Displaying posts categorized under

FOREIGN POLICY

Time to take advantage of cracks in Tehran’s armor By Ruthie Blum 

https://www.jpost.com/opinion/time-to-take-advantage-of-cracks-in-tehrans-armor-opinion-675992

There’s nothing new about the powers-that-be in Tehran speaking out of both sides of their mouths, particularly when switching from Farsi to other languages. The only “novelty” was the inauguration on Tuesday – and swearing-in before the Majlis on Thursday – of Ebraim Raisi as Iran’s eighth president, replacing Hassan Rouhani in the role that he’s held since 2013.

Though it remains to be seen how Raisi “The Butcher” handles the predicament currently confronting the Islamic Republic, it’s safe to say that one way in which he’ll toe the ayatollahs’ line is to rule with an iron fist while lying about it for international consumption.

Indeed, as Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s hand-picked victor in the staged June 18 “election,” Raisi is certain to hit the ground running where attempting to quash the countrywide protests that have been plaguing his country for the past few weeks is concerned.
Nor is there any doubt that he’ll continue his predecessors’ tradition of pinning the blame for the public’s dire economic straits on the United States and Israel – the former for “crippling sanctions,” and the latter for aggression.

At this juncture, however, the Iranian people are so fed up with their plight at the hands of the regime that they’re no longer willing to be fed the propaganda. They want actual sustenance in the form of food on the table and water in the tap, both of which are running as scarce as electricity.

The fact that their slogans at mass demonstrations include calls for Khamenei’s death means that they no longer fear the torturous punishment that befalls Iranian dissidents. Their denunciations of the government’s funding of Palestinian terrorism, let alone its bankrolling ballistic missiles and nuclear warheads, indicates that they have become emboldened by the sense that they have nothing left to lose

THE TROUBLE is that what they have to gain could easily be thwarted by fantasists in Washington. Yes, the administration of US President Joe Biden incredibly refuses to abandon its notion that a return to some form of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – the nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1 countries from which former president Donald Trump withdrew in 2018 – is the way to curb the threat from Tehran.

Biden Administration “Surrenders” to Germany on Russian Gas Pipeline by Soeren Kern

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/17603/germany-russia-nord-stream-biden-administration

“The willingness of the administration to make decisions of this magnitude without consulting the countries most exposed will not be lost on other parts of the world. Jerusalem and Riyadh, for example, are no doubt already strategizing around the potential of facing a surprise similar to the one that Washington just delivered to Warsaw and Kyiv.” — Kiron Skinner and Russell Berman, Foreign Policy, July 26, 2021.

“The lesson learned by Germany is that it can pursue its own inclinations of doing business with dictators regardless of principles and with no consequences from Washington. More dangerously, the lesson for Moscow and Beijing is that sanctions for international aggression will never be sustained for very long. The Biden administration has made the fragile international order even less secure.” — Kiron Skinner and Russell Berman, Foreign Policy, July 26, 2021.

“The project creates conditions for Russia’s escalation of military aggression against Ukraine, as well as the continuation of a hybrid war against the EU and NATO…. This Russian pipeline threatens the national security not only of Ukraine, but also of all of Europe.” — Ukrainian Parliament, July 21, 2021.

“The U.S.-German deal is embarrassingly weak. It relies on a vague assurance that after Putin ramps up the blackmail enabled by the deal, Germany will take unspecified actions in response…. Overall, Biden handed Putin the biggest gift he’s received in years. He also signaled to Putin that when push comes to shove, the American president is weak and will bow to political pressure.” — U.S. Senator Ted Cruz, Washington Examiner, July 22, 2021.

“Remarkably, Washington agreed to end its opposition to the project without any recognizable benefit in exchange: Merkel has neither promised increased engagement for NATO nor more clarity about China. The compromise between Biden and Merkel is not a compromise at all, but an American capitulation.” — Robin Alexander, Die Welt, July 21, 2021.

The Biden administration has reached an agreement with German Chancellor Angela Merkel that allows for the completion of a controversial natural gas pipeline between Russia and Germany.

The July 21 deal to complete the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which would double shipments of Russian natural gas to Germany by transporting the gas under the Baltic Sea, has angered the leaders of many countries in Eastern and Western Europe; they argue that it will effectively give Moscow a stranglehold over European gas supplies and open the continent to Russian blackmail.

Both the Obama and Trump administrations steadfastly opposed the pipeline on the grounds that, once completed, it would strengthen Russian President Vladimir Putin’s economic and political influence over Europe.

