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FOREIGN POLICY

The Long Shadow of Versailles It’s time to abandon the “new world order” happy talk. Bruce Thornton

https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/2022/03/long-shadow-versailles-bruce-thornton/

Or we can continue with diplomatic bluster, “new world order” happy talk, and feeble sanctions, in which case we will just be managing our decline.

In 1919 the Versailles Treaty established in international law and global institutions two ideals that have framed Western foreign policy ever since. The first is the elevation of national self-determination and democratic government as the default goods for all the world’s peoples. The other is the notion that supranational institutions, international laws, and multinational treaties and covenants are the best means for adjudicating peacefully international disputes and conflicts.

Russia’s current violent, unprovoked invasion of Ukraine is merely the latest example of a century’s worth of repudiation of these ideals that still shape modern foreign policy––a challenge that, if we’re lucky, may lead to a long-needed revision of this ideal of a “rules-based international order” and its dubious foundational assumptions.

American president Woodrow Wilson in his Fourteen Points and speeches during World War I articulated these ideals. In 1918 he told Congress, “National aspirations must be accepted; peoples may now be dominated only by their own consent.” This principle perforce was opposed to colonial empires, as Wilson made clear in the Fourteen Points: “The day of conquest and aggrandizement is gone by, which makes it possible for every nation whose purposes are consistent with justice and the peace of the world to avow now or at any other time the objects it has in view.”

Of course, as we’ve seen over the past century, what the great diversity of global peoples and cultures mean by “justice” differs considerably, especially regarding the use of force to realize national ambitions at the expense of other nations. Such ideals have been vulnerable as well to the duplicitous diplomacy, propaganda, and aggression of ambitious states. Hitler brilliantly turned this ideal against its champions like France and England during the Sudetenland crisis of September, 1938. After all, didn’t the 3 million alleged ethnic Germans stranded in the new state of Czechoslovakia after the war deserve their “national aspirations” to be “accepted”? Why should they, as Reich Minister of Propaganda Joseph Goebbels lied during the crisis, have to tolerate the “brutal treatment of women and children of German blood” at the hands of alien Czechs?

Biden’s Political Myopia Endangering Europe: Allow the EastMed Pipeline by Burak Bekdil

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18281/biden-europe-eastmed-pipeline

Biden surprised EastMed partners by abruptly withdrawing U.S. support for the pipeline on January 9, thereby effectively killing the project, preventing a diversified supply of energy to Europe, and further assuring even greater revenues for Russia and its war machine.

“The Biden Administration’s actions in this matter are particularly objectionable and hypocritical in light of its tacit approval of Russia’s Nord Stream pipeline, which will only deepen Europe’s energy dependence on a volatile adversary.” — U.S. Representative Gus Bilirakis, January 24, 2022.

As Biden was busy undercutting three staunch U.S. allies in the Mediterranean [Cyprus, Israel and Greece] to appease Erdoğan and a fantasy of “green energy” — that is years from being either ready or affordable — to appease America’s Democrat Party, Ankara would once again prove to be only a part-time Western ally.

“During the vote [against Russia]… Turkey decided to abstain,” Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said. “We don’t want to break off the dialogue with Russia.”

Biden should immediately reverse his decision and permit the EastMed pipeline.

In December 2019, Biden had described Erdoğan as an autocrat and promised to empower Turkey’s opposition parties through democratic processes. Was that a joke, or is Biden a crypto-fan of Erdoğan?

Once again U.S. President Joe Biden’s strategic miscalculation is coming with a strategic cost: appeasing NATO’s pro-Putin, part-time ally Turkey and jeopardizing Europe’s energy security.

The Putin-Puppet Slander against Mike Pompeo By Andrew C. McCarthy

https://www.nationalreview.com/2022/02/the-putin-puppet-slander-against-mike-pompeo/

Far from ‘praising’ Russia’s strongman, the former secretary of state was warning that we underestimate him at our peril.

M ike Pompeo is a West Point grad who served in Bavaria as an Army officer along the Iron Curtain line, opposite the Soviet Union and its similarly monstrous client regime in East Germany. This was just before the Berlin Wall fell and the evil empire disintegrated. He was also CIA director and secretary of state when the Trump administration, for all the then-president’s nauseating rhetoric about Vladimir Putin, treated Russia more realistically and more harshly than the Biden administration has.

As Dan McLaughlin observes, 62 percent of Americans — including four in ten Democrats — believe that if Donald Trump were still president, Putin would not dare have invaded Ukraine. If they are right about that, it has a lot to do with Secretary Pompeo’s clear-eyed steering of American foreign policy. You would never have seen Pompeo brandishing a “Reset” button with his Russian counterpart, much less helping Putin develop technological capabilities — while the Defense Department and the FBI pleaded with the State Department to stop.

