RUTHFULLY YOURS

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/09/18/electorate_makeup_will_be_key_to_midterm_outcome_138090.html

With the last primary of the 2018 midterm cycle over, it’s now official: The general election has begun. With 50 days to go, who are midterm voters?

“A midterm voter is little bit older, a little bit whiter and more educated” than a presidential election voter, said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball Report. While this demographic is usually a positive for Republicans, he cautioned that “educated voters are becoming more Democratic with each election.”

Midterms tend to be low-turnout affairs. In presidential elections, somewhere between 60 to 70 percent of registered voters typically go to the ballot box, whereas in a midterm the number hovers around 40 percent. The drop-off is pronounced among millennials and minority voters.

Millennials are enthusiastic about issues but unreliable on Election Day, particularly in midterms. In the 2016 presidential election, 19 percent of the electorate was millennial voters, while only 13 percent of that group made it to the polls in the 2014 midterms. Similar trends are present among black and Hispanic voters.

In primaries, the top priority for candidates is to attract party loyalists, who are generally more partisan. But in a general election, candidates need to appeal to a wider audience by capturing centrist voters. Exit polling from the 2014 elections show that about 40 percent of the voters identified their ideology as moderate whereas 23 percent identified as liberal and 37 percent as conservative. In 2014, independent voters supported Republicans by 54 percent to 42 percent, and Republicans picked up 13 seats in the House. In 2016, independent voters supported Donald Trump by 46 percent to 42 percent, a margin that likely provided the difference in his victory. In tight elections, independents are often the voting bloc most crucial to victory.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/09/17/historic_midterm_trends_tell_usnothing_138087.html

There’s one question on Washington’s collective mind that hovers above the never-ending swirl of Trump news: Who will control Congress after the midterms?

As with everything in politics these days, there are lots of predictions – and those who manage to be right will be celebrated. But here’s the problem: It’s almost impossible to figure out if a blue wave will happen – and how big it might be – until it happens.

A quick look at House turnover in midterms since 1960 reveals one thing: uncertainty. The average midterm House loss for the sitting president’s party is 22 seats. Yet the actual numbers have been all over the map, ranging from +8 in 2002 for George W. Bush to -63 in 2010 for Barack Obama.

But can’t we look at some key indicators today to figure out what’s going to happen? Sadly, no. Here are just a few “leading indicators” that indicate… almost nothing.

GDP growth was at 4.2 percent in the second quarter – the highest since 2014 – which should help Republicans, right? Yes, that’s a strong number. But looking at second-quarter GDP over the past 58 years shows no correlation to House gains or losses. Indeed, Obama’s large loss in 2010 came at a time when second-quarter GDP was 3.7 percent. And Bill Clinton’s 54-seat loss happened with GDP sitting at 5.5 percent. By contrast, George W. Bush gained eight seats in 2002 with GDP growth at 2.4 percent.

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2018/09/sad_and_pathetic_delusional_bill_kristol_prepares_war_machine_to_challenge_trump_for_2020_gop_nomination.html

Swamp fever has taken a toll on a number of DC-dwelling conservative pundits and driven them mad. They seem to be competing with each other to see who can bark at the moon loudest. There’s Jennifer Rubin, who has excoriated Trump for taking positions that she previously advocated. There’s George Will, who wished for a 50 state sweep for corrupt Hillary Clinton. But making a strong move to capture leadership of this cohort is Bill Kristol, who still fancies himself a kingmaker, despite the ignominious defeat of his second-choice Trump challenger Evan McMullin after first choice David French bowed out.

Paging Dr. Freud: Kristol’s chosen picture for his Twitter account looks like someone shooting himself in the head with his finger-gun

Recall that Kristol’s deep-think strategy was to have McMullin win the votes of (presumably straight-laced) Utah voters who shared McMullin’s Mormon faith, and thereby deny the “short-fingered vulgarian” Trump the electoral votes of the Beehive State, which Kristol theorized might swing the election to Hillary.

Undeterred by playing the fool in 2016, Kristol is, in the memorable words of Lieutenant General Honore, “stuck on stupid” and looking for a new patsy candidate to mobilize the inevitable defeat of Trump in the GOP nomination contest. Like cargo cultists building a model of a runway in New Guinea for the airplanes air dropping supplies, Kristol thinks he can create a ‘war machine’ that will prevail over a sitting president with 90% approval from Republicans.

Joe Concha of The Hill manages to report this announced effort without even using the expressing ”LOL.”

Conservative commentator and outspoken “Never Trump” critic Bill Kristol says he is building a “war machine” within the Republican party to challenge President Trump’s 2020 reelection campaign, according to CNBC.