The Trump administration was especially critical of the pipeline because it will funnel billions of dollars to Russia at a time that Germany is free-riding on the U.S. defense umbrella that protects Germany from that same Russia.

League of Appeasement: How the West Fails To Take Action on Iran Benny Avni

https://www.nysun.com/foreign/league-of-appeasement-how-the-west-fails-to-take/91603/

If ever there were a cause for “collective response,” Iran’s deadly attack on a commercial carrier navigating the busy shipping lanes of an oil-rich region is it — unless, of course, that phrase means no response at all.

On April 2, 1917, in a speech to Congress, President Wilson cited repeated German violations of the principle of “Freedom of the Seas” as casus belli, justifying America’s entry into the European blood-letting later known as World War I.

After that war was won, Wilson went on to promote the establishment of the League of Nations, an unconstitutional, ill-fated attempt to forge a collective global response to threats against world peace.

Zoom forward to last Thursday night, when a Romanian captain and a British security officer aboard the Mercer Street were killed in a drone attack in the Persian Gulf, off the shores of Oman. The Liberian-flagged tanker is operated by Zodiac, a company listed in Britain and owned by Eyal Offer, an Israeli billionaire.

An Iranian website initially reported the attack was retaliation for an Israeli air attack on Iranian targets in Syria, but officials in Iran later denied responsibility. Nevertheless, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said Israel possesses irrefutable evidence of Iran’s culpability.

Soon after, Secretary of State Blinken and Britain’s foreign minister, Dominic Raab, also stated Iran was responsible. These allies will launch a “collective response,” Mr. Blinken ominously declared Monday.

Yet before the collective concluded its deliberations over what course of coordinated action it should take collectively, Iran seemed to unilaterally escalate. Earlier today the British navy reported a “potential hijacking” of a ship off the United Arab Emirates’ coast. Additionally, four oil tankers reported loss of control over their Automatic Identification System tracker.

The Iranian news agency IRNA immediately denied Tehran was involved in those attacks, and the country even offered its assistance.

Israel’s foreign and defense ministers reportedly plan to brief diplomats of the United Nations Security Council tomorrow on the Mercer Street evidence. That indicates a Security Council response. Expect Russia, China and others to demand an investigation by the world body before any collective action is taken.

Meanwhile, the White House press secretary, Jen Psaki, said Monday that Washington remains engaged in talks aimed at reviving the articles of appeasement on the nuclear deal. “Our view,” she said, “is that every single challenge and threat we face from Iran would be made more pronounced and dangerous by an unconstrained nuclear program.”

Biden Administration Takes Side of Russia, Syria, Iran, Hezbollah Against Israel Betraying an ally that has done more than any other to combat terrorism. Hugh Fitzgerald

https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/2021/08/biden-administration-takes-side-russia-s

Israel has for years been able to bomb targets in Syria virtually at will. These include Iranian bases, where precision-guided weapons are both assembled and made ready for delivery to Hezbollah, and Hezbollah bases which take delivery of these weapons and take them back to Lebanon. In hundreds of missions over Syria, Israeli planes have successfully avoided being hit; and the Syrian and Iranian defenses have proved unequal to the task of intercepting Israeli missiles.

Until now.

The latest report on Russian missile systems being transferred to Syria is here: “Report: Russia helping Syria thwart Israeli attacks,” by Neta Bar and Shahar Klaiman, Israel Hayom, July 25, 2021:

Russia assisted Syria’s aerial defense system in thwarting an Israeli attack near the city of Homs in western Syria, a senior Russian military official said Saturday.

Rear Adm. Vadim Kulit, who heads the Russian military’s Reconciliation Center in Syria, was quoted by Russia’s state-owned TASS news agency as saying Russia’s advanced BUK-M2E missile system intercepted eight missiles fired by Israeli F-16 jets.

Having had free rein in Syrian skies for so long, Israeli pilots now confront a different, much more difficult landscape: a Russian advanced missile system, the BUK-M2E, that has apparently managed, in its first day of use, to intercept eight Israeli missiles fired at targets in Homs.

Experts have questioned the Russian-manufactured system’s ability to intercept advanced guided missiles. In addition, images and video of explosions on the ground in Homs alongside reports in media outlets affiliated with rebels in the area of the destruction of weapons warehouses indicate the airstrikes attributed to Israel hit their targets.