That’s why I rolled my eyes this past week upon hearing claims that Pompeo had lavished praise on Putin even as the dictator was commencing his war of aggression. It just seemed too stupid to waste time on with so much of importance going on. But the story has persisted. It is based on a remark that made sense in context, but that of course was deracinated and spun into something it clearly wasn’t after a Daily Beast reporter posted an isolated quote. Fortunately, our friend Byron York at the Washington Examiner put the time in to report on exactly what Pompeo said in a long interview (45 minutes) by Harry Kazianis of the Center for the National Interest.

The assessment of Putin that has gotten the former secretary of state in hot water was as follows: “Very capable. I have enormous respect for him.” Patently, this was along the lines of “know thy enemy.” Pompeo immediately elaborated that he had previously been criticized for offering this assessment, but what he meant was that it would be greatly to America’s detriment to underestimate Putin because he is a rival and he is “very savvy, very shrewd.” Pompeo added that he felt this way because Putin was

an interlocutor that was always well informed and deeply clear about what Russian interests were. I appreciated that. It required the same from us, from me, from my team. We had to be equally prepared and equally protective of the interests that mattered to the United States.

Energy, Russia and American Power Biden’s war on fossil fuels helps Putin, as the Ukraine crisis shows.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/energy-and-american-power-vladimir-putin-russia-ukraine-joe-biden-fossil-fuels-energy-11645902803?mod=opinion_lead_pos1

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a 3 a.m. wake-up call to President Biden and America’s liberal political class: Cease your war on U.S. energy. Europe’s climate obsessions have rendered it vulnerable to Vladimir Putin’s extortion, and the U.S. is in danger of repeating that tragic mistake.

No less than Igor Sechin, CEO of Russia’s state-owned Rosneft, warned Europe last summer: “Some ecologists and politicians urge for a hasty energy transition, yet it requires an unrealistically fast launch of renewable energy sources and faces issues with storage, ensuring reliability and stability of power generation.”

Europe’s hefty renewable subsidies have rendered nuclear and coal power economically uncompetitive. Governments have also forced loads of nuclear and coal plants to retire prematurely, believing wind and solar could replace them. Hello? Renewables don’t provide reliable power 365 days a year, 24 hours a day.

Europe has been left to rely increasingly on natural gas to keep the lights on. But governments have effectively banned hydraulic fracturing, which would have let them charge their economies with domestically produced gas. Europe now imports almost all of its gas, with 40% coming from Russia.

Sluggish wind last summer sent natural gas demand and prices soaring. Some manufacturers had to shut down. Then Russia slowed gas deliveries, limiting Europe’s supply heading into the winter. Strategic advantage: Putin.

Ukraine’s Deadly Gamble By tying itself to a reckless and dangerous America, the Ukrainians made a blunder that client states will study for years to come Lee Smith

https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/ukraines-deadly-gamble

Russian President Vladimir Putin chose this war, Joe Biden said in his Thursday afternoon speech to America regarding the conflict in Ukraine. That is true, but U.S. elites also had something to do with Putin’s ugly and destructive choice—a role that Democrats and Republicans are eager to paper over with noble-sounding rhetoric about the bravery of Ukraine’s badly outgunned military. Yes, the Ukrainian soldiers standing up to Putin are very brave, but it was Americans that put them in harm’s way by using their country as a weapon, first against Russia and then against each other, with little consideration for the Ukrainian people who are now paying the price for America’s folly.

It is not an expression of support for Putin’s grotesque actions to try to understand why it seemed worthwhile for him to risk hundreds of billions of dollars, the lives of thousands of servicemen, and the possible stability of his own regime in order to invade his neighbor. After all, Putin’s reputation until this moment has always been as a shrewd ex-KGB man who eschewed high-risk gambles in favor of sure things backed by the United States, like entering Syria and then escalating forces there. So why has he adopted exactly the opposite strategy here, and chosen the road of open high-risk confrontation with the American superpower?

Yes, Putin wants to prevent NATO from expanding to Russia’s border. But the larger answer is that he finds the U.S. government’s relationship with Ukraine genuinely threatening. That’s because for nearly two decades, the U.S. national security establishment under both Democratic and Republican administrations has used Ukraine as an instrument to destabilize Russia, and specifically to target Putin.

While the timing of Putin’s attack on Ukraine is no doubt connected to a variety of factors, including the Russian dictator’s read on U.S. domestic politics and the preferences of his own superpower sponsor in Beijing, the sense that Ukraine poses a meaningful threat to Russia is not a product of Putin’s paranoia—or of a sudden desire to restore the power and prestige of the Soviet Union, however much Putin might wish for that to happen. Rather, it is a geopolitical threat that has grown steadily more pressing and been employed with greater recklessness by Americans and Ukrainians alike over the past decade.

