RUTHFULLY YOURS

https://thefederalist.com/2020/04/27/why-no-covid-19-models-have-been-accurate-and-how-to-fix-that/

The decisions that are being made during this crisis are far too important and complex to be based on such imprecise data and with such unreliable results.

There’s been a lot of armchair analysis about various models being used to predict outcomes of COVID-19. For those of us who have built spatial and statistical models, all of this discussion brings to mind George Box’s dictum, “All models are wrong, but some are useful”—or useless, as the case may be.

The problem with data-driven models, especially when data is lacking, can be easily explained. First of all, in terms of helping decision makers make quality decisions, statistical hypothesis testing and data analysis is just one tool in a large tool box.

It’s based on what we generally call reductionist theory. In short, the tool examines parts of a system (usually by estimating an average or mean) and then makes inferences to the whole system. The tool is usually quite good at testing hypotheses under carefully controlled experimental conditions.

For example, the success of the pharmaceutical industry is, in part, due to the fact that they can design and implement controlled experiments in a laboratory. However, even under controlled experimental procedures, the tool has limitations and is subject to sampling error. In reality, the true mean (the true number or answer we are seeking) is unknowable because we cannot possibly measure everything or everybody, and model estimates always have a certain amount of error.

These Models Are Unreliable

Simple confidence intervals can provide good insight into the precision and reliability, or usefulness, of the part estimated by reductionist models. With the COVID-19 models, the so-called “news” appears to be using either the confidence interval from one model or actual estimated values (i.e., means) from different models as a way of reporting a range of the “predicted” number of people who may contract or die from the disease (e.g., 60,000 to 2 million).

Someday 2020 will be behind us, and we’ll tell our kids and grandkids about the year we were smitten by the plague.

By which I don’t mean COVID-19, which is at best a nasty disease with death tolls the equivalent of a bad flu year – if we accept the numbers we’re being fed by an establishment desperate to cash in on the cash bonus for each COVID-19 diagnosis – but the plague that has laid this country low, destroyed our economy and brought us to a place that no external enemy could have brought: this plague of experts. Or perhaps I should say “experts” since most of them have behind them only a long string of failed prognostications, followed by promotion within the “civil servant” echelons.

Yes, I am talking about Doctors Birx and Fauci. I’m already seeing people pointing fingers at the president and complaining that he’s relied too much on these “experts.”

In fact, some months ago I saw people complaining in the comments at one of the conservative sites that the president hires “establishment” people which he then has to fire. Why can’t he hire the people who will be good and not beholden to the – largely left – political establishment?

Which brings us to the real plague of experts.

Sure, what happened in 2020 and taking our economy down to protect us from what will emerge in retrospect as a not particularly lethal illness is a problem.

If we survive – we’ll survive, right – and there is still a Republic at the end of this, we’ll need to talk about the plague of experts as a systemic problem.

You see, just like COVID-19 is a virus similar to those that cause the common cold, this overreaction to COVID-19 bears a strong resemblance to “expert-directed” faux pas in everything from aviation to business to healthcare to, yes, politics.

In the early 21st century – largely because of a hyper-litigious society, in which everyone and anyone might sue you for discrimination – we’re faced with the inability to judge merit or competency.

https://nypost.com/2020/04/26/science-says-its-time-to-start-easing-the-coronavirus-lockdowns/

Scott W. Atlas, MD, is the David and Joan Traitel Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and a former chief of neuroradiology at Stanford Medical Center.

The consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic have been enormous, and New York has suffered more than anywhere else in the world. Compared as a separate country, the New York area would rank, by far, as No. 1 for deaths per capita.

The New York-New Jersey-Connecticut tri-state area accounts for approximately 60 percent of all US deaths. Theories abound, but the New York area itself is different: New York is the top port of entry for the hundreds of thousands of tourists coming to the US every month from China; Gotham has a uniquely high density of living that swells daily by millions from workers and tourists; and Manhattan sees some 1.6 million commuters daily, mostly on crowded public transit, including 320,000 from Jersey alone.

Yet the pandemic toll is falling, dramatically so in New York, ­including both hospitalizations and deaths per day. Few doubt that the unprecedented isolation policies had a significant ­impact on “flattening the curves.”

Now, we face another, even greater problem: how to sensibly re-enter normal life. This must be based on what we now know, not on worst-case projections, using facts and fundamental medical knowledge, not fear or single-vision policies.

First, we know the risk of ­dying from COVID-19 is far lower than initially thought, and not significant for the overwhelming majority of those infected.

https://www.3ccorp.net/2020/04/16/george-soros-bill-gates-partner-with-china-on-coronavirus-drug/

As drug manufacturers speed up their efforts to find a new treatment drug for the coronavirus outbreak that has devastated China and has caused a world-wide panic, a Chinese drug company just announced that it has started mass-producing an experimental drug from Gilead Sciences that has the potential to fight the novel coronavirus (1).

BrightGene Bio-Medical Technology, a Suzhou based company (2), just announced that it has developed the technology to synthesize the active pharmaceutical ingredients of Remdesivir, the drug developed by Gilead Biosciences. Its stock price surged 20% in Tuesday morning trading in Shanghai (1).

“While BrightGene said that it intends to license the drug from Gilead, its move to start manufacturing at this early stage is highly unusual and a potential infringement of the American company’s intellectual property.“(1) This comes a week after Chinese researchers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology filed an application to patent Gilead’s drug Remdesivir to treat the new coronavirus, a bid that would give China leverage over the global use of the therapy to fight the outbreak (1)(3)(4).

