RUTHFULLY YOURS

https://thespectator.com/topic/what-to-do-about-iran/

China is surely America’s most dangerous threat over the medium term, but Iran is surely the most dangerous right now. The Islamic Republic would be even more dangerous if the Israelis had not decimated the Mullah’s deadly “ring of fire,” the proxy forces across the Middle East funded, armed, trained, and directed by Tehran. But removing these proxies (all except the Houthis in Yemen) does not remove Iran’s nuclear threat. That threat now faces the Trump administration and Netanyahu’s coalition in Israel, leaving only difficult choices.

To understand the current problems, we need to grasp a series of fundamental issues surrounding Iran’s nuclear program.

• What are Iran’s objectives?

• Why might nuclear deterrence, which has worked against other countries, not work against Iran?

• How has the United States responded so far?

• What was Trump’s Iran policy in his first term?

• How did Biden’s policy differ, and what were the consequences?

• What is the minimal acceptable solution for the Trump administration and Israel, as publicly stated?

• What is Iran’s negotiating strategy with the United States?

• How will the Trump administration respond if it is clear that Iran is simply delaying and will not meet America’s minimum requirements to dismantle its nuclear program?

• If Trump refuses to act militarily, will Israel make the dangerous decision to go it alone?

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/21634/trump-iran-nuclear-weapons

There can be no reasonable doubt that Iran’s mullahs are determined to obtain nuclear weapons, despite their assurances to the contrary. Nor can Israel, which is the intended target of an Iranian bomb, be expected to rely on deterrence or containment. Iran must be prevented from achieving their dangerous goal.

[U]nless your deal includes the complete and total destruction of all Iranian nuclear facilities, there will be no guarantee that its scientists could not surreptitiously use civilian nuclear infrastructure to build military weaponry. The only deal that would prevent this catastrophe would be one modeled on the agreement made with Libya made back in 2003. That deal completely dismantled Libya’s nuclear facilities and made it impossible for them to weaponize nuclear energy infrastructure. Anything short of that will create an unacceptable risk.

We urge you to use your incredible negotiating skills to achieve the goal that you have set out: namely a 100% certainty that Iran will never get a nuclear bomb.

Dear Mr. President,

You are about to make a decision for which you will be remembered by history. Your legacy will either be as a world leader who saved, or failed to save, many lives. The decision concerns Iran’s intention to develop a nuclear arsenal. There can be no reasonable doubt that Iran’s mullahs are determined to obtain nuclear weapons, despite their assurances to the contrary. Nor can Israel, which is the intended target of an Iranian bomb, be expected to rely on deterrence or containment. Iran must be prevented from achieving their dangerous goal.

Obviously it would be better if the mullahs could be stopped by negotiation rather than military action. Previous negotiations resulted in a terrible deal under President Barack Obama. You yourself understood that under the Obama deal, Iran would almost certainly have obtained a nuclear arsenal, and so you quite correctly withdrew from the agreement. Now there are rumors that your administration is working on a “better” deal – longer and stronger. But unless your deal includes the complete and total destruction of all Iranian nuclear facilities, there will be no guarantee that its scientists could not surreptitiously use civilian nuclear infrastructure to build military weaponry. The only deal that would prevent this catastrophe would be one modeled on the agreement made with Libya made back in 2003. That deal completely dismantled Libya’s nuclear facilities and made it impossible for them to weaponize nuclear energy infrastructure. Anything short of that will create an unacceptable risk.

We urge you to use your incredible negotiating skills to achieve the goal that you have set out: namely a 100% certainty that Iran will never get a nuclear bomb. You should give the mullahs a short period of time to dismantle and destroy, subject to American inspection, their entire nuclear program. If they refuse or fail to do so, the military option should be deployed.

Nearly a century ago, the British and French governments faced a similar decision with Germany, and they failed, costing tens of millions of lives.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/21631/trump-qatar-flying-palace

[Trump’s] soft approach, however, to the Saudi Crown Prince — that he was welcome to join the Abraham Accords “in your own time” — could easily be a “never”….