JOE BIDEN: PUTIN’S GREEN PATSY

https://issuesinsights.com/2022/02/25/joe-biden-putins-green-patsy/

President Joe Biden has finally come forward with sanctions against Russia and Vladimir Putin for invading Ukraine. Don’t expect much. Thanks to Biden’s economically destructive climate-change policies, Putin holds a decisive advantage in this conflict.

“This aggression cannot go unanswered,” Biden said, speaking Thursday as he unveiled what he called “devastating” financial punishments. “If it did, the consequences for America would be much worse. America stands up to bullies. We stand up for freedom. This is who we are.”

During his campaigns and while in office, Biden has often posed as a tough guy against the Russians – even as his family pocketed millions from Russian and pro-Russian Ukrainian politicians, corruption virtually ignored by the American big media.

“Putin knows, if I am president of the United States,” Biden said in a 2019 fundraising video, “his days of tyranny and trying to intimidate the United States and those in Eastern Europe are over.” 

So far, mission not accomplished.

Then there’s this:

“Vladimir Putin doesn’t want me to be president. He doesn’t want me to be our nominee,” Biden tweeted on Feb. 21, 2020. “If you’re wondering why – it’s because I’m the only person in this field who’s ever gone toe-to-toe with him.”

Well, he’s now going “toe-to-toe” with Putin for real, and it doesn’t look so good. His sanctions, which may pinch Russia a bit but don’t go nearly far enough to reverse Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, sound tough. Among them are restrictions on Russian financial institutions, bans on technology exports, and financial restrictions on some members of Putin’s government. But not Putin himself.

“Putin is the aggressor. Putin chose this war. And now he and his country will bear the consequences,” Biden said Thursday, outlining his actions, which, he predicted, would “impose severe costs on the Russian economy, both immediately and over time.”

In fact, Biden pulled his punches, leaving Russia’s economy still standing.

Breaking the Moscow/Beijing axis should be our top priority: Paul Petrick

https://issuesinsights.com/2022/02/24/the-breaking-the-moscow-beijing-axis-should-be-our-top-priority/

What a difference a half-century makes.

In February 1972, the People’s Republic of China hosted a history-making American delegation headed by President Richard M. Nixon, the Middle Kingdom’s most important Western visitor since Marco Polo.  In February 2022, no Western heads of state were in Beijing as the city played host to the Winter Olympics.

Those hoping the U.S.-led diplomatic boycott would cause red faces in Red China were disappointed when chief ChiCom Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin held their 38th meeting, just prior to the opening ceremonies.  From their conference emerged a 5,000-word joint declaration pledging cooperation on military and economic matters around the world and beyond (plans for a Sino-Russian moon base were announced last year).

Preventing such a combination, which Xi has described as something that “exceeds an alliance,” has been an objective of foreign policy strategists since the beginning of the last century. The failure to achieve that objective is nothing short of calamitous according to fin de siècle historian Henry Adams.

Having relieved Spain of the remnants of her empire via the Spanish-American War, America emerged as a new world power at the dawn of the 20th Century. At that time, Henry Adams emerged as a peak geopolitical prognosticator.  The scion of presidents and diplomats, Adams was famously perplexed by the modern world, but nonetheless possessed an unparalleled foresight into the future of foreign affairs.  He correctly predicted the decline of the British Empire, world war, the Bolshevik Revolution, NATO, and the atomic bomb.

But Adams’ most chilling insight came as his friend and neighbor Secretary of State John Hay was desperately trying to prevent Russian colonization of China through his “Open Door” policy of guaranteeing world powers equal access to Chinese markets.  Adams warned, “if Russia organizes China as an economical power, the little drama of history will end in the overthrow of our clumsy [W]estern civilization.”

Biden throws Putin into Xi’s briar patch US has pushed Putin into an alliance with China that could rank as America’s biggest strategic blunder of the century By David P. Goldman

https://asiatimes.com/2022/02/biden-throws-putin-into-xis-briar-patch/

This is the sort of move that gives “Pyrrhic victory” a bad name.

Washington has backed Putin into a corner, forcing him to take drastic measures to protect Russian minorities in Ukraine. That in turn forced Europe’s leaders into Washington’s camp, and within 48 hours, the European discourse has shifted away from economic cooperation with Russia to a possible boycott of Russian gas.

Putin will sell the gas to China, which last month proposed to construct a pipeline that would increase Russia’s deliveries tenfold. More importantly, Russia’s considerable scientific and engineering resources—by some measure on par with those of the United States—will be put in the service of China’s high-tech industry.

Washington maneuvered Russia into the crisis. Putin was willing to negotiate the status of the Russophone districts of Eastern Ukraine under the 2015 Minsk protocols brokered by the French and Germans, and signed by Ukraine, Germany, France, Russia and representatives of Luhansk and Donetsk, the rebel provinces.

