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FOREIGN POLICY

Biden Needs to Handle the Turkey Dossier with Utmost Care by Burak Bekdil

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/17098/biden-turkey-relations

Erdoğan is waiting for an opportunity to “persuade” Biden that his Islamist regime is in fact a staunch ally of the Western civilization.

What Erdoğan diplomatically refers to as “common interests” are in reality a list of Turkish demands: 1) Remove Turkey from the CAATSA list. 2) Allow Turkey to activate its Russian-made air defense architecture. 3) Ignore the Turkish public bank’s role in violating U.S. sanctions on Iran. 4) End the U.S. alliance with Syrian Kurds and allow Turkey to crush them. 5) Praise, do not criticize, Turkey’s democratic record.

An aggressive overt and covert Turkish lobbying campaign in Washington will soon begin. As a first sign, Turkey has hired a Washington-based law firm, Arnold & Porter, to lobby for its readmission to the F-35 program. Under the six-month, $750,000 contract, Arnold & Porter will “advise on a strategy for [the Turkish defense procurement agency] and Turkish contractors to remain within the Joint Strike Fighter Program….

Three U.S. presidential administrations encouraged Erdoğan recklessly to harm Western interests and further destroy whatever pieces of democracy were left in his own country by allowing him to maintain his transactional relationship with the U.S. rather than weakening his regime.

Biden now has a chance to stop and even reverse that unpleasant chapter in modern Turkish history.

U.S. President Joe Biden’s two predecessors, Donald Trump and Barack Obama, made the same mistake, though for different reasons. They both mishandled Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his increasingly Islamization of Turkey’s secular lifestyle, education system, politics and institutions. Obama apparently hoped that Turkey’s post-modern Islamists could be an example to less-democratic Islamic regimes in the Middle East. Trump, on the other hand, seemed not to care if his pro-Erdoğan overtures emboldened Turkey’s Islamist strongman and simultaneously weakened the NATO ally’s ties with the West and Western institutions.

In a 2010 interview with the Italian daily, Corriere della Sera, Obama referred to Turkey as a “great Muslim democracy.”

“The U.S. always expressed the opinion that it would be wise to accept Turkey into the European Union,” he said. In a 2012 Time interview, Obama named Erdoğan as one of the five world leaders with whom he had the strongest bonds. In 2011, Tom Donilon, the president’s former national security advisor, said that Obama regarded Erdoğan as “a man of principle, and also a man of action.” When Obama became conscious of his strategic mistake, it was too late. Jeffrey Goldberg wrote in The Atlantic’s April 2016 issue:

“Early on, Obama saw Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the president of Turkey, as the sort of moderate Muslim leader who would bridge the divide between East and West—but Obama now considers him a failure and an authoritarian…”

Despite irrefutable evidence that Iran (through helping it evade sanctions) and Russia (through purchasing its S-400 defense system) mattered more to Turkey than Western interests, Trump took over the Erdoğan enthusiasm from Obama. Amid the stand-off over Turkey’s military incursion into northern Syria in 2019, Trump hailed Erdoğan as a “hell of a leader, a tough man.”

The Hole in Biden’s China Strategy: Central Asia Both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan could help the U.S. combat Beijing and advance human rights. By Kamran Bokhari

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-hole-in-bidens-china-strategy-central-asia-11615934414?mod=opinion_lead_pos7

The brewing competition between the U.S. and China is the defining conflict of the 21st century. The White House’s recent Interim National Security Strategic Guidance Document, crafted to convey President Biden’s vision for how America will engage with the world, is all about the U.S. vs. China. Yet it fails to mention the region where America has its lightest footprint on the planet: Central Asia.

China is building a land bridge to Europe and the Middle East that runs through Central Asia. The new administration will have to account for the region in its strategic thinking if it hopes to re-engage the world after four years of President Trump’s “America First” policy.

The low priority that Mr. Biden’s team assigns to Central Asia is a legacy of successive administrations dating to the 1991 implosion of the Soviet Union. The U.S. has since engaged Central Asia, but only in a tactical or transactional manner. Take the 2015 establishment of the C5+1. This U.S.-run diplomatic forum has continued to be the channel through which Washington distributes aid to and organizes meetings between the five Central Asian states: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. But it hasn’t brought Washington anywhere close to being able to compete with Beijing and Moscow in the region.

