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FOREIGN POLICY

Biden’s diplomacy of disaster – The Iranians just checkmated him with the whole world watching Dominic Green

https://spectatorworld.com/topic/bidens-diplomacy-disaster-iran/

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me seven times, shame on the United States, whose leaders seem determined to drive it into a decline whose rapidity and extent is unparalleled in the history of great powers.

Shame on the Democrats too, for putting domestic vanity over the national interest. Shame on Barack Obama and, should he be aware of what’s going on in Vienna, shame on Joe Biden, for pursuing the diplomacy of disaster.

The State Department’s envoys are back in Vienna in the hope of starting a seventh round of negotiations over reviving Obama’s “Iran deal.” But there seems to be nothing left to talk about. Iran is increasingly intransigent, and its latest demands give the US and its allies a choice between surrender or defeat.

The problem with “jaw-jaw” is that when the talking stops, “war-war” is what remains. The Iranian regime has outplayed the American amateurs at every turn. It is often noted that the Iranians play chess and like to haggle, but really, a child could have outplayed the US.

In their colossal self-regard, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his chief negotiator Robert Malley promised Iran what it wanted — sanctions relief and an open path to the Bomb — before the negotiations had even begun. Naturally, the Iranians pushed for more, played for time and prepared for the day of victory. And now, to the shock of the State Department, they’ve announced a new set of demands that undo the hypothetical progress achieved in the previous six rounds of talks.

Checkmate. Now, it is possible that the US will surrender and get some kind of deal that John Kerry will call a return to the JCPOA of 2015. But this will be an exercise in face-saving — and it will only happen if the Iranians let it happen. If I were them, I’d keep pushing. Iran is now not just on the threshold of nuclear weapons; it’s on the threshold of finally defeating the Great Satan, expelling the US from the Middle East and Central Asia, establishing an empire over the Arabs and nuclear-tipped intimidation over Turkey and the Europeans.

How American Technology Aids China’s Global Ambitions by Judith Bergman

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/17945/china-american-technology

US technology has enabled China to build and successfully test an advanced nuclear-able hypersonic missile that could… evade US missile-defense systems, and succeed in striking the US mainland.

Overall, billions of dollars have been raised for Chinese companies producing computer chips, according to the Rhodium investigation.

Apart from investments, US companies are supplying Chinese companies with the trained manpower to boost their own microchip industry. China is intensively recruiting senior engineers and executives from US companies and their China affiliates.

The semiconductor field in China is booming: More than 22,000 new semiconductor companies were reportedly registered in China in 2020, and another 4,350 in the first two months of 2021.

Even though many of those companies might ostensibly operate for civilian purposes, China operates a strict policy of civil and military fusion. That policy boils down to an all-of-society effort towards boosting China’s military modernization through the use of all technological means at Chinese society’s disposal….

China has made AI its highest priority, vowing to lead the field globally by 2030. Like semiconductors, AI is a dual-use technology, used for civilian, as well as military purposes.

In 2017, for instance, American company Synopsys set up a $100 million strategic investment fund for the Chinese market “to collaborate with local companies and venture capital in investing in the areas of chip design, artificial intelligence cloud-computing, software security and EDA tools.”

In other words, American businesses rushing to invest in China — a country openly dedicated to unseating the US and dominating the planet “economically, militarily and technologically” — should have everyone worried.

US technology has enabled China to build and successfully test an advanced nuclear-capable hypersonic missile that experts and politicians fear could evade US missile-defense systems, and succeed in striking the US mainland.

“The People’s Liberation Army now has an increasingly credible capability to undermine our missile defenses and threaten the American homeland with both conventional and nuclear strikes,” said Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI), member of the House Armed Services Committee. “Even more disturbing is the fact that American technology has contributed to the PLA’s hypersonic missile program.”

Biden Invites Pro-Taliban Pakistan to “Democracy Summit” Daniel Greenfield

https://www.frontpagemag.com/point/2021/12/biden-invites-pro-taliban-pakistan-democracy-daniel-greenfield/

A day after the Taliban seized power in Kabul and President Ashraf Ghani fled the war-torn country, Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan said Afghans have “broken the chains of slavery in the country.”

Doesn’t stop Pakistan from getting an invite to Biden’s Democracy Summit.

Even Foreign Policy mag and the Washington Post both note that being a democracy doesn’t seem to be a requirement for participating in Biden’s democracy summit.

No one can actually articulate how the attendees are in any way consistently democratic.

 “Inclusion or an invitation is not a stamp of approval on their approach to democracy,” Jen Psaki argued.