The Russians may have intercepted eight missiles, but it sounds as if other missiles did indeed get through, the evidence being both the videos of explosions on the ground and reports, from the Syrian opposition on the ground, of weapons warehouses having been destroyed.

Nonetheless, it remains to be seen just how effective in the long run that Russian BUK missile system turns out to be against seasoned Israeli pilots and their precision-guided missiles. If their past behavior is any guide, the Israelis are quick learners, able to adjust their own techniques; they may have technology up their sleeve that was not necessary to use before but now will be brought into play. No one ever made money betting against the ability of Israeli pilots, planes, and missiles to rise to any challenge.

A Russian source told the London-based pan-Arab newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat Moscow had already begun to aid the Assad regime in “closing off Syrian airspace to Israeli planes.”

Afghan Withdrawal Opens the Way for China by Con Coughlin

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/17565/afghanistan-withdrawal-china

China, which shares a tiny 47-mile-long border with Afghanistan, has long coveted developing closer ties with Kabul, not least because of the large, untapped reserves of mineral wealth that Afghanistan possesses.

Rich in copper, lithium, marble, gold and uranium, Afghanistan’s mineral wealth has been estimated to exceed in excess of $1 trillion….

Beijing already enjoys good relations with neighbouring Pakistan, where the country’s charismatic prime minister, Imran Khan, was once dubbed “Taliban Khan” for supporting the Islamist movement.

As part of Beijing’s efforts to deepen and broaden its ties in Central Asia, Beijing is also concentrating its efforts on expanding its influence in Afghanistan, a policy it expects will bear fruit if the Taliban achieve their goal of seizing control of the entire country.

Mr Biden, judging by his spirited defence of his decision to withdraw US forces from Afghanistan, clearly believes that it is in America’s interests to end its two-decade-long involvement in the country. But if the US withdrawal simply opens the way for China to become the new dominant power in Afghanistan, then Mr Biden will be responsible for causing, so far as the West is concerned, a strategic disaster of epic proportions.

The indecent haste with which the Biden administration has undertaken its military withdrawal from Afghanistan not only raises the prospect of handing control of the country over to the hardline Islamist Taliban movement. It also presents China with a golden opportunity to extend its influence over this strategically important Central Asian country.

China, which shares a tiny 47-mile-long border with Afghanistan, has long coveted developing closer ties with Kabul, not least because of the large, untapped reserves of mineral wealth that Afghanistan possesses.

Rich in copper, lithium, marble, gold and uranium, Afghanistan’s mineral wealth has been estimated to exceed in excess of $1 trillion, resources that could easily make the country economically self-sufficient if ever they were to be fully developed.

From China’s perspective, access to Afghanistan’s mineral riches would provide it with a ready supply of valuable minerals that are deemed vital to the ruling Communist party’s long-term aim of becoming the world’s pre-eminent economic power.

The ‘Hotel California’ doctrine of US military intervention By Michael Rich

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2021/07/the_hotel_california_doctrine_of_us_military_intervention.html

It is easy to remember why the United States invaded Afghanistan.  Our country had just been attacked by terrorists based there.  The nation was united in a desire to protect itself from further attacks and bring the parties responsible to justice.

It’s not so easy to remember whether the justification for the invasion was based on a broader policy, whether there was discussion at the time of what would constitute victory, or whether the invasion was an actual war in the traditional sense.  More to the point, it’s unclear whether those questions have answers today, even as we exit Afghanistan.

I’ve read several articles written by people with a ton more knowledge than I have about whether our country should stay in Afghanistan or leave.  A lot of the writers had personal experience fighting in Afghanistan.  The opinions they offer differ, with some arguing to stay and others arguing to leave.  The positions of Trump and Biden seem to be aligned on the side of leave, which is remarkable, given how much else they disagree on.

As an average citizen, I supported the decision to invade.  Like most people, the attacks scared the daylights out of me, and I was riled up more than at any other time in my life.  I suspect that our leaders were at least in part reacting to the zeitgeist as much as, or possibly more than they were thinking about the end game.

At this point, I don’t presume to know the correct answer on the stay or leave question, though I could make a solid argument for either course of action.  Stay: The situation in Afghanistan could quickly return to pre-9/11 conditions and again become a haven for terrorists plotting to attack us.  Leave: There’s nothing more to do in Afghanistan that would justify expending more blood and treasure than we already have, and we need to rely on Homeland Security and the “Intelligence Community” to defend ourselves from future terrorist attacks.  You can add in arguments about the positive or negative impacts on Afghanis from either point of view.  On this count, most people would acknowledge that leaving is going to hurt the segment of the Afghani population who want to avoid a return to the tender mercies of the Taliban, including and especially women.

