Displaying posts categorized under

FOREIGN POLICY

FOREIGN POLICY, WORLD NEWS Comments turned off

The whole of the Middle East will pay the price for Biden’s Iran appeasement policy Empowering Iran will come at the expense of not only Saudi Arabia – but at the expense of Iraqis, Lebanese, Syrians and Yemenis by Mohammed Khalid Alyahya

By on March 16th, 2021

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/saudi-arabia-biden-iran-yemen-houthi-attacks-b1816509.html

Since the Biden administration’s decision to reverse the designation of Yemen’s Houthi militia as a foreign terrorist organisation (FTO) on February 12, drones and ballistic missiles have targeted Saudi Arabia 48 times.

The latest attack, on Saudi oil facilities in Ras Tanura, in Saudi Arabia’s eastern province, on Sunday, did not come from the direction of Yemen, a royal court adviser told the Wall Street Journal; declining to comment on whether the projectile was launched from Iran or from Iraq.

The removal of the Houthis from the US government’s FTO list was meant to reduce tensions, but it achieved the opposite result. At the heart of the Biden administration’s Middle East policy is a fallacy: that the region’s politics should be understood as a contest between Saudi Arabia and Iran, a conflict between two states that is also a sectarian struggle.

Seen from Tehran, the central contest in the region is between the American alliance system and Iran’s self-styled “resistance alliance”.

Biden’s misconception leads to a number of erroneous ideas: that the United States can play a neutral, mediating role between Riyadh and Tehran; that by distancing itself from Saudi Arabia, it creates opportunities for regional stability and understanding; and that it is the Saudi role in Yemen – and not the Iranian role – that has perpetuated the conflict in that country.

Continue reading →
FOREIGN POLICY, WORLD NEWS Comments turned off

Opportunity Beckons in the Mideast The Biden administration called Iran’s bluff early. It should continue to play the strong hand it was dealt. Jared Kushner

By on March 15th, 2021

https://www.wsj.com/articles/opportunity-beckons-in-the-mideast-11615750526?mod=opinion_lead_pos5

The geopolitical earthquake that began with the Abraham Accords hasn’t ended. More than 130,000 Israelis have visited Dubai since President Trump hosted the peace deal’s signing this past September, and air travel opened up for the first time in August. New, friendly relations are flowering—wait until direct flights get going between Israel and Morocco. We are witnessing the last vestiges of what has been known as the Arab-Israeli conflict.

The conflict’s roots stretch back to the years after World War II, when Arab leaders refused to accept the creation of the state of Israel and spent 70 years vilifying it and using it to divert attention from domestic shortcomings. But as more Muslims visit Israel through Dubai, images are populating on social media of Jews and Muslims proudly standing together. More important, Muslims are posting pictures of peaceful visits to the Al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, blowing a hole in the propaganda that the holy site is under attack and Israelis prevent Muslims from praying there. Every time Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu tweets something positive in Arabic about an Arab leader, it reinforces that Israel is rooting for the success of the Arab world.

One of the reasons the Arab-Israeli conflict persisted for so long was the myth that it could be solved only after Israel and the Palestinians resolved their differences. That was never true. The Abraham Accords exposed the conflict as nothing more than a real-estate dispute between Israelis and Palestinians that need not hold up Israel’s relations with the broader Arab world. It will ultimately be resolved when both sides agree on an arbitrary boundary line.

Continue reading →
FOREIGN POLICY Comments turned off

The Iran Deal’s Inevitable Sequel Barack Obama’s plan was never about stopping Iran from obtaining a bomb. It was about realigning American interests in the Middle East in order to remake the Democratic Party at home. Lee Smith

By on March 12th, 2021

https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/iran-deal-inevitable-sequel

Joe Biden’s commitment to reenter the Iran nuclear deal from which Donald Trump withdrew might strike observers as bizarre. After all, Barack Obama’s July 2015 agreement, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was an expensive and comprehensive failure whose underlying premises have been shown over the past six years to be false. By contrast, Trump’s policy of returning to traditional regional alliance structures—boosting allies and deterring enemies—was a success. The United States entered no new Middle East wars and Iran didn’t build a bomb, despite supposedly being “months” or “weeks” away from a nuclear breakout during Obama’s second term in the White House.