Then why bother and why call it a democracy summit at all? Call it an international ice cream social.

But, despite Biden inviting Pakistan, Osama’s pals aren’t sure they actually intend to virtually show up.

Pakistani decision-makers are holding extensive consultations on whether to attend the virtual summit on democracy convened by US President Joe Biden this week, as certain issues are making it difficult for Islamabad to make the final call.

Official sources, however, said the decision would be announced soon. The Foreign Office is tight-lipped over the subject, while diplomatic sources have told The Express Tribune that the White House is still waiting for Pakistan’s official response to the invitation.

China and Russia Race Ahead of America America twiddles its thumbs while its enemies develop anti-satellite capabilities and hypersonic missiles. Caroline Glick

https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/2021/12/china-and-russia-race-ahead-america-caroline-glick/

Over the past several weeks a hard truth has become undeniable: The United States of America is no longer the all-powerful superpower it has been since the end of the Cold War. Far from it. The strategic implications of this state of affairs are profound, for both the United States and its allies.

A nation’s position in the global pecking order is based on two things—its capabilities and its credibility. America’s capabilities have diminished in a stunning way relative to its superpower competitors. And so has its credibility.

For over a generation, U.S. leaders eschewed “the weaponization of space.” But as they congratulated themselves on their restraint, the Chinese and the Russians weaponized space.

On Nov. 16, Russia launched a surface-to-air missile into space that destroyed an antiquated Cosmos spy satellite located dangerously close to the International Space Station. The satellite exploded into 1,500 pieces, all of which were large enough to imperil the space station and the eight astronauts (including two Russians) on board. NASA responded with a nasty condemnation.

This brings us to China.

China’s anti-satellite program is far vaster than Russia’s. China has missiles capable of destroying satellites, and it fields laser and jamming technologies capable of blocking satellite communications. Last month, China raised its anti-satellite capabilities several notches with its launch of “Shijian-21.” “Shijian-21” is a satellite with a robotic arm the Chinese claim is geared towards cleaning “space junk.”

U.S. Air Force Gen. James Dickinson has a different, more plausible explanation for the arm’s purpose. Speaking to Congress in April, Dickenson said, “Space-based robotic arm technology could be used in a future system for grappling other satellites.”

The U.S. Needs a Hypersonic Capability Now Washington mothballed its program just as Beijing made developing the technology a priority. By Arthur Herman

https://www.wsj.com/articles/america-needs-a-hypersonic-capability-china-xi-beijing-missile-weapons-attack-defense-budget-11638827597?mod=opinion_lead_pos5

Eighty years ago, imperial Japan used a technology first developed by the U.S. and the U.K.—carrier-based bombing and torpedo attacks—to cripple the American Navy at Pearl Harbor. Americans must now wonder whether China is setting the stage for another devastating attack on American forces using another U.S.-pioneered technology: hypersonic missiles.

China’s July 2021 test of a hypersonic missile was literally a shot “around the world,” according to Gen. John Hyten, the departing vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. “It went around the world, dropped off a hypersonic glide vehicle that glided all the way back to China, that impacted a target in China,” he told CBS News. When asked why China was developing this advanced technology, Gen. Hyten replied, “They look like a first-use weapon. That’s what those weapons look like to me.”

Hypersonic weapons don’t follow a single trajectory like ballistic missiles. They can twist and turn on their way to a target, while their incredibly high speeds—above Mach 5, or a mile a second—make it impossible for existing land- and space-based systems to detect a hypersonic attack until very late in the missile’s flight path. It also isn’t clear whether current U.S. command-and-control systems can process data fast enough to respond to a head-on hypersonic threat.

China tested a second nuclear-capable missile carrying a hypersonic glide vehicle on Aug. 13. This means that Beijing is surging ahead with a technology against which the U.S. has very limited capability for defense or detection.

The shame is that the U.S. has been the primary developer of hypersonic vehicles, going back to the X-15 program in the 1960s. According to Mike Griffin, a former undersecretary of defense for research and engineering, the U.S. effectively shut down its hypersonic effort in the mid-2010s—while China made hypersonics a Manhattan Project-level priority. As a result, Gen. Hyten told the website BreakingDefense.com in October, China has performed “hundreds” of tests of hypersonic weapons in the past five years, while the U.S. has conducted nine.

