https://townhall.com/columnists/byronyork/2023/05/31/the-pregame-is-over-for-trump-vs-desantis-n2623864
There’s been a huge amount of commentary on former President Donald Trump’s big lead over Gov. Ron DeSantis in national polls. In the current RealClearPolitics average of polls, Trump has a 30.8-point lead — 53.2% to DeSantis’ 22.4%. That lead, while enormous, has been shrinking in the last week; on May 20, it was 36.9 points. Now, it’s six points smaller. That is something to watch in the days ahead.
But the Republican presidential nomination will not be awarded on the basis of national polls. It is, instead, a series of state contests that begins with the Iowa caucuses, moves on to the New Hampshire primary, then the South Carolina primary, then Nevada, and on from there. The early contests are incredibly important; by the time the race leaves South Carolina, the ultimate winner is usually pretty clear.
So what is the situation in Iowa? Does Trump have a huge lead there, too? Or are Iowa Republicans spreading their support among the growing field — DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, Mike Pence, Vivek Ramaswamy and others? A new poll from Iowa suggests the answer is the former — Trump appears to be very, very strong in the first state that will vote in 2024.
The poll, conducted May 19-22 by Emerson College Polling, found Trump with 61.7% support, followed by DeSantis with 20.1%. Pence and Haley were tied at 4.5%, with Scott at 2.1% and Ramaswamy at 2.1%.
“Trump’s lead in the caucus reflects his numbers in Emerson’s March New Hampshire primary poll, where he held a 41-point lead over DeSantis,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of the poll, in a press release. “The former president’s base continues to be voters under 35, 75% of whom support Trump, and voters without a college degree: 70% support Trump. DeSantis’ support is higher among voters with a postgraduate degree, with 29% support, still trailing Trump’s 37% with this group.”