The Ukraine government—with American instigation—abandoned an agreement that would have guaranteed the rights of the Russian minority within a sovereign Ukraine, as Steve Bryen reported in these pages on February 21.

Washington and London, Bryen emphasized, “think a Minsk-based deal would lead to the ‘Finlandization’ of Ukraine. Behind the scenes, it is quite clear, by omission and commission, that Washington has let the Ukrainians believe that Minsk II is off the table – although the US was never a party to Minsk II.”

Why Is Democratic Biden Rescuing Autocratic Erdoğan at the Expense of U.S. Allies? by Burak Bekdil

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18238/biden-erdogan

In early January… in a bolder, less expected and potentially damaging geostrategic move that angered all four of Turkey’s Mediterranean rivals (Greece, Cyprus, Israel and Egypt), the Biden administration silently abandoned an eastern Mediterranean pipeline project (EastMed) that would carry Israeli gas through Cyprus to Europe.

“By undermining the project, the administration is undercutting three of our strongest allies in the region: Israel, Greece, and Cyprus, as well as the European Union’s hopes for energy independence and economic prosperity.” — Press release published on the congressional website of U.S. House Representative Gus Bilirakis, January 24, 2022.

“The Biden administration’s actions in this matter are particularly objectionable and hypocritical in light of its tacit approval of Russia’s Nord Stream pipeline, which will only deepen Europe’s energy dependence on a volatile adversary.” — Rep. Gus Bilirakis, January 24, 2022,

A nosediving, cash-strapped economy, international isolation and plummeting popularity have put Erdoğan back on the defensive. Is Biden actually trying to destabilize this part of the world by provoking Erdoğan’s assertive aspirations just when they had been — possibly temporarily — buried?

In just over one year in office, U.S. President Joe Biden has swung from a pledge to oust Turkey’s Islamist autocrat, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, to occasionally appease him, first behind doors, and now publicly.

Appearing to detest Erdoğan’s suffocating regime, increasingly Islamist governance and pro-Russian aspirations, Biden, a year before he became president, had described Erdoğan as an autocrat and promised to empower Turkey’s opposition parties through democratic processes.

No One Fears Biden By Kyle Smith

https://www.nationalreview.com/2022/02/no-one-fears-this-pathetic-old-geezer/?utm_source=recirc-desktop&utm_medium=homepage&utm_campaign=river&utm_content=featured-content-trending&utm_term=third

Long before our president invited a Ukrainian invasion by suggesting a ‘minor incursion’ would be fine, Vladimir Putin had his number.

L ast June, ahead of a Russia–U.S. meeting, Time magazine conjured up a piece of embarrassing cover-art propaganda featuring Joe Biden’s aviator glasses reflecting Vladimir Putin. At last, a U.S. president had Putin in his sights! Finally we’d get back to putting Russia in its place.

“How Biden Plans to Get Tough on Putin During Their Geneva Summit,” promised a breathless story by Brian Bennett. A senior administration official suggested Biden, despite the “chaos” that President Trump had supposedly unleashed in the world, would use a combination of unity talk — everyone in Europe was on the same page about Russia, supposedly — and thinly veiled threats about retaliatory cyberattacks to show Putin who’s boss. “The whole goal is to have [Putin] come away saying, ‘The Americans are onto us and have us encircled,’” the official told Bennett. The writer editorialized that, “Biden is qualified to lead the approach. He’s spent decades in debates on U.S.-Russian relations as a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.” Whew, then.

So how’d everything work out? Well, according to Bennett himself, in a follow-up piece that sounded a bit less like a fangirl transcribing a press release and more like someone who had actually observed Biden up close, noted that Putin seemed somehow to have been the one who came out on top. “The stagecraft,” Bennett noted glumly, “played to Putin’s personal vanity and his long-standing desire for Russia to be taken seriously as a major rival to the U.S. . . . Putin seemed to relish the platform in Geneva” because it placed the two countries on an equal footing. Oh, and the “White House said it did not expect any deliverables to come out of the meeting,” despite Biden doing a very Joe Biden version of laying down the law: He handed Putin a list of 16 kinds of cyberattacks that he considered to be off limits. Did that mean all other kinds were okay? Putin may have been forgiven if he went back to his dacha and spent the following 24 hours giggling.

“What ever [sic] happens in Ukraine we shouldn’t underestimate the fact the United States has retaken the adult chair in the world,” claimed former Clinton White House spokesman Joe Lockhart on Twitter yesterday. “Biden has restored American leadership so damaged by Trump. The world needs us and we have a President who can and does lead.” The grownups are back in charge? Granted that Trump behaved, and behaves, like a toddler. But is a woke undergraduate a grownup?