US military minds still stuck in Pearl Harbor mentality Eighty years after Japan’s surprise strike on Pearl Harbor, US is at risk of making the same mistakes vis-a-vis China David Goldman

https://asiatimes.com/2021/12/us-military-minds-still-stuck-in-pearl-harbor-mentality/

“What would Winston Churchill say?,” protested China hawk Michael Pillsbury when Michael Anton, a former national security official in the Trump administration, asked him what he would do if China sank a US aircraft carrier. I reported the exchange in a November 3 analysis, “Sleepwalkers in the South China Sea.”

More relevant is what Churchill actually said just before the war. Like most of the Allied leadership, Churchill refused to believe that Germany could bypass France’s Maginot Line, or that the Japanese could roll up British forces in Asia in a matter of weeks. Hitler and Hirohito both threw the British into the sea, respectively at Dunkirk and Singapore.

With 350 intermediate-range missile launchers and DF-21 and DF-26 ship-killer missiles, China can sink American carriers as surely as Japanese torpedo bombers sank Allied battleships in World War II.

Allied leaders refused to believe that battleships were sitting ducks. Churchill and his cabinet were mental giants compared to the counterinsurgency soldiers who now lead the American military, but they got it terribly wrong. The Americans now may do worse.

America’s Navy, predictably, wants more aircraft carriers. “When we think about how we might fight, it’s a large water space, and four aircraft carriers is a good number, but six, seven or eight would be better,” Seventh Fleet commander Admiral Karl Thomas said on November 30 after exercises in the Pacific.

Not a replacement for the aging Aegis anti-missile system that can’t protect American ships from Chinese missiles dropping from the stratosphere at Mach 10; not a space-based anti-ballistic missile system that could intercept such projectiles at launch; not a defense against Chinese and Russian hypersonic glide vehicles that can evade all existing anti-missile systems; not an alternative to American GPS and communications satellites, which Chinese or Russian lasers and missiles could disable in a matter of hours. Admiral Thomas wants more of the same century-old weapons platform that the Chinese have spent billions learning how to sink.

The idea is Churchillian, to be sure, but that is not necessarily a recommendation.

The US and the Iranian Octopus (part 2) Ambassador (Ret.) Yoram Ettinger

https://bit.ly/32WalHj

Since the 1978/79 revolution against the Shah of Iran, the Ayatollahs regime has adhered to its mega-goal of global Shite domination, developing mega-capabilities (nuclear, ballistic technologies and worldwide terrorism), aiming to remove/subordinate its mega-obstacle, the USA.

During 1962-1970, then anti-US Egypt was involved in the Yemen civil war, as a springboard to topple the pro-US regime in Saudi Arabia and, subsequently, all other pro-US Arab regimes in a most critical region to global trade, oil and security, the Arabian Peninsula.

Since 2011, Iran’s anti-US Ayatollahs are deeply involved in the Yemen civil war on the side of the anti-US Shite Houthis (“Soldiers of Allah”) – via Iranian and Hezbollah manpower, military supplies, training and intelligence – as a springboard to oust the pro-US Sunni House of Saud (bordering north Yemen), and subsequently, all other pro-US Sunni regimes in the Arabian Peninsula.

In February, 2021, the US removed Yemen’s Shite Houthis – who are Iran’s proxy – from the list of terrorist organizations, courted Iran’s rogue Ayatollahs, terminated US support of the pro-US Saudi military offensive against the anti-US Houthis, and pressured Saudi Arabia on account of human rights violations. However, in November, 2021, the Houthis stormed the US Embassy in Sanaa, holding a few of the local staff hostage, demonstrating – once again – that Islamic/Arab terrorists bite the hands that feed them.

Yemen’s geostrategic importance for the US

The limbs of the Iranian octopus extend from the Persian Gulf and Central Asia to the whole Middle East, Europe, Africa, South, Central and North America, including Yemen, where Iran’s Ayatollahs outflank the Persian Gulf, Arabian Sea, Indian Ocean and the Gulf of Aden, playing a decisive role in fueling the civil war, as a dagger aimed at its Sunni arch-rival, the pro-US Saudi Arabia.

America’s Enemies Fill the Vacuum She Leaves Abroad By Seth Cropsey & Harry Halem

https://www.nationalreview.com/2021/12/americas-enemies-fill-the-vacuum-she-leaves-abroad/

The oft-discussed Middle Eastern power vacuum does not exist. America’s adversaries have already filled it.

P resident Biden’s meeting with Xi Jinping on November 15 shifted media attention from COP26 back to great-power politics, but a more subtle, yet perhaps more consequential, shift has occurred over the past month. This shift is remarkable for its lack of American involvement — it presages a Middle Eastern regional transformation over which the United States will have little to no influence. Rather, Russia and increasingly China have become the region’s key external powers. The central question for both as they move forward will be the degree of Iranian expansionism they will accept.

