Populist Parties Are Rising because Mainstream Conservatives Have Failed By John O’Sullivan

Political realignments are long in gestation, face huge obstacles to their achievement, and are easy to divert or subvert. All mainstream parties have needed to do is offer some modest concessions to the forces of discontent and they dissipate. Ross Perot’s support evaporated when Newt Gingrich and Bill Clinton (in that order) got control of spending and undercut Perot’s signature issue: the runaway budget deficit. Perot shrank faster than the deficit. That little episode explains why American third parties are known as the wasps of political history: They sting and they die.

So why are realignments suddenly galloping to fruition throughout the Western world?

The Economist magazine has no doubts on the matter. (Does it ever?) Anti-immigrant populist parties are exploiting fear, mostly about the current surge of migrants into Europe, to rise in the polls. The British magazine brings together Donald Trump, France’s Marine Le Pen, and Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban on a sinister sepia-tinted cover to illustrate the dark threat of “populism.” The Economist has finally found a moral panic it likes.

Alas, the magazine’s explanation is too simple by half.

Russian Imperialism Meets Illusions of Ottoman Grandeur by Burak Bekdil

Earlier in 2015, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that he found it difficult to understand what Russia was doing in Syria, since “it does not even border Syria.”

By that logic, Turkey should not be “doing anything” in the Palestinian territories, Somalia, Egypt, Pakistan, Afghanistan or any of the non-bordering lands into which its neo-Ottoman impulses have pushed it.

In a 2012 speech, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, then foreign minister, predicted that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s days in power were numbered and that he would depart “within months or weeks.” Almost three and a half years have passed, with Assad still in power, and Davutoglu keeps on making one passionate speech after another about the fate of Syria.

Turkey’s failure to devise a credible policy on Syria has made the country’s leaders nervous. Both Davutoglu and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have lately resorted to more aggressive, but less convincing, rhetoric on Syria. The new rhetoric features many aspects of a Sunni Islamist thinking blended with illusions of Ottoman grandeur.

On December 22, Davutoglu said, “Syrian soil is not, and will not be, part of Russia’s imperialistic goals.” That was a relief to know! All the same, Davutoglu could have been more direct and honest if he said that: “Syrian soil will not be part of Russia’s imperialistic goals because we want it to be part of Turkey’s pro-Sunni, neo-Ottoman imperialistic goals.”

The Islamization of Britain in 2015 Sex Crimes, Jihadimania and “Protection Tax” by Soeren Kern

Hospitals across Britain are dealing with at least 15 new cases of female genital mutilation (FGM) every day. Although FGM has been illegal in Britain since 1984, there has not been a single conviction.

At least 1,400 children were sexually exploited between 1997 and 2013 in the town of Rotherham, mostly by Muslim gangs, but police and municipal officials failed to tackle the problem because they feared being branded “racist” or “Islamophobic.”

Reverend Giles Goddard, vicar of St John’s in Waterloo, central London, allowed a full Muslim prayer service to be held in his church. He also asked his congregation to praise “the God that we love, Allah.”

There has been a 60% increase in child sexual abuse reported to the police over the past four years, according to official figures.

British intelligence are monitoring more than 3,000 homegrown Islamist extremists willing to carry out attacks in Britain.

A Muslim worker at a nuclear power plant in West Kilbride, Scotland, was removed from the premises after he was caught studying bomb-making materials while on the job.

“We try to avoid describing anyone as a terrorist or an act as being terrorist.” – Tarik Kafala, the head of BBC Arabic.

The Muslim population of Britain surpassed 3.5 million in 2015 to become around 5.5% of the overall population of 64 million, according to figures extrapolated from a recent study on the growth of the Muslim population in Europe. In real terms, Britain has the third-largest Muslim population in the European Union, after France, then Germany.

2015-in-Review: Desperately Seeking U.S. Foreign Policy Triumphs By Claudia Rosett

It sounds like a simple assignment: list 10 U.S. foreign policy triumphs of 2015. OK, make that five. Can we maybe find three? Two? After all, President Obama has pivoted to foreign policy as the centerpiece of his second term, and Secretary of State John Kerry has logged a gazillion miles of diplomatic travel, punctuated by marathon talks, capped by “historic” deals. So, how’s that working out?

As it turns out, there’s no need to make your own list. The State Department has assembled one for us, posted on State’s blog by spokesman John Kirby. Actually, State posted it and first sent it out by email on Dec. 24. Apparently someone thought it needed more attention; State re-sent it yesterday.

As Kirby explains it, the list was inspired by a note-to-staff from Kerry, “summing up a busy year and charting the course ahead.” That led Kirby to draw up his list, to which he added the gimmick of “a great hashtag — which was recently trending on Twitter” — #2015in5words (as it happens, this hashtag has chiefly become a magnet for five-word comic variations on 2015 being the year in which “everyone was offended by everything” — but never mind).

