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A “senior official” of the Israel Defense Forces says Israel is on the way to a “decisive victory” in Gaza.
Military plans indicate that in two months Hamas will control only about 30% of Gaza, down from 40% in recent days. [In the current phase,] the IDF is destroying infrastructure both above and below ground.
The IDF assesses that Hamas
is in severe distress both militarily and civilian-wise. It has lost its command chain and is in a deadlock. Cracks are forming in the population’s dependency on the group, and pressure is mounting—but a full breakdown has not yet occurred. That collapse, they believe, may come through intensified military pressure and control over aid delivery.
Some say Israel can’t afford to keep fighting in Gaza because the situation of the twenty-or-so remaining live hostages is too dire, and Israel urgently has to make a deal for their release. The problem is that according to reports from Doha, Hamas—despite its own dismal situation—keeps stonewalling such a deal.
US envoy Steve Witkoff, who has been pushing hard for a deal in Doha, says: “What I have seen from Hamas is disappointing and completely unacceptable.”
Some in the Israeli security establishment have been saying all along that the hostages are so precious to Hamas as leverage over Israel that Hamas will never agree—unless compelled—to give all of them up.
As the above-quoted senior IDF official put it:
“Hamas will not return all the hostages at once—they’ll play a game and always keep some in their hands…. What drives Hamas to a deal is military pressure— that’s what has brought hostages back so far.”
… Asked what a military victory over Hamas would look like, the official outlined the following phases: destruction of Hamas’s military wing, dismantling of its governing capabilities, capture and retention of territory, and control over humanitarian aid while cutting Hamas off from it.
Hamas is in dire financial straits, too—“the worst…in its history, with government employees in Gaza receiving just 900 shekels (approximately $250) a month for the past four months.”