A Strong El Niño in 2023? Not Likely. By Robert Cutler

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2023/05/a_strong_el_nio_in_2023_not_likely.html

Global warming completely stopped in 2018.  Temperatures will likely remain steady until 2025 and may decline slightly by 2030.  A strong El Niño in 2023 is unlikely.  I’ll explain all of my predictions — after we hear from the experts.

NOAA recently predicted a 55% chance of a strong El Niño in late 2023.  The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) threw more fuel on the fire when it announced, “There is a 98% likelihood that at least one of the next five years, and the five-year period as a whole, will be the warmest on record.”  Obviously, the MSM had a field day with this.  Take for example this headline from USA Today: “Scientists warn an El Niño is likely coming that could bring scorching heat to Earth.”

Rather than taking the well worn path of pointing out flaws in the predictions of NOAA, the IPCC, or the WMO, I’ll instead show how the sun is likely responsible for almost every detail in global temperatures over the last 125 years, and that it is also responsible for triggering strong El Niños.

Two empirical, or black-box, models were created to predict global temperature.  The first model uses solar magnetic field data from the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO).  The second model uses sunspot data from WDC-SILSO, the Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels.  Both predictions will be compared to global temperature anomaly data from NOAA.

Solar magnetic field data collection began in 1976.  The complete WSO dataset can be viewed in a single graphic, often referred to as a butterfly diagram.  It looks complicated, but it’s really not.  It’s just a plot of solar magnetic field intensity over time as a function of the sun’s latitude.  The two colors represent north and south polarity magnetism.  Unlike the Earth, where magnetic north has conveniently stayed in the Northern Hemisphere for the last 780,000 years, the sun’s magnetic field changes polarity every 11 years.

What to Do and Why It Matters By J.B. Shurk

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2023/05/what_to_do_and_why_it_matters.html

Among the sharp-witted reader comments that come my way, some clonk me on the head with reasonable gripes that take a couple of forms: (1) sure, Shurk, the country is a mess, but what precisely are we going to do about it?  Or more despondently: (2) Given how awful everything is, how could anything we do possibly matter?

I would like to address the second question first by stating emphatically: what you do matters tremendously.  Your efforts influence others in ways you may never know.

As but a single illustration of this truth, consider this message from a young woman that was reposted to a comment thread at The Conservative Treehouse:

My heart goes out to the men and women who have been awake for years if not decades.  I cannot imagine the frustration and hopelessness you must have felt when you were literally watching the world burn with no one to talk to.  We’re here now and we are awake.  Sorry we’re late.

If those fifty words don’t give you a bit of a jolt, check yourself for a pulse.  The moment we stop believing that our actions can make a difference in this world is the moment we thank our enemies for having dug the six-foot hole up ahead.  When we refuse to surrender and force our enemies to keep digging, then the only question that matters is this: who will get tired first?  

Even when you feel alone, there are people watching and wondering whether you will hold the line.  Some of those people are even carrying shovels.  But over time, your resilience changes minds.  Diggers throw down their tools to join sides with the people who refuse to go away.  It is an enduring certainty that all movements for great change begin with a smattering of strong-willed truth-tellers who seed the ground with inspiration before a harvest of raw courage sweeps the land.  Nobody can keep you from being that seed.  Perseverance is its own reward.

John Brennan, Enemy of the People Will he ever be held accountable? by David Harsanyi

https://www.frontpagemag.com/john-brennan-enemy-of-the-people/

The just-released Durham report confirmed that the FBI not only failed to corroborate the Steele dossier, Hillary Clinton’s oppo-doc against former President Donald Trump, but it regularly ignored existing, sometimes dispositive, evidence to keep the investigation alive. Some officials were credulous. Others were devious. But no one “stole” our democracy — other than perhaps intelligence officials and the journalists who helped feed the collective hysteria over Russia.

John Brennan, Hamas-loving authoritarian and partisan propagandist, almost surely knew it was a con from the start. Yet he spent four years on television sounding like a deranged subreddit commenter. Even after privately admitting he knew there was no collusion, Brennan kept lying and using his credentials to mislead the public.

From John Durham’s report:

“CIA Director John Brennan and Deputy Director David Cohen were interviewed by the Office and were asked about their knowledge of any actual evidence of members of the Trump campaign conspiring or colluding with Russian officials. When Brennan was provided with an overview of the origins of the Attorney General’s Review after Special Counsel Mueller finding a lack of evidence of collusion between the Trump campaign and Russian authorities, Brennan offered that ‘they found no conspiracy.’”

As Durham points out, even after Special Counsel Robert Mueller delivered his report, and after Brennan admitted no one found a conspiracy between Russia and the Trump campaign, the former head of the CIA went on air with MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough, another all-star election “denier,” and claimed that he “suspected there was more” to collusion between the Trump campaign and Russian President Vladimir Putin than Mueller had let on.

