https://issuesinsights.com/2023/05/25/the-republican-primary-is-wide-open-and-thats-a-good-thing/
“In our view, healthy competition is good. Arguments and debates are clarifying. Primary battles are revealing. Which is why so few early front-runners end up capturing the nomination. Also, no matter what happens in 2024, Trump will eventually have to make room for the next generation of conservative leaders, and the primaries let them move into the spotlight now. So, the idea of short-circuiting the process now is short-sighted.”
After working hard to keep Ron DeSantis from entering the presidential primary at all, Donald Trump now is trying to make the case that the Florida governor has no chance of winning.
Trump might believe it – though his barrage of attacks against DeSantis suggests otherwise. But anyone who thinks that the Republican primaries are over long before they even get started needs a lesson in history.
When news broke earlier this week about DeSantis’ plan to enter the race, Trump immediately posted a series of links on Truth Social. One led to an article about Trump’s lead in the polls, another to a Gateway Pundit article telling DeSantis to stand down “for the good of the country.” Still another to a Fox News segment in which Brett Baier said that “right now former President Trump controls the environment, he controls the base, and he controls the messaging” and that “something has to change dramatically” for DeSantis or anyone else to have a chance.
But remember. It’s not even June. The Iowa caucuses are still seven months away. The conventions are more than a year in the future. And polls this early on are notoriously unreliable as a predictor of the eventual nominee, much less who will end up winning the election the following November.
Don’t believe it? Well, among Democrats, in the past nine open elections, polls from January through June in the year before those elections accurately predicted the nominee just three times.