https://victorhanson.com/history-and-ukraine-and-israel/
After the heroic late February and early March 2022 salvation of Kyiv by ad hoc Ukrainian forces, ebullience swept the West. Putin and his thuggish invasion were seemingly defeated and the war all but won. Amid such euphoria, billions of dollars of weapons poured into Ukraine. European and American politicos outdid each other in becoming the most ardent and generous supporters of Ukrainian resistance. Some European rhetoric of support was almost Churchillian.
The Russians were laughed at for their arrogant incompetence. Even when Russian troops persisted all through early 2023, the received wisdom remained that the looming “Spring Offensive” of 2023, replete with Western armor, artillery, and advisors, would slash through occupied Ukraine, expel the invaders, and teach Putin a lesson.
Some of us pointed to two problems with such naivete. One, historically, while it is true that the Russian military fares poorly invading, or fighting far abroad against, other countries (e.g., Japan 1905, Poland 1919–1921, Finland 1939, etc.), it eventually wins, despite blunders, stupidity, and brutality, in or anywhere near land that it considers Mother Russia, which may include Ukraine for a great deal of its history.
Two, Russia enjoys nearly four times the population, 30 times the territory, and 10 times the GDP of Ukraine. Such disparity is hard to overcome in a stationary border war, fought almost exclusively on the ground.
Consequently, many of us, while hoping Ukraine would expel the Russians back to their February 24, 2022 starting point, feared, despite massive Western supplies and training, it would slowly be ground down into a Verdun/Somme stalemate, in which losing one Ukrainian to kill or wound three Russians would still prove a losing proposition.
And here we are.
Ukrainians are still fighting heroically. But Europe, buffeted by natural gas cutoffs, inadequate munitions reserves, and upset over Ukrainian corruption, are not so loud or generous in their support.
The U.S. is sharply divided over its support, in part because those who most loudly call for defending the borders of Ukraine at nearly all costs are themselves either complicit in or indifferent to a now nonexistent southern American border. Its utter disappearance has resulted in eight million illegal aliens, many of whom are involved in drug smuggling, human trafficking, and cartel work, and all are completely unaudited.
In sum, history matters