Fake History and Redistributing Wealth Welcome to a primitive notion of “justice”. by Bruce Thornton

https://www.frontpagemag.com/fake-history-and-redistributing-wealth/

Calls for reparations payments for the descendants of slaves and colonized peoples, the “latest obsession of the radical left,” as The Hill puts it, are currently growing, as is the tab. For example, San Francisco is proposing paying $5 million to each black resident, along with a guaranteed income of $97,000 for 250 years, and a home for a dollar. California is proposing cash payments of up to $1.2 million at a cost of $800 billion–three times the state’s annual budget. Not to be left out of the bidding, the Feds are asking for $14 trillion. But sponsor Rep. Cori Bush claims that is nowhere near the $97 trillion owed to blacks for slavery and Jim Crow.

This combination of obsession and grift also has infected England. On the eve of his coronation, Charles III was served a statement from the “commonwealth indigenous leaders.” They called on the new king “to acknowledge the horrific impacts on and legacy of genocide and colonization,” and to “redistribute the wealth that underpins the crown back to the peoples from whom it was stolen.” Given the extent and duration of the British Empire, that tab will no doubt be astronomical.

The rationale for this prohibitively expensive largess is a crude, Orwellian politicized history of the sort the left is famous for. The current proposals are unlikely to happen, but they are nonetheless racist and divisive, a testimony to how badly we are teaching history and civics––despite how dangerous to the public weal such neglect can be.

In practical terms, these schemes have numerous problems. How will eligibility be determined? Will state and federal governments investigate the genealogy of every American to determine if their ancestors were slave-owners? And what about the multiple millions of descendants of immigrants, including ethnic Africans, who came after the Civil War? Just in California there are more than 15 million ethnic Hispanics guiltless of American slavery and Jim Crow segregation.

Other questions abound. Will foreign-born blacks or their descendants be eligible? How about mixed-race Americans? Will the payments be means-tested? Or will the programs rely on “systemic racism” rhetorical sleight-of-hand to avoid these complications? In that view, given that all blacks have suffered,  and given that all so-called “white people,” no matter how poor, are born with “white privilege,” all people of pallor should pay. And since tax-revenues will be used to fund the payments, all ethnicities, with their own histories of oppression and injustice, will have to pay their fellow citizens who never suffered slavery.

160-Plus Retired Military Brass Urge Congress To Root Out DOD’s Poisonous ‘Diversity’ And ‘Equity’ Programs By: Samuel Boehlke

https://thefederalist.com/2023/05/24/160-plus-retired-military-brass-urge-congress-to-root-out-dods-poisonous-diversity-and-equity-programs/

More than 160 retired generals and admirals recently signed a letter calling on Congress to remove so-called diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programs from the Department of Defense and remove funding for such programs from the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA).

“As our Nation faces looming threats from ‘foreign’ adversaries/enemies, our military is under assault from a culture war stemming from ‘domestic’ ideologically inspired political policies and practices. … Our military must be laser focused on one mission — readiness, undiminished by the culture war engulfing our country,” Flag Officers 4 America wrote in the letter addressed to Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Armed Services Subcommittee Chairman Mike Rogers, and Defense Appropriations Subcommittee Chairman Ken Calvert.

The signatories — which included former National Security Advisor John Poindexter, Medal of Honor recipient Maj. Gen. James E. Livingston, and former Deputy Undersecretary of Defense William Gerald Boykin — expressed concern about how divisive and discriminatory DEI policies affect national security. So-called “equity,” they wrote, “sounds benign, but in practice it lowers standards. While equality provides equal opportunities, equity’s goal is equal outcomes.”

The officers argued that equal opportunity and meritocracy provide the greatest foundation for both equality and national defense, while the cultural Marxism promoted by DEI policies is a domestic threat to our national security.

“To achieve equal outcomes using identity group characteristics, standards must be lowered to accommodate the desired equity outcomes. Lower standards reduce performance where even slight differences in capability impact readiness and can determine war fighting mission success or failure,” they wrote. Furthermore, obsession with identity causes “friction and distrust in the ranks, damaging unit cohesion, teamwork and unity of effort, further degrading readiness.”

Instead of DEI, the signatories advocated for a return to longstanding meritocratic military recruitment standards, pointing to a long history of true inclusivity and diversity that accompanied those standards.

“Service Members (SMs) were judged not by the color of their skin but by their character, duty performance, and potential,” the officers explained. “Meritocracy, coupled with equal opportunity, created conditions for all to advance and excel, which stimulates healthy competition, thereby raising standards.”