“This is Qatar’s classic game: support the Islamist terrorists and then present itself as a mediator, liaison, and even peacemaker – the arsonist playing firefighter. As in Afghanistan, as in Egypt in 2010, and as in every Muslim country.” — Yigal Carmon, a former Israeli intelligence officer and founder and president of the Middle East Media and Research Institute (MEMRI), May 15, 2025.

“Mr. Trump revealed the essential philosophy behind his foreign-policy decisions: He hates war and loves gold. That’s it. To hear it fully, to get near its meaning and debate its sufficiency, you had to step over so much broken glass. ‘Flying Palace’ Violates Emoluments Clause. Sons Enjoy Steep Profits From Trump Presidency.” — Peggy Noonan, Wall Street Journal, May 15, 2025.

If Trump is really serious about achieving his goal of bringing peace to Gaza, then his first course of action should be to persuade the Qataris to end their funding of Hamas, which has allowed it to maintain its murderous war against Israel. Trump should also once again demand that Qatar’s client, Hamas, release all remaining hostages by the end of the week.

“The President is offering a foreign-policy realism built on commerce, but shorn of American idealism.” — Wall Street Journal Editorial Board, May 16, 2025.

Also, what precedent is being set? Would the first gesture toward all future administrations be to bestow lavish tributes on the president and his family members to gain preferential treatment from the US?

Trump’s political rivals may well be hoping that their chance has finally come to impeach him again — this time with $400 million dollars’ worth of evidence. “Sorry,” the New York Post noted, “this ‘gift’ is far from free; Qatar will surely expect something in return.”

Trump would be well-advised to reconsider their gift of a luxury jet and reject this highly questionable offer.

If US President Donald Trump is really serious about bringing peace to the Middle East, then he should rethink again accepting the gift of a luxury $400 million aircraft from the rulers of Qatar. The country is renowned for its continuing support for Islamist terror groups, for continuing to fan the flames that would reignite the fundamentalist Arab Spring, for anti-US terrorist activity and for attacks on the US.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/21627/iran-using-north-korea-playbook

Iran appears to be using diplomacy to stall, deceive and advance its nuclear capabilities behind closed doors, while securing financial and geopolitical concessions from the West.

The disturbing part is not that Iran’s mullahs are following their usual tactics. The horror is that American officials and Western leaders appear to be falling for this shell-game all over again.

The problem with enriching hostile regimes to “buy quiet” is that this is the money they use to build nuclear weapons with which to attack us.

An additional problem, unfortunately, is that the Iranian regime has a well-documented history of lying.

No deal that permits any level of enrichment or allows Iran to keep its centrifuges intact will prevent Iran from building nuclear weapons.

We are trying to “deal” with theocrats who believe it is their divine duty to destroy Israel and America, and take over the oil-rich states in the Persian Gulf.

What makes the current situation even more exasperating is that despite decades of talks, deals and diplomatic theater with North Korea, Russia, China and Iran, we have watched them exploit Western weakness and lack of resolve time and again right under our noses. Yet, like Charlie Brown and the football, the West insists on accepting the same failed, bogus guarantees. We do not need another Swiss-cheese agreement filled with loopholes. We do not need photo-ops and press conferences proclaiming bogus triumphs.

As the United States continues negotiations with Iran to prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons, if it does not already have them, it has become clear that the Islamic Republic’s regime is not pursuing these talks in good faith.

Far from viewing negotiations as a means toward a peaceful resolution, the Iranian regime appears to see them as a tool that has proven successful before, not only for itself but also for its authoritarian ally, North Korea.

Iran appears to be using diplomacy to stall, deceive and advance its nuclear capabilities behind closed doors, while securing financial and geopolitical concessions from the West.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/21626/china-win-tariff-war

[T]he arrangement is a win for China.

The main barrier to American goods in China, however, is not Chinese tariffs but China’s many non-tariff barriers, which are untouched by the new deal. Therefore, the tariff rollbacks benefit Chinese exporters far more than America’s.

The Chinese promise is unlikely to be worth anything. The only way Xi Jinping can honor his pledge is to give up most elements of communism because non-tariff barriers, predatory trade practices, and even theft are inherent in that system.

