From the Baltic to the Middle East the threats are rising, yet across the Anglosphere defence budgets are slashed and a blind eye turned to perils that range from Russian adventurism to Islamic aggression. Never have so many been protected by so few.
Many in the British defence establishment and private think-tanks were dismayed when David Cameron’s coalition government, despite international turbulence, cut Britain’s army from 100,000 to 82,000 men, its smallest size since before the Napoleonic wars. More recently, in the face of obvious international instability, Cameron has announced defence spending will be increased to the agreed Nato minimum of 2 per cent of GDP over the next few years. It appears to be a U-turn away from a policy of steady and increasingly dangerous defence cuts.
This will be welcome news, as far as it goes, to the many senior figures in the defence establishment and the many retired senior officers of all three services who have been warning with increasing urgency over the last few years about the parlous state of Britain’s armed forces. Further, a new Strategic Defence and Security Review (SDSR) has been promised for this year.
However, the conservative Bow Group, a think-tank with some highly qualified members, has recently made the point that simply budgeting towards an arbitrary figure does not necessarily mean that the spending priorities will be right. It calls for an extended and less hasty review that takes full consideration of the range of inputs needed. It argues that the SDSR should be sufficiently resourced to give due consideration to the UK’s national objectives, operational sovereignty, and the views of industry and major allies. This could enhance the UK’s international standing and security. Otherwise the promised increase may not be as good as it looks.