Many Of Our Elected Officials Are Unfit To Serve — Medical Problems Are Sometimes The Cause Henry I. Miller

https://issuesinsights.com/2023/05/24/many-of-our-elected-officials-are-unfit-to-serve-medical-problems-are-sometimes-the-cause/

Two U.S. senators recently became incapacitated – John Fetterman, D-Pa., with severe depression that required a months-long hospitalization, and whose outcome is uncertain; and Dianne Feinstein, D-Ca., who had a shingles infection that developed into encephalitis, from which she has not fully recovered. (And at age 89, she is unlikely to.) Marked by inflammation and swelling of the brain, post-shingles encephalitis can leave patients with lasting memory or language problems, sleep disorders, bouts of confusion, mood disorders, headaches and difficulty walking.

Feinstein was absent from Washington and unable to fulfill her political responsibilities for months, leaving me and other Californians without half our Senate representation. She has returned to Washington but is confused and seemingly bewildered, even denying her protracted absence. The New York Times described Feinstein’s return this way on May 18: “The grim tableau of her re-emergence on Capitol Hill laid bare a bleak reality known to virtually everyone who has come into contact with her in recent days: She was far from ready to return to work when she did, and she is now struggling to function.”

This isn’t the first time that such situations have arisen, of course. Sen. Pete Domenici, R-N.M., was sufficiently forthright to reveal in 2007 that he had been diagnosed with frontotemporal lobar degeneration – an inexorably progressive, incurable disease characterized by the wasting away of the frontal and temporal lobes of the brain. Because of the behavioral changes and dementia that accompany this condition, Domenici announced that he would not seek reelection the following year.

I had great sympathy for Domenici, but should the people of New Mexico have been represented for another year by a senator who admitted to suffering from progressive dementia? I believe he should have resigned at the time his illness was diagnosed.

The World Economy Needs to Get Its Growth Back Without free-market policies that encourage dynamism, the current drift may persist for years. By David Malpass

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-world-economy-needs-to-get-its-growth-back-group-of-seven-developing-countries-debt-financing-yield-curve-private-sector-innovation-4113e720?mod=opinion_lead_pos6

The global economy is facing dangerously slow growth of 2% or lower. As I near the end of my term as World Bank president, I’m discouraged by the lack of resolve and action. I worry that slow growth may persist for years.

The world is digesting the huge buildup of government debt relative to gross domestic product, normalization of artificially low interest rates, and a system allocating capital away from small businesses and toward bond issuers, especially governments and the largest businesses. The result is reduced dynamism at home and fragility abroad.

The challenges are unprecedented. Government debt levels, both current and projected, are an order of magnitude larger than in previous crises, undercutting growth. The U.S. national debt is projected to grow toward 200% of GDP, not counting the excessive debt of some state and local governments and their opaque public pension liabilities. Governments in Japan and Europe also have large debt overhangs, especially troubling given their declining populations.

Excessive government debt raises doubts about whether the private economy can produce enough output and profit to carry the burden. Central banks in advanced economies have delayed the day of fiscal reckoning through postmonetarism—borrowing from the private sector to buy trillions in government bonds to flatten the yield curve. But this leaves them with monumentally oversized balance sheets and costly losses on their bonds. The distortions may delay recovery for years.

The Ron DeSantis Challenge The Florida Governor has a strong record. Can he offer voters a larger national vision?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ron-desantis-presidential-race-2024-donald-trump-florida-90b2c2e4?mod=opinion_lead_pos1

The unfortunate political reality today is that the U.S. is marching toward a 2024 rematch between two aging Presidents, Joe Biden and Donald Trump, that most Americans say they don’t want. This great country can do better, but it’s up to voters to spare us from the divisive oldsters who desperately need each other to win a second term.

At least for now, the Democratic Party is defaulting to 80-year-old President Biden. But even most Democrats prefer a new nominee, and nearly 30% are making that point by telling pollsters they support the vanity candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. or Marianne Williamson. It’s not far-fetched that Mr. Biden will decide not to run, or that some serious candidate might challenge the President if there’s a deep recession, or he shows even more noticeable physical or mental decline.

***

Republicans are at least getting a better choice as a variety of candidates enter the presidential race. They all have their merits and deserve a hearing as the campaign unfolds. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis joined the fray on Wednesday and, judging by the polls and his financial backing to date, he is the biggest threat to Mr. Trump.

The 44-year-old has an impressive resume: son of middle-class parents, Yale baseball captain, Harvard law school, Navy veteran including a tour in Iraq, and a three-term Member of Congress. But he has made his mark politically with his record as the two-term Governor of booming Florida.