Thirty years since the U.S. gained access to Central Asia, long tucked away in the Kremlin’s shadow, it is time to develop a broader strategy for the region—one that takes into consideration the rapidly evolving geopolitics in Eurasia, as Beijing seeks to fill the vacuum created by Russia’s receding influence.

U.S. Outreach to North Korea Has Gone Unanswered, White House Says Biden administration has sought a dialogue on Pyongyang’s nuclear-weapons and ballistic-missile programs

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-outreach-to-north-korea-has-gone-unanswered-white-house-says-11615835288

The Biden administration has reached out to North Korea to launch a dialogue on Pyongyang’s nuclear-weapons and ballistic-missile programs but has yet to receive a response, the White House said Monday.

“Our goal is to reduce the risk of escalation. But to date, we have not received any response,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki said. “Diplomacy continues to remain our first priority.”

Ms. Psaki didn’t explain how the Biden administration had tried to contact North Korea nor spell out what its message had been. The administration is currently conducting a review of its policy toward North Korea, which may be completed in coming weeks.

The U.S. has a number of ways to reach out to Pyongyang, including contact through North Korea’s mission to the United Nations, use of an intelligence channel the Obama administration established for sensitive communications with North Korea, and messages through Sweden, the U.S.’s “protecting power” in the country.

Washington and Pyongyang haven’t held nuclear talks since October 2019. The negotiations are held up over U.S. demands that North Korea give up its nuclear weapons program and long-range missiles in return for relief from U.S. sanctions.

Ms. Psaki said the administration has continued to engage with allies in Japan and South Korea as it crafts its own policy toward the region. She added that the U.S. hasn’t had an “active dialogue” with North Korea for more than a year.

Attention President Biden: Yemen’s Houthi Rebels are Iranian-backed Terrorists by Con Coughlin

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/17165/yemen-houthi-rebels-terrorists

[T]he Houthis have also used the sophisticated weaponry they have received from Iran, such as drones and ballistic missiles, to broaden the conflict into neighbouring Saudi Arabia, which is leading the coalition military campaign to re-establish Yemen’s democratically-elected government.

[US sanctions were] promptly denounced by humanitarian and aid agencies, which claimed that designating the Houthis as terrorists would impede the global effort to help Yemen’s starving population, an argument that appears perverse as the Houthis control most of the key aid supply routes, and regularly steal aid supplies to sell on the black market and fund their terrorist operations.

So far this month the Houthis have launched more than 20 drone and missile attacks against predominantly civilian targets in Saudi Arabia. In the most high profile attack, the Houthis used an explosive-laden drone and a ballistic missile against the Saudi petroleum plant at Ras Tanura, prompting global oil prices to rise above $70 a barrel earlier this week, its highest in more than a year.

Mr Biden has indicated he is keen to revive the controversial nuclear deal with Iran and, by easing the pressure on the Houthis, whose success on the battlefield is entirely due to the weapons and support they receive from Tehran, the White House was hoping to send a message to Iran that it was serious about having a constructive dialogue with Tehran. Instead, in the weeks since Mr Biden lifted the FTO, the region has seen a significant increase in Houthi activity.

[B]y helping to facilitate these attacks by providing the Houthis with sophisticated weapons, Tehran is showing that, far from seeking improved relations with the new US administration, it remains committed to pursuing an uncompromising policy of aggression throughout the Middle East, one that is unlikely to result in the resumption of talks on the problematic issue of Iran’s nuclear programme anytime soon.

US President Joe Biden has good reason to regret his hasty decision to remove the terrorist designation applied to the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen after they responded to his act of benevolence by unleashing a fresh wave of attacks in the Middle East.

The Houthis and their Iranian backers are primarily responsible for starting Yemen’s long and bitter civil war after they overthrew the democratically-elected government of Yemeni President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi in 2014.

Apart from helping to create what the UN has called the world’s worst humanitarian disaster, the Houthis have also used the sophisticated weaponry they have received from Iran, such as drones and ballistic missiles, to broaden the conflict into neighbouring Saudi Arabia, which is leading the coalition military campaign to re-establish Yemen’s democratically-elected government.

The whole of the Middle East will pay the price for Biden’s Iran appeasement policy Empowering Iran will come at the expense of not only Saudi Arabia – but at the expense of Iraqis, Lebanese, Syrians and Yemenis by Mohammed Khalid Alyahya

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/saudi-arabia-biden-iran-yemen-houthi-attacks-b1816509.html

Since the Biden administration’s decision to reverse the designation of Yemen’s Houthi militia as a foreign terrorist organisation (FTO) on February 12, drones and ballistic missiles have targeted Saudi Arabia 48 times.