But facts- and results-based analysis misses the main purpose of the JCPOA, which had nothing to do with preventing Iran from building nuclear weapons. Rather, the agreement guaranteed Iran the money and technology it needs to build a bomb while putting Iran’s nuclear program under the protective umbrella of an international agreement guaranteed by the United States. The purpose of the JCPOA, in other words, was to put the nuclear issue in brackets by giving the Iranians a bomb that they were manifestly unable to build on their own—and, in doing so, to remove the obstacle that prevented Obama from realigning American regional interests with those of the revolutionary regime.

None of this should be remotely surprising to anyone who has read the plain text of the deal, and who understands it in its regional context rather than in the context of America’s domestic political wars. What I learned over the course of nearly a decade reporting on the deal, its causes and its effects was that all the elaborate technical talk that was endlessly bandied about by “experts”—centrifuge arrays and stockpiles of enriched uranium, etc.—was simple persiflage, intended to distract attention from the underlying purpose of these arrangements, which was to dump America’s current Middle East allies in favor of Iran.

Continue reading →
FOREIGN POLICY Comments turned off

PREDICTING US/CHINA BACKING AWAY FROM WAR DAVID GOLDMAN

By on March 11th, 2021

Washington and Beijing appear to have stepped back from the brink of tech war, and a breakthrough in US-China relations now seems possible after four years of trade and military tensions between the world’s two largest economies.

Chinese official sources told journalists Tuesday that Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Xi Jinping’s foreign policy advisor Yang Jiechi might meet with their American counterparts in Anchorage, Alaska, to reopen high-level communications with the United States.

The proposed Anchorage meeting was first reported by the South China Morning Post. There was no formal confirmation, but neither was the report denied. Global Times editor Hu Xijin tweeted that he hoped the news was true.

The report of a prospective reset of Sino-American relations follows a week of worry over a possible tech war between the United States and China, after Microsoft accused Chinese hackers with ties to the government of infiltrating tens of thousands of US email servers.

The hacker group dubbed “Hafnium” by Microsoft is “assessed to be state-sponsored and operating out of China, based on observed victimology, tactics and procedures,” the software giant wrote in a blog post. The US National Security Council formed a task force under Deputy National Security Advisor Anne Neuberger to counter the threat.

Continue reading →
FOREIGN POLICY, WORLD NEWS Comments turned off

Biden Abandons Middle East Peace Empowering the PLO and Iran. Caroline Glick

By on March 10th, 2021

https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/2021/03/biden-abandons-middle-east-peace-caroline-glick/

The Trump administration was on the verge of securing a peace agreement between Israel and Indonesia in its final weeks in office, according to a former senior Trump administration official involved in the efforts. The official divulged that the negotiations between Israel and the world’s most populous Muslim state were run by then-President Donald Trump’s senior adviser Jared Kushner and Adam Boehler, then-head of the US’s International Development Finance Corporation.

Israel was represented by then-Ambassador Ron Dermer and Indonesia by Minister Mohamed Lutfi. To secure peace, Boehler told Bloomberg News last December, the US would be willing to provide Indonesia with an additional “one or two billion dollars” in aid.

Indonesia was interested in Israeli technology and even wanted the Technion to open a campus in Jakarta. It wanted visa-free travel to Israel and Arab and US investment in its sovereign wealth fund. Israel wanted Indonesia to end its economic boycott of the Jewish state. Direct flights from Tel Aviv to Bali were on the table.

The advantages of peace between Israel and Indonesia for both sides are self-evident. But such a peace would also pay a huge dividend to the US in its burgeoning cold war with China. An expanded strategic and economic partnership with the archipelago and ASEAN member would be a setback for China’s efforts to dominate the South China Sea, particularly with Indonesia playing a role in an Islamic-Israeli alliance led by the US.

“We got the ball on Indonesia and Israel to the first-yard line,” the official explained. Unfortunately, the Biden administration has dropped the ball on the ground and walked off the field.

On the surface, the Biden administration is interested in promoting peace. President Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken have praised the Abraham Accords, as well they should.

Continue reading →
FOREIGN POLICY, WORLD NEWS Comments turned off

Joe Biden’s Minimum-Pressure Campaign Concessions to the Houthis encourage more Houthi attacks.

By on March 10th, 2021

https://www.wsj.com/articles/joe-bidens-minimum-pressure-campaign-11615332864?mod=opinion_lead_pos4

“Appeasement rarely works as a military or diplomatic strategy—especially not in the Middle East.”

