Financial markets are humbling. After spending forty-eight years working in the industry, one would think I would have learned some, if not many, of the answers. Not so. In my late teens, I met the president of a regional brokerage firm based in Boston. He told me that he had been in the business for several years and claimed he knew less each year. That is familiar territory. Financial markets are akin to discoveries about space. Just as boundaries to the latter keep expanding, complexities to the former become more ubiquitous. Just when we think we know the answer, something else gets added to the mix.
One ingredient this year is the campaign for President and the possible nominees. A recent Barron’s article spoke to the “Bernie and Donald factors.” They included a chart which contrasted the spike in their respective polls, beginning late last year, with a collapse in the S&P 500. Coincidence? I don’t know. Isolationism is troublesome to markets. While neither man campaigns as an isolationist, they both advocate policies that lead that way. Mr. Trump talks of imposing tariffs on goods imported from China. Senator Sanders recently stated: “Unfettered free trade has been a disaster for working Americans.” While the odds that either man will win the Presidency may not be high, it is impossible to avoid the fact that the popularity of both reflect the thinking of millions of Americans. Voters should not ignore the positive contributions that free trade and globalization have brought to man’s well being. To the extent the policies of Mr. Trump and Senator Sanders have economic consequences, they will be reflected in financial markets.