RUTHFULLY YOURS

https://amgreatness.com/2022/02/08/blinkmanship/

Because of increasing specialization, most of today’s top government officials have spent their entire lives in government service. They lack the gentleman-amateur chops of a Dean Acheson or the business background of someone like Donald Trump. The results are not encouraging. 

One thing you learn in business is that bluffing is dangerous. It’s easier to make promises than to keep them, and that often it’s better to be ambiguous, to say nothing, or, if necessary, to communicate only in private. 

A good counterexample would be Barack Obama with his infamous “red line” in Syria. He said the Syrian government’s use of chemical weapons against civilians would cross a red line resulting in serious consequences and retaliation. Yet when Bashar al Assad allegedly approved the use of chemical weapons against a rebel civilian enclave, Obama did nothing. 

Setting aside the merits and demerits of our Syria policy, this is just bad business. It is the type of thing a coddled academic with no real life experience would think is a great idea, but something an ordinary real estate agent, bar manager, or car salesman knows is a bad idea. Threats box in the speaker and are only as effective as his perceived ability and willingness to back them up.

Biden’s life experience has done little more than Obama’s to prepare him for the moment. While he has been bloviating in the U.S. Senate since the 1970s, he has not covered himself with glory. His contributions to foreign policy typically have revealed him to be thoughtless and unsophisticated, opposing the mission to kill Osama bin Laden, among other things, while supporting the Iraq War. 

https://www.nationalreview.com/2022/02/the-afghanistan-debacle-looks-worse-and-worse/#slide-1

The more we learn about the administration’s Afghanistan withdrawal, the more it becomes clear that its decisions were driven by political considerations and panic.

A s the Biden administration’s chaotic and inept withdrawal from Afghanistan was unfolding in August 2021, a suicide bomber murdered 13 American servicemembers, and at least 170 Afghans, at the Abbey Gate outside Kabul’s Hamid Karzai International Airport. It was one of the deadliest attacks on our troops in our 20 years in that nation.

“Know this,” Biden said after the bombing. “We will not forgive. We will not forget. We will hunt you down and make you pay.” This turned out to be face-saving political theater. Three days later, an air strike killed ten Afghans, seven of them children. Not one of the dead, as far as we know, was an “ISIS facilitator,” as the administration had alleged.

In fact, the Pentagon now says that the bombing was the work of a lone terrorist rather than a “complex” network, as the Biden administration had initially maintained. At the time, General Mark Milley not only referred to the strike as “valid” and “righteous” — let’s concede for a moment that he was basing this on the best available information — but went further to describe a “secondary explosion” and a supposed plethora of evidence justifying the bombing. None of that, it seems, was true. It seems increasingly likely that Biden was going to blow someone up to project his toughness.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18204/do-not-open-nord-stream

The Russian threat… was very clear — that Russia would then be able to shut off its gas to Europe in the middle of winter [by means of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline], if it chose to, as a form of blackmail, at which point the US might then be expected to save Europe from its own deal….

The warnings to Europe went unheeded.

How should the U.S. respond? The U.S. needs to continue to speak clearly and firmly. NATO is the most important military alliance that the U.S. has. We need it to be strong and effective. The only path forward is for all of the members to recommit themselves to investing in NATO’s future. Combined with a commitment to our shared political and economic values, NATO will remain a force for the good: to protect the Free World from predators. It is still not too late for the U.S. to reverse its catastrophic decision and stop the opening of the Nord Stream 2.

This project [Nord Stream 2] poses a direct threat to the security and stability of Ukraine. It removes any motivation for Russia to engage good faith negotiations in regards to Ukraine — negotiations which would contribute to political stability in Ukraine and in the region. This is just the tip of the iceberg. Russia continues to threaten its neighbors and attempts to destabilize Western governments in multiple additional ways.

Nord Stream 2 would give Putin a new tool to continue these nefarious actions. Russia has already used energy as a lever to achieve its foreign policy objectives. In 2009, Russia cut off energy supplies to Europe. With Nord Stream 2 in place it would have an even more powerful “economic tool” to threaten European economies, and even their national security. Nord Stream is a commercial project with major geo-political overtones.

This week, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte and Foreign Minister Wobke Hoekstra (no relation) met with Ukrainian leaders in Kiev. The visit was intended to signal Dutch support to the government of Ukraine in the face of Russian build-up provocations on its border. As with other European national security moves, the meeting may be too little too late.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/rushing-to-a-weaker-iran-deal-nuclear-inspectors-concessions-sanctions-oil-exports-missiles-11644170016?mod=opinion_lead_pos3

The diplomatic signs point to the Biden Administration striking a revised nuclear deal with Iran, and the latest bad news is sanctions relief even before an accord is struck.

On Friday Secretary of State Antony Blinken restored sanctions waivers on Iranian civilian nuclear activity that the Trump Administration had rescinded in 2020. Foreign companies working on such projects will now be exempt from economic penalties. Iran’s foreign minister responded that the latest move was “good but not enough.” Pre-emptive concessions invite more demands.

