RUTHFULLY YOURS

https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/270260/radical-dems-rising-matthew-vadum

Radical in-your-face left-wing candidates are gaining new electoral momentum in the already radical Democratic Party.

As Townhall’s Matt Vespa opines, far-left candidates have been making “a meal of the establishment, knocking off the more centrist candidates in primaries across the country.”

While Democratic enthusiasm appears to have stalled according to some polling, it was not apparent in [this month’s] primaries. There were historic numbers of Democratic voters turning out in Idaho and Pennsylvania, the latter of which is key in the Left’s road to retaking the House.

May 15 “was a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad day for Democratic moderates,” according to the Washington Post.

The success of very liberal candidates in primaries across four states is causing a new bout of heartburn among party strategists in Washington, who worry about unelectable activists thwarting their drive for the House majority. But it also reflects a broader leftward lurch among Democrats across the country since President Trump took office.

In Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district, Kara Eastman, a social worker who supports “Medicare for All,” unexpectedly picked off former one-term U.S. Rep. Brad Ashford, who had been backed by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC). Eastman is a walking, talking leftist cliché. She supports hiking taxes, decriminalizing marijuana, and imposing universal background checks on gun purchases.

“I’m tired of hearing Democrats don’t have a backbone, that we don’t stand for anything,” she said in a campaign ad. “That changes now!”

Democrat strategists believe they have an opening in Pennsylvania’s 15th congressional district after the recent resignation of annoying NeverTrumper Rep. Charlie Dent (R) from his seat.

The early Democrat leader in PA-15, local district attorney John Morganelli, was defeated by lawyer Susan Wild, who was backed by EMILY’s List. Morganelli opposes abortion rights and so-called sanctuary cities and said positive things about Trump, which helped to seal his doom.

In Pennsylvania’s 1st congressional district, young Navy veteran Rachel Reddick, was beaten despite an endorsement by EMILY’s List. “Proud progressive” Scott Wallace triumphed over Reddick by attacking her for being a registered Republican up until two years ago. Wallace, the grandson of kooky communist-sympathizer Henry Wallace, one of Franklin Roosevelt’s vice presidents, said in his victory speech, “Together, we can make America sane again.”

Something funny is happening with the much-hyped “blue wave” on the way to the fall midterms. That wave of Democratic candidates that is supposed to sweep away the Republican majority in the U.S. House of Representatives? The one that the press and pundits have been predicting for months? One would almost think the steady narrative of a blue wave is an attempt at psychological warfare by the mainstream media and the Left in hopes of depressing Republican donors and voters into thinking the outcome is a foregone conclusion.

But that narrative is completely detached from reality. The numbers now tell a different story.

Democrats entered 2018 with a double-digit lead in the congressional generic ballot, upwards of 15 points in some polls. Yet somehow in May, their lead in the RealClearPolitics average has shrunk to just four points. In some generic polls, such as the Reuters survey, the Democrats’ lead has disappeared entirely. In fact, in the most recent Reuters’ poll, Republicans are up more than six points generically.

Democrats right now are in a position mirrored almost exactly in May 2014, when they held a one-to-four-point lead on most generic ballots. Remember what happened? Democrats lost 13 seats.

Unmistakably, the dynamics of 2018 are different. President Trump is a volatile and polarizing figure. Moreover, nearly 40 Republican incumbents—including House Speaker Paul Ryan—are retiring. And every race is subject to contingency and local events.

A Tea Party Precedent?
Nevertheless, as we consider the “great and awesome” blue wave in 2018, it’s worth remembering the Tea Party wave of 2010. That year, 85 percent of House incumbents won. Put in perspective, that supposed seismic election was the worst reelection average for House incumbents in the last 40 years. It’s not unusual in most off-year midterms for incumbents to have a 94-98 percent re-election rate. In fact, the average reelection rate for U.S. House incumbents since World War II has been 93 percent.

When President Trump presided over a business roundtable in Cleveland last weekend, it was one of several events he has hosted in the Midwest since Election Day. Trump held a raucous victory rally in Ohio just a few weeks after he won the presidency, and has since made frequent trips to Indiana, Wisconsin, and Michigan: He will visit Elkhart, Indiana on Thursday.