Biden’s stupidest mistake By Frank Friday

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2021/07/bidens_stupidest_mistake.html

You can’t say Joe Biden hasn’t been busy in the months since he took office. Like most great artists, Biden is prolific. The medium he works in, of course, is stupid mistakes, and he cranks out new ones every day. It is hard to say exactly which one is stupidest of all — like determining which Rembrandt painting or Beethoven symphony is the best.

The current open-the-borders-but-blame-it-all-somehow-on-Trump policy may be the most consequential. I would estimate this will lead to at least 5 million Central American paupers in the USA before Slow Joe finishes his term.

But maybe the ugliest and most humiliating stupidity is happening right now with the Afghanistan pullout, the one and only Trump idea Biden wants to follow through with — although I think Pres. Trump was having second thoughts.

The U.S. achieved mastery over the Taliban years ago. Since 2016, only a handful of our soldiers have been lost there, none last year. While the U.S. military on a global basis loses about 1000 servicemen every year to routine accidents and training mistakes.

At this point, having spent so much blood and treasure to pacify the country, why are we in such a hurry to pull out the 3,000 or so soldiers training and advising the government forces? Forces that seem willing to keep doing their own fighting and dying if we give them just a small bit of assistance.

If we completely pull out and demoralize the Afghans, I think they fold up and quit. The aftermath will be a bloody disgrace, something like the Fall of Saigon in 1975 and the original Afghan fiasco the British Retreat from Kabul in 1842. 

In Afghan Peace Talks, the Taliban Gain Legitimacy While Pursuing War Drawn-out negotiations in Doha risk turning into a trap, Afghanistan officials warn

https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-afghan-peace-talks-the-taliban-gain-legitimacy-while-pursuing-war-11625584192

DOHA, Qatar—Taliban representatives and Afghan government delegates meet every few days at a beachfront Ritz-Carlton resort and spa here, the unhurried pace of their peace talks sharply contrasting with the raging war back home.

In recent weeks, the insurgents have seized nearly a third of Afghanistan’s rural districts and besieged several provincial capitals, taking advantage of the withdrawal of American forces that is nearing completion.

The Doha negotiations, launched last September, were meant to find a peaceful settlement to the four-decades long Afghan war. Now, they risk becoming a mechanism through which the Taliban could legitimize their recent military victories, gaining international approval for an eventual takeover, Afghan government representatives warn.

“The delays that we see from the other side in the progress of talks are not corresponding to the sense of urgency that we have. The violence needs to end, the war needs to end, and we need to reach a political settlement,” said senior government negotiator Nader Nadery, who heads Afghanistan’s civil service commission. “Are they hoping to take over militarily, and then to give it some sort of cover, to say ‘Oh, we are talking in Doha?’ We are aware of these traps.”

The Taliban agreed to sit down for negotiations with representatives of President Ashraf Ghani’s government and other major political forces in Kabul as part of the February 2020 deal between the insurgent group and the Trump administration to pull out all American forces from the country.

President Biden’s decision in April to implement the U.S. military departure without any preconditions about progress toward a peace deal has removed the main leverage to convince the Taliban to make concessions. Only several hundred U.S. troops still remain in Afghanistan, mostly at and near the U.S. Embassy in Kabul, following last week’s closure of the Bagram air base, the centerpiece of the 20-year American war effort there.

What is China Buying in the Biden Administration? by Peter Schweizer

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/17518/china-biden-administration

The simple fact is that there are large, powerful donors to the Biden campaign that have big financial stakes in these green energy companies. It is a wealth transfer to Biden’s biggest bundlers, and that is a huge and massive problem.

For those companies with inside connections to the Biden campaign, it is American taxpayer money that is truly “shovel-ready.”

Former congressmen and senators, and former US ambassadors are being paid large sums of money by governments such as China, or by firms directly linked to those governments, which do not have America’s best interest at heart. They are lobbying in Washington to get their paymasters’ voices heard.

If you invest a couple of million dollars, let us say, in lobbying, or you invest a couple of million dollars in campaign contributions, often you can get benefits that are worth ten times that.

For Wall Street and Silicon Valley, the prospect of doing deals in China is mesmerizing. To do those deals in China, as they have learned, you must play nice with the regime, speak well of them, feather their nests…. It is no less tempting for American politicians….Of greatest concern are the deals that actually advance Chinese state interests.