The latest attack, on Saudi oil facilities in Ras Tanura, in Saudi Arabia’s eastern province, on Sunday, did not come from the direction of Yemen, a royal court adviser told the Wall Street Journal; declining to comment on whether the projectile was launched from Iran or from Iraq.

The removal of the Houthis from the US government’s FTO list was meant to reduce tensions, but it achieved the opposite result. At the heart of the Biden administration’s Middle East policy is a fallacy: that the region’s politics should be understood as a contest between Saudi Arabia and Iran, a conflict between two states that is also a sectarian struggle.

Seen from Tehran, the central contest in the region is between the American alliance system and Iran’s self-styled “resistance alliance”.

Biden’s misconception leads to a number of erroneous ideas: that the United States can play a neutral, mediating role between Riyadh and Tehran; that by distancing itself from Saudi Arabia, it creates opportunities for regional stability and understanding; and that it is the Saudi role in Yemen – and not the Iranian role – that has perpetuated the conflict in that country.

Opportunity Beckons in the Mideast The Biden administration called Iran’s bluff early. It should continue to play the strong hand it was dealt. Jared Kushner

https://www.wsj.com/articles/opportunity-beckons-in-the-mideast-11615750526?mod=opinion_lead_pos5

The geopolitical earthquake that began with the Abraham Accords hasn’t ended. More than 130,000 Israelis have visited Dubai since President Trump hosted the peace deal’s signing this past September, and air travel opened up for the first time in August. New, friendly relations are flowering—wait until direct flights get going between Israel and Morocco. We are witnessing the last vestiges of what has been known as the Arab-Israeli conflict.

The conflict’s roots stretch back to the years after World War II, when Arab leaders refused to accept the creation of the state of Israel and spent 70 years vilifying it and using it to divert attention from domestic shortcomings. But as more Muslims visit Israel through Dubai, images are populating on social media of Jews and Muslims proudly standing together. More important, Muslims are posting pictures of peaceful visits to the Al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, blowing a hole in the propaganda that the holy site is under attack and Israelis prevent Muslims from praying there. Every time Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu tweets something positive in Arabic about an Arab leader, it reinforces that Israel is rooting for the success of the Arab world.

One of the reasons the Arab-Israeli conflict persisted for so long was the myth that it could be solved only after Israel and the Palestinians resolved their differences. That was never true. The Abraham Accords exposed the conflict as nothing more than a real-estate dispute between Israelis and Palestinians that need not hold up Israel’s relations with the broader Arab world. It will ultimately be resolved when both sides agree on an arbitrary boundary line.

The Iran Deal’s Inevitable Sequel Barack Obama’s plan was never about stopping Iran from obtaining a bomb. It was about realigning American interests in the Middle East in order to remake the Democratic Party at home. Lee Smith

https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/iran-deal-inevitable-sequel

Joe Biden’s commitment to reenter the Iran nuclear deal from which Donald Trump withdrew might strike observers as bizarre. After all, Barack Obama’s July 2015 agreement, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was an expensive and comprehensive failure whose underlying premises have been shown over the past six years to be false. By contrast, Trump’s policy of returning to traditional regional alliance structures—boosting allies and deterring enemies—was a success. The United States entered no new Middle East wars and Iran didn’t build a bomb, despite supposedly being “months” or “weeks” away from a nuclear breakout during Obama’s second term in the White House.

But facts- and results-based analysis misses the main purpose of the JCPOA, which had nothing to do with preventing Iran from building nuclear weapons. Rather, the agreement guaranteed Iran the money and technology it needs to build a bomb while putting Iran’s nuclear program under the protective umbrella of an international agreement guaranteed by the United States. The purpose of the JCPOA, in other words, was to put the nuclear issue in brackets by giving the Iranians a bomb that they were manifestly unable to build on their own—and, in doing so, to remove the obstacle that prevented Obama from realigning American regional interests with those of the revolutionary regime.

None of this should be remotely surprising to anyone who has read the plain text of the deal, and who understands it in its regional context rather than in the context of America’s domestic political wars. What I learned over the course of nearly a decade reporting on the deal, its causes and its effects was that all the elaborate technical talk that was endlessly bandied about by “experts”—centrifuge arrays and stockpiles of enriched uranium, etc.—was simple persiflage, intended to distract attention from the underlying purpose of these arrangements, which was to dump America’s current Middle East allies in favor of Iran.

