Hillary Clinton has vaulted to a solid lead in the presidential race following a Democratic Party convention where all the party heavies — President Barack Obama, husband and former President Bill Clinton, first lady Michelle Obama, Vice President Joe Biden and others applauded her greatness, her caring nature, her resolve, her readiness for the nation’s highest office and her achievement in smashing the “glass ceiling” to become the first woman to be nominated by a major U.S. party. Throw in her Republican opponent Donald Trump’s continuously shooting himself in the foot, and Hillary’s convention poll bounce becomes even greater. A host of fresh surveys from the last few days have given the former secretary of state a lead of between 3 and 9 points.
Never one to take elections for granted, Hillary and her team are making a strong effort to attract “never Trumpers,” encompassing many prominent members of the conservative movement, including its pro-Israel pundit class — from The Weekly Standard, the National Review, Commentary and other publications. On Tuesday, a Republican congressman from New York announced that he plans to vote for Clinton; several Republicans supporting Clinton spoke at the Democratic convention. When Republicans held their convention in Cleveland a week earlier, the Republican Governor of the state, John Kasich, stayed away. Ted Cruz, the Texas Senator who accumulated the second largest number of delegates at the Republican convention, refused to endorse Trump. The entire Bush family, including two former Republican Presidents, were 1,000 miles away and are clearly not planning to join the Trump team.
With the Republican Party in seeming disarray, and many Senate and House candidates keeping their distance from Trump, fearing the fallout of a disastrous defeat at the top of the ticket, the opportunity for Clinton to make inroads among Republican voters is significant. Over the last 20 years, the fortunes of Democrats in national elections have improved, as their vote share has increased among minority voters and college-educated suburban voters, particularly women. This year, Donald Trump is running very strong with white voters without a college degree (a 40-point margin in some surveys), but dramatically underperforming among whites with a college degree. This latter category is where the Clinton effort is focused. These suburban voters include a significant number of Jewish voters, most of them Democrats but a decent share of Republicans as well, in metro areas such as Philadelphia and Cleveland, and the three South Florida counties of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach. These three states — Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida — are essential for Trump to have any chance of winning an electoral college majority.