Notwithstanding all of the commentary to the contrary, the Iraqi army assisted by U.S. Special Forces is putting the Islamic State on the defensive in Iraq. In fact, the Iraqi army is poised to retake the northern province of Nineveh and may soon gain control of Mosul, the province’s largest city and a militant stronghold. This is the good news, but it is not the whole story.
Up until recently the goal of ISIS was to acquire and hold territory, to build a Caliphate under a state structure. However, with that state structure in disarray, the strategy has changed and with it, the potential terrorist danger has increased. It is now the case that ISIS has involved adherents in the spread of its extremist ideas and encouraging acolytes to attack wherever they might be.
The message from the Brussels’ murders reinforces the warning from Paris – four months earlier – that the Islamic State not only has the capability of deadly terrorist attacks in the heart of Europe, but that these attacks are part and parcel of a revised strategic vision.
From outposts remaining in Iraq and, most significantly, in Syria, ISIS can use refugee flows into Europe as a method for embedding terrorist cells. Moreover, these terrorist “sleepers” can easily find “safe houses” in sanctuary neighborhoods like Molenbeek in Brussels. It is estimated that about 5,000 Europeans have travelled to Iraq and Syria to train and several hundred have since returned.