Trump is still hoping for robust relations with the Communist Party, but unfortunately that is not possible.

Xi cannot now admit that China needs the United States, and he certainly cannot be seen as giving in to American coercion. In fact, the Chinese regime since the tariff announcement has been crowing about its win over Trump.

On May 12th, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, speaking to CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” urged a “decoupling for strategic necessities.”

Yes. And “a complete decoupling,” which as Trump tweeted in 2020 would remain “a policy option,” would be even better. Why should Americans shovel any cash to Communist Party’s coffers?

On May 12, President Donald Trump announced a “total reset with China.”

“The best part of the deal,” he said, was that “China agreed to open itself up to American business.” Beijing, Trump proclaimed, will “suspend and remove all of its non-monetary barriers.”

In the meantime, both the U.S. and China agreed to drop tariffs by 115 percentage points. The general American tariff rate on China’s goods is now 30%. The general Chinese rate is 10%. Both reductions will be in effect for 90 days.

China also agreed to reverse “all the non-tariff countermeasures taken against the United States since April 2, 2025.”

American tariffs in place before April 2, such as the Section 232 and Section 301 levies, remain in effect.

https://amgreatness.com/2025/05/16/trump-unveils-america-first-national-security-2-0-during-visit-to-the-arabian-gulf/

President Trump’s trip this week to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) was a great success for many reasons. The trip was also historic due to a speech he gave in Saudi Arabia outlining his America First foreign policy, which could transform global security.

In this speech, delivered in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 13, Trump unveiled his second-term approach to foreign policy that might be called “America First National Security 2.0.”

Most of Trump’s America First approach to U.S. foreign affairs is well known. He has called for putting the interests of our country and the American people first in national security policies. Trump wants a strong military but has pledged to use military force prudently to keep our country out of new and unnecessary wars. He has condemned bad treaties favored by the foreign policy establishment, like the Paris Climate Accord, that will have no effect on the global climate but will do serious damage to the American economy.

In his Riyadh speech, President Trump doubled down on his previous America First national security policies with a revolutionary plan to promote stability and peace through economic prosperity in the Middle East and around the world. Deputy opinion editor of Newsweek Batya Ungar-Sargon explained the significance of this speech in a May 13 tweet.

“Anyone hoping to understand President Trump’s foreign policy should watch his whole speech, probably the most momentous foreign policy address of my lifetime. Trump is building a new world order. I would encourage our allies to watch it closely so as not to miss out on what could turn out to be a once in a lifetime opportunity.”

The central theme of Trump’s “new world order” is promoting global security through trade and prosperity. The president said he favored “commerce, not chaos” and a new Middle East that “exports technology, not terrorism, and where people of different nations, religions, and creeds are building cities together, not bombing each other out of existence.”

To facilitate this vision, President Trump noted that the sophisticated and gleaming cities of Riyadh and Abu Dhabi were built by visionary Arab leaders who developed their countries in their own ways and consistent with their heritages. He stressed that these countries succeeded due to the hard work of their citizens and not because of Western military intervention, nation-builders, neocons, or liberal nonprofits.

https://www.frontpagemag.com/is-trump-breaking-with-israel/

Is Donald Trump really preparing to recognize a Palestinian state? The news hit like a thunderbolt on Saturday, amid an avalanche of stories claiming that Trump is angry with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and is changing course from his previous wholehearted support of Israel’s defense against Hamas and the other jihadist entities that are determined to destroy it. As is so often the case in such matters, however, there was decidedly less to the story than there initially appeared to be.

The Jerusalem Post picked up the story Saturday from the American news agency The Media Line. The distancing from the claim began in the headline: “Gulf diplomatic source claims Trump will announce US recognition of Palestinian state.” As the story unfolded, the claim became even more tenuous.

The assertion that Trump would recognize a Palestinian state at the upcoming Gulf-US summit was attributed to “a Gulf diplomatic source, who declined to be named or disclose his position.” This anonymous individual claimed that “President Donald Trump will issue a declaration regarding the State of Palestine and American recognition of it, and that there will be the establishment of a Palestinian state without the presence of Hamas.”