Kristol told the network that he’s preparing “for a primary run against Trump,” adding that Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) is on his shortlist of possible candidates.

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2018/09/far_left_triumphant_in_new_york_primary.html

The socialist insurgency against establishment Democrats in New York emerged triumphant as no fewer than six far-left candidates defeated establishment Democrats in races for the state Senate.

New York Times:

Years of anger at a group of Democratic state senators who had collaborated with Republicans boiled over on Thursday, as primary voters ousted nearly all of them in favor of challengers who had called them traitors and sham progressives.

The losses were not only a resounding upset for the members of the Independent Democratic Conference, who outspent their challengers several times over, but also a sign that the progressive fervor sweeping national politics had hobbled New York’s once-mighty Democratic machine, at least on a local level.

The most high-profile casualty was Senator Jeffrey D. Klein of the Bronx, the former head of the I.D.C. In that role, he was for years one of Albany’s most powerful players, sharing leadership of the chamber with his counterparts in the Republican conference and participating in the state’s secretive budget negotiations.

But on Thursday, he was defeated by Alessandra Biaggi, a lawyer and former aide to Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, after a campaign in which Ms. Biaggi cornered Mr. Klein into spending more than $2 million, an astonishing sum for a state legislative race. (Cynthia Nixon, in her unsuccessful bid against Mr. Cuomo, spent less.)

Two things: First, the victories of socialists rid the Democrats of the last vestige of bipartisanship in the state Senate. This will make Albany an even more unruly place than it already is. Secondly, and most important, the march of socialism in the Democratic Party appears to be unstoppable and will make 2020 an Armageddon of sorts between right and left.

Which vision will the 50% of eligible voters who bother to go to the polls choose? The party of free stuff? Or the party of personal responsibility and the protection of liberty?

https://amgreatness.com/2018/09/14/why-black

The growing positive attitude of black voters towards President Trump is the wildcard in the coming midterm elections. It is real and it is expanding. Polls are showing anywhere from 20 percent to 36 percent of blacks approve of President Trump. The Democrats even may have lost 11 percent of black women.

The cracks in the black Democrat bloc voting are one of the most consequential results of Barack Obama’s presidency and the phenomenal effectiveness of President Trump’s pro-business policies. This could be a historic turning point.

Measurable Progress
Trump’s economic policies have improved the lives of black Americans, just as he promised they would during the election. Unlike Obama’s media hype, Trump’s progress is as real and as solid as his buildings. Black unemployment continues to fall. Good manufacturing jobs are coming back. Paychecks are rising, too.

The roots of this political watershed in the black community are more complex than job figures and will last beyond Trump’s tenure. I have been listening for hours to ordinary black Americans on the #Walkaway movement’s YouTube channel. This is a movement of former Democrats explaining why they are leaving their party. While each face, voice, and story is unique and fascinating, there are some striking recurring themes.

Ironically, the change seems to have started with President Obama’s election.

President Obama raised the hopes of black Americans to the highest they’ve been since Martin Luther King. The entire country expected he would devote himself to getting blacks better schools, more jobs, higher wages, and safer neighborhoods. Instead, Obama ignored those bread-and-butter needs. His signature initiative was to send Eric Holder to stoke up publicity and fear in the wake of the Trayvon Martin and Michael Brown shootings.

In the short term, hyping fake white racism and police brutality worked to stanch the bleeding in black turnout in the 2012 election. In the long term, however, Obama’s reliance on racial fear and grievance increased black suffering. He broke people’s hearts and blew up many black voters’ loyalty to the Democrats.

https://www.frontpagemag.com/point/271326/new-york-voters-pick-socialist-compulsive-liar-daniel-greenfield

Cheer up, socialists.

Sure Cynthia Nixon, Zephyr Teachout, Jumaaaaanee Williams and Iosif Vissarionovich Dzhugashvili all badly flamed out in New York Dem primaries, but Julia Salazar won.

The Christian Jewish Colombian immigrant from Miami, who may or may not have graduated from Columbia, but has a huge trust fund and hates Jews, will go on to the New York State Senate.

The fake woman of color/trust fund baby fighting gentrification by appealing to gentrifiers roundly won the gentrifier vote against a man of color and will go on to the State Senate. And there’s no doubt that a compulsive liar who in her short life already managed to be accused of stealing wine during an affair with Keith Hernandez and to accuse a Netanyahu aide of sexual assault, will do the DSA proud.

Can a joint Cherokee/Colombian ticket with Elizabeth Warren be far behind?

I for one can’t wait until Julia Salazar has an affair with Governor Andrew Cuomo, gets accused of stealing wine by his wife, and then comes out as a Buddhist member of ISIS and joins the Nazi Party.

