Obama’s Terror Sangfroid The threat isn’t ‘existential,’ unless you’re at Starbucks.

President Obama took pains in his State of the Union speech Tuesday to warn Americans not to exaggerate the threat from terrorists. “As we focus on destroying ISIL,” he said, using an alternative acronym for Islamic State (ISIS), “over-the-top claims that this is World War III just play into their hands.”

On Monday ISIS murdered 51 people in suicide attacks in Baghdad and other Iraqi cities. On Tuesday an ISIS suicide bomber in Istanbul killed 10 German and one Peruvian tourists. On Thursday two people were killed and 23 injured by an ISIS suicide bomber near a Starbucks coffee shop in Jakarta.

This bloody spate follows last month’s murder of 14 office workers in San Bernardino by an ISIS husband-and-wife team, November’s Paris massacre by ISIS of 130 people, the killing a day earlier of some 43 people in Beirut, and October’s downing by ISIS of a Russian jetliner over Egypt, in which 224 civilians perished. Last June’s attack at a Tunisian beach resort, in which 38 mainly British tourists were murdered, is already beginning to feel like a distant memory.

14 Politics Election 2016 A Republican Debate Divided: the Leaders and the Rest As Trump and Cruz face off, five others jockey to be an alternativeBy Gerald F. Seib

There wasn’t one Republican presidential debate going on Thursday night in South Carolina, but rather two. And in that sense, the debate neatly and succinctly summarized this year’s unusual race.

The first debate was between the two unlikely front-runners, Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. After months of dancing around each other—and in some cases essentially supporting each other—in crystallizing antiestablishment anger, the two now know they are fishing from the same pond with less than three weeks to go before voting begins. And they conducted themselves accordingly.

The night’s second, parallel debate involved the other five aspirants on the stage— Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie and John Kasich—who seemed uncertain whether their mission was to go after the two top dogs or emerge from the rest of the pack as the alternative to them. By and large, they chose the latter course.
So Mr. Trump repeated, volubly and at some length, his assertion that Mr. Cruz, a Texas senator, might not be eligible to be president because he was born in Canada. Mr. Cruz responded by saying that his status under the Constitution isn’t in doubt, and charging that the businessman Mr. Trump fully agreed until he felt threatened by a Cruz rise in the polls.

“The Constitution hasn’t changed,” Mr. Cruz said. “But the poll numbers have.”

For his part, Mr. Cruz embraced anew his assertion that Mr. Trump embodies “New York values,” which, he said, are “socially liberal or pro-abortion or pro-gay marriage.” To a conservative debate audience in the conservative state of South Carolina, he added: “Not a lot of conservatives come out of Manhattan.”

Attacks in Indonesia Mark Expansion for Islamic State Coordinated assault in Jakarta raises fears of return to violence in AsiaBy Ben Otto and Tom Wright

JAKARTA, Indonesia—Attackers tied to Islamic State marked a new battlefield in the extremist group’s global expansion, terrorizing the Indonesian capital and killing two people in a suicide assault.

The coordinated gunfire-and-bomb attack, in which all five assailants also died, raised fears of a return of Islamist-inspired violence in parts of Asia that had largely subdued an earlier generation of militants.

The rise of Islamic State has drawn hundreds of Southeast Asia militants to Syria and Iraq—some 600 from Indonesia and Malaysia alone, authorities estimate. Though the numbers are small compared with Western Europe, they are bigger than the cadre of Asian militants that was forged in Afghanistan in an earlier decade.

And extremist leaders from Indonesia to the Philippines have pledged loyalty to its self-declared caliphate.
Security officials fear Islamic State’s growth is inspiring local radicals to become more violent at home to draw attention and lay claim to Islamic State leadership in the region. “There has been clamor among the ISIS community in Indonesia…to do something to show ISIS central leadership that Indonesia is important also,” said Todd Elliott, a terrorism analyst from Concord Consulting, referring to Islamic State.

The Jakarta attackers came from a group in Solo, on Indonesia’s main island of Java, that had been in contact with Islamic State in Syria, Indonesian officials said. Deputy Police Chief Budi Gunawan said communications had been detected, but didn’t elaborate.

Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attacks on its social-media accounts, according to the SITE Intelligence Group, which monitors global jihadist activity. But it wasn’t clear whether the Jakarta attackers had actual training from the group.

