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US policy-makers who are negotiating a return to the 2015 Iran nuclear accord (JCPOA), should be aware that the most effective predictor of Iran’s future behavior is its past behavior. Past performance – especially in the highly traditional Middle East – is a tangible and objective basis of assessment, while future behavior is subjective, speculative and fraught with uncertainty.
Ignoring the systematic and relentless anti-US track record of Iran’s Ayatollahs, since the 1978/79 revolution – which transformed Iran from “the American policeman of the Gulf” to a key epicenter of regional and global subversion, terrorism and wars – would be at the expense of regional and global stability, undermining vital US national security and economic interests.
However, the US Administration seems determined to conclude another accord with Iran, irrespective of Iran’s consistent track record of the fanatical anti-US education system, violation of agreements with the US and the Arab Gulf countries, and horrific violations of human rights and democracy. Add to that, Iran’s regional and global proliferation of subversion, terrorism, wars, conventional and non-conventional military technologies, and close ties with North Korea, Venezuela, Syria, Afghanistan’s Taliban, Al Qaeda, the Muslim Brotherhood, Hezbollah, Hamas and additional rogue entities.
US policy-makers consider the Ayatollahs credible partners for negotiation, amenable to peaceful-coexistence and power-sharing with their Arab Gulf States, notwithstanding the aforementioned track record, as well as Iran’s fueling the civil wars in Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, the persistent violent attempts by the Shiite Ayatollahs to topple every pro-US Sunni Arab regime, and the entrenchment of Iran’s drug-trafficking and terrorist cells in South and Central America.
Moreover, in order to advance negotiation with Iran, the US has waived the military and regime-change options, which is perceived by the Ayatollahs as weakness, as it would be by any rogue regime, especially in the Middle East.