Forward comrades, you have nothing to lose but your minds. And the last of your credibility.

https://www.frontpagemag.com/point/271325/new-york-voters-sentence-cynthia-nixon-lifetime-daniel-greenfield

New York voters cast their ballots yesterday and the wisdom of the crowd determined that the best lifetime role for Cynthia Nixon involved not the governor’s mansion, but a few decades of minor roles on sitcoms lightly referencing her Sex and the City years.

Despite Nixon’s promise to fix the subways (without knowing how) or immediately implement socialist medicine while figuring out how to pay for it later, New York voters wisely determined that the socialist candidate’s talents should be best used for minor indie movie roles and voiceovers.

While Nixon had promised to make New York the contact point for UFOs and to round up all the Zionists while curing all known diseases with healing crystals, New York voters thought that she should focus on doing funny voices for cartoons and other things that has been actresses with plenty of contacts in the industry can continue to do.

Despite Nixon’s contention that as the 22nd incarnation of the Dalai Lama, only she was qualified to reform New York’s budget by putting all the illegal aliens on the state payroll, New York voters thought that her talents should be best utilized surprising tourists who spot her crossing the street on the Upper West Side, and then wonder if she’s that woman from Suddenly Susan who tried to behead Trump.

But either way, New Yorkers won’t have Nixon to kick around anymore.

http://thefederalist.com/2018/09/13/7-wild-claims-democratic-socialist-candidate-julia-salazar-made/

Democratic socialist and feminist Julia Salazar is running for the New York state Senate’s 18th District, in North Brooklyn, where she’s challenging an incumbent Democrat in today’s primary election. She’s a former registered Republican who ran a pro-life group in college but is now a pro-choice candidate.

Salazar has been telling people she was raised Jewish in a “working class” home, when she’s actually a trust-fund recipient who was raised in a middle-class Catholic family. She was arrested in 2011 for allegedly impersonating the wife of a player for the New York Mets, with whom she was accused of having an affair.

She has publicly accused a spokesperson for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, David Keyes, of sexual assault, then claimed that she was “outed” as a sexual assault survivor when a news organization reported on it.

But none of that matters to Teen Vogue, which published a fluffy interview with Salazar today devoid of a single question about the conflicting statements she’s made about her background and identity. Here are seven wild stories that have been reported about the 27-year-old democratic socialist from Brooklyn.
1. She Claims She Was ‘Outed’ As A Sexual Assault Survivor

Earlier this week, The Daily Caller News Foundation reported that, in a since-deleted Facebook post, Salazar accused Keyes of sexually assaulting her in his New York apartment. When the DCNF asked Salazar’s campaign for a comment, her spokesman confirmed the allegation and did not ask for the remark to be off-the-record nor for anonymity.

“Julia was a survivor of sexual assault by David Keyes, and she is aware of other women who have also been victimized by him,” the spokesman said, according to the DCNF. “There’s a reason women don’t often come forward after a traumatic experience-—because of the harmful responses and retaliation that can follow.”

Robert Rosenthal for Civil Court Judge in 2018-

For 27 years, I have fought for justice on behalf of people who are under appreciated and overlooked. My work has been difficult, but rewarding. I look forward to a new phase of my career as a judge, in which I can continue to pursue justice from the bench.”

He would be a real asset to the bench in New York….rsk

https://legalinsurrection.com/2018/09/i-am-spartacus-will-stick-to-cory-booker/

Political rule number 1: Don’t take a selfie with Bozo the Clown. Your opponents will use it forever in political ads.

Political rule number 2: Don’t call yourself Spartacus. You will be ridiculed today, tomorrow, and forever.

Somebody forgot rule number 2, and the man who forgot it, Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ), will pay a price.

The junior senator from New Jersey is looking ever-more junior by the day. He is now the butt of every prankster with Photoshop and a picture of Kirk Douglas in a gladiator’s costume.

True story. Today, when I Googled “Spartacus,” the search engine helpfully added a second word, “Booker.”

Although the ridicule will fade, it will return every time Sen. Booker seeks the presidency, which will probably be for the rest of his life. Breathtakingly stupid comments like Booker’s “I am Spartacus” are like red wine spilled on a white carpet. You can mop and scrub them, but they don’t really disappear.

Why do some mistakes like this live so long and others fade away so quickly?

The ones that live are those that reveal—and congeal—our deep-seated images of the person who made them. They do so succinctly, memorably. Their opponents know that and seize upon them. So do comedians and editorial cartoonists, unless they are unwilling to joke about a candidate they support (an all-too-common ailment these days).

Consider a few Great Fumbles from recent U.S. political history.