Trump skipped the White House Correspondents’ Dinner last month and instead campaigned in central Michigan.

“I love this state and I love the people of this state,” Trump told the enthusiastic crowd. “You may have heard I was invited to another event tonight, but I’d much rather be in Washington, Michigan than in Washington, D.C. right now, that I can tell you.” (As a lifelong Midwesterner, I have to say that the lifelong Manhattanite knows how to speak to my people.)

The president’s courting of voters in the Heartland is a shrewd political calculation by Team Trump. More than half of the 206 so-called “pivot” counties—areas that twice voted for Obama then switched to Trump in 2016—are located in the Midwest, as are four “pivot” states: Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Iowa. Hillary Clinton won Minnesota by fewer than 50,000 votes; Barack Obama won it by 225,000 votes in 2012.

Over the past decade, Midwestern states have been bleeding blue votes and politicians. With the exception of Minnesota, every single Midwestern state has a Republican governor (even my home state, the basket case Illinois) and Republicans control state houses throughout the Midwest except for Illinois. This once-reliably Democratic region is turning red faster than Elon Musk’s investors and Trump is only part of the reason why.

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/patrick-morrisey-wins-west-virginia-gop-senate-primary

West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey has won the Republican nomination to take on Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin III in November in what’s likely to be one of the most closely watched races in the country.

He took 35 percent of the vote in a six-way GOP primary field, besting Rep. Evan Jenkins and former Massey Energy CEO Don Blankenship who finished with 29 percent and 20 percent, respectively.

The defeat of Blankenship, a former convict, is a win for national Republicans who spent upward of a million dollars attacking him.

Indiana Senate race: Mike Braun wins GOP primary in huge upset over 2 sitting congressmen
https://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2018/05/08/indiana-primary-election-senate-race-results-braun-wins-over-congressmen-rokita-and-messer/572321002/

In a huge upset against two well-established names in Indiana Republican politics, wealthy businessman Mike Braun won Indiana’s high-stakes GOP Senate primary.

Braun, who fueled his bid with millions of dollars of his own money, defeated U.S. Reps. Luke Messer and Todd Rokita in what has been called the nation’s nastiest and most expensive U.S. Senate primary.

Trump-Endorsed Ohio Senate Candidate Jim Renacci Blows Out Four Opponents by Paula Boyard-
https://pjmedia.com/election/trump-endorsed-ohio-senate-candidate-jim-renacci-blows-out-opponents/

Congressman Jim Renacci, who touted President Trump’s endorsement during his campaign, blew out four opponents on Tuesday, paving the way for him to challenge incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown in November.

Republicans Renacci, Gibbons Battle for Trump Supporters in Heated Ohio Senate Race By Paula Boyard-
https://pjmedia.com/election/republicans-renacci-gibbons-battle-for-trump-supporters-in-heated-ohio-senate-race/

Tuesday is primary day in Ohio, and one of the most heated races in the state is for the Senate seat currently occupied by Democrat Sherrod Brown. Congressman Jim Renacci will face Cleveland investment banker Mike Gibbons in the GOP primary in their quest to take on the uber-liberal Brown in the fall. Both are trying to rally Trump supporters to their cause, hoping to win their votes on Tuesday. Renacci, an ardent fan of the president, cites President Trump’s endorsement as a reason for Trump voters to support him. Gibbons, also an ardent Trump supporter and the co-chair of his fundraising efforts in Ohio in 2016, says Trump supporters should vote for him. The president’s diehard fans are divided, while the candidates continue to exchange barbs—and lawsuits—in the days leading up to the election.

Renacci, who aligned himself with then-candidate Trump right before Republican National Convention, says he is the candidate who can best help to advance the president’s agenda. Since announcing that he’d be entering the Senate race, Renacci has received Trump’s explicit endorsement (via a tweet, of course) and has appeared numerous times with both Trump and Vice President Mike Pence. On Saturday Renacci sat at Trump’s right hand during a Cleveland forum on taxes.