The decision to seek a patent instead of invoking a “compulsory license” option that lets nations override drug patents in national emergencies, signals China’s commitment toward intellectual property rights. The timing is uncanny! Right? Gilead will retain the global rights to market the antiviral medication, once approved (3). Gilead has also announced that it is partnering with the Chinese Health Authorities on the clinical trials of Remdesivir as a treatment for coronavirus (5). Remdesivir was originally developed in 2016 by Gilead as a treatment for the Ebola virus (13). Many have argued that China stole the patent from Gilead due to a technicality, but you will soon see that this is indeed not the case (14).And who exactly is Gilead Biosciences? Gilead is partnered with Wuxi Pharmaceuticals (Wuxi AppTec) owned by New World Order philanthropist and mass manipulator himself, George Soros (6)(7)! Here is a printout of Soros Fund Managaement Portfolio which will confirm this (8)!

Wuxi Pharmaceuticals is conveniently located in the epicenter of the outbreak near Wuhan Institute of Virology that has been implicated as the Bioweapons manufacturer of this coronavirus (10)(11)(12)! Looks like China has both the Bioweapon and the cure! And let’s not forget the patent on the treatment drug! How charitable do you suppose China will be with the west?

But this story doesn’t end here. George Soros also owns Gilead Biosciences (15).

https://issuesinsights.com/2020/04/27/biden-lets-fix-the-economy-by-repeating-obamas-stimulus-fiasco/

Joe Biden has a plan to get the economy moving again after the coronavirus shutdown. Unfortunately for him, his plan has already been tried – and it failed miserably.

In an interview with Politico published over the weekend, Biden said that after injecting trillions of dollars to keep the economy from collapsing entirely, the next stimulus needs to be “a hell of a lot bigger.”

What should the money go for? A “trillion-dollar infrastructure program that can be implemented really rapidly (and) dealing with environmental things that create good-paying jobs.”

Politico says Biden also called for “massive aid to states and cities to prevent them from ‘laying off a hell of a lot of teachers and cops and firefighters.’”

“Biden said investments in light rail, clean drinking water, and half a million electric vehicle chargers on the nation’s highways could help retool the economy for the future.”

Where have we heard this before? Oh, right, Barack Obama’s 2009 stimulus, which was going to turbocharge the economy by funding “shovel-ready jobs,” heavy investments in mass transit, “clean” energy, electric cars, and a bailout of state governments.

https://www.nysun.com/editorials/a-failed-state-try-the-elixir-of-optimism/91103/

It looks like the Democratic line going into the election is going to be that the coronavirus pandemic has exposed America as a “failed state.” That, at least, is the argument emerging in the left-of-center press. The idea seems to be that the full employment, rising wages, and economic growth Americans had been experiencing were an illusion — popped by Covid-19 to disclose a flat-footed state of incompetence and venality.

It sounds to us like wishful thinking. We’ve no doubt that our crisis is grave and that there have been errors at all levels of government, including federal, and in both parties (the one we worry about most is monetary policy). We’ve read the Times piece headlined “Nervous Republicans See Trump Sinking, and Taking Senate With Him.” What strikes us, though, is that the line on the left goes beyond Mr. Trump to the record of capitalism itself.

President Trump hadn’t been in office half a year when Foreign Policy issued a piece under the headline “Is America a Failing State?” It suggested, in the sub-head, that the “right path forward must not include Donald Trump as president.” Six weeks ago, when the novel coronavirus had only begun claiming American lives, the Atlantic put over one of its pieces a headline declaring: “America Is Acting Like a Failed State.”

https://amgreatness.com/2020/04/26/our-virus-is-a-violent-teacher/

For a brief season in time, we glimpsed from the awful epidemic what was wheat and what was chaff, what was mahogany beneath and what a scrapped thin veneer above, who were the V8s and who the mere gaudy, tail fins—and how America ultimately got by and how it almost didn’t.

Before this virus has passed, those of the New York Symphony, like the defeated Redcoats at proverbial Yorktown, will be playing the real “The World Turned Upside Down”:

And then strange motions will abound.
Yet let’s be content, and the times lament,
you see the world turn’d upside down.

Before the virus, apparently we were prepping for our brave new progressive, centrally planned dystopia.

During the Barack Obama years, government agencies had begun to chart a new inclusive future for hoi polloi Americans. We were lectured frequently that the Obama arc of the moral universe was long, but it always bent toward his sense of justice. Translated that meant, like it or not, we Americans had a preordained moral rendezvous with a progressive destiny.

Suburban lifestyles, yards, grass, rural living, and commute driving were to be phased out. High rises, government run-buses, and high-speed rail were in: more people in less space, with less energy consumed, meant less trouble. Granny was better off in a green rest home, not the back bedroom.

Ohio was over; the EU was our future. Clean coal was a 20th-century embarrassment; the next and future Solyndra would be cutting-edge. The idea that the United States ought to be self-sufficient in energy and food seemed worthy of yawns.

https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/2020/04/covid-19-not-nearly-dangerous-you-think-robert-j-shillman-phd/

There is no “urgent crisis” due to Covid-19 that requires a lock-down of citizens. That conclusion is based on the following:

* The probability of dying from the virus in the US is very low: 1.5 out of 10,000.

* The death rate attributed to Covid-19 in the US, which has placed increasing restrictions on people, is about the same as the death rate in Sweden, 2.0 out of 10,000, which has placed very limited restrictions on people.

Read below for objective details that lead to that conclusion:

Sources of Data: I used the most recent data for Covid-19 from the four websites below on 4/24/20.

[1] The Johns Hopkins’ website (for deaths by country…other than in the US).

[2] Worldometers (for deaths in the US).

[3] CDC (for deaths by age).

[4] Wikipedia (for population): The US has a population of 329,064,917, and Sweden has a population of 10,036,379.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=408&v=xfLVxx_lBLU&feature=emb_logo