https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3939238-as-recession-looms-who-will-biden-blame/
It’s the economy, stupid.
Those famous words from Democratic strategist James Carville must be haunting President Biden’s White House as the economy begins to slow — and just as the 2024 election moves into view.
Most recently, the job market appears to be faltering, with March gains pegged at 236,000, way down from February’s 311,000 and the 334,000 recorded on average over the past six months.
This is challenging for Biden, who hopes to run for reelection and has relied on solid employment gains to prove that his “economic plan is working.” It’s been a tough sell, seeing that inflation has caused real wages to decline for two years in a row; writing last fall, the Dallas Fed noted that the hit from inflation was “the most severe faced by employed workers over the past 25 years.”
Biden’s approval ratings on the economy, according to Real Clear Politics’ average of polls, is a disastrous 37 percent.
Of course, the downturn in growth – we are not yet in recession – has been engineered by and will be welcomed by the Federal Reserve, which slammed on the brakes a year ago as inflation soared to 40-year highs. Having dithered for more than a year as price increases gained steam, Chair Jerome Powell then jacked up rates at a historically aggressive pace and has also been reducing the size of the Fed balance sheet.