https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/17465/china-iran
Sheikh Jarrah, the ostensible cause of the latest conflict in the Middle East, is not so complicated. It is a private rent dispute, caused by squatters and by Palestinian tenants who acquired protected tenancies (not ownership) during the period of Jordanian occupation in 1948-1967, when Jordan illegally sequestrated the property rights of Jewish landowners. The Palestinian tenants and squatters are refusing to pay their Israeli landlords rent for properties that have been in undisputed Jewish ownership since the middle of the 19th century….
The Ayatollahs have, since Iran’s Revolution of 1979, like their proxies, vowed the total destruction of Israel… This goal is also inscribed in the charters of Hamas, Hezbollah and the current Palestinian Authority under Mahmoud Abbas….
This agreement between China and Iran strengthened the hands of both countries to test the resolve of a Biden administration filled with Obama era appointees committed to two of his signature foreign policy errors, the Iran Nuclear Deal, and a dogmatic prioritisation of the so-called “Two State Solution” that is now dead and buried. With people such as Hady Amr, now the Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for “Israel-Palestine,” who implausibly Biden sent to “mediate” what cannot be mediated, hope dies. Amr is parti pris: someone who once said that he was “inspired by the Palestinian intifada.” He has in the past wrongly accused Israel of ethnic cleansing and apartheid….
Obama’s third signature error in foreign policy forms a bridge to the other set of dots to be joined up. Fifteen years ago, the many small islands and reefs in the South China Sea which are now China’s military bases with runways and ports, were uninhabited, many of them tidally submerged and marked with metal poles (which confer no territorial rights under UNCLOS – the United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea). It was mainly on Obama’s watch that this militarisation proceeded, unchallenged, when it could and should have been nipped in the bud… If the militarisation of the South China Sea is left intact, Communist China’s navy — the Peoples’ Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) — will soon have a second and secure southern approach to Taiwan for the invasion which it has threatened for so long….
Declaratory PLAN doctrine states that in the event of war, it holds at risk US assets from Guam to the far side of Hokkaido: hence US bases in Japan. The PLA has also threatened missile attacks on Australia, where key Five Eyes intelligence assets are situated. PLA planners must be aware that these are red lines as much as an attempt to invade Taiwan. Any such actions would trigger US escalation, as recent speeches by senior USN officers have confirmed. It appears that the Communist Chinese are throwing down a gauntlet to test our resolve….
But Communist China is not ten feet tall. As the recent failure of the PRC space station suggests, we should not automatically assume technological omnipotence. In any event, equipment does not equal capability. We should also remember, as Sun Tzu’s Art of War and the Thirty Six Stratagems of the Warring States/Three Kingdoms period both observe, that perception of power has a power of its own and that the most elegant defeat is the one incurred by the moral disarmament of the enemy….
Over recent months, the US Department of Defence has been engaged in a series of technical moves of significance… They have not been much remarked… but all can be found in the professional military literature, as they should be if they are to compose a credible deterrent to make Xi Jinping think again and stay his hand….
Iran… needs little encouragement to attack Israel, especially via its proxies, where it can claim “plausible deniability”. The current bout of violence and its sequel suit Xi Jinping’s command group well as a “Dead Cat” tactic: a misdirection so that eyes are off the prime area of interest for the PRC. That area is…. the recent illegal occupation of the South China Sea by this untraditional maritime power [and] the “continentalisation” of this sea-space…..
In short Xi Jinping’s command group must be aware that many windows are closing for it and that time is not on their side unless they can persuade the Free World to self-harm sufficiently that we disarm morally. For this, there is evidence of intent and, unfortunately, of current success….
Therefore the Free World must not fall for the Dead Cat gambit. We must firmly support Israel, the window of the west in the middle east, and we must maintain the Abraham Accords as the best road to normalisation in that region. If we ensure that we are all awake but not woke, we thereby can resist cultural subversion and moral disarmament through the PRC Ministry of State Security… ‘make friends for China’ strategy within our body politic. In these ways, the threat posed to us by the most patient, intelligent, malign and formidable enemy that we have faced, can be defeated….
By preference, a Free World united front of firm deterrence and ostracism may cause the Mandate of Heaven to move from Xi Jinping’s communist dictatorship, as it has from over-reaching Chinese leaders many times before…. We have a duty to the betrayed democrats of Hong Kong and by extension to all decent Chinese people to help them to liberate themselves. But for 20 years we have averted our eyes and so the hour is now late. Many in the Western establishments who were defeatist or complicit over the last two decades have much to answer for. Therefore, to prevail, the Free World may have to use force if needs be; and if force must be used, then sooner is safer than later.