Thus do we have State’s self-laudatory list of “The Year-in-Review: Pivotal Foreign Policy Moments of 2015.” Each moment is summed up in five words with an accompanying paragraph and video clip, meant to show “significant success across a range of issues.”

Actually, what most of this list suggests, to interpret it kindly, is that the State Department has decamped from Planet Earth and is by now operating in an alternate universe. This is alarming because the rest of us are pretty much stuck with the real-world fallout.

This Is What Happens When BDS Infiltrates Social Causes That Have Nothing to Do With Israel By Jared Samilow

From Israel’s rag Al Ha’aretz courtesy of Daphne Anson http://daphneanson.blogspot.com/

As infrequently happens, a great article in Israeli newspaper Ha’aretz that actually supports Israel rather than denigrating it.

This one is by a freshman at Ivy League institution Brown University in Providence, Rhode Island, who observes:

The movement is successfully convincing activists that one cannot fight for women’s rights, academic freedom or against racism without acknowledging Israel’s oppression of Palestinians. This poses a problem for liberal American Jews more than anyone else.

‘…. Anti-Israel circles understand that their cause isn’t even on the radar of the average college student. By hitching their wagon to issues with greater popular appeal, pro-Palestinian activists seek to expand their tent and build a coalition larger than the handful of students fanatic enough to spend their college years slandering Israel.

Ironically, this disturbing phenomenon is hardest not on conservative-leaning Jewish students, but on left-wing Jewish activists who don’t support BDS. Social justice work is increasingly seen as a “package,” and one cannot be for racial justice, gender equality or humanitarianism without also swearing allegiance to the cult of Israel-despisers.

Left-wing Jews hew to the same social vision as the progressive community – but Israel and BDS are thorns for those who still believe in Zionism….

This discomfort is particularly dangerous because left-leaning young Jews are a weak link in the American-Jewish community’s relationship with Israel. As any exit poll can tell you, American-Jews do not, on the whole, vote based on Israel. American Jews vote for candidates who share their liberal social values. Thus, liberalism trumps pro-Israelism for most secular Jews. What will be when liberal Jewish students are forced to choose between their allegiance to Israel and their commitment to social justice? What will happen when not supporting BDS is seen as a fatal tribal weakness? The answer should frighten anybody concerned with the future of the Diaspora’s relationship with Israel.’

Pete Mulherin: Fighting ISIS, Grappling With Islam

Whether or not violent Islamists represent the ‘true’ Islam is beside the point: they kill and die believing that they do. Logic decrees that the key weapons will never be cruise missiles and drones. Rather, the most potent strategy hangs on a keen and clear-minded willingness to understand what motivates such actions and goals
The recent recapture of Ramadi, Iraq, from the Islamic State is a welcome development to emerge from a region not known for good news. The withdrawal of ISIS fighters displays the jihadists’ military weakness in the face of the American-backed Iraqi national forces. Before pats on the collective back of the anti-IS alliance are shared, however, we need to pause and consider the nature of the threat before us.

The fascination with the Islamic State’s gruesome tactics has meant that the ideological foundations of the caliphate have been underestimated. World leaders might claim a victory against ISIS in the months to come, but this will be a limited triumph; the repercussions of the caliphate will be felt for decades.

The Islamic State was never going to be a conventional army for long, considering the overwhelming firepower facing it. Its ability to capture and control entire cities, a powerful propaganda tool, could not last and the current rolling back of its territory is not surprising. The jihadists’ use of heavy weapons and armed convoys will lessen as they sustain further losses under bombardment from Russia, and the US and its allies in Iraq and Syria.

Iran fires rockets close to US carrier By Rick Moran

Iranian naval vessels approached to within 1,500 yards of the U.S. aircraft carrier USS Truman and fired several unguided rockets, according to sources at the Pentagon.

The official characterized the incident as “certainly unnecessarily provocative.” We could add “deliberately so.”

The Hill:

At around 10:36 a.m., several Iranian navy vessels approached the Truman, as well as other coalition and merchant vessels, the official said.

“They were observed quickly approaching their location as they transited the Strait of Hormuz into the Arabian Gulf,” said the official.

At 10:45 a.m., Iran warned of a “previously unannounced live-fire exercise over maritime radio and requested for nearby vessels to remain clear,” the official added.

Approximately 40 minutes later, the exercise warnings were repeated, and the ships started to launch the rockets, the official said.

It is unclear how many rockets were fired, the official said; however, they were fired in a direction away from the passing commercial and coalition ships. The ships departed after firing the rockets.

