https://issuesinsights.com/2022/02/07/when-will-covid-19-become-endemic/
With pandemic fatigue becoming ever more intense, there is increasing speculation about when the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which causes COVID-19, might become “endemic” – a time when outbreaks will be more modest and manageable and we can “coexist” with the virus. That juncture has been described as when the virus has become “annoying but rarely deadly or disruptive.” Unfortunately, there are no quantitative milestones that tell us when we’ve arrived. It’s really a judgment by individuals and society, and prematurely concluding that we’ve reached endemicity and abandoning precautions can have perilous consequences.
Many observers cite influenza – the “flu” – as an example of an endemic infectious disease, so it’s useful to review its impacts. According to the Centers for Disease Control’s statistics, from 2012-2019 the flu virus annually caused about 31 million symptomatic illnesses, 400,000 hospitalizations, and 39,000 deaths in the U.S. Those high numbers are in spite of moderately good vaccines, with efficacy in the range of 40%-60%, and which need to be administered each year.
Apparently, that’s what we, as a society, consider manageable and acceptable; after all, we don’t impose lockdowns, mask requirements, or widespread vaccine mandates during the annual flu outbreaks.