RUTHFULLY YOURS

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1253711249084383232.html?refreshed=yes

Wrong both ways, for several reasons.

1/ The flu case fatality rate is calculated off a huge base – 60 million Americans in 2017/18 – and flu deaths may be undercounted for the same reason coronavirus deaths are supposedly undercounted – they mainly occur in old, sick people.

2/ We have a VACCINE for the flu. It is not perfect, but it can sharply reduce infections in some years, and it is generally widely distributed, especially to the people most at risk. That suppresses both the CFR and IFR for the flu.

3/ The 21% NYC antibody figure is likely low, both because it doesn’t foot with plausible figures from other places (generally lower, but in places where deaths have been far lower), and because it takes time for people to develop antibodies, so the figure usually rises anyway.

4/ NYC and NYS seem to have made counterproductive decisions, including heavy ventilator use and sending elderly COVID patients to nursing homes (!). Also, some NYC hospitals faced serious strain in late March (unlike almost anywhere else in the US). Hospital strain is dangerous.

5/ Add all this up, and the COVID death rate will likely settle into the 0.25%-0.4% range (1 in 250 people infected to 1 in 400). Far from 20 times higher than flu. Meanwhile, the median age of death is 78-80. And unlike the flu, #SARSCoV2 is basically not dangerous to children.

6/ As long as supposedly serious people are saying things like coronavirus is 20+ times as deadly as the flu, we’re going to have a hard time getting out of this mess.
Alex Berenson@AlexBerenson
 As long as supposedly serious people are saying things like coronavirus is 20+ times as deadly as the flu, we’re going to have a hard time getting out of this mess.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/opinion/coronavirus-lockdown.html

In 1976, the artist Saul Steinberg drew a cover for The New Yorker — “View of the World from Ninth Avenue” — that became an instant classic. You know the one: Manhattan heavily in the foreground, the Hudson River, a brownish strip called “Jersey,” the rest of the America vaguely in the distance.

It could almost be a map of the coronavirus epidemic in the United States.

Even now, it is stunning to contemplate the extent to which the country’s Covid-19 crisis is a New York crisis — by which I mean the city itself along with its wider metropolitan area.

As of Friday, there have been more Covid-19 fatalities on Long Island’s Nassau County (population 1.4 million) than in all of California (population 40 million). There have been more fatalities in Westchester County (989) than in Texas (611). The number of Covid deaths per 100,000 residents in New York City (132) is more than 16 times what it is in America’s next largest city, Los Angeles (8). If New York City proper were a state, it would have suffered more fatalities than 41 other states combined.

It isn’t hard to guess why. New York has, by far, the highest population density in the U.S. among cities of 100,000 or more. Commuters crowd trains, office workers crowd elevators, diners crowd restaurants. No other American city has the same kind of jammed pedestrian life as New York — Times Square alone gets 40 million visitors a year — or as many residents packed into high-rises. The city even has a neighborhood called Corona, which, it turns out, has among the highest rates of coronavirus infections.

Consider a thought experiment in which metropolitan New York weren’t just its own state, but its own country. What would the crisis for what remained of America look like, then? In this slightly smaller nation of a little more than 300 million people, the death toll would amount to about 7.5 per 100,000, slightly above Germany’s levels.

https://newcriterion.com/issues/2020/5/the-scab-the-wound-beneath

EXCERPTS:

An overriding theme of the historian Thucydides’ monumental history of the Peloponnesian War (431–404 B.C.) is the fragility of civilization. In extremis, when both the elites and masses lose their thin veneer of culture, society can turn feral quickly. During a horrific war, plague, or revolution, even a wealthy and sophisticated civilization such as that of the classical Greek city-states regresses in a second to its innate state. And what follows from these natural and man-made disasters is not pretty. Still, these calamities can be tragically instructional. Hypocrisies arise. Pretexts vanish. Fundamental but forgotten truths, easily masked in times of calm, reemerge. From Thucydides’ warnings, we can glean that even suburban elites in Range Rovers can in a day be reduced to tugging over toilet paper rolls at Whole Foods.

Of course, in historical terms, covid-19may prove a rookie virus in comparison to the still mysterious infection—typhus, smallpox, or typhoid?—that wiped out one quarter of the Athenian population along with its iconic sexagenarian leader Pericles. He was the architect of the very wartime strategy of forced withdrawal inside the walls of Athens that birthed the plague in the first place and took his life.

Thucydides’ accounts of the plague, the savage factionalism at Corcyra, the mass executions at Mytilene and Melos, and the disaster at Syracuse all remind us that what is considered normal in calm can be rendered absurd instantly in the cauldron of panic and death. Last month I saw what seemed to be a stylishly dressed woman in a Lexus buying toilet paper from her car window in the parking lot of a local Walmart from someone who appeared homeless, a social interaction rare in healthier times.

The pernicious coronavirus tore off an American scab and revealed suppurating wounds beneath. Take the central actor of this plague, China. For much of the twenty-first century, the American establishment’s foreign policy toward China, to the degree it was even formalized, was ethically and logically bankrupt. Yet the status quo remained unquestioned, given it rested on a rare alignment of both progressive and commercial self-interests.

Of course, Americans in general have had a long romance with China. They were never colonialists in China, at least in the manner of the Europeans. Over fifteen million Chinese, our erstwhile allies, were killed in World War II, many brutally slaughtered by our enemies, the Japanese.

More recently, Mao Zedong, arguably the most lethal mass murderer of the twentieth century—perhaps a greater killer than Attila the Hun, Genghis Khan, Tamerlane, Hitler, Stalin, and Pol Pot combined—held an attraction for the New Left of the 1960s. His cherubic smile, worker’s cap, peasant dress, cool aphorisms, and hatred of running-dog capitalists once captivated student protestors. Even Barack Obama’s acting White House communications director, Anita Dunn, in 2009 still swooned that Mao was one of her two favorite political “philosophers”:

And then the third lesson and tip actually come from two of my favorite political philosophers, Mao Tse-Tung and Mother Teresa—not often coupled with each other, but the two people that I turn to most to basically deliver a simple point, which is, you’re going to make choices. You’re going to challenge.