Can DeSantis clear the giant orange roadblock? The Florida governor faces a fiendish challenge: beating Trump without alienating his voters? Charles Lipson

https://thespectator.com/politics/desantis-giant-orange-roadblock-trump-2024-musk/

To win the Republican nomination, you have to knock out Donald Trump. That’s no easy task — polls currently show him leading by over thirty points among Republican voters. But the task is even harder because anyone who defeats Trump must win over his supporters to win the general election. That is Ron DeSantis’s double challenge: beating Trump without alienating his voters.

Trump will make both tasks as hard as possible. He is not just the least graceful loser in modern American history, he has retired the trophy. (Elon Musk retired the trophy for worst media rollout of a live presidential event. Unfortunately for DeSantis, it was his grand announcement.)

Why do Trump’s primary opponents fear his wrath? Because his vitriol sways his followers, and he still has a lot of them. Republicans running for president know that Trump stands between them and the nomination. They know, too, that Trump’s political career has been focused on his opponents’ defects, not his own accomplishments. He will do everything he can to smear his opponents, whatever their party.

This rhetoric rallies the base but holds little appeal for independents, who are crucial to winning the general election. But to get to the general election, you have to get past the giant orange roadblock. The first step is to become the leading alternative to Trump. Right now, that’s Florida’s successful governor, Ron DeSantis, so it’s worth looking closely at his strengths and weaknesses.

DeSantis’s strengths are formidable, beginning with his electoral victories and effectiveness in office. His political success is straightforward. He turned a purple state into a solid red one, winning a massive reelection victory and carrying a supermajority into the state house.

His policies are a mixture of traditional conservative and Trumpian populist measures. That program overlaps with the former president’s but differs in two crucial ways. First, DeSantis managed to pass his priorities into law, thanks to his success with down-ballot candidates. Primary voters will note that he didn’t compromise to win those victories, either. Second, DeSantis took hold of state agencies and got them to implement his policies, not obstruct or delay them. He governed.

Beyond those overarching achievements, DeSantis has a long list of specific accomplishments to run on.

Economic growth tops the list. Under DeSantis, Florida has become is the national poster child for economic growth, business formation, and in-migration from high-tax, high-regulation states like New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania and Illinois, all governed by Democrats. While Florida ranks top for inward migration, Gavin Newsom’s California wins the U-Haul Prize for outward migration.

Also high on the list is his pandemic success. DeSantis kept Florida schools and businesses open during most the pandemic. Other states shut down, under strong pressure from the federal bureaucracy and iron-fisted “guidance” from the CDC. Florida resisted and proved right. As the governor will remind voters, the bureaucracies that shut them down their lives were part of the Executive Branch, and that branch was led by Donald Trump during the darkest days of Covid.

DeSantis won’t have any trouble getting his message out. He can raise a ton of campaign money, thanks to his success in Florida and his lead position as Trump’s opponent. He won’t have any trouble convincing Republican primary voters he is tough as nails and ready to go up against powerful, entrenched interests. His slogan, “Never back down,” says it, and his fight against Disney backs it up.

DeSantis can also credibly claim he represents a new generation of Republican leaders. That’s not because he looks decades younger than Trump and a millennium younger than Biden. It’s also DeSantis’s agenda. His program is all about the country’s next steps forward, an attribute he shares with every Republican candidate except one.

Is America a Christian Country? Diane Bederman

https://dianebederman.com/is-america-a-christian-country/

Tucker Carlson and Marjorie Taylor Green are two of many Conservatives who talk about America as a Christian country. Is that correct?

How will that sit with people like President Donald Trump? Will President Trump’s family feel welcome in that country? His daughter, son-in-law and grandchildren are Orthodox Jews. How could they promote a Christian country?  How could President Trump?

I fear if Conservatives start promoting America as a Christian country, they will be undermining the Constitution and the Declaration of Independence. They could divide Conservatives over religion and provide Democrats with a sledge hammer. Is that what the Republicans want?

Dividing America on religious lines is exactly what the Founding Fathers wanted to prevent. They intentionally stated America would be a secular country. Period. They had experienced living in countries that had a stated religion and had gone to wars over religion.

Many of the earliest pilgrims who settled the “New England” of America in early 17th century were Puritan refugees escaping religious persecutions in Europe.

These Puritans viewed their emigration from England as a virtual re-enactment of the Jewish exodus from Egypt. To them, England was Egypt, the king was Pharaoh, the Atlantic Ocean was the Red Sea, America was the Land of Israel, and the Indians were the ancient Canaanites. They were the new Israelites, entering into a new covenant with God in a new Promised Land.

Thanksgiving—first celebrated in 1621, a year after the Mayflower landed—was initially conceived as a day parallel to the Jewish Day of Atonement, Yom Kippur; it was to be a day of fasting, introspection, prayer and gratitude.