RUTHFULLY YOURS

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8209161/More-18-000-Americans-dead-coronavirus.html?ito=push-notification&ci=12687&si=5381410

More than 18,000 Americans now dead from coronavirus as the infection number increases to 490,000 – as updated projections show TODAY will be peak death day with an estimated 1,900 fatalities
The death had increased to more than 18,000 by Friday with 1,322 death recorded in 24 hours 
There are now more than 490,000 confirmed coronavirus infections across the country after cases increase by nearly 21,000 overnight
Updated projections show Friday will be the peak day for coronavirus deaths 
The new estimates brought forward the peak day of deaths by two days to April 10 with 1,983 people predicted to die from the coronavirus 
The projections were released on Friday by forecasters at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation 
Peak resource use for hospitals is predicted to occur on Saturday where an estimated 86,379 beds, 17,707 ICU beds and 15,414 ventilators will be needed 
Learn more about how to help people impacted by COVID

https://pjmedia.com/trending/dr-fauci-cuts-death-projection-almost-in-half-from-just-10-days-ago/

On March 31, the White House coordinator for the coronavirus task force gave a somber projection of between 100,00 and 240,000 dead Americans as a result of the pandemic.

Dr. Deborah Birx said that even with strict social distancing and a shuttered economy, the best we could hope for is 100,000 fatal cases of the coronavirus.

But today, Dr. Anthony Fauci revised that estimate considerably downward. Fauci now believes — based on two respected models — that the U.S. death toll will be around 60,000.

Bloomberg:

At a White House news conference on Wednesday, Birx said that two prominent models for U.S. mortality from the Covid-19 pandemic — Covid Act Now and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington — had both lowered their fatality projections based on widespread social distancing efforts.

Trump didn’t endorse social distancing until March 16, after many ordinary Americans had already taken up the practices themselves out of fear for the virus. It isn’t clear that the country will obey him if he urges Americans to abandon the behaviors before the outbreak has abated.

“The country” will go back to work if Trump gives the all-clear. It’s not a question of “obeying” or disobeying the president. For most, it’s a matter of survival.

That said, in an interview with CBS, Dr. Fauci was considerably more optimistic than he has been in the past.

Separately, Fauci said in a CBS News interview on Thursday that he sees the U.S. making progress toward a return to normal life in the near future. Federal social-distancing recommendations extend to April 30.

“Hopefully, by the time we get to the summer, we will have taken many steps in that direction,” he said. But he cautioned that different areas of the U.S. may see the outbreak peak at different times, which may require a range of timetables.

Fauci was asked if he can envision Americans returning to beaches, celebrations, and other normal seasonal activities in the summer.

“Yes,” he said, “if we do the things that we need to do to prevent the resurgence.”

https://pjmedia.com/trending/heritage-coronavirus-commission-releases-5-step-plan-to-reopen-america/

On Thursday, the Heritage Foundation’s National Coronavirus Recovery Commission met for the first time. At the meeting, seventeen experts hammered out a general five-phase plan to “save lives and livelihoods” by defeating the coronavirus and jumpstarting the economy. Vice President Mike Pence acknowledged the commission’s work.

In order to slow the spread of the virus, President Donald Trump has urged Americans to stay home, practice social distancing, and avoid going into the office if their work is not “essential.” State and local leaders have issued various orders, and businesses have moved to remote work or laying off employees. Unemployment has skyrocketed, Americans are having trouble paying rent, and millions are hoping America can reopen sooner rather than later. President Trump originally said he hoped to reopen the country by Easter, but that seems too ambitious.

“Good public health policy is good economic policy, and vice versa,” Kay Coles James, president of the Heritage Foundation, said in a statement. “If the economy fails, there will be severe, long-term health consequences; and if the health care system fails, there will be severe, long-term economic consequences. A nation decimated by the disease cannot have a functioning economy, and a catastrophic loss of jobs wreaks horrific damage on both mental and physical health.”

