led by Saudi Arabia, agreed to cut its overall production by two million barrels per day.

In actuality, the cut will mean a reduction of more like one million barrels per day if it’s taken into account that OPEC has been underproducing compared to its previously stated production goals. Still, this is a significant cut, and the effects on oil markets are already being felt.

The Biden administration has been scrounging around for ways to get more oil onto the market and lower prices, from releasing tens of millions of barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to chastising the oil producers themselves. In July, Biden went to Saudi Arabia in an attempt to smooth over America’s rocky relationship with Riyadh and get the Saudis to pump more oil (it seems neither succeeded).

Most egregiously, though, the administration is contemplating offering Venezuela sanctions relief as part of a deal to restart talks with the local opposition and — the real reason — to allow Chevron to produce oil in the country again. This is particularly troubling given that the regime in Caracas has no intention of giving up power and restarting “talks” is a useless gesture. Such a deal would project weakness at a time when projecting strength should be a top priority, as Russia’s war in Ukraine drags on and China threatens Taiwan.

Thanks to the Biden Administration, Russia and Iran Are Closer than Ever by Majid Rafizadeh

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18963/russia-iran-alliance

“I am absolutely sincere in this regard when I say that Iran got much more than it could expect [from the Biden administration]….. [The Iranian leaders] are fighting for [their] national interest like lions. They fight for every comma, every word, and as a rule, quite successfully.” — Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia’s chief negotiator for the US in the nuclear talks, The New York Post, March 12, 2022.

Russia, of course, is freely trading with Iran, in spite of sanctions against both countries.

Russia and the ruling mullahs of Iran are also ratcheting up their military cooperation in plain sight. The Iranian regime continues to provide Russia with military drones, which have inflicted significant damage on Ukraine — the first time Iranian weapons have been deployed on European soil….

“[N]ow we’re going to pay them hundreds of billions of dollars, and they’re going to have nuclear weapons within a short period of time. Honestly, they can’t be stupid; they must hate our country….” — Former President Donald J. Trump, iranintl.com September 4, 2022.

Thanks to the Biden administration’s weak, or absent, leadership, Russia and the regime of Iran’s mullahs have become closer, more emboldened and more empowered than ever.

The two bedfellows, the authoritarian regimes of Russia and Iran, are, thanks to the Biden administration, running the Iran nuclear talks, while the US waits out in the hall. Russia’s chief negotiator, Mikhail Ulyanov, earlier this year praised his Iranian “colleagues”:

“I am absolutely sincere in this regard when I say that Iran got much more than it could expect [from the Biden administration]. Our Chinese friends were also very efficient and useful as co-negotiators.”

You cannot stand with Iran’s women while seeking a deal with Tehran: Jonathan Tobin

https://www.jns.org/you-cannot-stand-with-irans-women-while-seeking-a-deal-with-tehran/

The protests against the Islamist regime in Iran show that the real “war on women” is being waged by the mullahs in Tehran, not American conservatives, says JNS editor-in-chief Jonathan Tobin. According to Tobin, the abuse of women by the theocratic government’s “morality police” is bringing attention to both the brutal nature of its rule as well as the fact that American efforts to appease and enrich Iran via a new and even weaker nuclear deal is helping to perpetuate these outrages. Tobin discusses these issues in the latest episode of “Top Story.”

Appeasing the ayatollahs

In his view, the big mistake the Biden administration is making is its attempt to treat the question of human rights in Iran as separate from its efforts—currently on hold until perhaps after the midterm elections—to strike a nuclear pact with the ayatollahs. Instead of merely paying lip service to the courageous women protesting in Iran, the United States must renounce its nuclear delusions about pursuing another dangerous deal with the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism, he says.

Tobin is joined by Foundation for Defense of Democracies senior fellow Behnam Ben-Taleblu, who explains that while the Biden administration deserves credit for supporting Iranians protesting against their government instead of ignoring them as the Obama administration did, that’s a low bar by which to judge it. What the United States needs to understand, he says, is that the size and reach of these protests show that this is about more than the compulsory wearing of hijabs for women, and speaks to the general dissatisfaction of the Iranian people.

The Question on Putin’s Mind: Would We Risk New York to Keep Odessa Free? Biden’s efforts to deter him have so far had little success. Now the world’s future may hinge on them. By Walter Russell Mead

https://www.wsj.com/articles/would-we-risk-new-york-to-keep-odessa-free-putin-biden-tactical-nuke-blackmail-deterrence-nato-diplomacy-11665068559?mod=opinion_lead_pos9

‘A nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought,” President Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a joint statement after their summit in June 2021. But Mr. Putin doesn’t always tell the truth.

The reality is that as Mr. Putin’s failing military skedaddles east across occupied Ukraine, nuclear weapons look more attractive. That is not so much because a tactical nuclear strike would be effective against widely scattered Ukrainian forces in the field. It is more that Mr. Putin hopes the political shock waves set off by nuclear explosions in Europe would shatter the West’s resolve to support Ukraine. Is Germany willing to lose Berlin to save Kyiv? Are Americans ready to risk New York to keep Odessa free? These are the questions Mr. Putin is asking himself.

The future of the world may depend on his answers. Meanwhile, the Biden administration faces a terrible dilemma. To yield to Mr. Putin’s nuclear blackmail would be a cowardly act of appeasement from which Neville Chamberlain would recoil—and which would open the door to more nuclear blackmail. Yet to lead the Western alliance into an open-ended nuclear confrontation with Russia is to risk the most catastrophic of wars.

To avoid these unacceptable alternatives, the Biden administration must deter Mr. Putin from using nuclear weapons in the Ukraine conflict even as it continues to support Ukraine in its battle to drive the invaders back.

Deterrence is more complicated than it looks, and the Biden administration’s efforts to deter Russia have had little success. In February, Mr. Putin blew past the Biden administration’s barrage of threats and diplomacy to launch the war in Ukraine.

Not deterring Russian aggression was one of the costliest failures in recent American foreign policy. But it isn’t clear that the Biden administration understands what went wrong—and how similar mistakes might be undercutting its diplomatic efforts today.