A version of this column will be published at http://yeoldecrabb.com/ on Monday, Feb. 24, 2014.
A world ablaze but different fuels
A bane of modern military studies [lets eschew science] is the concept of counter-insurgency the idea that indigenous revolts around the world can be analyzed with the scientific method and a set of general principles if implemented could cure the problem. Common sense tells us that the essence of any dissidence/armed insurrection is its particularity, its basis in specific local conditions. They differ not only in geography but in the characteristics of individual societies. So, yes, the army should not steal the peasants chickens is a good maxim but such bromides do not go far to tell you how to prevent civil war.
At the moment, we have one bitter internecine war in Syria, and three incipient revolts between two or more elements in Ukraine, Venezuela and Thailand. Other conflicts, even messier to define, are growing in the Central African Republic and Nigeria.
The question, of course, is whether there anything that connects all these conflicts? And, if so, what if anything can be done to lessen tension and conflict?
Ukraine
The ambivalence between Ukraine and Russia is as old as the two peoples. In fact, it was from centers in what is now Ukraine that Christianity spread to the Great Russians and where they even got their name. More recently, Ukrainians have suffered disproportionately in the Soviet Union a bitter irony, often at the hands of ethnic Ukrainian members of the Communist hierarchy. Stalins man-made famine of the 1930s followed on to the horrors of those of World War I when the engineer Herbert Hoover first emerged on the world scene. But a flame of Ukrainian identity survived, expressing itself at the height of Soviet repression in such small protests as citizens of Ukraines western metropolis, the old Hapsburg city of Lviv [Lvov, Lemberg] unofficially using our time [Central European] rather than Moscows time zone to express their identification with the West..