The Truman is the first U.S. aircraft carrier to enter the Gulf, after the USS Theodore Roosevelt left in October, leaving a U.S. carrier gap of several months. The U.S. has maintained a carrier presence in the Gulf for decades, even keeping two carriers there at the same time to support the Iraq and Afghanistan Wars.

When the Roosevelt left the Gulf in early October, Iran conducted a ballistic missile test.

Cheaters Sometimes Prosper After a life of scams, wild reversals and arrests, Rice dedicated his memoir to ‘the American Sucker.’ By Edward Chancellor

America was born a land of speculators and opportunists. People have constantly moved across its great land mass in pursuit of the better life. But there’s a catch. A country of drifters and dreamers has provided rich pickings for grifters and con men. Not surprisingly, they crop up in countless American novels, plays and films, from Melville’s 1857 “The Confidence-Man” to “The Sting” (1973), a movie that was set in the 1930s, toward the end of what T.D. Thornton calls the “golden age of the con artist.” With “My Adventures With Your Money,” Mr. Thornton offers up a hugely entertaining biography of one such “artist.”

In an essay called “Diddling,” Edgar Allan Poe described confidence man as a “compound of which the ingredients are minuteness, interest, perseverance, ingenuity, audacity, nonchalance, originality, impertinence, and grin.” George Graham Rice, the anti-hero of Mr. Thornton’s book, had an abundance of “grin,” or what a later age would call chutzpah. A 1934 profile of him by the journalist A.J. Liebling described him as “contagiously optimistic,” with a “phosphorescent smile.” The title of Mr. Thorton’s book-length profile is taken from Rice’s own 1913 memoir, originally dedicated in a memorable way: “To the American Damphool Speculator, surnamed the American Sucker, otherwise described herein as The Thinker Who Thinks He Knows But Doesn’t—greetings! This book is for you! Read as you run, and may you run as you read.”
My Adventures With Your Money

By T.D. Thornton
St. Martin’s, 320 pages, $27.99

Jacob Herzig was born in 1870, the son of well-to-do Jewish immigrants in New York’s Lower East Side. As a young man, he stole money from the family’s furrier business. Sent to a reformatory, he befriended an elderly con, Willie Graham Rice, whose name he appropriated. For the next 40 years, his life was a whir of scams, fortunes quickly made and lost, and run-ins with the authorities.

Disarming the Navy Through Bureaucratic Bloat Too few ships on longer deployments is sapping the service, even as the civilian staff has hugely expanded. By John Lehman

Mr. Lehman was secretary of the Navy in the Reagan administration and a member of the 9/11 Commission.

The U.S. Navy, with 280 ships, is now far too small to effectively protect this country’s vital interests in the Pacific, Atlantic, Mediterranean, Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea. Yet on Dec. 14 Defense Secretary Ash Carter ordered the Navy to cut additional ships it was planning to build and instead to buy more missiles and airplanes.

The shortage of missiles, torpedoes and spare parts that concerns Mr. Carter is real. But by not rebuilding the fleet, the Obama administration is repeating the blunders of the 1970s—sending sailors and their too few ships on much longer deployments, now trending toward eight and 10 months instead of six. In response, the most experienced sailors and their families, as in the ’70s, are starting to leave the Navy, worsening the other corrosive result of longer deployments: ships and airplanes that break down from a lack of skilled maintenance. The Persian Gulf was recently left without a carrier for two months.

Is the solution to the problem simply a significant increase in the defense budget? No. The source of the problem is not primarily the amount of money, but how that money is spent, or misspent, by the military bureaucracy.

Following the Migrant Money Trail People-smuggling trade depends on hawala transfers—largely with no paper trail and often outside the law; new attention on terror financing By Giovanni Legorano and Joe Parkinson

ISTANBUL—Behind the reinforced door of an unmarked office in this teeming immigrant neighborhood, a man who goes by the name of Hawez Zaman moves money the same way his predecessors in the Middle Ages did, in an off-the-books transfer system critical to today’s spiraling migrant crisis in Europe.
The centuries-old system known as hawala enables users to transfer money from one point to another entirely on the basis of trust—largely without a paper trail and often outside the law. It is the dominant way migrants flooding into Europe pay for their journeys, used for 90% of the transactions in a people-smuggling trade valued at around $2.5 billion a year in Europe, according to European security officials and researchers. It is used for a further $390 billion a year migrants send back home as part of an informal but widely accepted financial system used across the developing world.
The money flows are also drawing renewed attention among terrorist finance investigators, who since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks have tried to monitor hawala systems. They are concerned that some of the same hawala systems flourishing from the business of moving migrants could also be tapped by would-be attackers as a source of financing.
“Given what we’ve seen so far, we have very strong suspicions terrorists receive money via hawala,” said Calogero Ferrara, a Palermo-based prosecutor heading a large pan-European people-smuggling investigation. “After the Paris attacks, we have intensified investigations on this front.”