Chris Schrimpf, spokesperson for Gibbons, told PJM, “Voters know that Mike Gibbons is the conservative outsider in this race.” He added that Gibbons is “not a career politician, unlike Jim Renacci.” Schrimpf said that Gibbons “also has a plan to have Mexico pay for the [border] wall.”

Gibbons, a political newcomer, entered the race to challenge conservative favorite Josh Mandel, the current state treasurer, in the primary. After Mandel dropped out, citing family reasons, Renacci, who had already announced he was running for governor of Ohio, announced that he was switching to the Senate race at the request of the White House. CONTINUE AT SITE

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/democrats-2018-senate-candidates-trouble-poll/

Insert all the appropriate caveats: It’s only early May, this is one poll, candidate quality matters, we don’t know what big issues or scandals or events will alter the political landscape between now and November, etcetera.

But this poll from Morning Consult should have the National Republican Senate Committee doing cartwheels, as this is a terrific time to be a GOP challenger with a “it’s time for a change” message, running in a red state against a Democrat incumbent. The “deserves reelection” numbers for these incumbents are abysmal:
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Does this mean that those Democratic incumbents are toast? Nope. A bunch of these senators have managed to hang on in much tougher political environments than this. But it is conceivable that in a tumultuous year with low presidential approval ratings and a ton of House Republican retirements, the GOP does pretty well in the Senate races.

Indiana (May 8) Democrat Senator Joe Donnelly is up for re-election. The Republicans are embroiled in a nasty fight, and a Trumpian Mike Braun may upend them. Also Republican Gregg Pence brother of Vice President Pence is running in District 6.

Ohio (May 8) Terminally boring Republican governor John Kasich is retiring and Dennis Kucinich (remember him?) is among the challengers. Democrat Senator Sherrod Brown is seeking reelection and so far appears safe.

West Virginia (May 8) Democrat Senator Joe Manchin, who was opposed to the Obama Iran deal is facing a tough fight.

Idaho (May 15) Republican Governor Butch Otter is term limited and retiring. A Republican is likely to win.

Nebraska (May 15) Gov. Pete Ricketts (R) is pretty safe for reelection.

Oregon (May 15) Democrat Governor Kate Brown appears safe for re-election.

Pennsylvania (May 15) Democrat Senator Bob Casey Jr.is a safe bet for re-election.

Arkansas (May 22) Republican Governor Asa Hutchinson is another safe bet for re-election.

Georgia (May 22) Republican Governor Nathan Deal is retiring with three worthy Republicans vying to replace him.

Kentucky (May 22) Republican Senator Rand Paul and Republican Senator Mitch McConnell are not running this year. There are five Republicans and one Democrat running for re-election to Congress.

TEXAS (May 22) Republicans Ted Poe, Jeb Hensarling, Joe Barton , Lamar Smith , Blake Farenthold are retiring. New faces will emerge from the primaries. Republicans Sam Johnson , John Culberson , Michael McCaul , Pete Olson , Will Hurd , Roger Williams , John Carter and Pete Sessions will see who their challengers are.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/01/indiana-senate-republicans-messer-rokita-braun-560708

GOP Reps. Luke Messer and Todd Rokita — personal and political rivals going back to their college days — have been locked in a bitter two-way fight for more than a year for the right to take on one of the most vulnerable Senate Democrats seeking reelection this fall.

Then along came Mike Braun.

The self-funding businessman emerged seemingly out of nowhere last fall and is now on the brink of dispatching Rokita and Messer by portraying them as a pair of interchangeable D.C. swamp creatures. Powering Braun’s effort is nearly $6 million of his own money that he’s loaned or given to his campaign to capture the nomination to face Sen. Joe Donnelly in the fall.

If Braun prevails next week — he is seen as the nominal favorite and has vastly outspent his opponents — it would stand as one of the first real surprises in a Republican primary this election cycle. It would also serve as a blunt demonstration of how anti-Washington, anti-incumbent sentiment could shape the outcome of the November elections.

“There’s not a lot of daylight between any of them on the issues,” GOP pollster Christine Matthews, who served as a strategist for former Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, said of the three candidates. “What Braun has been able to do is say, ‘The difference with me is I’m not a professional politician.’”