Heavily Armed Islamic Extremists Attack Peacekeepers’ Base in Somalia Suicide car bomb followed by gunfire as militants stormed the compound, says military official

MOGADISHU, Somalia—Heavily armed fighters from the Islamic extremist group al-Shabaab attacked a base for African Union peacekeepers in southwestern Somalia on Friday, blasting their way into the compound and exchanging fire with peacekeepers, a Somali military official said.

Dozens of al-Shabaab fighters started a complex attack on the military base which is run by Kenyan troops who are part of the African Union force in the town of El-Ade, not far from the Kenyan border, Ahmed Hassan told The Associated Press by phone from Elwak, a town near the scene of the latest attack.

The attack started with a suicide car bomb, and then heavy gunfire was heard as militants stormed into the base, he said.

Fighting is still going on inside the base, he said. He had no details about any casualties.

France Moves to Better Coordinate Its Antiterrorism Efforts French intelligence agencies to share information and resources By Matthew Dalton

PARIS—France on Thursday said it is moving to increase cooperation between its domestic and overseas intelligence services, pushing to break down bureaucratic barriers that have hindered its efforts to prevent terrorist attacks.

The government has been seeking to bolster its antiterrorism infrastructure since Islamist militants killed 130 people in Paris in November and another 17 a year ago. A weak point, security analysts say, is the lack of coordination across the multitude of French intelligence agencies, including the police, the country’s foreign intelligence service, its counterespionage agency and a military intelligence directorate.

The French government decided “to deepen coordination between interior and exterior intelligence services in France as well as overseas…particularly from transit zones and sanctuaries where terrorists gather who want to commit acts on our territory,” President François Hollande’s office said after the government’s weekly cabinet meeting.

France, like other Western governments, is scrambling to gather information on Islamic State’s attack planning in Syria, where hundreds of French citizens are still fighting in the ranks of the militant group. France ramped up that effort even before Islamic State operatives from France and Belgium slipped into Europe to sow carnage on the streets of Paris on Nov. 13.

Israel Quietly Courts Sunni States Shared animosity toward Tehran fosters a new push for closer ties By Rory Jones

Growing tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran have raised hopes in Israel that officials can build closer ties with the Gulf monarchies based on their shared animosity toward Tehran.

Led by Dore Gold, director-general of the foreign ministry, Israel has stepped up efforts to mend and improve ties in the region—all in a bid to counter Iranian influence and the threat of Islamic extremism.

A long-standing hawkish ally of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Mr. Gold said Israel and Sunni Arab states face a shared threat in Iran.

“Clearly there’s been a convergence of interests between Israel and many Sunni Arab states given the fact that they both face identical challenges in the region,” Mr. Gold told The Wall Street Journal.

The recent torching of the Saudi Arabian Embassy in Tehran—and diplomatic fallout between the Persian nation and Arab Gulf states—have underlined how common ground appears to be growing.

Iran’s nuclear deal with the U.S. and other foreign powers in July helped spur Israeli efforts to further develop back-channel relations with Arab states, Israeli officials say.

Mr. Netanyahu fought the deal for fear it would encourage Iran to further support military proxies in Yemen and Syria, a concern shared by Sunni Arab states such as Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies.

“What we have seen in the past six months is an intensification of the relationship [with Sunni Arab states],” a senior Israeli official said. “Israel is on the same side.”

Terror Threat Increases on U.S. Southern Border see note

Janet Levy,Los Angeles writes

“More Pakistanis and Afghans (including 4 know Islamic State operatives) on the terror watch carrying American passports entered the United States in October than in the prior 12 month period. These potential jihadists are being transported on remote farm roads instead of interstates and being stashed in Acala, Texas, a ghost town outside of El Paso within easy access of a state highway.Judicial Watch (JW) reports the existence of an ISIS camp within a few miles from El Paso and another camp within proximity of Deming and Columbus, New Mexico.Reportedly, Texas Congressman (Beto O’Rourke) contacted local FBI, Homeland Security Investigations and Border Patrol officers in an effort to identify and possibly intimidate sources that may have been used by JW to break the story of the nearby ISIS camps.There is growing cooperation at our southern border between organized crime and terrorist groups, including Hezbollah, to finance terrorism, launder money and smuggle people and drugs into the U.S.See the report below from New York Analysis of Policy and Government. ”

More Pakistanis and Afghans, including those of military age, carrying U.S. passports, and on the terror watch list illegally entered the United States in the first month of this fiscal year (October) than in all of FY2015 (September 2014 to October 2015), According to a San Diego Reader report.

Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-California) in a recent letter to Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson, stated:
“It is routinely said that there is no ‘specific and credible information about an attack on the homeland.’ Despite this assertion, the Southern land border remains vulnerable to intrusion and exists as a point of vulnerability. And evidently there are criminal organizations and individuals with the networks and the knowhow to facilitate illegal entry into the United States without regard for one’s intentions or status on a terror watch list. The detention of two Pakistani nationals underscores the fact that any serious effort to secure our homeland must include effective border security and immigration enforcement.”
According to the San Diego Reader, “Muhammad Azeem and Muktar Ahmad, both in their 20s, surrendered to U.S. Border Patrol agents in September, according to Immigration and Customs Enforcement. One was listed on the Terrorist Screening Database for ‘associations with a known or suspected terrorist. The other was a positive match for derogatory information in an alternative database,’ according to Hunter’s letter. Azeem and Ahmad are among dozens of men – described by Border Patrol agents as “military age and carrying U.S. cash” who began entering the U.S. through a Tijuana-based human-smuggling pipeline in September.”

MY SAY: JANUARY 23, 1968 REMEMBER THE PUEBLO?

It was also an election year and Papa Kim, the present tyrant’s daddy humiliated America.

On January 23, 1968, the USS Pueblo, a Navy intelligence vessel, engaged in a routine surveillance of the North Korean coast was intercepted by North Korean patrol boats. The North Koreans captured lightly armed vessel and demanded surrender of its crew. The Americans attempted to escape, and the North Koreans opened fire, wounding the commander and two others. With capture inevitable, the Americans stalled for time, destroying the classified information aboard while taking further fire. Several more crew members were wounded.

The Pueblo was boarded and taken ashore where the crew was bound and blindfolded and transported to Pyongyang, where they were charged with spying within North Korea’s 12-mile territorial limit and imprisoned.

The United States maintained that the Pueblo had been in international waters and demanded the release of the captive sailors, but President Lyndon Johnson ordered no direct retaliation, but the United States began a military buildup in the area. North Korean authorities, coerced a confession and apology out of Pueblo commander Bucher, in which he stated, “I will never again be a party to any disgraceful act of aggression of this type.” The rest of the crew also signed a confession under threat of torture.

The prisoners were forced to study propaganda materials and beaten for straying from the compound’s strict rules. In August, the North Koreans staged a phony news conference in which the prisoners were to praise their humane treatment, but the Americans thwarted the Koreans by inserting innuendoes and sarcastic language into their statements. Some prisoners also rebelled in photo shoots by casually sticking out their middle finger; a gesture that their captors didn’t understand. Later, the North Koreans beat the Americans for a week.

On December 23, 1968, 11 months after the Pueblo‘s capture, U.S. and North Korean negotiators reached a settlement to resolve the crisis. Under the settlement’s terms, the United States admitted the ship’s intrusion into North Korean territory, apologized for the action, and pledged to cease any future such action.

That day, the surviving 82 crewmen walked one by one across the “Bridge of No Return” at Panmunjon to freedom in South Korea. Commander Bucher, who was a decorated Navy Commander in World War 11 , Korea and Vietnam, but suffered ignominy for his apology, died in January 2004.

The Mirage of a United Europe An idea hatched by its most advanced minds is now what Europe has to find its way past, if it can. by Wilfred McClay

Daniel Johnson’s question—“Does Europe Have a Future?”—appears increasingly to be the question of the hour. Of course, it has been asked before, and many times over. The specter of European failure has been our civilization’s constant companion for a century or more, certainly at least since the horrors of World War I. Yet in our own historical moment the question seems to have achieved a kind of ripeness in a Europe that looks too exhausted either to reproduce or to defend itself.

Still, much depends upon what one means by “Europe.” Is it the ambitious but fraught project of welding the continent into a fluid, borderless, ever more tightly unified economic, political, and cultural union, held together by an abstract invented supranational identity, a common currency adorned with generic secular symbols, and the tentacles of a vast administrative magistracy headquartered in Brussels, and intended to serve as a disinterested substitute for obsolete historical conventions or customs? That is one thing.