Therefore, the commission announced a five-phase plan to reopen the economy while also combatting the virus.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/492042-nih-begins-clinical-trial-to-test-hydroxychloroquine-to-treat-covid-19

The National Institutes of Health (NIH) has begun enrolling participants in a clinical trial to test the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine in treating COVID-19, the agency announced Thursday.

The first participants have enrolled in the trial at Vanderbilt University Medical Center in Nashville, Tenn. The study will be conducted by the NIH’s National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.

According to the NIH, the blinded, placebo-controlled randomized clinical trial aims to enroll more than 500 adults who are currently hospitalized with COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, or who are in an emergency department with anticipated hospitalization. 

Participants will be randomly assigned to receive 400 mg of hydroxychloroquine twice daily for two doses (day one), then 200 mg twice daily for the subsequent eight doses (days two through five) or a placebo twice daily for five days.

Hydroxychloroquine is used to treat malaria, lupus and rheumatoid conditions such as arthritis. However, its effectiveness at treating COVID-19 has never been proven, despite its embrace by President Trump. 

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/04/maybe_theres_a_reason_why_dire_projections_about_covid19_have_been_wrong.html

COVID-19 has proven to be a brutal flu for those unlucky enough to get it. Any new disease that’s successfully left animals behind for human-to-human transmission is highly risky. Nevertheless, the current insanity gripping the world is based upon highly dubious computer models, making those models as dangerous as a virus.

On April 8, MSNBC’s Chris Hayes attacked Trump for trying to manipulate downwards the expert projections about COVID-19 deaths. One month later, Hayes was back, attacking Trump for intentionally manipulating the numbers upwards:

Hayes is an unprincipled moron who will say anything to hurt Trump but his monomania highlights how very wrong the original high-death predictions have proven to be. The Washington Post’s Philip Bump tried to explain away one set of wildly inflated predictions by saying that the experts’ were accurate but that later behavioral changes caused lower numbers:

The problem is that the model Bump looks to assumed 100% social distancing, which hasn’t happened:

Alex Berenson, a former New York Times writer, is also taking apart the modeling. He most recently focused on Ohio’s attempt to do statistical time traveling:

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/coronavirus-pandemic-projection-models-pro

To describe as stunning the collapse of a key model the government has used to alarm the nation about the catastrophic threat of the coronavirus would not do this development justice.

In a space of just six days starting April 2, two revisions (on April 5 and 8) have utterly discredited the model produced by the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. I wrote about the IHME’s modeling at National Review on Monday, the day after the first revision — which was dramatic, but pales in comparison to Wednesday’s reassessment. This was not immediately apparent because the latest revision (April 8) did not include a side-by-side comparison, as did the April 5 revision. Perusal of the new data, however, is staggering, as is what it says about government predictions we were hearing just days ago about the likelihood of 100,000 deaths, with as many as 240,000 a real possibility.

As I noted in my last post on this subject, by April 5, the projection of likely deaths had plunged 12 percent in just three days, 93,531 to 81,766. Understand, this projection is drawn from a range; on April 2, IHME was telling us cumulative COVID-19 deaths could reach as high as approximately 178,000. The upper range was also reduced on April 5 to about 136,000.

https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/491665-if-only-hydroxychloroquine-could-cure-trump-derangement-syndrome

Not every Democrat has COVID-19; but they all – uniformly – apparently suffer from TDS, better known as Trump Derangement Syndrome. Symptoms of this wide-spread affliction include the inability to ever concede, or even imagine, that President Trump might possibly be right about something, sometime.  

The most idiotic recent outbreak of this highly communicable disease surrounds the argument over chloroquine and its less toxic derivative hydroxychloroquine. In mid-March, as the coronavirus surged, President Trump mentioned that the latter anti-malaria drug appeared to have “tremendous promise” as a therapy for treating COVID-19 patients. He said it “could be a game-changer, and maybe not,” acknowledging that the jury was still out.

Trump noted that the drug has been available for decades to treat malaria and thus its side-effects are well known. It is also inexpensive and available from numerous suppliers, all of which might recommend it to our pragmatic president.