Just three paragraphs later, however, The Media Line quoted a person who didn’t decline to be named, denying the whole thing: “Ahmed Al-Ibrahim, a former Gulf diplomat, told The Media Line, ‘I don’t expect it to be about Palestine. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and King Abdullah II of Jordan have not been invited. They are the two countries closest to Palestine, and it would be important for them to be present at any event like this.’”

So what we end up with is one anonymous source indulging in speculation about what Trump will do at the Gulf summit, and someone else denying that speculation. The pro-Israel activist known on X as Brian of London said of the story that it was “Completly [sic] irresponsible for @Jerusalem_Post to run it and especially with that headline. The internet will go crazy over this s**t quote to a 5th tier news wire which is even contradicted by a NAMED source a few paragraphs down.” And indeed, online Israel-haters immediately began celebrating.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/21607/iran-lies-nuclear-weapons

Any deal that permits Iran to keep centrifuges spinning, continue uranium enrichment, or store nuclear material is a deal that guarantees a future nuclear-armed Iran. We cannot afford a disastrous “JCPOA, the Sequel.”

Now, after President Trump’s return, the world is watching to see whether the United States really has the backbone to compel Iran completely to dismantle its nuclear weapons infrastructure – or actually to deliver the alternative.

The Iranian regime is not to be trusted. Its so-called “civilian” nuclear program is a Trojan horse, a fraud designed to keep the West paralyzed. There have to be no more talks, no more half-measures, no more inspectors playing cat and mouse with a regime that lies to their faces with impunity. The only acceptable outcome is either full dismantlement — no centrifuges and enriched uranium for “civilian use”, no secret sites — or unfortunately, the less pretty “Plan B,” if Trump and his administration are to have any credibility.

For more than two decades, the Iranian regime has played a dangerous and calculated game of deception with the West by skillfully masking its nuclear ambitions under the pretense of “civilian use.” This is not a new tactic — it’s a time-tested playbook used by rogue regimes to buy time, mislead international watchdogs, and continue marching in the shadows toward nuclear weapons and the missiles to them.

Tehran has manipulated global diplomacy by leveraging Western naivety and its obsession with appeasement and the search for “peace” to keep all the core elements of its nuclear program intact.

While negotiations and deals were struck in the name of “peace,” Iran preserved and advanced the infrastructure necessary to build nuclear bombs. Preserving its nuclear programs by proliferating secret sites under the deceitful banner of civilian energy has allowed the regime to reap the benefits of economic deals while continuing to lie and manipulate.

https://amgreatness.com/2025/05/09/what-president-trump-needs-in-his-next-national-security-adviser/

President Trump’s decision to remove Michael Waltz as his National Security Adviser (NSA) came as no surprise to Trump administration watchers who knew a change was coming. The president’s decision to nominate Waltz as UN ambassador was a classy way of taking care of a loyal supporter and decorated Army veteran who didn’t work out in a critical administration post.

Waltz’s ouster reflects how Trump runs the presidency as a business: he will not hesitate to replace officials who are not performing to his satisfaction or have lost his confidence. I expect Trump to be ruthless in managing top staff in his second term, as he has little time to enact an extremely ambitious agenda to take back our country.

By contrast, Joe Biden did not fire or replace any senior official in his four years as president. Notably, Biden failed to fire anyone after the disastrous U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, one of the worst foreign policy blunders in American history.

Trump added the acting NSA job to Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s portfolio. This is reportedly a temporary arrangement that could last six months.

The decision to dual-hat Rubio in these top national security posts was a sign of Trump’s confidence and trust in the former Florida senator. (Rubio is actually “quad-hatted”—he also serves as acting administrator of the U.S. Agency for International Development and acting head of the National Archives and Records Administration.) However, as much as I respect Rubio and his capabilities, this is not an ideal situation due to the pressing responsibilities the Secretary of State must perform as America’s chief diplomat and the duties of the National Security Advisor, who serves as the top national security aide to the president and must be available to him 24/7.

Based on my experience as the National Security Council Chief of Staff and discussions with people inside and outside the Trump administration, I have come up with the following recommendations on what the president should look for in his next NSA. (I have a few more suggestions that I will pass to the president’s team privately.)