Step one in the Biden Administration’s peace campaign in Yemen: Take the Houthis off the U.S. terror list and reach out to their patrons in Iran for a new nuclear deal.

Step two: End U.S. support for the Arab coalition supporting the internationally recognized government fighting the Houthis in Yemen, put U.S. arms sales to the Saudis on hold, and talk loudly about a “recalibration” of U.S.-Saudi relations.

Step three: The Houthis go on the offensive and on the weekend launch missiles and drones at several Saudi cities and Saudi Aramco facilitiies. The coalition says it intercepted most of the missiles and drones, but the attacks briefly caused an oil price spike. This incident followed other Houthi attacks and U.S. State Department lectures that the Houthis should cease and desist. They didn’t get the message.

Is anyone outside the U.S. State Department surprised? The Houthis are growing bolder as they understandably assume that the Saudis have lost U.S. support. Rather than negotiate, they’re looking to expand their territorial gains in Yemen and keep the military pressure on the Arab coalition. The attacks on Saudi cities and oil facilities are likely to increase, and sooner or later they could do serious harm.

Continue reading →
FOREIGN POLICY Comments turned off

Biden Should Ditch the Doha Deal with Taliban by Amir Taheri

By on March 7th, 2021

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/17150/biden-taliban-afghanistan

There is at least one issue on which Biden would be wise to adopt the anti-Trump posture: Afghanistan.

Today, Biden could ditch Trump’s cut-and-run plan and re-commit the US to helping Afghans protect what they have achieved and move on to build more. By doing so, Biden would burnish his anti-Trump credentials and also please Obama nostalgics.

This week, Khalilzad offered the chasing wolves a much bigger morsel: a plan for a coalition government in which the terrorist outfit would secure a leading place.

It is worth remembering that, until the 9/11 attacks, Khalilzad and Karzai were lobbyists for Taliban in Washington…. By early August 2001, those interested in the issue already knew that Karzai was to be the first Taliban ambassador to Washington.

[T]he US has invested heavily, in blood and treasure, in making Afghanistan what it is today, a chunk of the world freed from one of the darkest forces mankind has seen for centuries.

Finally, it is clear to anyone familiar with Afghan realities that a scheme that may have worked 20 years ago has no chance of succeeding now. The Doha “peace deal” would be nothing more than a prelude to a new tragedy.

For the Taliban to enter government in Kabul they should give up their arms, accept the Afghan constitution, take part in elections and let the world see how much support they have.

President Joe Biden’s first foreign policy moves so far make at least one thing clear: he is looking for areas where he can distance himself from his predecessor without committing to dramatically different courses.

He has promised to return to the Paris climate accord that, requiring congressional approval, doesn’t imply doing anything in particular.

He has flattered European allies by talking about multilateralism, forgetting that even the most multilateral arrangement still needs leadership and a program, something he tries to avoid for fear of being accused of Trumpian arrogance.

Continue reading →
FOREIGN POLICY, ISRAEL Comments turned off

Congress – Israel’s Most Systematic and Challenging Ally Ambassador (Ret.) Yoram Ettinger

By on March 6th, 2021

https://bit.ly/3bRukYB

The Israeli challenge

Since 1948, the US Legislature has systematically supported the US-Israel relationship, and pro-actively promoted enhanced US-Israel cooperation: militarily, industrially, technologically, scientifically, agriculturally, irrigation, space, etc. This Congressional position has been consistent with the worldview of most voters; and, sometimes inconsistent with the Executive Branch.

Congressional affinity toward Israel was demonstrated in February 2020, when the Senate voted 97:3 to fund and maintain the US Embassy in Jerusalem, Israel.

Moreover, in July 2019, the House of Representatives voted 398:17 to condemn the anti-Israel BDS (boycott, divestment, sanctions) movement.

However, the 17 House Representatives, who supported the anti-Israel BDS, included Congresswomen Barbara Lee (D-CA) and Betty McCollum (D-MN). The former is the new chairperson of the most critical Appropriations Subcommittee on Foreign Operations, which overseas foreign aid and international commercial cooperation. The latter is the chairperson of the equally critical Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense, which oversees the defense budget, including global defense cooperation.  These two prominent Congresswomen have been among Israel’s roughest critics on Capitol Hill. 

In 2021, they represent an expanding minority among American voters, in general, and on Capitol Hill, in particular, constituting a major challenge for American and Israeli allies of the highly productive US-Israel collaboration.