Or does “Europe” refer to a certain rich, complex way of life, along with the values and institutions and forms of consciousness that have made that way of life possible: free and self-governing institutions, constitutionally limited governments, prosperity-generating economies, equality before the law, protection of fundamental human rights, freedom of expression and of rational inquiry and imagination, recognition of the dignity of the individual person, a high regard for criticism and self-criticism, and a glorious and cosmopolitan heritage of ideas, stories, artifacts, sciences, languages, faiths, cuisines, literatures, historical consciousnesses, and arguments, all laid out before its heirs as if on a single vast table stretching from antiquity to tomorrow? That is something else again.

The two meanings of “Europe” are obviously closely related, but they are by no means the same, and it is a grave error to conflate them. In fact, the first, newer understanding of “Europe”—the one encapsulated in the initials EU—has in the end necessarily come about at the expense of the second, older one, and the two have inevitably become antithetical. It should by now be evident why this is so. The deep rationale for the EU project lay in a particular conception of the lessons of modern European history—namely, that the very existence of the modern nation-state was to blame for the rivalries and savage wars that in the 20th century wreaked such havoc upon the European continent and much of the rest of the world.

This very influential but very flawed simplification, as Daniel Johnson rightly notes, has never received the searching criticism and correction it deserves. But even if the nation-state’s inherent menace could be made plausible and demonstrable, it would still fail by miles to take the measure of the lost benefits that have ensued from the consequent decision to disregard national polities and cultures and to abandon the forms of sovereignty and the institutions of self-rule that have been essential to the perpetuation of such nations.

The current migration crisis has been a startling reminder of those ignored tradeoffs. Such a crisis could not have occurred without the weakening of the nation-state imposed by the postwar order. Indeed, the crisis has already forced a de-facto flight from the “Schengen” ideal of a borderless Europe, and in at least some quarters seems to be bringing on an uneasy recognition that there may be no workable substitute for the particularisms inherent in l’Europe des patries (the Europe of nations, in the Gaullist formulation cited by Johnson): an older way of understanding and mapping Europe that is more in accord with the shape of human sentiment. Is it really so surprising that Europeans, qua Europeans, are not convinced they are prepared to defend Europe, qua Europe? Or that a steadily growing number of Germans, qua Germans, are mad as hell about the transformation of their culture being imposed upon them by their guilt-ridden elite leaders, and are determined to stop it?

The Obama Administration Races to Finalize a Bad Nuclear Deal by Fred Fleitz

Despite the victory lap President Obama took in last night’s State of the Union address on his nuclear diplomacy with Iran, Democrats and Republicans are worried about Iran’s increasingly belligerent behavior and the Obama administration’s refusal to do anything about it.

This concern was worsened yesterday by Iran’s reported “temporary” seizure of two small U.S. Navy ships and their crews yesterday, an issue that the president did not address in his speech. Iran released the ships and their crews early today after the U.S. government apologized for their accidental straying into Iranian waters.

The president said the nuclear deal with Iran (the July 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) is a great success, and that Iran has complied with its agreement to roll back its nuclear program by sending enriched uranium out of the country and disassembling centrifuges.

Mr. Obama’s remarks tracked with similar statements by Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian president Hassan Rouhani that Iran has met the requirements for “Implementation Day,” an important benchmark of the nuclear agreement when most sanctions against Iran worth up to $150 billion will be lifted. According to Kerry and Rouhani, the U.S. could lift sanctions in a few days.

For Iran to reach Implementation Day, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) must verify that Iran has taken a series of steps to roll back its nuclear program. These include disassembling and storing all but about 6,000 uranium-enrichment centrifuges, diluting or sending out of the country all but 300 kg of enriched uranium in exchange for an equivalent amount of uranium ore, and removing the core of the Arak heavy-water reactor. This reactor is to be redesigned with Chinese assistance so that it will produce less plutonium than its original design.

There are some uncertainties that Iran has reached the Implementation Day requirements. First, the IAEA has not yet verified Iran’s actions.

Second, there are discrepancies in figures cited on how much enriched uranium Iran has sent out of the country. Kerry said over 25,000 pounds. An Iranian official said 8.5 metric tons, which equals 18,740 pounds. Further complicating this, the IAEA said in a November report that Iran had 12,639 kg of enriched uranium, equivalent to 27,864 pounds.