PREDICTING US/CHINA BACKING AWAY FROM WAR DAVID GOLDMAN

Washington and Beijing appear to have stepped back from the brink of tech war, and a breakthrough in US-China relations now seems possible after four years of trade and military tensions between the world’s two largest economies.

Chinese official sources told journalists Tuesday that Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Xi Jinping’s foreign policy advisor Yang Jiechi might meet with their American counterparts in Anchorage, Alaska, to reopen high-level communications with the United States.

The proposed Anchorage meeting was first reported by the South China Morning Post. There was no formal confirmation, but neither was the report denied. Global Times editor Hu Xijin tweeted that he hoped the news was true.

The report of a prospective reset of Sino-American relations follows a week of worry over a possible tech war between the United States and China, after Microsoft accused Chinese hackers with ties to the government of infiltrating tens of thousands of US email servers.

The hacker group dubbed “Hafnium” by Microsoft is “assessed to be state-sponsored and operating out of China, based on observed victimology, tactics and procedures,” the software giant wrote in a blog post. The US National Security Council formed a task force under Deputy National Security Advisor Anne Neuberger to counter the threat.

Biden Abandons Middle East Peace Empowering the PLO and Iran. Caroline Glick

https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/2021/03/biden-abandons-middle-east-peace-caroline-glick/

The Trump administration was on the verge of securing a peace agreement between Israel and Indonesia in its final weeks in office, according to a former senior Trump administration official involved in the efforts. The official divulged that the negotiations between Israel and the world’s most populous Muslim state were run by then-President Donald Trump’s senior adviser Jared Kushner and Adam Boehler, then-head of the US’s International Development Finance Corporation.

Israel was represented by then-Ambassador Ron Dermer and Indonesia by Minister Mohamed Lutfi. To secure peace, Boehler told Bloomberg News last December, the US would be willing to provide Indonesia with an additional “one or two billion dollars” in aid.

Indonesia was interested in Israeli technology and even wanted the Technion to open a campus in Jakarta. It wanted visa-free travel to Israel and Arab and US investment in its sovereign wealth fund. Israel wanted Indonesia to end its economic boycott of the Jewish state. Direct flights from Tel Aviv to Bali were on the table.

The advantages of peace between Israel and Indonesia for both sides are self-evident. But such a peace would also pay a huge dividend to the US in its burgeoning cold war with China. An expanded strategic and economic partnership with the archipelago and ASEAN member would be a setback for China’s efforts to dominate the South China Sea, particularly with Indonesia playing a role in an Islamic-Israeli alliance led by the US.

“We got the ball on Indonesia and Israel to the first-yard line,” the official explained. Unfortunately, the Biden administration has dropped the ball on the ground and walked off the field.

On the surface, the Biden administration is interested in promoting peace. President Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken have praised the Abraham Accords, as well they should.

Joe Biden’s Minimum-Pressure Campaign Concessions to the Houthis encourage more Houthi attacks.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/joe-bidens-minimum-pressure-campaign-11615332864?mod=opinion_lead_pos4

“Appeasement rarely works as a military or diplomatic strategy—especially not in the Middle East.”

Step one in the Biden Administration’s peace campaign in Yemen: Take the Houthis off the U.S. terror list and reach out to their patrons in Iran for a new nuclear deal.

Step two: End U.S. support for the Arab coalition supporting the internationally recognized government fighting the Houthis in Yemen, put U.S. arms sales to the Saudis on hold, and talk loudly about a “recalibration” of U.S.-Saudi relations.

Step three: The Houthis go on the offensive and on the weekend launch missiles and drones at several Saudi cities and Saudi Aramco facilitiies. The coalition says it intercepted most of the missiles and drones, but the attacks briefly caused an oil price spike. This incident followed other Houthi attacks and U.S. State Department lectures that the Houthis should cease and desist. They didn’t get the message.

Is anyone outside the U.S. State Department surprised? The Houthis are growing bolder as they understandably assume that the Saudis have lost U.S. support. Rather than negotiate, they’re looking to expand their territorial gains in Yemen and keep the military pressure on the Arab coalition. The attacks on Saudi cities and oil facilities are likely to increase, and sooner or later they could do serious harm.