They represent a growing segment of the US population, as well as legislators and staffers, who are estranged from the 400-year-old historical, cultural, moral and civic foundations of the US-Israel kinship; unfamiliar with Israel’s role as a unique force-multiplier for the US, and its contribution to the US defense industries, high tech sector, armed forces, counterterrorism and intelligence. They overlook the US-Israel mutual threats and challenges, which transcend the Palestinian issue; inattentive of the adverse effect on US interests of the proposed Palestinian state, and are oblivious to the Arab view of the Palestinians as a role model for intra-Arab terrorism, subversion and treachery. They are indifferent to Palestinian hate-education, which mirrors the Palestinian vision and breeds terrorists. They are uninformed about the enhancement of US interests by Israel’s control of the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria (the West Bank) and the Golan Heights. And, they are unaware of the deep incompatibility between Western values and norms, on the one hand, and the unpredictable, violent, treacherous Middle East reality, on the other hand.   

American and Israeli supporters of US-Israel cooperation, should present their case on Capitol Hill and throughout the US, by focusing on “What’s in it for the USA in its ties with Israel?!” rather than on “What’s in it for Israel?”

Continue reading →
FOREIGN POLICY, WORLD NEWS Comments turned off

Europeans Ease Pressure on Iran in Bid to Revive Nuclear Talks With U.S. Britain, France and Germany, with U.S. support, scrapped a planned censure resolution over concerns about Tehran’s response

By on March 5th, 2021

https://www.wsj.com/articles/europeans-ease-pressure-on-iran-in-bid-to-revive-nuclear-talks-with-u-s-11614875541

The U.S. and European powers are giving Iran a last chance to start cooperating with a United Nations atomic agency probe of Tehran’s nuclear activities, backing away from a formal censure of Iran in a bid to revive nuclear diplomacy between Washington and Tehran.

Britain, France and Germany decided Thursday not to present a resolution censuring Iran that they had floated to other International Atomic Energy Agency member states earlier in the week. Iran had warned the move could lead it to further curtail international inspections of the country and dissuade it from engaging in direct talks with the U.S. on its nuclear program.

The decision was backed by Washington, senior diplomats said, reflecting U.S. concerns that renewed pressure on Iran could derail diplomacy.

At a press conference on Thursday, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi said Iran had agreed to sit down for what he described as “a focused and systematic effort” to clarify a series of so-called safeguards issues the IAEA has been asking Iran about for the last two years.

The concerns center on several discoveries of sites in Iran where nuclear material—various kinds of uranium—has been found. Under its international nonproliferation obligations, Iran is obliged to declare nuclear material in the country. The agency wants to know where the uranium traces come from and has asked about the whereabouts and use of specific nuclear material including uranium metal discs it believes Iran has possessed since the early 2000s.

Continue reading →
FOREIGN POLICY Comments turned off

Iran has already beaten Biden Pulling defeat from the jaws of defeat: Dominic Green

By on March 3rd, 2021

https://spectator.us/topic/iran-already-beaten-biden-syria-strike/

The Biden administration is trying to set some rules in its negotiations about negotiations with Iran. But the first rule of the Middle East is that there are no rules. There are only balances of force and fear. And this is why Iran will defeat the US in Syria just as it has already defeated the US in Iraq.

Like a tourist in a foreign restaurant, the administration knows just enough of the local lingo to order the wrong thing. After years in the region, American strategists have absorbed the crude calculus of force: to be taken seriously, they reason, we have to respond to the rocket attack on an airbase in northern Iraq earlier this month, which killed a military contractor and wounded a US serviceman.

The US has also absorbed the calculus of fear. Much as America’s politicians and generals pretend otherwise, the US was defeated in Iraq years ago. The winner was Iran and its Shia allies.

Why didn’t the US retaliate for an attack on Americans in Iraq by hitting Iran’s proxies in Iraq? Because of fear. The US is afraid of further attacks on its remaining forces in Iraq. It’s afraid of losing what little influence it still has over the Iraqi government. And it’s afraid of returning Iraq to civil war.

The US is right to fear and avoid all these outcomes. The US would be even righter if it avoided Iraq entirely, instead of leaving 2,500 servicemen there as sitting ducks. But a tough guy like Joe Biden isn’t going to tell the American people that the US has been thoroughly defeated in Iraq by Iranian IEDs, Sunni self-detonators and its own imperial vanity.

Continue reading →