On October 22, Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett met Russia’s maximum leader Vladimir Putin at the Black Sea resort city of Sochi. The meeting was critical for Bennett given his domestic political position. Prime Minister Bennett’s minority right-wing Yamina/New Right party holds only seven seats, compared to his coalition ally Yair Lapid’s 17. Moreover, the rest of the coalition is composed of numerous splinter, generally secular parties from left and right. Bennett will retain some control in 2023, when the premiership is scheduled to rotate to Lapid. But his numerical disadvantage bodes ill for his and his party’s long-term political prospects.

In the next election, one would expect Bennett to tilt back toward the Right, playing a key role in a center-Right coalition government to box out the secular Left, with which Yesh Atid aligns. Yet Bennett’s erstwhile ally and mentor, recently ousted prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, retains significant political power despite his ongoing corruption trial. Not only has Netanyahu emerged as Bennett’s fiercest critic — his policy criticisms have some substance. Bennett is a shrewd politician, having served in ministerial positions since 2013, and as defense minister from 2019 to 2020. But Netanyahu’s foreign-policy experience was a critical selling point for Likud voters, and a line of attack he has exploited since leaving office. Netanyahu claimed that his personal relationship with Putin gave Israel greater flexibility in Syria, allowing the IDF to conduct a long-term interdiction campaign against Iranian targets without sparking Russian resistance.

Biden Admin Waives Sanctions on Iran as Nuclear Talks Restart Critics accuse admin of ‘delivering a dressed-up Chanukah present to the regime’ Adam Kredo

https://freebeacon.com/national-security/biden-admin-waives-sanctions-on-iran-as-nuclear-talks-restart/

The Biden administration quietly waived sanctions on Iran to allow the hardline regime to sell electricity to Iraq, according to a non-public notification obtained by the Washington Free Beacon that was provided to Congress just as nuclear talks between the United States and Tehran resumed this week.

The timing of the waiver notification—which was signed Nov. 19 but not transmitted to Congress until Nov. 29, the day nuclear negotiations resumed—has prompted accusations the Biden administration is offering concessions to Tehran to generate goodwill as talks aimed at securing a revamped version of the 2015 nuclear deal restart following a months-long standoff.

During the several-month pause, Tehran increased its nuclear program, including the enrichment of uranium and installation of advanced nuclear centrifuges. One senior congressional source familiar with the matter said the delay in transmitting the waiver to Congress indicates the administration is sensitive to the optics of waving sanctions just as negotiations resume.

Richard Goldberg, the former director for countering Iranian weapons of mass destruction on Trump’s White House National Security Council, told the Washington Free Beacon that the latest electricity waiver amounts to a “dressed-up Chanukah present to” Iran.

Rogues Are on the March Around the World Iran and Russia give every sign they don’t take President Biden seriously.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/rogues-are-on-the-march-russia-kremlin-ukraine-putin-iran-nuclear-putin-xi-china-biden-11638724476?mod=hp_opin_pos_3#cxrecs_s

If you think President Biden has trouble at home, take a look at what’s happening around the world. Iran, Russia and China are all seeking to establish new regional hegemony, and they’re often working together to do it. Their leaders don’t appear to believe Mr. Biden can or will do anything to stop them.

Iran revealed its disdain for U.S. entreaties last week as nuclear talks resumed in Vienna. The U.S. opened the proceedings with a sanctions waiver to let Iran sell electricity to Iraq. The result? A senior U.S. official conceded Saturday, after the latest round of talks finished, that Iran had shown no willingness to slow its uranium enrichment and even walked back its agreements from previous rounds.

U.S. and European officials briefed the press about Iran’s intransigence but seemed at a loss about how to respond. The Iranians are “continuing to accelerate their nuclear program in particularly provocative ways,” a U.S. official told the press on background, and their “latest provocation” was preparing “for the doubling of their production capacity of 20% enriched uranium” at its secret Fordow facility.

Sounds serious. So what is the U.S. prepared to do? It will beg Iran some more to return to the table with a better attitude.

“The world is prepared to support a mutual return to compliance by both sides. The world is prepared even to engage economically with Iran and diplomatically with Iran. But for that, Iran has to show seriousness at the table and be prepared to come back in short order in compliance with the deal,” the U.S. official said. Pleading with Iran to do what it has already refused to do will reinforce the view in Tehran that it will pay no price if it keeps enriching uranium until it gets to the brink of having a bomb.