“We did NOT provide sanctions relief for Iran and WILL NOT until/unless Tehran returns to its commitments under the JCPOA,” State Department spokesman Ned Price tweeted. This is semantic spin. Friday’s move was only the most recent concession.

Washington lifted sanctions on several Iranian officials and firms in June and ended the fight to restore “snap back” sanctions at the United Nations a year ago. Iran’s oil exports began recovering last year after falling from 2.5 million barrels a day in 2017 to less than half a million daily in 2020, as U.S. enforcement eased.

Western negotiators have been saying since December that there are only weeks left to restore the deal, yet the talks roll on. Members of the American team reportedly quit over chief negotiator’s Robert Malley’s soft stance.

The 2015 deal was weak enough, with nuclear restraints phased out by 2031. It didn’t address Iran’s missile program nor its malign regional activity. The nuclear knowledge Iran has gained from violating the deal can’t be unlearned. “The Biden administration expects a restored nuclear deal would leave Iran capable of amassing enough nuclear fuel for a bomb in significantly less than a year, a shorter time frame than the one that underpinned the 2015 agreement,” the Journal reported last week.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18201/biden-uae-treatment

“After the terrorist designation was lifted, it is clear the Houthis believed they could resume their terrorist operations because no one was prepared to stop them.” — A senior Gulf security official, to the author, January 2022.

Emirati leaders have publicly called on US President Joe Biden to reimpose Washington’s terrorist designation against the Houthis, a move Gulf officials say would ultimately disrupt Iranian attempts to supply the rebels with sophisticated weaponry.

In addition, Washington should also pay heed to the Emiratis’ request, and that of other oil-rich potential targets in the Gulf, for enhanced defence capabilities to counter the Houthi threat.

At the very least, therefore, the Biden administration should make amends for its ill-conceived decision to lift the terrorist designation against the Houthis, and provide the Emiratis with the sophisticated weaponry they require to defend themselves against the deadly threat posed by the Iranian-backed rebels.

The continuing escalation by Iran and the Houthis is — as most likely is their intent — threatening to destabilise the region. If they are not stopped, and quickly, the Biden legacy, along with its catastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan, will consist of appeasing and emboldening groups that draw on terrorism — for instance the Houthis, the Palestinians and possibly the Taliban — as well as hostile regimes, including Russia, China and Iran.

The Biden administration should hang its head in shame over its February 2021 decision to lift the terrorist designation imposed on Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi rebels, in the wake of the deadly attacks launched last month against the United Arab Emirates (UAE), one of Washington’s key allies in the Gulf.

https://amgreatness.com/2022/02/02/russian-appeasement-was-a-left-wing-monopoly/

One way of understanding the 2009-2014 Obama Administration policy of “reset” with Vladimir Putin’s Russia is to recall two iconic incidents. 

The first was the 2009 “reset.” 

Newly appointed Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced that she would pursue a “reset” détente with Russia. America would relax the prior Bush Administration’s mild ostracism of Russia after its 2008 invasion of Georgia and softly start anew. 

The second was President Barack Obama’s hot mic moment in March 2012 in Seoul, South Korea. Obama got caught asking Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to reassure Vladimir Putin. 

Or as Obama put it: “After my election I have more flexibility . . . On all these issues, but particularly missile defense, this, this can be solved but it’s important for him to give me space . . . This is my last election. After my election, I have more flexibility.”

Both Obama and Putin apparently got their quid pro quo wishes.

Obama was reelected in 2012. The United States was abandoning missile defense in Eastern Europe. Vladimir Putin gave space and so did not invade Eastern Ukraine and the Crimea—until 2014.

During this 2009-2014 reset, a confused United States invited Russia back into the Middle East after a nearly 40-year hiatus. It refused to provide a beleaguered Ukraine with offensive weapons. 

NATO members increasingly ignored their promised military contributions. The United States cut defense spending. 

Obama discouraged domestic gas and oil production. The world price of oil soared, enriching Putin’s Russia. 

At a time when Secretary of State Clinton was overseeing a controversial sale of North American uranium deposits to a Russian-affiliated company, her spouse Bill Clinton mysteriously received $500,000 for a single speech in Moscow. 

Renaissance Capital, a Russian bank with ties to the company, put up the cash. During the reset period, Russian-owned or affiliated companies gave several million dollars to the Clinton Foundation.

Contemporaneously, Hunter Biden, son of then-Vice President Joe Biden, received a mysterious $3.5 million wire transfer from Elena Baturina. She was supposedly the wealthiest woman in Russia and the widow of Yury Luzhkov, the former mayor of Moscow who had strong ties to the Putin government. 

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2022/02/colossal_incompetence_biden_officials_completely_unprepared_for_fall_of_afghanistan_leaked_memo_shows.html

It’s not huge news that the Biden administration was a colossal failure on Afghanistan, or that Joe Biden still thinks there’s nothing to apologize for.