There is no other way to state this. The only way we can correct this situation is by exposing these people and showing U.S. citizens exactly what they are doing in our society.

[J]ust before the 2020 election, the [New York Times ran a piece by its “media reporter” bragging about their role as gatekeepers that would not pursue the Hunter Biden story.

What is China buying in the Biden Administration? A look to the recent past may provide some answers.

If you go back to 2009-10 and look at the “shovel-ready” stimulus package that President Barack Obama pushed through, as most people now know, there were huge amounts of money in the form of direct grants and loan guarantees that went to Solyndra and other “green energy” companies that failed. Yet, the question remained: Where did all that taxpayer money go for green energy?

If you trace it, you will find that 80 percent of that money went to green energy companies that were owned by individuals who sat on Barack Obama’s Finance Committee for his 2008 campaign.

Now that Obama’s former VP is president, another infrastructure package will include plenty of expenditures for more green schemes. Whether they work or whether they will simply raise our energy prices, the simple fact is that there are large, powerful donors to the Biden campaign that have big financial stakes in these green energy companies. It is a wealth transfer to Biden’s biggest bundlers, and that is a huge and massive problem. For those companies with inside connections to the Biden campaign, it is American taxpayer money that is truly “shovel-ready.”

Biden Revives Obama’s Middle East Policy U.S. “evenhandedness” is back in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Joseph Puder

https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/2021/07/president-bidens-return-obamas-middle-east-policy-joseph-puder/

President Joe Biden is of a generation that appreciated the Jewish state as America’s closest and most reliable Middle East ally. He and the likes of the late U.S. Senator Henry “Scoop” Jackson (D-WA) were staunch friends of Israel. Most Democrats in the U.S. Senate shared with Jackson and Biden their appreciation of Israel. Today however, the “progressive” wing of the Democrat party no longer shares that kind of appreciation, and support for the Jewish state. Six months into his presidency, Biden has been under pressure from the “progressives” to be tougher on Israel. Many in that “wing” have not forgiven Israel’s former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for standing up for his people in the U.S. Congress against the weak nuclear deal with Iran. A nuclear Iran poses an existential threat to the Jewish state and its people. Now that Israel has a new Bennett-Lapid government that is leaning a bit more to the left, it is hoped in Jerusalem that Biden will give serious consideration to the mistakes made by the Obama administration in dealing with Iran, and the shortcomings of the 2015 nuclear deal.

The Obama administration, (in which Biden served as Vice President) displayed too much eagerness to reach a deal with the radical Ayatollahs. Although Obama declared that “all options are on the table,” he never intended to use the military option, and the Ayatollahs of Iran recognized it. As a result, the Iranians toughened their positions, and were able to extract many concessions in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). These included restrictions on the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) from observing and monitoring a number of nuclear sites, and in particular military sites. It enabled the Islamic Republic of Iran to develop and produce ballistic missiles that will eventually have long-range capabilities with the possibility of reaching the U.S. The Iranian regime was cheating all along, and working secretly on producing a nuclear bomb. A nuclear device, along with a long-range ballistic missile, would be able to threaten and intimidate the US, and certainly fulfill their vows to “wipe Israel off the map.”

The JCPOA deal ignored Iran’s malignant actions in the region in seeking to bring down the Sunni-Arab regimes, including those in the Gulf States. Additionally, Iran’s military interventions by proxies, and directed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, was ignored. As president, Biden has removed Iran’s proxy — the Houti (Shiite) rebels in Yemen from the list of terrorist organizations. This was clearly a way to warm up to Iran. He also ended U.S. support for the Saudi-led bombing campaign, which aims to restore the legitimate government in Yemen. This has encouraged the Houtis and their Iranian paymasters to increase their attacks inside Yemen, and against Saudi Arabia.

For a second time since assuming office, President Biden retaliated against the pro-Iranian Iraqi militia that fired missiles into a US base in Iraq, seeking to carry out Iran’s policy of removing the US presence in the region. To fulfill Iran’s aims, Biden ordered the reduction of U.S. forces in the Gulf. At the same time, Biden administration officials leaked to the media the details of the Israeli attacks on Iranian ships, including the attack on an IRGC intelligence gathering vessel. Israel, it should be said, attacked the Iranian vessels in retaliation for previous Iranian bombing of Israeli-owned commercial vessels in the Gulf.