What’s news now is the colossal incompetence that went on inside that administration as Afghanistan was collapsing, according to a leaked memo that Axios got hold of:

Leaked notes from a White House Situation Room meeting the day before Kabul fell shed new light on just how unprepared the Biden administration was to evacuate Afghan nationals who’d helped the United States in its 20-year war against the Taliban.

Why it matters: Hours before the Taliban seized control of Afghanistan’s capital on Aug. 15, 2021, senior Biden administration officials were still discussing and assigning basic actions involved in a mass civilian evacuation.

Outsiders were frustrated and suspicious the administration was having plenty of meetings but was stuck in bureaucratic inertia and lacked urgency until the last minute.
While the word “immediately” peppers the document, it’s clear officials were still scrambling to finalize their plans — on the afternoon of Aug. 14.
For example, they’d just decided they needed to notify local Afghan staff “to begin to register their interest in relocation to the United States,” the document says.
And they were still determining which countries could serve as transit points for evacuees.

It’s nasty stuff.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18185/us-encouraging-houthis

The Arabs say that the Biden administration made a mistake when it decided last year to remove the Houthis from the international terrorist list. The Biden administration’s move, they noted, has emboldened one of the most dangerous terrorist groups in the Middle East and endangered international peace and security.

Ultimately, the terrorism of Iran and its terrorist groups will reach the US, and, as with Afghanistan, it is the Biden administration that will justly be blamed.

The 22 members of the Arab League urged the Biden administration to re-classify the Iran-backed Houthi militia as a terrorist organization. The attacks “constitute… a real threat to… energy supplies and the stability of the global economy…. harm international peace and security, and pose a threat to international commercial shipping lines.” — Asharq Al-Awsat, January 24, 2022.

“What is the Biden administration waiting for in order to re-evaluate its position? Does it want to continue being a spectator?” – Atef Saadawy, Egyptian strategic and international affairs expert, Sky News Arabia, January 18, 2022.

The re-designation of the Houthi militia as a terrorist organization “will… facilitate the process of establishing peace in Yemen and a political solution that preserves its unity and territorial integrity and the security and stability of neighboring countries.” — Atef Saadawy, Sky News Arabia, January 18, 2022.

The time has come for the US administration… “to end its contradictory positions and flabby handling of the Yemeni crisis, which has exacerbated matters even more.” — Atef Saadawy, Sky News Arabia, January 18, 2022.

“What is happening now in Yemen is the responsibility of the US…. The first decision of the Biden administration… was to remove the Houthis from the list of terrorism, and this is a big mistake. Iran wants to use the Houthis to pressure the Americans to revive the nuclear deal.” — Emad Adin Adib, prominent Egyptian writer, journalist and businessman, El Watan News, January 25, 2022.

“[T]he Biden administration needs to show that it knows what is happening in the Middle East….Iran invested every dollar [from the Obama administration] in the service of its expansion project [in the Arab countries] and the empowerment of its militias in the region.” — Khairallah Khairallah, Lebanese writer and political analyst, Alraimedia.com, January 22, 2022.

“Moreover, it is no secret that the current US administration is encouraging the Houthis to be more aggressive. They [the Houthis] are more hostile towards the US itself. A few weeks ago, the Houthis stormed the US embassy in [the Yemeni capital of] Sana’a…. It seems that the US administration is still convinced that Iran wants an agreement in Vienna and that the Houthis are still searching for a peaceful solution in Yemen.” — Khairallah Khairallah, Alraimedia.com, January 22, 2022.

https://www.nysun.com/editorials/america-appears-to-be-edging-toward-recognition/91994/

America and its European allies, in what would be a final humiliation, appear to be moving toward recognition of — in effect, a surrender to — the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. Following meetings with the Kabul regime at Oslo, the Western powers released a statement falling short of “official recognition or legitimization of the interim government.” Yet it outlines conditions for the Taliban to resume a role on the world stage.

The Western powers emphasized “the importance of respect for human rights” in Afghanistan as well as “the strong need for an inclusive and representative political system” in the war-torn nation. The Taliban was also encouraged “to do more to stop the alarming increase of human rights violations.” There were no promises of renewed funding in the statement, but it suggests aid could flow again if the Taliban reforms its ways.

Afghan opponents of the Taliban are calling it a mistake to hold the meetings at all. “We believe this conference was a form of appeasement by Western governments to a terrorist group,” a spokesman for Afghanistan’s National Resistance Front, Ali Nazary, tells the Sun. The Resistance Front — led by Ahmad Massoud, a son of the anti-Soviet fighter, Ahmad Shah Massoud — bills itself as “the last force fighting for the restoration of democracy in Afghanistan.”

The Western powers may be attempting to move toward recognition of the Taliban, Mr. Nazary says, but he predicts the effort will fail. “The Taliban will never be able to meet those conditions,” Mr. Nazary said. The Taliban is a “fractured group fighting among themselves” and is not able to present any coherent message to foreign powers. Under these circumstances, “their promises are worthless,” Mr. Nazary contended.